Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the fluctuating global trade situation and its impact on market sentiment, particularly focusing on the potential movement of gold prices towards 3350 [1] Group 1: Global Trade Situation - The current global trade environment is characterized by uncertainty, leading to volatile market reactions [1] - Market sentiment is heavily influenced by ongoing trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - There is speculation regarding gold prices potentially reaching 3350, indicating a significant shift in investor behavior [1] - The analysis suggests that gold may serve as a safe haven amid the prevailing trade uncertainties [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent gold price experienced fluctuations, with a peak at $3338 before a decline, indicating a strong resistance level at $3339, suggesting a continuation of bearish trends if not surpassed [2][3][5] - The geopolitical tensions between the US and China have eased, which traditionally supports gold prices; however, this reduction in tension has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][5] - Current trading strategies recommend focusing on short positions during rebounds, with key resistance levels identified at $3345-$3355 and support levels at $3310-$3300 [5][3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have seen a slight increase, with Brent crude reaching $67.16 and WTI at $65.42, driven by expectations of positive outcomes from US-China trade negotiations [6][7] - The market is currently influenced by multiple factors, including potential supply surplus due to increased Iranian exports and OPEC's production strategies, which could suppress oil prices in the latter half of the year [6] - Technical analysis indicates a potential upward trend if oil prices break through resistance levels, with short-term strategies suggesting selling on rebounds and buying on dips, focusing on resistance at $66.5-$67.0 and support at $64.0-$63.5 [7][6]

Group 1 - RBC Capital Markets analysts noted that copper inflow into the U.S. has supported a price surge of approximately 11% since early 2025, outperforming global copper prices [1] - North American copper stocks have risen about 9% year-to-date, with Capstone Mining Corp and HudBay Minerals identified as the most favored stocks in the sector [1] - The announcement of a potential investigation into new tariffs on copper imports by President Trump in February has contributed to the increase in copper prices, as copper is essential for various products from electric vehicles to power grids [1] Group 2 - The U.S. copper imports totaled over 123,000 tons in March, significantly higher than 58,000 tons in February and 76,000 tons in January [1] - RBC strategists indicated signs of weakening demand and supply for copper, suggesting that if tariffs are not continued, it could act as a negative catalyst for prices [1] - Short-term risks to copper prices are highlighted due to the potential continuation of Trump's aggressive trade agenda and a slowdown in the construction industry during the summer [2]

Group 1 - The global trade situation remains uncertain, with markets awaiting clearer prospects [1] - There is speculation on whether gold prices could rise to 3400 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden drop in Hong Kong and A50 indices is attributed to multiple factors, including the reintroduction of U.S. steel tariffs, a general decline in the Asia-Pacific stock market, and warnings from Morgan Stanley regarding the U.S. dollar and economic conditions [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Hong Kong stock market and A50 index experienced significant declines, with Hong Kong's drop exceeding 2.5% [1]. - The overall sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region was negative, with major indices like the Hang Seng Tech Index and the National Enterprises Index falling nearly 3% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The reintroduction of U.S. tariffs on steel has raised concerns about global trade dynamics, contributing to market volatility [1]. - Morgan Stanley's report indicated potential weakness in the U.S. dollar due to interest rate cuts and sluggish economic growth, adding to market uncertainty [5]. - The presence of short-selling activities intensified the market's downward trend, as there were no substantial positive developments during the holiday period [5]. Group 3: Outlook for A-shares - A-shares are expected to open lower due to the negative sentiment from the Hong Kong and A50 declines, but a significant drop is not anticipated [7]. - Despite the expected weak performance, there may be support from mysterious funds aimed at stabilizing the market and preventing excessive declines [7]. - Positive influences from the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, such as the central bank's 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operations, could provide support for A-shares [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, aluminum price rebound sustainability remains to be seen, nickel is expected to show a weak shock, and tin price volatility is expected to increase [1][2][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Base Metals Copper - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai copper rose 0.08% to 78,090 yuan/ton. The easing of global trade tensions makes the copper price return to the fundamental logic. The TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, and the subsequent output of smelters may decline. The consumption is stable but the high