Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing fluctuations due to expectations of increased production by OPEC, supply surplus from the resumption of oil exports in the Kurdish region of Iraq, and geopolitical risks affecting supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - As of September 30, international oil prices declined, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil settling at $62.37 per barrel, down $1.08 (1.70%), and Brent crude oil at $67.02 per barrel, down $0.95 (1.40%) [1]. - In September, WTI crude oil saw a cumulative decline of 1.72%, while Brent crude oil had a slight increase of 0.19% [1]. - Year-to-date, WTI crude oil has decreased by 7.06%, and Brent crude oil has decreased by 6.93% [1]. Group 2: OPEC's Production Strategy - OPEC is set to meet to discuss accelerating production increases, potentially adding 500,000 barrels per day over three months to regain market share [1][2]. - The International Energy Agency predicts a record surplus in the global oil market next year, with significant oversupply expected in Q1 2024 [1][3]. - The U.S. crude oil production surpassed 13.6 million barrels per day in July, exceeding previous forecasts [1]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Supply Dynamics - Recent drone attacks in Ukraine have raised supply risks, while the potential for a peace agreement in Gaza could normalize shipping through the Suez Canal, reducing geopolitical risk premiums [2][4]. - The oil market is transitioning from a supply-driven model to one influenced by demand and risk factors, reflecting a rebalancing of military, energy, and monetary soft power [2][3]. Group 4: Soft Power and Market Dynamics - OPEC's mechanical production increase strategy is seen as weakening its value innovation capabilities, with the proposed phased increase reflecting an attempt to rebuild market trust [3][4]. - The U.S. shale oil industry is leveraging digital technologies to achieve cost advantages, with production costs dropping to $26.94 per barrel [3]. - The International Energy Agency forecasts a surplus of 1.9 million barrels per day by 2026, indicating a shift in market dynamics driven by consumer countries [3].

Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions arising from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have led to Russia restricting fuel exports, highlighting the value of oil as a strategic resource in the current crisis [1][2] - Oil prices have increased significantly, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil closing at $65.72 per barrel, up 1.14%, and Brent crude oil at $70.13 per barrel, up 1.02%, reflecting a cumulative weekly increase of 5.32% and 5.17% respectively [1] - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister announced a partial ban on diesel exports until the end of the year, alongside an extension of the gasoline export ban, indicating a response to declining refining capacity and creating supply shortages in certain regions [1][2] Group 1: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - The rise in oil prices is attributed to the reassessment of oil's soft power attributes under crisis conditions, with Russia leveraging its position as a major diesel exporter to enhance its bargaining power [2][3] - The geopolitical risk premium has steadily increased over the past two months due to intensified drone attacks, evolving into actual supply shortages that adversely affect Europe, which is structurally lacking in distillate oil [1][2] - NATO's warnings regarding further incursions into its airspace have heightened tensions and increased the likelihood of additional sanctions on the Russian oil sector [1] Group 2: Soft Power and Strategic Implications - Russia's export bans serve multiple strategic purposes: resource deterrence, rule-making in the energy market, and using the situation as leverage against Western price cap mechanisms [2][3] - The soft power theory posits that resource control is central to soft power, with Russia's actions reflecting a transformation of hard power conflicts into influence over global energy market rules [3] - The current geopolitical landscape reveals an asymmetry in energy soft power, with Russia gaining market pricing power through supply contraction, while Europe faces challenges in strategic reserves and energy transition [3] Group 3: Future Energy Landscape - The global refining distribution is imbalanced, with a 15% disparity in utilization rates between Eurasian refineries, amplifying regional vulnerabilities [4] - The emergence of drone technology as a tool for non-state actors in the energy soft power game indicates a shift in how conflicts can influence market dynamics [4] - Russia's strategic use of energy as leverage in political negotiations highlights the evolving nature of energy soft power in the context of international relations [4]

Market Overview - As of September 25, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has raised potential supply risks, coupled with a decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude futures for November rose by $1.58 to $64.99 per barrel, a 2.49% increase; ICE Brent futures for November increased by $1.68 to $69.31 per barrel, also a 2.48% rise [1] Important Information - Global diesel supply tightness has surged due to Ukraine's 23 drone attacks on Russian refineries since August, the approaching maintenance season in the Northern Hemisphere, and potential export controls from Russia. Russian refining output has dropped to an average of less than 5 million barrels per day, the lowest since April 2022, and over 7% below seasonal averages. The market is seeing a record high in net long positions in ICE European diesel, with significant bullish options trading concentrated in the $700-750 per ton range for October [2] - In August, crude oil imports from Indonesia to China surged to 2.7 million tons, approximately 630,000 barrels per day, tripling from July and exceeding Indonesia's last year's average production of 580,000 barrels per day. This indicates a new route for Iranian shipments through third-party resales [2] - Hungary's Foreign Minister stated that Hungary will not cease purchasing Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline, despite pressure from Trump, citing the country's landlocked status and lack of port refining and LNG facilities [2] Production and Export Dynamics - Chevron's production in its joint venture projects in Venezuela is limited to about 50% for export due to new U.S. regulations. The joint venture must pay taxes and