Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) has launched a public offering of 4.9 billion yuan convertible bonds, which is the second-largest issuance of convertible bonds this year, amid a low supply of new bonds in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Issuance - The convertible bond, named "CGN Convertible Bond," has an initial conversion price of 3.67 yuan per share and a credit rating of AAA [4]. - The funds raised will be used for the construction of the 5th and 6th units of the Lufeng Nuclear Power Plant in Guangdong [5]. - The issuance is expected to improve the market's supply-demand situation, as the convertible bond is considered a top-tier product due to its size and rating [7]. Group 2: Market Context - The market for convertible bonds is currently experiencing a decline in new issuances, while the number of bonds being delisted, particularly bank convertible bonds, is increasing [1][8]. - Recent delistings include the Hangzhou Bank Convertible Bond and the South Bank Convertible Bond, indicating a tightening market for convertible bonds [8]. Group 3: Impact on Subscription Rate - Historical data shows a positive correlation between the issuance size of convertible bonds and the subscription rate, with larger issuances typically resulting in higher subscription rates [10][11]. - The subscription rate for CGN's convertible bond is expected to be significantly higher, although it may be influenced by the participation of the controlling shareholder, CGN Group [12].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 以下文章来源于债券人 ，作者光大证券固收研究 债券人 . 唯有进行扎实的基本面研究，方能行稳致远。 转债价格的均值为121.66元（上周为120.19元），分位值为81.3%（上周为72.9%）； 转债平价的均值为93.22元（上周为92.52元），分位值为65.9%（上周为61.5%）； 转债转股溢价率的均值为29.8%（上周为30.3%），分位值为59.9%（上周为60.9%）；其中，中平价（转 股价值为90至110元之间）可转债的转股溢价率为24.2%（上周为23.4%），高于2018年以来中平价转债转 股溢价率的中位数（19.8%）。 3、可转债表现和配置方向 本周转债市场继续回暖，本周中证转债指数录得+1.1%涨幅。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is experiencing significant growth, driven by a recovering stock market, with a transaction volume exceeding 6 trillion yuan and a year-on-year increase of over 28% as of June 6 [1] Market Performance - The convertible bond market has shown steady performance, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 4.67% year-to-date, compared to a 1% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [3] - As of June 6, the total outstanding convertible bonds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 674.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 59.56 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [2] - In 2023, the total issuance of convertible bonds reached 143.33 billion yuan, while in 2024, it is projected to be 36.76 billion yuan [2] Valuation Outlook - The average price of convertible bonds is currently at 134.01 yuan, with an average conversion premium of 44.9%, indicating a "high price, high premium" characteristic [4] - The scarcity of bank convertible bonds is expected to increase their valuation, with several bonds nearing redemption triggers [5] Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest maintaining a neutral position in convertible bonds, focusing on those with higher yield to maturity (YTM) and lower conversion premiums [6] - Investment opportunities should prioritize growth-themed stocks and consider bonds nearing maturity while avoiding low-liquidity, low-priced bonds [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond valuation first declined and then rebounded, remaining relatively strong, due to the active small - cap style and prominent supply - demand contradiction. The "calendar effect" was not obvious in April 2025, with the small - cap style remaining active. The convertible bond valuation showed significant differentiation in high - low ratings and large - small caps, with balanced and equity - biased valuations remaining firm, while bond - biased convertible bond valuations declined significantly [3][21]. - In 2024, the number of convertible bonds with losses increased, and the power equipment industry started to incur large - scale losses. Convertible bonds with continuous losses or large first - time losses have a higher probability of rating downgrades. Although the risk of rating downgrades for photovoltaic convertible bonds that have received letters of concern is expected to be controllable, individual cases still need attention [3]. - Appropriate layout of underlying stocks, trading rules, and position ratio settings can enhance the returns of the near - maturity strategy. However, after adding position settings, the average return increases, but so does the maximum drawdown, so the overall position limit for the near - maturity strategy of underlying stocks should be moderately reduced [3]. - The top ten convertible bond portfolio for May includes high - dividend varieties (Shangyin, Lantian, Lvyin), high - growth performance directions (Guangda, Yangfeng), technology directions (Dinglong), robot directions (Huitong and