Core Viewpoint - Trump's tariff policies have significantly impacted the global economy, affecting over 150 countries, and have created a sense of "awe" towards certain economies [1] Group 1: Trade Relationships - Canada, Mexico, and China are the top trading partners with the U.S., while the EU, Japan, South Korea, and India maintain close trading ties [2] - Surprisingly, the countries that have made Trump feel uneasy do not include Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, or the EU [2] Group 2: United Kingdom - The UK, despite its smaller trade scale compared to the EU and others, has become a significant independent trading partner post-Brexit [3] - The UK was the first major economy to reach a trade agreement with the U.S., enjoying a low tariff rate of 10%, the lowest among all agreements [3] - This indicates a special trust and relationship between Trump and the UK, contrasting with his views on other nations [3] Group 3: China - Trump's approach to China has been cautious, marked by the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" without prior warning [5] - China responded with its own tariffs, reaching as high as 125%, leading to negotiations between the two nations [5] - China's ability to impose tariffs and utilize non-tariff measures, such as rare earth elements, showcases its economic strength and confidence [5] Group 4: India - India's name appears unexpectedly in the context of Trump's trade actions, as the U.S. has not proposed any trade agreements with India despite its rising influence [7] - Unlike other Southeast Asian countries that have reached agreements under pressure, India remains a unique case where the U.S. has been indecisive [7] Group 5: Geopolitical Strategy - The unique positions of the UK, China, and India have compelled Trump to show a degree of respect in tariff negotiations, unlike other economies [9] - The future trade relations between these three countries and the U.S. will be crucial to monitor as global trade dynamics evolve [9]

Group 1: EU and US Tariff Negotiations - The EU is attempting to reach a trade agreement with the US similar to the one between the UK and the US, aiming to resolve some disputes before the July 9 deadline to avoid immediate tariff retaliation against the US [2][4] - As of June 19, major European stock indices fell over 1%, indicating market concerns regarding the ongoing tariff negotiations [2] - The US has raised tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%, with President Trump threatening to increase tariffs to 50% if no agreement is reached [5] Group 2: Global Investment Risks - The UN warns that due to tariff policy uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions, global foreign direct investment (FDI) is at risk of declining for the third consecutive year [3][17] - The UN's report indicates a projected 11% decline in global FDI in 2024, following a significant drop in 2023 [18] - The report highlights that trade tensions have led to a downward adjustment of most FDI outlook indicators, with early 2025 data showing record lows in transaction and project activities [19] Group 3: Internal EU Dynamics - Internal divisions within the EU are weakening its negotiating position, with some countries like France advocating for retaliation against the US, while others like Italy and Hungary prefer continued negotiations [9][10] - The EU is considering a 10% "reciprocal tariff" along with lower tariff quotas in sectors like steel and automobiles, which some member states may reluctantly accept [11] - The EU has proposed increasing purchases of liquefied natural gas and military equipment to reduce its trade surplus with the US, which stands at €198 billion annually [12]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant pullback after reaching an eight-week high, with spot gold dropping over 1% to $3,385.20 per ounce, erasing all gains from the previous Friday [1] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, continue to support gold prices, while the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is a focal point for the market [1] - Economic data releases, including retail sales and import price figures, are expected to provide further insights, with economists predicting a 0.2% decline in May import prices and a 0.7% month-over-month decrease in retail sales [1] Market Dynamics - The complex global trade situation adds uncertainty to the gold market, with G7 leaders meeting in Canada to seek consensus on issues related to Ukraine and the Middle East [1] - President Trump's public support for Russia and resistance to the G7 joint statement creates uncertainty regarding the outcomes of the summit, which may exacerbate global economic volatility and indirectly support gold's safe-haven demand [1] Price Trends and Technical Analysis - The current gold market is characterized by a price uptrend, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and resistance for short positions [6] - Technical indicators show that gold prices are consolidating near support levels, with the hourly chart indicating a range around $3,380 [7] - The MACD indicator suggests upward momentum, although market activity appears to be decreasing, indicating a cautious trading environment [7] Investment Strategy - A strategy is proposed to enter long positions near the support level of $3,380, with a stop loss at $3,373 and a target profit range of $3,430 to $3,450 [7]

Group 1 - The international gold price closed at $3,384.54 per ounce on June 16, down by $47.45 or 1.38%, with a daily high of $3,450.98 and a low of $3,382.39 [1] - As of June 16, the gold ETF holdings increased to 941.93 tons, up by 1.44 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [2] - The total value of gold ETF holdings on June 16 was approximately $102.87 billion, compared to $103.86 billion on June 13 [2] Group 2 - The G7 summit in Canada is facing uncertainties due to differing positions on trade and geopolitical issues, which may increase global economic volatility and support gold's safe-haven demand [2] - A trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. has been reached, while negotiations with Japan remain unresolved, contributing to the complexity of global trade dynamics [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump have agreed to advance trade agreements within 30 days, focusing on North American economic and security relations, which may raise inflation expectations and increase gold's appeal as an anti-inflation asset [3] Group 3 - The recent decline in gold prices has formed a bearish reversal pattern, suggesting a potential adjustment towards the 60-day moving average support, although multiple support levels exist below [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the fluctuating global trade situation and its impact on market sentiment, particularly focusing on the potential movement of gold prices towards 3350 [1] Group 1: Global Trade Situation - The current global trade environment is characterized by uncertainty, leading to volatile market reactions [1] - Market sentiment is heavily influenced by ongoing trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - There is speculation regarding gold prices potentially reaching 3350, indicating a significant shift in investor behavior [1] - The analysis suggests that gold may serve as a safe haven amid the prevailing trade uncertainties [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent gold price experienced fluctuations, with a peak at $3338 before a decline, indicating a strong resistance level at $3339, suggesting a continuation of bearish trends if not surpassed [2][3][5] - The geopolitical tensions between the US and China have eased, which traditionally supports gold prices; however, this reduction in tension has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][5] - Current trading strategies recommend focusing on short positions during rebounds, with key resistance levels identified at $3345-$3355 and support levels at $3310-$3300 [5][3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have seen a slight increase, with Brent crude reaching $67.16 and WTI at $65.42, driven by expectations of positive outcomes from US-China trade negotiations [6][7] - The market is currently influenced by multiple factors, including potential supply surplus due to increased Iranian exports and OPEC's production strategies, which could suppress oil prices in the latter half of the year [6] - Technical analysis indicates a potential upward trend if oil prices break through resistance levels, with short-term strategies suggesting selling on rebounds and buying on dips, focusing on resistance at $66.5-$67.0 and support at $64.0-$63.5 [7][6]

