在美联储理事人事变动消息传出后，摩根大通更新了对美联储货币政策的预测，认为美联储将在接下来 的四次会议上连续降息，每次25个基点。 当地时间本周四，特朗普官宣提名现任经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）担任美联储 理事，填补美联储理事库格勒即将于明年1月到期的任期。媒体同日报道，在美国总统特朗普及其顾问 团队寻找下任美联储主席的人选过程中，现任美联储理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）正逐渐成为最有可 能的人选之一。 基于最新人事变动，摩根大通经济学家Michael Feroli在最新的报告中表示，基于风险管理考量，预计美 联储将在9月会议上提前实施25个基点降息，并在随后的三次会议上继续降息，然后无限期暂停。这一 预测代表了华尔街对美联储政策最为鸽派的观点。 人事变动驱动政策预期调整 摩根大通解释称，要让米兰在参议院9月5日休会回来后、9月16日下次联邦公开市场委员会会议开始前 获得批准，将是一项艰巨的任务。 从历史上看，新上任的理事或美联储主席有时会在首次联邦公开市场委员会会议上弃权。但如果米兰在 下次会议前恰好担任理事且不弃权，最终投票结果或将出现三票反对的"盛况"， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic indicates that risks in the job market have increased, but it is too early to commit to interest rate cuts, with more data expected before the next Fed meeting [1] Employment Market - Bostic acknowledges that employment data shows significantly higher risks compared to the past [1] Inflation Outlook - Future months are expected to see a rise in inflation, which will influence the decision-making process regarding interest rates [1] - Bostic believes that a 25 basis point rate cut may be appropriate this year, contingent on upcoming inflation and employment data [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights concerns from Federal Reserve officials Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman regarding the potential negative impact of the Fed's reluctance to lower interest rates on the labor market [1][2] - Waller and Bowman voted against the Fed's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, both favoring a 25 basis point cut [1] - They emphasized signs of a weakening labor market, contrasting with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's description of the labor market as overall solid [1][2] Group 2 - Waller expressed that the cautious approach of waiting may not adequately balance the risks of the outlook and could lead to policy lagging behind the situation [1] - Bowman noted that the vitality of the labor market has diminished and is showing increasingly fragile signs [1][2] - The statements from Waller and Bowman were made shortly before the release of the latest government employment report, which is expected to show slowing job growth and rising unemployment [2] Group 3 - Powell indicated that he expects inflation data to begin reflecting the greater impact of tariffs in the coming months, stressing the need to ensure tariffs do not lead to sustained inflation [3] - Waller mentioned that the impact of tariffs on prices has been minimal so far, and the labor market could deteriorate before clear information on tariffs is available [3] - Bowman warned that delaying action could lead to further deterioration of the labor market and a slowdown in economic growth, advocating for a focus on employment risks as inflation moves towards the 2% target [3]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that some participants view the risks in the labor market as a primary concern, overshadowing inflation risks [1] - There are signs of weakening in actual economic activity and the labor market, leading to concerns about future economic conditions, especially if restrictive policies continue [1] - Participants agree that despite a decrease in uncertainty regarding inflation and economic outlook, caution is necessary when adjusting monetary policy [1]