monthly spread restricts it. Technically, it runs between 74,500 - 80,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 78,500 yuan [1] Aluminum - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 1.27% to 20,005 yuan/ton. Bauxite supply increases and prices decline. Alumina production capacity decreases, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity increases. The downstream开工 rate has a weakening expectation. The aluminum price rebounds, but the sustainability needs to be observed [2] Nickel - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai nickel fell 1.52% to 123,860 yuan/ton. The inflation cools down, and the domestic manufacturing PMI declines. The nickel ore price is firm, the refined nickel is in surplus, the nickel - iron has support but is also in surplus, and the stainless - steel is in the off - season. The cost of nickel sulfate rises, but the demand is weak. It is expected to run weakly [3][5] Tin - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai tin rose 0.37% to 262,070 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin output may decrease, and the import of tin concentrates decreases. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The tin ore supply is tight, and the mine has a strong resumption expectation. The price volatility is expected to increase, and the operation range is 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - The domestic spot copper price falls. After the copper price rises, the downstream's willingness to receive goods decreases, and the actual transaction activity is limited [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum price rises. The holders' willingness to sell is slow at first, but the high price stimulates some profit - taking. The downstream only makes purchases at low prices, and the overall transaction is dull [8] Alumina - The spot price of alumina rises slightly. The transaction in the spot market becomes dull, and the downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises make rigid purchases [9] Zinc - The spot zinc price falls. The activity in the spot trading market decreases, and the downstream users adopt a price - pressing and quantity - limiting strategy [10] Lead - The spot lead price remains unchanged. The downstream maintains rigid purchases and sales [11] Nickel - The spot nickel price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases at low prices, and the inquiry enthusiasm increases [12] Tin - The spot tin price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases, and the overall transaction activity is stable [13] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - For SHFE, copper, lead, and nickel futures warehouse receipts increase, while aluminum, zinc, and tin futures warehouse receipts decrease. For LME, copper, zinc, and aluminum inventories decrease, while lead, nickel inventories increase, and tin inventory remains unchanged [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The start of Sino-US economic and trade talks eased the tense situation, and the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The Fed's hawkish stance delayed interest rate cuts, slightly boosting the US dollar. The negative effects of tariff shocks on the global economy gradually emerged, hindering the upward movement of copper prices. However, the shortage of refined copper overseas provided strong fundamental support. Domestically, a package of financial incremental policies by the central bank boosted market confidence, and China's acceleration of the domestic economic cycle and the construction of a strategic cooperation system with "Belt and Road" countries will effectively offset the negative impact of US tariffs [2][8]. - Overall, the Sino-US economic and trade meeting achieved substantial progress and reached important consensus, and the two sides will issue a joint statement soon. The Fed maintains a hawkish stance and delays interest rate cuts, and the unexpected recovery of the eurozone economy will continue to be loose. Domestically, the central bank has launched a package of financial incremental policy combinations to stabilize market confidence. Fundamentally, the medium-term tightening pattern of concentrates remains unchanged, the supply of imported refined copper in China is tight, the premium of Yangshan warehouse receipts is high, and social inventories continue to decline. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile at a high level, waiting for the details of the Sino-US trade negotiations to be disclosed [3][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - LME copper rose from $9,125.50/ton on April 30 to $9,439.00/ton on May 9, an increase of $313.50 or 3.44% [4]. - COMEX copper rose from 461 cents/pound on April 30 to 465.4 cents/pound on May 9, an increase of 4.4 cents or 0.95% [4]. - SHFE copper rose from 77,220 yuan/ton on April 30 to 77,450 yuan/ton on May 9, an increase of 230 yuan or 0.30% [4]. - International copper rose from 68,470 yuan/ton on April 30 to 68,750 yuan/ton on May 9, an increase of 280 yuan or 0.41% [4]. - The Shanghai-London ratio decreased from 8.46 to 8.21 [4]. - The LME spot premium changed from -$6.80/ton on April 30 to $49.19/ton on May 9, an increase of $55.99 or -823.38% [4]. - The Shanghai spot premium decreased from 230 yuan/ton on April 30 to 80 yuan/ton on May 9, a decrease of 150 yuan [4]. - LME inventory decreased from 200,150 tons on April 30 to 191,775 tons on May 9, a decrease of 8,375 tons or 4.18% [7]. - COMEX inventory increased from 144,023 short tons on April 30 to 160,250 short tons on May 9, an increase of 16,227 short tons