Core Viewpoint - The significant adjustment in the international precious metals market on October 22, with gold prices dropping over 6% and silver prices nearly 9%, is analyzed from multiple perspectives to provide insights for investors [1]. Market Performance - The London spot gold price experienced a daily decline of 6.2%, marking the largest single-day drop of the year. Silver prices fell by 8.7% on the same day. Domestic gold futures also adjusted accordingly, with a noticeable increase in market trading activity [3]. - The adjustment is characterized by a large decline within a normal fluctuation range, a significant increase in trading volume indicating heightened bullish-bearish divergence, and a synchronous adjustment in related stock sectors, suggesting that this price movement is part of a normal market correction [3]. Factors Behind Price Adjustment - The substantial drop in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors: - From a macroeconomic perspective, the latest U.S. employment and inflation data exceeded expectations, reinforcing market anticipation of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, which pressured precious metal prices as the U.S. dollar strengthened. Historical data shows a negative correlation between the dollar index and gold/silver prices [4]. - From a market structure viewpoint, the previous continuous rise in gold and silver prices led to a buildup of profit-taking positions, creating significant technical correction pressure. The breach of key support levels triggered stop-loss orders in algorithmic trading, exacerbating price volatility [4]. - In terms of capital flow, the recent strong performance of global stock markets has led to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to riskier assets. Data from the largest gold ETF indicates a trend of continuous reduction in holdings, reflecting a cautious attitude among institutional investors, which directly impacts prices [4]. Impact on Related Sectors - The price adjustment has put pressure on gold mining company stocks, with some gold mining firms experiencing declines greater than the broader market. The gold and silver jewelry retail sector is also affected, as market concerns about price volatility may impact consumer purchasing intentions. However, in the long term, the price correction could stimulate demand for physical gold [5]. - In the futures market, the open interest in gold and silver futures has decreased, indicating that market participants are adjusting their positions. The volatility index in the options market has risen significantly, suggesting that market expectations for price fluctuations are increasing, which requires careful attention from investors [5]. Recommendations for Investors - For long-term investors, a strategy of gradually building positions during market corrections is recommended, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and sustainable profitability [5]. - Short-term investors are advised to control position sizes and set reasonable stop-loss points, while being cautious not to overly rely on technical analysis [6]. - Ordinary consumers with purchasing needs may consider buying during price corrections, but should clarify their purchasing intentions, especially regarding investment costs [7]. Future Outlook - Long-term factors supporting gold and silver prices remain intact, including the ongoing trend of global central banks purchasing gold, persistent geopolitical risks, and fluctuations in inflation expectations that will continue to influence precious metal prices. Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term perspective on market volatility [7].

Group 1 - The international gold price is currently trading around $3,367.09, with a recent report showing a price of $3,378.92 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.59% [1] - Market analysis indicates that a strong US dollar has diminished gold's appeal, while some investors are taking profits after a price rebound [2] - The upcoming US CPI data release is a key focus for the market, with expectations of a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a year-on-year increase maintaining at a high level of 3% [2] Group 2 - There is a possibility that gold prices may break below the support level of $3,364 per ounce, potentially falling to a range of $3,314 to $3,342 [2] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices may further decline to $3,352 after failing to break through the resistance level of $3,396 [3] - The market is showing a bearish divergence in the hourly RSI, indicating a low likelihood of returning to the recent high of $3,408 in the coming days [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall gold market has shown limited volatility, fluctuating around the $3400 mark, with a focus on geopolitical events and upcoming economic data that could influence prices [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Last week, gold closed with two consecutive gains, indicating a potential upward trend despite recent fluctuations [1] - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 is a key event, with potential implications for gold prices depending on the outcome of discussions regarding the Ukraine conflict [1] - Current market sentiment is leaning towards a bearish outlook for gold, influenced by the anticipation of the CPI data release and a stronger dollar [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The technical structure suggests a focus on resistance levels around $3385-$3390; failure to break above these levels may lead to continued downward movement [2] - Immediate support levels to watch are between $3360-$3350, indicating a potential range for gold prices in the short term [2] - A trading strategy is recommended to focus on short positions at higher levels while remaining cautious of unexpected fundamental changes [2] Group 3: Trading Recommendations - A specific trading strategy suggests shorting gold at $3380-$3382 with a stop loss at $3390 and a target of $3360-$3350 [3] - If gold stabilizes above $3390, a reversal to long positions may be considered [3]