Baolong), and directions with stable main businesses and elasticity (Wankai and Huayang) [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 4 - month Convertible Bond Market Review - In April, the median convertible bond price reached a low of 115 yuan, and there was no obvious differentiation between high - and low - priced bonds. The convertible bond price differentiation was not obvious in terms of large - small caps and high - low ratings, but was obvious in theme styles, with the financial and real estate sectors leading the gains [6][8][12]. - The small - cap style was active in April, and the "calendar effect" was not obvious. The convertible bonds outperformed the underlying stocks due to their defensive properties and recovered the "lost ground" since the beginning of the year [17][18]. - The convertible bond valuation first declined and then rebounded, remaining relatively strong. It showed significant differentiation in high - low ratings and large - small caps, and the core of the differentiation lies in the difference in the bottom - up value. The valuation supported high - priced bonds but dragged down low - priced bonds [21][24][30]. 3.2 5 - month Convertible Bond Market Outlook - As of the end of April, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale reached 689 billion yuan, ending a 19 - month decline. However, according to historical issuance patterns, the issuance volume in May may be limited, and the outstanding scale is likely to continue to decline. A new issuance peak may occur from October to November, and the top three industries in terms of issuance scale in the "exchange - accepted" state are banking, power equipment, and public utilities [43]. - The performance of convertible bonds in 2024 was generally poor, with an increase in the number of loss - making convertible bonds, especially in the power equipment industry. Convertible bonds with continuous losses or large first - time losses have a higher probability of rating downgrades. Although the risk of rating downgrades for photovoltaic convertible bonds that have received letters of concern is expected to be controllable, other industries' convertible bonds with continuous losses or losses exceeding 500 million yuan need close attention [55][61][69]. 3.3 Fund's Convertible Bond Holdings in 2025Q1 - By the end of 2025Q1, the total market value of the convertible bond market (including exchangeable bonds) was approximately 815.9 billion yuan. The total net value of funds within the statistical scope was 31.13 trillion yuan. The ratio of convertible bond market value to fund total market value was about 2.62%. All funds held convertible bonds worth approximately 281.99 billion yuan, accounting for 34.56% of the total convertible bond market value, an increase of 0.96 percentage points from the previous quarter [75]. - The convertible bond positions of funds decreased quarter - on - quarter. Structurally, the convertible bond positions of secondary bond funds decreased, while those of primary bond funds and convertible bond funds increased. The convertible bond positions of different types of funds showed different trends [77][84]. - Funds increased their holdings of photovoltaic convertible bonds. Different - scale funds had different preferences for increasing or decreasing their holdings of convertible bonds [88][90]. - At the end of 2025Q1, the convertible bond holdings of partial - debt hybrid, ordinary stock - type, and primary bond funds were concentrated in the balanced area. The equity - related demands of primary and secondary bond funds for convertible bonds increased [94]. 3.4 Near - Maturity Convertible Bond Strategy and Monthly Top Ten Combinations - The proportion of near - maturity convertible bonds (defined as those with a static remaining term of less than 2 years) has significantly increased, accounting for 29.41% of the total number of convertible bonds in the market. Convertible bonds with individual actual controllers have a higher proportion and more significant conversion - promotion effects [101]. - The timing of participating in near - maturity convertible bonds involves a trade - off between win - rate and cost - effectiveness. Buying at a lower price closer to the redemption price is associated with a higher win - rate and average return [110][112]. - Appropriate layout of underlying stocks, trading rules, and position ratio settings can enhance the returns of the near - maturity strategy. After adding position settings, the average return increases to 14.98%, but the maximum drawdown also rises significantly, so the overall position limit should be moderately reduced [114][117]. - The top ten convertible bond portfolio for May includes high - dividend varieties (Shangyin, Lantian, Lvyin), high - growth performance directions (Guangda, Yangfeng), technology directions (Dinglong), robot directions (Huitong and Baolong), and directions with stable main businesses and elasticity (Wankai and Huayang) [118].