or 11.27% [7]. - SHFE inventory decreased from 89,289 tons on April 30 to 80,687 tons on May 9, a decrease of 8,602 tons or 9.63% [7]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased from 93,500 tons on April 30 to 90,500 tons on May 9, a decrease of 3,000 tons or 3.21% [7]. - Total inventory decreased from 526,962 tons on April 30 to 523,212 tons on May 9, a decrease of 3,750 tons or 0.71% [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices fluctuated at a high level last week. The start of Sino-US economic and trade talks eased the tense situation, and the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The Fed's hawkish stance delayed interest rate cuts, slightly boosting the US dollar. The negative effects of tariff shocks on the global economy gradually emerged, hindering the upward movement of copper prices. However, the shortage of refined copper overseas provided strong fundamental support. Domestically, a package of financial incremental policies by the central bank boosted market confidence, and China's acceleration of the domestic economic cycle and the construction of a strategic cooperation system with "Belt and Road" countries will effectively offset the negative impact of US tariffs [2][8]. - As of May 9, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 523,000 tons, and the global inventory decreased slightly. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the LME 0 - 3 shifted to a B structure, with the proportion of cancelled warrants continuing to rise to 43.1%. SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 8,000 tons, showing obvious characteristics of the consumption peak season. Bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons. Last week, the Yangshan copper bill of lading premium rose to $110, reaching a two-year high. The COMEX US copper premium narrowed to $600 - 800/ton, but overseas deliverable supplies continued to flow into North America, causing the COMEX visible inventory to rise to 160,000 tons at a high level. The Shanghai-London ratio decreased to 8.21 mainly due to the recent significant appreciation of the RMB [8]. - Sino-US economic and trade high-level meetings are imminent. The global trade situation is gradually easing and moving in a favorable direction. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5% in its May meeting, and Powell said that there is no need to rush to cut interest rates. Domestically, the central bank cut the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.1% to 1.4% in early May, cut the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5%, and is expected to release about 1 trillion yuan of medium- and long-term liquidity into the market. The central bank also announced a series of other financial policies to boost the confidence of China's capital market [10]. - This week, the spot TC widened to -$43/ton. The global mine end's medium-term tightening pattern remains unchanged. In terms of refined copper, China's refined copper output in April was 1.126 million tons, continuing to rise month-on-month, but the imported supplies were scarce in early May. From the demand side, power grid investment projects have started one after another, and the operating rate of cable enterprises in April rebounded to 81.3%. The new energy vehicle production and sales growth rate exceeded 40%, and the traditional industry showed peak season characteristics. The domestic social inventory continued to decline significantly to around 12 tons, and the near-month contract on the disk maintained a large B structure [11]. 3.3 Industry News - First Quantum's copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 99,700 tons, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. Its 2025 copper guidance production is 380,000 - 440,000 tons (excluding the resumption of production of the Panama copper mine). The Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia had a copper production of 46,500 tons in the first quarter, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3%. The Kansanshi smelter plans to carry out a six-week maintenance shutdown in the second quarter of 2025. The SENTINEL copper mine in Zambia had a copper production of 46,400 tons in the first quarter, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18%. The mine plans to carry out a four-day comprehensive maintenance shutdown in the second quarter of 2025 [13]. - Teck Resources' copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 106,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.1%. The Highland Valley project in Canada had a copper production of 29,500 tons in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.4%. The QBII project in Chile had a copper production of 42,000 tons in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 27.1%. The production in this quarter was affected by an 18-day shutdown in January and a power outage in late February [14]. - According to Mysteel research data, last week, the processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 500 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous week. After the holiday, the downstream replenishment willingness slowed down after the high-level fluctuation of copper prices, and the terminal orders were mainly for rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the operation of China's refined copper rod enterprises will continue to recover in mid-May [15]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, SHFE and bonded area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, SHFE copper basis trend, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][19][20].

