Group 1 - The international gold price is currently trading around $3,367.09, with a recent report showing a price of $3,378.92 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.59% [1] - Market analysis indicates that a strong US dollar has diminished gold's appeal, while some investors are taking profits after a price rebound [2] - The upcoming US CPI data release is a key focus for the market, with expectations of a 0.3% month-on-month increase and a year-on-year increase maintaining at a high level of 3% [2] Group 2 - There is a possibility that gold prices may break below the support level of $3,364 per ounce, potentially falling to a range of $3,314 to $3,342 [2] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices may further decline to $3,352 after failing to break through the resistance level of $3,396 [3] - The market is showing a bearish divergence in the hourly RSI, indicating a low likelihood of returning to the recent high of $3,408 in the coming days [3]

周一（8月11日）现货黄金呈现高位震荡走势，亚市早盘小幅冲破3400美元/盎司关口，随后快速回落至 3370美元附近，日内波动幅度超过30美元。这一走势主要受到美元指数走强、市场获利回吐以及投资者 对即将公布的美国CPI数据的谨慎情绪影响。 毕竟没了关税影响，黄金前期的偏激涨势都会有所回落。目前市场初步焦点集中在周二将发布的美国7 月CPI数据，预期核心CPI环比上升0.3%，同比涨幅或维持在3%高位，这可能强化美联储维持高利率政 策的预期。 来源：黄金分析师张津镭 张津镭：黄金周初高空为主，警惕特朗普黑天鹅 上周黄金整体波动不大，基本就是在在3400美元大关附近来回震荡，最终周线是收于2连阳。本周事件 不多，主要关注特朗普与普京将于8月15日在美国阿拉斯加州会，特朗普称俄乌和平协议涉及"领土交 换"，泽连斯基拒绝领土让步。若谈判失败，黄金将会大涨。 从技术上来看，今日黄金开盘后直接走跌，如此下行动作表明了当前市场情绪已经向偏空状态转变，考 虑到此走势也是受普特会的预期影响，所以本周普特会之前，也侧重于看黄金的持续回修。目前小时图 技术结构上，可着重关注上方3385-90一带压力，只要周初不返回其上，那么短期 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. White House announced that Trump signed an executive order modifying reciprocal tariff rates for certain countries, imposing a 10% tariff on countries not listed in the order, increasing tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%, and imposing a 40% punitive tariff on transshipped goods. These measures have strengthened the demand for the U.S. dollar in international trade settlements, indirectly suppressing the monetary appeal of gold [1] - Despite some countries like Brazil and Indonesia receiving tariff exemptions, the overall escalation of trade tensions has not significantly stimulated market demand for gold as a safe haven, suggesting that gold prices may face upward limitations in the short term [1] - Economic data indicates that July's Challenger job cuts reached the highest level for the same period since 2020, and initial jobless claims show signs of labor market weakness. However, June's core PCE inflation unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8%, with consumer spending nearly stagnant, hinting at potential stagflation. This complex economic environment should support gold, but expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy are key suppressive factors [1] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that personnel adjustments at the Federal Reserve will be completed by the end of the year, and Trump publicly criticized Powell's policy missteps, suggesting the potential appointment of more hawkish officials. Market expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates to combat inflation have risen, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, which may exert downward pressure on gold prices in the short term [1] Technical Analysis - The current gold price is in a downtrend after retreating from its high, with the 4-hour chart indicating a bearish trend. The moving averages MA20 and MA60 are in a bearish arrangement, and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands along with MA20 is exerting pressure on the price [4] - The CCI indicator is near the oversold zone and is turning down, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. The trading strategy for the day is to focus on short positions [4] Market News - Key economic indicators to be released include the UK July Manufacturing PMI final value, Eurozone July CPI year-on-year and month-on-month initial values, U.S. July unemployment rate, U.S. July non-farm payrolls, and various other employment-related metrics [7][8]

即将公布的美国通胀数据或将成为影响黄金走势的下一个关键因素。目前，市场普遍预期6月总体CPI 年率将从2.4%上升至2.7%，同时，6月核心CPI同比涨幅预计会达到3%，高于5月的2.8%。若实际数据 符合或超出这一预期，可能会强化市场对美联储维持高利率政策的预期，从而进一步对金价构成压力； 反之，如果通胀数据低于预期，则可能重新点燃市场对降息的期待，为黄金价格提供支撑。 此外，美联储主席鲍威尔的去留问题也开始引起市场的广泛关注。近期，特朗普政府频繁向美联储施 压，要求其降低利率。特朗普还特别指出了美联储总部大楼翻修项目超支的问题，并对此事表示质疑。 白宫经济顾问哈西特更是将超支的7亿美元责任直接归咎于美联储。尽管直接解雇鲍威尔的可能性不 大，但这种政治干预已经让市场感到不安，增加了不确定性。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日周二（7月15日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于775.36元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报777.30元/ 克，上涨0.15%，最高触及779.08元/克，最低下探775.84元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 沪金期货当前呈现震荡 ...

