即将公布的美国通胀数据或将成为影响黄金走势的下一个关键因素。目前，市场普遍预期6月总体CPI 年率将从2.4%上升至2.7%，同时，6月核心CPI同比涨幅预计会达到3%，高于5月的2.8%。若实际数据 符合或超出这一预期，可能会强化市场对美联储维持高利率政策的预期，从而进一步对金价构成压力； 反之，如果通胀数据低于预期，则可能重新点燃市场对降息的期待，为黄金价格提供支撑。 此外，美联储主席鲍威尔的去留问题也开始引起市场的广泛关注。近期，特朗普政府频繁向美联储施 压，要求其降低利率。特朗普还特别指出了美联储总部大楼翻修项目超支的问题，并对此事表示质疑。 白宫经济顾问哈西特更是将超支的7亿美元责任直接归咎于美联储。尽管直接解雇鲍威尔的可能性不 大，但这种政治干预已经让市场感到不安，增加了不确定性。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日周二（7月15日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于775.36元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报777.30元/ 克，上涨0.15%，最高触及779.08元/克，最低下探775.84元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 沪金期货当前呈现震荡 ...

Group 1 - The current gold market shows significant divergence between bulls and bears, influenced by the potential for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, which diminishes gold's investment appeal, while trade tensions and geopolitical risks provide safe-haven support for gold [1] - Strong non-farm payroll data last week reduced market expectations for a rate cut in July, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, putting pressure on non-yielding gold [1] - The market is awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, which will clarify policymakers' views on the current economic situation and future policy, potentially determining the direction of interest rates [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, gold is under pressure at high levels, with a key resistance level at 3345; any rebound before breaking this level is seen as a short-selling opportunity [3] - If gold stabilizes above 3345, it would confirm a bottoming pattern, signaling the start of a bullish trend, thus shifting focus away from bearish strategies [3] - The 1-hour chart indicates a transition from weakness to strength, with the Bollinger Bands opening upwards, suggesting a potential acceleration in upward movement [3] Group 3 - Suggested trading strategies include buying gold near 3322 with a stop loss at 3314 and a target of 3340-3350, as well as selling gold near 3345 with a stop loss at 3353 and a target of 3330-3320 [4]

Group 1 - Current market sentiment for gold is cautious due to the prospect of sustained high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which diminishes gold's appeal, while trade tensions and geopolitical risks provide some support for safe-haven assets [1] - The recent non-farm payroll data has weakened expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, which puts pressure on non-yielding assets like gold [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the June FOMC meeting minutes, which will clarify members' assessments of the current economic outlook and future policy direction, potentially influencing interest rate trends [1] Group 2 - The daily structure of gold prices indicates a potential fourth wave adjustment after a peak at 3500, with expectations of further price movements following this adjustment [2] - On the 4-hour chart, a combined WXY three-wave adjustment is observed, with specific price levels identified for potential movements within the Y wave [4] - Recent price action shows gold rebounding to around 3342 before retreating, with a focus on support levels around 3296, which aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels [6] Group 3 - Trading strategies suggest buying near 3317/18 with a stop loss at 3311 and a target of 3325-3327, while also recommending short positions in the 3325-28 range with a stop loss at 3331 [7] - The domestic gold products, such as accumulation gold and futures, are closely correlated with international gold prices, with short-term trading opportunities identified amid recent price declines [8] - Accumulation gold opened lower following international gold trends, with specific support levels highlighted for potential buying opportunities [8]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant pullback after reaching an eight-week high, with spot gold dropping over 1% to $3,385.20 per ounce, erasing all gains from the previous Friday [1] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, continue to support gold prices, while the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is a focal point for the market [1] - Economic data releases, including retail sales and import price figures, are expected to provide further insights, with economists predicting a 0.2% decline in May import prices and a 0.7% month-over-month decrease in retail sales [1] Market Dynamics - The complex global trade situation adds uncertainty to the gold market, with G7 leaders meeting in Canada to seek consensus on issues related to Ukraine and the Middle East [1] - President Trump's public support for Russia and resistance to the G7 joint statement creates uncertainty regarding the outcomes of the summit, which may exacerbate global economic volatility and indirectly support gold's safe-haven demand [1] Price Trends and Technical Analysis - The current gold market is characterized by a price uptrend, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and resistance for short positions [6] - Technical indicators show that gold prices are consolidating near support levels, with the hourly chart indicating a range around $3,380 [7] - The MACD indicator suggests upward momentum, although market activity appears to be decreasing, indicating a cautious trading environment [7] Investment Strategy - A strategy is proposed to enter long positions near the support level of $3,380, with a stop loss at $3,373 and a target profit range of $3,430 to $3,450 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have significantly declined, potentially marking the worst weekly performance in six months due to a stronger dollar and reduced demand for safe-haven assets following a temporary trade agreement between China and the U.S. [1][3] Market Analysis - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is the primary bearish factor for the gold market this week, as the announcement of temporary tariff reductions shifted market sentiment from panic to optimism [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain high interest rates in the short term, with recent comments from officials indicating no urgency to cut rates, which has cooled expectations for rate cuts until December [3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming U.S. economic data, such as CPI and employment figures, which could reinforce or alter the Fed's hawkish stance and impact gold prices [3] Price Movement - Gold prices have dropped over 4% this week, with current trading around $3,175 per ounce, having broken below the $3,200 mark [1][3] - The price trend suggests a potential target around $2,900, with possible short-term rebounds viewed merely as corrections [3] - Recent analysis indicates that the recent upward movement to $3,252 has ended, and a downward trend is anticipated, with key resistance levels identified at $3,220 and $3,188 [5][7] Technical Indicators - The market is currently observing a bearish trend, with significant resistance at $3,193 and support around $3,147, which, if broken, could lead to further declines towards $3,080 [7] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of effective position management and risk control in trading strategies, highlighting the need for a disciplined approach to market fluctuations [7]

特朗普在金融市场上的强硬立场接连遭遇挫折。首次退让发生在债券市场大幅动荡之后，其原本计划推行的对等关税政策被迫延期 90 天执行。第二次妥协 态势更为突出，受美股、美债、美元同步走低的重压，特朗普突然改弦更张，撤销了解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的表态。 操作策略： 在贸易战前线，特朗普推行的"极限施压"策略在亚洲大国处遭遇强劲阻击。亚洲大国不仅未有丝毫退缩，反而以精准有力的反制举措予以回击。在遭受实质 性损失的情况下，特朗普近期一改常态，释放出可能降低对亚洲大国商品加征高额关税的信号。特朗普同时挑起多条战线的激进策略正逐渐显现其负面效 应。 1.黄金建议回调3292-3285区域做多，止损在3277，目标看3320-3350，破位看3370。 在国内事务层面，特朗普面临着接连不断的法律挑战。顶级律所对其发起诉讼，哈佛大学成功捍卫联邦拨款权益，司法体系持续发挥监督制衡作用。鉴于特 朗普政策的高度不确定性，在市场避险情绪升温的背景下，黄金或有望维持强势运行态势。然而若美联储持续维持高利率政策，或美国经济实现软着陆，金 价或将面临阶段性下行压力。 文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是 ...