Group 1: Market Trends - LME three-month copper prices fell significantly in early April, dropping 11% in the first two weeks, erasing all gains for the year, with a low of $8,613 per ton on April 9 [2] - Copper prices rebounded in the following weeks due to U.S. tariff exemptions on certain electronic imports and a significant decline in the dollar [3] Group 2: Exports - Chile, the largest copper exporter, shipped 93,909 tons of copper to the U.S. in the first two months of 2025, a 53% increase year-on-year, as traders aimed to avoid potential import tariffs [3] - China's refined copper exports surged 156% year-on-year in Q1, reaching 117,491 tons [4] Group 3: Imports - China's refined copper imports in March 2025 totaled 354,275.469 tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.11% and a year-on-year increase of 11.80%, with significant increases from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Russia [5] - U.S. refined copper imports rose 43% year-on-year in February to 58,326 tons, with shipments from Chile increasing by 53% [6] Group 4: Consumption - Global refined copper consumption is estimated to have increased by 9% year-on-year in February, driven by demand recovery in major consuming countries [7] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for March was reported at 51.2, up 0.4 points from February, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities [8] Group 5: Production - Global refined copper production is expected to grow by 9% in the first two months of the year [10] - Codelco's copper production in Chile declined for the second consecutive month, with February output down 6% year-on-year to 98,100 tons, attributed to operational disruptions at key mines [10] - In contrast, BHP's Escondida mine saw a 16% year-on-year increase in production in February, reaching 113,400 tons [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global recession expectation has cooled down due to the postponement of tariffs, but the geopolitical situation will become more complex in the medium and long term. The A - share market is expected to show a structural market with a stable index and style differentiation, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. - Precious metals prices may rebound in the short term due to the volatile tariff policies, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high of gold prices and the US March CPI data [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term as the global trade war enters a period of easing negotiations and the risk appetite of the global market has significantly recovered [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize as the market risk sentiment is released, and the overall supply - demand situation is still good, but attention should be paid to further tariff trends [8][9][10]. - Alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation as the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved, but there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter [11]. - Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity as the short - term market risk is quickly released with the loosening of Trump's tariff policy [12]. - Lead prices are expected to follow the London lead to stabilize and repair as the tariff risk eases [13]. - Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level as the global trade situation concern eases, and the tight pattern of tin mines in the second quarter is difficult to change [14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation as the peak - season demand is weak and the high inventory drags down the spot market [16]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate as the cost - support logic still exists although the fundamental outlook is bearish [17][18]. - Nickel prices are expected to be strong as the cost - increase logic of the increase in Indonesia's mineral royalty is about to be realized [18]. - Crude oil prices are mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but due to the volatile tariff policy, it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment eases and the fundamentals change little, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern [20]. - Iron ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment recovers and the supply - demand relationship changes little [21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate as the panic sentiment eases and the market may return to the fundamentals [22][23]. - Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize as the oil price rises significantly from the low level and the market sentiment warms up [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most economies, but still imposed a 10% global tariff during the negotiation period, and raised the tariff on China to 125%. The "global recession expectation" has cooled down significantly, and risk assets have risen sharply [2]. - Domestic: China has raised the tariff on the US, and the policy of "counter - measures against foreign countries and stabilizing growth and expectations at home" has become the main line. The A - share market has rebounded with the support of liquidity, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - International precious - metal futures prices rose significantly on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, attracting safe - haven funds and supporting precious - metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June is 72%. Precious - metal prices may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the US March CPI data [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened low and moved high on Wednesday, and the London copper rebounded. The global trade war has entered a period of easing negotiations, and the market risk preference has increased. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in May is 76%. Codelco is optimistic about the long - term copper demand, and copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed down on Wednesday. The US has suspended tariffs on some countries, and the EU has passed counter - measures. The market risk sentiment is released, and the supply - demand situation is still good. Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize, but attention should be paid to tariff trends [8][9][10]. 3.1.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract fell on Tuesday. Some alumina plants have reduced production, and the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved. However, there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter, and alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation [11]. 3.1.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated weakly during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The market risk is quickly released, and the spot supply is tight. Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity [12]. 3.1.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract continued to fall during the day and rebounded at night on Wednesday. The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand, but due to the easing of tariff risks, lead prices are expected to stabilize and repair [13]. 3.1.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated downward during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The Bisie tin mine is gradually resuming production, but the global tin - mine tight pattern in the second quarter is difficult to change. Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level [14][15]. 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract oscillated at a low level on Wednesday. The high inventory drags down the market, and the demand in the peak season is weak. Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [16]. 3.1.10 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices oscillated on Wednesday. Although the fundamentals are bearish, the cost - support logic still exists, and lithium prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. 3.1.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, and Indonesia is about to raise the mineral royalty. Nickel prices are expected to be strong [18]. 3.1.12 Crude Oil - The Shanghai crude - oil main contract oscillated on Wednesday and rose sharply at night. The oil price is mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but it is recommended to wait and see due to the volatile tariff policy [19]. 3.1.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel and iron - ore futures first fell and then rose on Wednesday. The capital - market sentiment eases, and the fundamentals of steel and iron ore change little. Steel and iron - ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, and the panic sentiment has eased. The double - meal prices may return to the fundamentals and oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices fell on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, the market sentiment warms up, and the oil price rises significantly from the low level. Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize [24]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - Provides the closing price, change, change percentage, total trading volume, total open interest, and price unit of various metal futures contracts on Wednesday, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, precious metals, steel, and iron ore [25]. 3.3 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the data of various metals on April 9th and April 8th, including futures prices, warehouse receipts, inventories, spot quotes, spot premiums and discounts, refined - scrap spreads, and other indicators [26][28][29].