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. White House announced that Trump signed an executive order modifying reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries, imposing a 10% tariff on countries not listed in the order, increasing tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%, and imposing a 40% punitive tariff on transshipped goods. These measures have strengthened the demand for the U.S. dollar in international trade settlements, indirectly suppressing the monetary appeal of gold [1] - Despite some countries like Brazil and Indonesia receiving tariff exemptions, the overall escalation of trade tensions has not significantly stimulated market demand for gold as a safe haven, suggesting that gold prices may face upward limitations in the short term [1] - Economic data indicates that July's Challenger job cuts reached the highest level for the same period since 2020, and initial jobless claims show signs of labor market weakness. However, June's core PCE inflation unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8%, with consumer spending nearly stagnant, hinting at potential stagflation. This complex economic environment should support gold, but expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy are key suppressive factors [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that personnel adjustments at the Federal Reserve will be completed by the end of the year, and Trump publicly criticized Powell's policy missteps, suggesting the potential appointment of more hawkish officials. Market expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation have risen, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, which may exert downward pressure on gold prices in the short term [1] Technical Analysis - The current gold price is in a downtrend after retreating from its high, with the 4-hour chart indicating a bearish trend. The moving averages MA20 and MA60 are in a bearish arrangement, and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands along with MA20 is exerting pressure on the price [4] - The CCI indicator is near the oversold zone and is turning down, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. The trading strategy for the day is to focus on short positions [4] Market News - Key economic indicators to be released include the UK July Manufacturing PMI final value, Eurozone July CPI year-on-year and month-on-month initial values, U.S. July unemployment rate, U.S. July non-farm payrolls, and various other employment-related metrics [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is expected to significantly influence gold prices, with market predictions indicating a rise in the June CPI year-on-year from 2.4% to 2.7% and a core CPI increase to 3% from 2.8% in May [3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold futures are currently trading around 777.30 yuan per gram, showing a slight increase of 0.15% [1] - The highest and lowest trading points for gold futures today were 779.08 yuan per gram and 775.84 yuan per gram, respectively [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears to be oscillating [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market anticipates that if the actual inflation data meets or exceeds expectations, it may reinforce the market's outlook for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, potentially exerting downward pressure on gold prices [3] - Conversely, if inflation data falls below expectations, it could reignite market expectations for interest rate cuts, providing support for gold prices [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Political Influence - There is growing concern regarding the future of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, especially with the Trump administration's pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates [3] - The White House economic advisor has attributed a $700 million cost overrun on the Fed's headquarters renovation to the Federal Reserve, increasing market uncertainty [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Futures - The current trading pattern for Shanghai gold futures indicates a strong oscillation, with key price levels being contested [3] - The main contract is fluctuating around 781 yuan per gram, with short-term support identified between 765-800 yuan per gram and resistance levels at 781-795 yuan per gram [3] - Technical indicators such as the 5-day moving average show signs of a golden cross, suggesting potential for further upward movement if the price stabilizes above the 10-day moving average (approximately 770 yuan per gram) [3]

Group 1 - The current gold market shows significant divergence between bulls and bears, influenced by the potential for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, which diminishes gold's investment appeal, while trade tensions and geopolitical risks provide safe-haven support for gold [1] - Strong non-farm payroll data last week reduced market expectations for a rate cut in July, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, putting pressure on non-yielding gold [1] - The market is awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, which will clarify policymakers' views on the current economic situation and future policy, potentially determining the direction of interest rates [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, gold is under pressure at high levels, with a key resistance level at 3345; any rebound before breaking this level is seen as a short-selling opportunity [3] - If gold stabilizes above 3345, it would confirm a bottoming pattern, signaling the start of a bullish trend, thus shifting focus away from bearish strategies [3] - The 1-hour chart indicates a transition from weakness to strength, with the Bollinger Bands opening upwards, suggesting a potential acceleration in upward movement [3] Group 3 - Suggested trading strategies include buying gold near 3322 with a stop loss at 3314 and a target of 3340-3350, as well as selling gold near 3345 with a stop loss at 3353 and a target of 3330-3320 [4]