Group 1 - RBC Capital Markets analysts noted that copper inflow into the U.S. has supported a price surge of approximately 11% since early 2025, outperforming global copper prices [1] - North American copper stocks have risen about 9% year-to-date, with Capstone Mining Corp and HudBay Minerals identified as the most favored stocks in the sector [1] - The announcement of a potential investigation into new tariffs on copper imports by President Trump in February has contributed to the increase in copper prices, as copper is essential for various products from electric vehicles to power grids [1] Group 2 - The U.S. copper imports totaled over 123,000 tons in March, significantly higher than 58,000 tons in February and 76,000 tons in January [1] - RBC strategists indicated signs of weakening demand and supply for copper, suggesting that if tariffs are not continued, it could act as a negative catalyst for prices [1] - Short-term risks to copper prices are highlighted due to the potential continuation of Trump's aggressive trade agenda and a slowdown in the construction industry during the summer [2]

Group 1 - The global trade situation remains uncertain, with markets awaiting clearer prospects [1] - There is speculation on whether gold prices could rise to 3400 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden drop in Hong Kong and A50 indices is attributed to multiple factors, including the reintroduction of U.S. steel tariffs, a general decline in the Asia-Pacific stock market, and warnings from Morgan Stanley regarding the U.S. dollar and economic conditions [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Hong Kong stock market and A50 index experienced significant declines, with Hong Kong's drop exceeding 2.5% [1]. - The overall sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region was negative, with major indices like the Hang Seng Tech Index and the National Enterprises Index falling nearly 3% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The reintroduction of U.S. tariffs on steel has raised concerns about global trade dynamics, contributing to market volatility [1]. - Morgan Stanley's report indicated potential weakness in the U.S. dollar due to interest rate cuts and sluggish economic growth, adding to market uncertainty [5]. - The presence of short-selling activities intensified the market's downward trend, as there were no substantial positive developments during the holiday period [5]. Group 3: Outlook for A-shares - A-shares are expected to open lower due to the negative sentiment from the Hong Kong and A50 declines, but a significant drop is not anticipated [7]. - Despite the expected weak performance, there may be support from mysterious funds aimed at stabilizing the market and preventing excessive declines [7]. - Positive influences from the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, such as the central bank's 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operations, could provide support for A-shares [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, aluminum price rebound sustainability remains to be seen, nickel is expected to show a weak shock, and tin price volatility is expected to increase [1][2][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Base Metals Copper - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai copper rose 0.08% to 78,090 yuan/ton. The easing of global trade tensions makes the copper price return to the fundamental logic. The TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, and the subsequent output of smelters may decline. The consumption is stable but the high monthly spread restricts it. Technically, it runs between 74,500 - 80,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 78,500 yuan [1] Aluminum - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 1.27% to 20,005 yuan/ton. Bauxite supply increases and prices decline. Alumina production capacity decreases, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity increases. The downstream开工 rate has a weakening expectation. The aluminum price rebounds, but the sustainability needs to be observed [2] Nickel - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai nickel fell 1.52% to 123,860 yuan/ton. The inflation cools down, and the domestic manufacturing PMI declines. The nickel ore price is firm, the refined nickel is in surplus, the nickel - iron has support but is also in surplus, and the stainless - steel is in the off - season. The cost of nickel sulfate rises, but the demand is weak. It is expected to run weakly [3][5] Tin - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai tin rose 0.37% to 262,070 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin output may decrease, and the import of tin concentrates decreases. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The tin ore supply is tight, and the mine has a strong resumption expectation. The price volatility is expected to increase, and the operation range is 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - The domestic spot copper price falls. After the copper price rises, the downstream's willingness to receive goods decreases, and the actual transaction activity is limited [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum price rises. The holders' willingness to sell is slow at first, but the high price stimulates some profit - taking. The downstream only makes purchases at low prices, and the overall transaction is dull [8] Alumina - The spot price of alumina rises slightly. The transaction in the spot market becomes dull, and the downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises make rigid purchases [9] Zinc - The spot zinc price falls. The activity in the spot trading market decreases, and the downstream users adopt a price - pressing and quantity - limiting strategy [10] Lead - The spot lead price remains unchanged. The downstream maintains rigid purchases and sales [11] Nickel - The spot nickel price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases at low prices, and the inquiry enthusiasm increases [12] Tin - The spot tin price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases, and the overall transaction activity is stable [13] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - For SHFE, copper, lead, and nickel futures warehouse receipts increase, while aluminum, zinc, and tin futures warehouse receipts decrease. For LME, copper, zinc, and aluminum inventories decrease, while lead, nickel inventories increase, and tin inventory remains unchanged [15]