Group 1 - The current gold market shows significant divergence between bulls and bears, influenced by the potential for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, which diminishes gold's investment appeal, while trade tensions and geopolitical risks provide safe-haven support for gold [1] - Strong non-farm payroll data last week reduced market expectations for a rate cut in July, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, putting pressure on non-yielding gold [1] - The market is awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, which will clarify policymakers' views on the current economic situation and future policy, potentially determining the direction of interest rates [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, gold is under pressure at high levels, with a key resistance level at 3345; any rebound before breaking this level is seen as a short-selling opportunity [3] - If gold stabilizes above 3345, it would confirm a bottoming pattern, signaling the start of a bullish trend, thus shifting focus away from bearish strategies [3] - The 1-hour chart indicates a transition from weakness to strength, with the Bollinger Bands opening upwards, suggesting a potential acceleration in upward movement [3] Group 3 - Suggested trading strategies include buying gold near 3322 with a stop loss at 3314 and a target of 3340-3350, as well as selling gold near 3345 with a stop loss at 3353 and a target of 3330-3320 [4]

Group 1 - Current market sentiment for gold is cautious due to the prospect of sustained high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which diminishes gold's appeal, while trade tensions and geopolitical risks provide some support for safe-haven assets [1] - The recent non-farm payroll data has weakened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, which puts pressure on non-yielding assets like gold [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the June FOMC meeting minutes, which will clarify members' assessments of the current economic outlook and future policy direction, potentially influencing interest rate trends [1] Group 2 - The daily structure of gold prices indicates a potential fourth wave adjustment after a peak at 3500, with expectations of further price movements following this adjustment [2] - On the 4-hour chart, a combined WXY three-wave adjustment is observed, with specific price levels identified for potential movements within the Y wave [4] - Recent price action shows gold rebounding to around 3342 before retreating, with a focus on support levels around 3296, which aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels [6] Group 3 - Trading strategies suggest buying near 3317/18 with a stop loss at 3311 and a target of 3325-3327, while also recommending short positions in the 3325-28 range with a stop loss at 3331 [7] - The domestic gold products, such as accumulation gold and futures, are closely correlated with international gold prices, with short-term trading opportunities identified amid recent price declines [8] - Accumulation gold opened lower following international gold trends, with specific support levels highlighted for potential buying opportunities [8]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant pullback after reaching an eight-week high, with spot gold dropping over 1% to $3,385.20 per ounce, erasing all gains from the previous Friday [1] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, continue to support gold prices, while the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is a focal point for the market [1] - Economic data releases, including retail sales and import price figures, are expected to provide further insights, with economists predicting a 0.2% decline in May import prices and a 0.7% month-over-month decrease in retail sales [1] Market Dynamics - The complex global trade situation adds uncertainty to the gold market, with G7 leaders meeting in Canada to seek consensus on issues related to Ukraine and the Middle East [1] - President Trump's public support for Russia and resistance to the G7 joint statement creates uncertainty regarding the outcomes of the summit, which may exacerbate global economic volatility and indirectly support gold's safe-haven demand [1] Price Trends and Technical Analysis - The current gold market is characterized by a price uptrend, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and resistance for short positions [6] - Technical indicators show that gold prices are consolidating near support levels, with the hourly chart indicating a range around $3,380 [7] - The MACD indicator suggests upward momentum, although market activity appears to be decreasing, indicating a cautious trading environment [7] Investment Strategy - A strategy is proposed to enter long positions near the support level of $3,380, with a stop loss at $3,373 and a target profit range of $3,430 to $3,450 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have significantly declined, potentially marking the worst weekly performance in six months due to a stronger dollar and reduced demand for safe-haven assets following a temporary trade agreement between China and the U.S. [1][3] Market Analysis - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is the primary bearish factor for the gold market this week, as the announcement of temporary tariff reductions shifted market sentiment from panic to optimism [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain high interest rates in the short term, with recent comments from officials indicating no urgency to cut rates, which has cooled expectations for rate cuts until December [3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming U.S. economic data, such as CPI and employment figures, which could reinforce or alter the Fed's hawkish stance and impact gold prices [3] Price Movement - Gold prices have dropped over 4% this week, with current trading around $3,175 per ounce, having broken below the $3,200 mark [1][3] - The price trend suggests a potential target around $2,900, with possible short-term rebounds viewed merely as corrections [3] - Recent analysis indicates that the recent upward movement to $3,252 has ended, and a downward trend is anticipated, with key resistance levels identified at $3,220 and $3,188 [5][7] Technical Indicators - The market is currently observing a bearish trend, with significant resistance at $3,193 and support around $3,147, which, if broken, could lead to further declines towards $3,080 [7] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of effective position management and risk control in trading strategies, highlighting the need for a disciplined approach to market fluctuations [7]

Group 1 - Trump's hardline stance in financial markets has faced setbacks, including a 90-day delay in implementing reciprocal tariff policies after significant turmoil in the bond market [1] - The withdrawal of Trump's statement to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicates a shift in strategy due to the simultaneous decline of U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [1] - The "maximum pressure" strategy against major Asian countries has encountered strong resistance, leading to signals from Trump about potentially lowering tariffs on goods from these countries [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have retreated after approaching the $3500 per ounce mark, currently stabilizing around $3260 per ounce, with a pattern of alternating price movements observed [3] - The 4-hour chart indicates a slight consolidation in gold prices, with Bollinger Bands showing signs of contraction, reinforcing the current oscillating market condition [3] - Key resistance for gold is identified at $3350 - $3360 per ounce, while support is at $3290 - $3285 per ounce, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips [4]