Group 1 - Current market sentiment for gold is cautious due to the prospect of sustained high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which diminishes gold's appeal, while trade tensions and geopolitical risks provide some support for safe-haven assets [1] - The recent non-farm payroll data has weakened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, which puts pressure on non-yielding assets like gold [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the June FOMC meeting minutes, which will clarify members' assessments of the current economic outlook and future policy direction, potentially influencing interest rate trends [1] Group 2 - The daily structure of gold prices indicates a potential fourth wave adjustment after a peak at 3500, with expectations of further price movements following this adjustment [2] - On the 4-hour chart, a combined WXY three-wave adjustment is observed, with specific price levels identified for potential movements within the Y wave [4] - Recent price action shows gold rebounding to around 3342 before retreating, with a focus on support levels around 3296, which aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels [6] Group 3 - Trading strategies suggest buying near 3317/18 with a stop loss at 3311 and a target of 3325-3327, while also recommending short positions in the 3325-28 range with a stop loss at 3331 [7] - The domestic gold products, such as accumulation gold and futures, are closely correlated with international gold prices, with short-term trading opportunities identified amid recent price declines [8] - Accumulation gold opened lower following international gold trends, with specific support levels highlighted for potential buying opportunities [8]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant pullback after reaching an eight-week high, with spot gold dropping over 1% to $3,385.20 per ounce, erasing all gains from the previous Friday [1] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, continue to support gold prices, while the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is a focal point for the market [1] - Economic data releases, including retail sales and import price figures, are expected to provide further insights, with economists predicting a 0.2% decline in May import prices and a 0.7% month-over-month decrease in retail sales [1] Market Dynamics - The complex global trade situation adds uncertainty to the gold market, with G7 leaders meeting in Canada to seek consensus on issues related to Ukraine and the Middle East [1] - President Trump's public support for Russia and resistance to the G7 joint statement creates uncertainty regarding the outcomes of the summit, which may exacerbate global economic volatility and indirectly support gold's safe-haven demand [1] Price Trends and Technical Analysis - The current gold market is characterized by a price uptrend, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and resistance for short positions [6] - Technical indicators show that gold prices are consolidating near support levels, with the hourly chart indicating a range around $3,380 [7] - The MACD indicator suggests upward momentum, although market activity appears to be decreasing, indicating a cautious trading environment [7] Investment Strategy - A strategy is proposed to enter long positions near the support level of $3,380, with a stop loss at $3,373 and a target profit range of $3,430 to $3,450 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have significantly declined, potentially marking the worst weekly performance in six months due to a stronger dollar and reduced demand for safe-haven assets following a temporary trade agreement between China and the U.S. [1][3] Market Analysis - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is the primary bearish factor for the gold market this week, as the announcement of temporary tariff reductions shifted market sentiment from panic to optimism [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain high interest rates in the short term, with recent comments from officials indicating no urgency to cut rates, which has cooled expectations for rate cuts until December [3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming U.S. economic data, such as CPI and employment figures, which could reinforce or alter the Fed's hawkish stance and impact gold prices [3] Price Movement - Gold prices have dropped over 4% this week, with current trading around $3,175 per ounce, having broken below the $3,200 mark [1][3] - The price trend suggests a potential target around $2,900, with possible short-term rebounds viewed merely as corrections [3] - Recent analysis indicates that the recent upward movement to $3,252 has ended, and a downward trend is anticipated, with key resistance levels identified at $3,220 and $3,188 [5][7] Technical Indicators - The market is currently observing a bearish trend, with significant resistance at $3,193 and support around $3,147, which, if broken, could lead to further declines towards $3,080 [7] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of effective position management and risk control in trading strategies, highlighting the need for a disciplined approach to market fluctuations [7]

Group 1 - Trump's hardline stance in financial markets has faced setbacks, including a 90-day delay in implementing reciprocal tariff policies after significant turmoil in the bond market [1] - The withdrawal of Trump's statement to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicates a shift in strategy due to the simultaneous decline of U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [1] - The "maximum pressure" strategy against major Asian countries has encountered strong resistance, leading to signals from Trump about potentially lowering tariffs on goods from these countries [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have retreated after approaching the $3500 per ounce mark, currently stabilizing around $3260 per ounce, with a pattern of alternating price movements observed [3] - The 4-hour chart indicates a slight consolidation in gold prices, with Bollinger Bands showing signs of contraction, reinforcing the current oscillating market condition [3] - Key resistance for gold is identified at $3350 - $3360 per ounce, while support is at $3290 - $3285 per ounce, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [4]