Group 1: Gold and Oil Markets - Spot gold prices fell for the third consecutive trading day, dropping nearly $100 from the daily high, closing down 0.83% at $4045.67 per ounce [1] - International crude oil opened lower as Russian oil exports from Novorossiysk port resumed after a two-day halt; WTI crude failed to break the $60 mark, closing down 0.13% at $59.74 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 0.38% to $63.71 per barrel [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson noted an increase in downside risks to employment but emphasized the need for cautious policy adjustments [1] - Fed Governor Cook denied fraud allegations, labeling them as "political persecution" [1] - Fed Chair candidate Hassett mentioned mixed signals in the job market, suggesting that AI may suppress hiring demand [1] - Fed Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in December, which would provide additional support to the labor market, with upcoming employment data unlikely to alter this view [1] Group 3: Trade and Tariffs - The EU plans to warn the U.S. against expanding the scope of steel tariffs [1] - The UK is reportedly drafting countermeasures against EU steel tariffs [1] - India and the U.S. may soon reach an agreement on reciprocal tariffs, as India's trade deficit hit a record in October due to soaring gold imports and declining exports to the U.S. [1] Group 4: Economic Forecasts - The EU has raised its GDP growth forecast for this year from 0.9% to 1.3%, with inflation nearing the European Central Bank's target [2] Group 5: Export Tax Plans - Indonesia plans to impose an export tax of 7.5% to 15% on gold products starting in 2026 [3]

Core Insights - India's goods trade deficit reached a record high of $41.7 billion in October, driven by a surge in gold imports and the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports [1][2] Trade Deficit and Imports - The trade deficit significantly exceeded Reuters poll estimates of $28.8 billion and surpassed the previous record of $37.8 billion set in November 2024 [2] - Gold imports in October amounted to $14.7 billion, marking an increase of nearly 200% compared to the same month last year, with consumers estimated to have spent $11 billion during the five-day festival period [2] Exports and Tariff Impact - Exports to the U.S. declined for the second consecutive month, falling 8.5% year-on-year in October to $6.3 billion due to the 50% tariffs implemented at the end of August [3] - Despite the decline, the U.S. remained the largest export destination for India, with shipments worth $52 billion in the first seven months of the fiscal year [3] - Key exports such as gems and jewelry fell by 29.5% to $2.3 billion, while engineering goods decreased by 16.7% to $9.4 billion [4] Future Outlook - Merchandise imports are expected to decrease in November and December 2025 as gold imports decline post-festival season, alongside a potential increase in exports [5] - India's current account deficit is projected to widen to 2.4-2.5% of GDP in the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026, with a CAD to GDP ratio of around 1.2% for fiscal year 2026 if U.S. tariffs remain in place [6] Trade Negotiations - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and India have yet to yield a deal, although both sides are softening their positions, with hints from U.S. President Trump about potential tariff reductions [7] - India has increased oil and gas purchases from the U.S. to address the trade surplus and is expected to buy agricultural products as well [7]

13%关税压垮利润，中国压榨厂停买美豆，巴西豆成了更香的选择吗 十月底釜山那次会面把气氛弄暖了点，但真金白银的买卖没跟着热起来，中粮象征性买了18万吨美豆后，中国压榨企业就按住了手，原因很简单，13%的进 口税把美豆到岸价抬高了近50美元每吨，压垮了微薄的利润，这回局面里有利益有政治，也有算术题，下面说给你听清楚点。 正文 十月底的会面之后，中方没把关税彻底撤掉，只说"暂停"部分加征——企业被放了个选择权，中粮在那会儿买了18万吨美豆，算是试探性的动作，但十月底 之后再没新增订单出现，贸易商和压榨厂的算盘啪啪啪响起，一个美元差价就能决定生死，13%税的存在把美豆价格推得比巴西高出近50美元每吨，压榨厂 的毛利本来就薄，现在根本算不下去。 此外美国可能的政治变动也让中国企业心里打着问号，特朗普可能再来，谁敢保证现在签的协议不会变成明天的泡影，中国这边吃过亏了，学乖了，没看见 稳定可预期的贸易环境前，谁愿意把大单压在国际政治的摇摆上。 现实很现实，巴西豆靠3%基础关税和地理成本优势，在价格上把美豆压得服服贴贴，这就是市场，政治可以做背景音乐，但真正决定买卖的是价差和货源 时间表，除非美豆在价上做出让步，或者南美真 ...

Core Points - President Trump initially imposed tariffs on food imports to enhance U.S. self-sufficiency but has now reversed some of these tariffs on agricultural products that cannot be produced domestically at scale, such as coffee, bananas, and orange juice [1][4] - The new tariff exemptions took effect retroactively on November 13, 2025, with Trump indicating that he does not foresee further policy rollbacks in the future [1][8] Tariffs and Economic Impact - Tariffs are taxes on imports aimed at protecting domestic industries and generating revenue, theoretically leading to reduced imports and increased domestic consumption [2] - Despite the intention behind tariffs, they cannot effectively stimulate production of items like coffee and bananas that are not feasible to grow in the U.S. [4][6] - Coffee prices surged over 40% year-over-year due to the tariffs, while banana prices increased nearly 9% [7] Legal Challenges - The tariffs have faced legal challenges, with a federal appeals court ruling that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [9][11] - The Supreme Court is currently reviewing the case, with indications that justices may be skeptical of Trump's authority to impose such tariffs [12] Tariff Rebate Checks - Trump proposed a $2,000 per person tariff "dividend" to alleviate cost of living concerns, although this would require Congressional approval [13][14] - Despite claims of reduced prices, average grocery prices in the U.S. were reported to be 2.7% higher in September compared to the previous year [14]

美联储副主席Jefferson：当前货币政策在一定程度上具有限制性。美国就业市场的供应与需求逐步降 温。不清楚能在12月FOMC货币政策会议之前掌握多少官方数据。剔除关税因素之后，通胀仍然朝着 2%取得进展。关税可能会造成价格一次性的转变。当前能够了解到的那些风险凸显出需要缓慢地推进 （货币政策）。 ...

The bloc raised its growth expectations for the eurozone this year, though tariffs are expected to weigh on the outlook for 2026. ...

来源：智昇财论 黄金方面：上周临近尾盘，黄金短线快速下跌，大周期形态上也有走坏的迹象，目前来看价格尚未止 跌，不排除黄金牛市结束的可能。 综合来看，当下黄金的下跌主要是因为避险情绪的下降，随着美国政府重启，各项事务有重新回归正轨 的迹象。但本次达成的临时拨款法案仍留下隐患：按惯例，美国国会每年需通过12项拨款预算，但最新 通过的这一法案仅包含3项年度拨款预算，其余9项预算尚未敲定。在临时拨款法案生效期间，两党将继 续展开谈判。这意味着，两个多月后，美国联邦政府可能再次面临停摆危机。 国际能源署的最新报告显示，到2026年底之前国际原油供应过剩的压力将增大，今年全球原油供应量将 增加310万桶/日，高于先前预测的300万桶/日。将2026年供应增长预期从240万桶/日上调至250万桶/ 日。 供应端在增长，而需求端在走弱，国际能源署将今年的原油需求从预期的71万桶/日上调至78.8万桶/ 日，2026年的原油需求预期从69.9万桶/日上调至77万桶/日，但增幅都小于供应增幅，全球原油库存将 进一步上升。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，短期来看，随着避险情绪回落，前期多头获利盘了结，进而 带动黄金短线下跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of the postponement of the releases of "Crayon Shin-chan: The Hot Spring Dancer" and "Cells at Work" indicates potential shifts in the animation industry and may impact related market segments [1]. Group 1 - The films "Crayon Shin-chan: The Hot Spring Dancer" and "Cells at Work" were originally scheduled for release but have now been postponed [1].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has unexpectedly shifted its policy regarding tariffs, particularly on agricultural products, indicating a significant retreat from aggressive tariff strategies that have previously contributed to rising consumer prices [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - President Trump signed an executive order to exempt over 200 agricultural products from "reciprocal tariffs," effective from November 13 [1]. - The exemption applies to products that had previously seen price increases of over 10% year-on-year in the U.S. market [1]. - The decision reflects the administration's acknowledgment of the negative impact of tariffs on consumer prices, as evidenced by rising inflation and public concern over living costs [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The September Consumer Price Index showed significant price increases, with ground beef prices up nearly 13% and steak prices rising close to 17%, marking the largest increases in over three years [2]. - Overall, food costs for American households rose by 2.7% year-on-year in September, indicating a trend of increasing inflation [2]. - The rising costs have been linked to the administration's trade policies, which have faced criticism from both political parties [3]. Group 3: Political Reactions - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce welcomed the tariff adjustments and urged the government to consider further exemptions for products that are hard to source domestically [3]. - Democratic lawmakers argue that the tariff exemptions are insufficient to address the broader economic damage caused by the administration's trade policies [3]. - Polls indicate that 56% of the public disapproves of the president's handling of economic issues, highlighting the political pressure surrounding inflation and living costs [3].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong profit growth for S&P 500 companies, with a year-on-year increase of 12% in Q3 2025, despite macroeconomic concerns [7][8]. Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown negatively impacted Q4 economic growth by approximately 1.1 to 1.2 percentage points, but a rebound to 3.1% growth is expected in Q1 due to government spending [1][2]. - The Supreme Court's skepticism regarding the President's authority to impose tariffs under IEEPA may lead to partial overturning of tariffs, although significant presidential power remains [1][4]. - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December, although uncertainty remains [1][5]. - The AI sector is experiencing significant capital expenditure growth, with projections for large-scale data centers raised from $470 billion to $530 billion [8][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The government shutdown has caused a drag on economic growth, but a rebound is expected due to increased government spending [1][2]. - The labor market's performance will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates [5][10]. Tariff and Legal Considerations - The Supreme Court's upcoming decision on tariffs could reshape the landscape of U.S. trade policy, with implications for specific countries [4][1]. Corporate Performance - S&P 500 companies showed strong profit growth, with a notable increase in guidance for Q4, indicating positive market expectations [7][8]. - AI companies are financially robust, with strong cash flows and low debt levels, positioning them well for future growth despite market volatility [9][18]. Currency and Market Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to gradually depreciate as economic performance weakens, influenced by labor market data and potential interest rate cuts [10][12]. - Emerging market currencies may perform better if the U.S. economy underperforms, with the potential for a stable yuan to support the Asian region [12][10].