royalties in crude oil, which is received by the state-owned PDVSA for domestic refining or re-export [3] - Indian refineries are increasing export capacity due to new production and an increase in the gasoline-ethanol blending ratio from 12% in 2023 to 20% this year. Wood Mackenzie forecasts that by 2025, India's crude processing capacity will rise to approximately 5.51 million barrels per day, with gasoline exports reaching about 400,000 barrels per day and diesel exports increasing to 610,000-630,000 barrels per day [3] Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - The recent rise in oil prices is primarily driven by heightened concerns over supply tightening, particularly due to geopolitical risks. The attacks on Russian refining and export facilities have intensified worries about disruptions in Russian crude and product supplies, as evidenced by the significant strengthening of diesel crack spreads and increased trader bets on price rises [4] - The unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories, along with lower gasoline and distillate stocks, continues to support demand in the market. The current market focus has shifted from long-term macro demand concerns to immediate geopolitical risks, providing short-term support for oil prices [4] Trading Recommendations - The recommendation is to focus on single-sided swing trading, with WTI expected to trade in the range of $60 to $66, Brent between $64 and $69, and SC between 471 and 502 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have continued to rise, reaching new highs after a brief pullback following the recent Federal Reserve rate cut, supported by factors such as a weakening U.S. economy, global de-dollarization trends, and geopolitical risk premiums [1][6]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% during the September FOMC meeting, with a vote of 11 in favor and 1 against [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments were hawkish, acknowledging a cooling labor market while emphasizing that the rate cut was a risk management decision [3]. Economic Indicators - The Leading Economic Index for August fell by 0.5% to 98.4, marking the largest decline since April and indicating a continued slowdown in economic activity [6]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts appear to be higher than the Fed's projections, with current rate futures implying rates about 0.5% lower than the Fed's dot plot median for the end of next year [3]. De-dollarization Trends - Central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, have been increasing gold reserves, with China adding gold for the tenth consecutive month as of August [6]. Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the lack of progress in U.S. mediation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating violence in Gaza, contribute to the risk premium in gold prices [6]. Investment Opportunities - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains strong, and investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in gold ETFs and gold stock ETFs during market pullbacks [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index Futures**: A-shares are experiencing an oscillating rebound with the technology sector leading the way. After a significant rally, A-shares may enter a high-level oscillating pattern. Wait for the volatility to further converge before confirming a better entry point [2][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment remains weak due to the tightening of funds. The short - term bond market may still be sensitive to negative news. Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the movement of funds and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy [5][7]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical events and interest - rate cut expectations have been digested. Precious metals are in a high - level oscillating state. Gold is recommended to be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver can be traded in a band within the range of $40 - 42 [8][9][10]. - **Container Shipping Futures**: The market is expected to be weakly oscillating. Consider shorting the October contract or engaging in a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [11][12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: The price is expected to oscillate. The short - term interest - rate cut boosts the financial attribute of copper, but the upside is limited. The long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support [13][17]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Mid - term, consider shorting at high prices. The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to oscillate widely around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand. The macro - environment provides support, while the fundamental improvement is not strong [21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum and the inflection point of inventory [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply is expected to be loose, and the price upside is limited, while the low inventory provides support [25][28]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to oscillate widely. The supply is tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the import of tin ore from Myanmar [28][31]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to adjust within a range. The macro - environment is generally stable, and the cost provides some support, but the mid - term supply is abundant [31][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. The raw material cost provides support, but the demand is weak [34][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the market is affected by news [38][41]. - **Black Metals**: - **Steel**: The steel price is weak. The rebar and hot - rolled coil should pay attention to the support levels around 3100 and 3300 respectively. The steel supply and demand have not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage [41][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish. The supply is expected to recover, and the demand will increase. The low - level port inventory provides support [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is expected to oscillate. The coal mines are resuming production, and the supply and demand are easing. The price may continue to decline in September [47][49]. - **Coke**: The price is expected to oscillate. The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and there is still room for further cuts. The supply will gradually become loose [50][52]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Meal Products**: The high - yield expectation of US soybeans suppresses the price, but the domestic cost provides support. The downside of domestic meal products is limited [53][55]. - **Live Pigs**: The market supply - demand contradiction is limited. The price has limited room to fall, but the overall supply - demand pressure is still large [56][57]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand of corn are weak, and the price is under pressure. The mid - term trend is weak [58][59]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Financial Futures**: - **Equity Index Futures**: A-shares showed an oscillating rebound on Wednesday. The TMT sector was strong, while the chemical sector corrected. The four major equity index futures contracts had mixed performances. The market is affected by domestic and overseas news, and the monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose. The capital is tightening, and the bond market sentiment is weak. Pay attention to the central bank's subsequent attitude [5][6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: US 8 - month PPI data was lower than expected, and the demand for the 10 - year Treasury bond auction was strong. Gold and silver prices showed a high - level oscillation. The Fed's policy path and geopolitical events affect the price. Gold is recommended to be bought cautiously at low prices, and silver can be traded in a band [8][9][10]. - **Container Shipping Futures**: The spot price of container shipping continued to decline slowly. The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index showed different trends. The supply of container ships increased, and the demand was affected by the PMI of different regions. The futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating [11][12]. Commodity Futures - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: The spot price of copper declined slightly. The US 8 - month PPI data boosted the interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of copper concentrate was tight, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory situation was mixed. The copper price is affected by the macro - environment and fundamentals, and is expected to oscillate [13][15][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina declined. The supply was high, the demand was weak, and the inventory was increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and consider shorting at high prices in the mid - term [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum declined slightly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum was high, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory situation was mixed. The aluminum price is affected by the macro - environment and fundamentals, and is expected to oscillate around the peak - season demand [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy was stable. The supply was affected by the season, and the demand was marginally improved. The inventory was increasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc declined. The supply of zinc ore was loose, and the demand was about to enter the peak season. The inventory situation was mixed. The zinc price is expected to oscillate, and the upside is limited [25][27][28]. - **Tin**: The spot price of tin declined slightly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and pay attention to the import of tin ore from Myanmar [28][30][31]. - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel declined. The supply of refined nickel was high, and the demand was stable in some sectors and weak in others. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to adjust within a range [31][32][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel was stable. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The inventory was slowly decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, and pay attention to the raw material and demand [34][36][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate declined. The supply was affected by various factors, and the demand was stable. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, and pay attention to the news [38][39][41]. - **Black Metals**: - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The cost and profit situation of steel changed. The supply was affected by production restrictions and was expected to recover. The demand was in the off - season and was expected to improve seasonally. The inventory was increasing. The steel price is expected to be affected by the supply of coking coal [41][42][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore declined slightly. The futures price was stable. The supply decreased significantly, and the demand was expected to increase. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price of coking coal declined. The supply was affected by production restrictions and was expected to recover. The demand was expected to increase. The inventory was decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and decline in September [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The futures price of coke had a mixed performance. The first - round price cut was implemented, and there was still room for further cuts. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to recover. The inventory situation was mixed. The price is expected to oscillate [50][51][52]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Meal Products**: The domestic spot price of soybean meal declined slightly, and the trading volume increased. The spot price of rapeseed meal was stable, and the trading volume was zero. The high - yield expectation of US soybeans and various supply - demand factors affected the price. The domestic cost provides support [53][54][55]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs declined slightly. The inventory of breeding sows increased slightly, and the profit of different breeding modes changed. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the price has limited room to fall [56][57]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn had different trends in different regions. The inventory of old - season corn was tight, and the new - season corn was about to be listed. The demand was weak. The short - term supply and demand are weak, and the mid - term trend is weak [58][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda futures price may have limited downside space. The spot price may remain firm in the short - term due to low inventory pressure on caustic soda enterprises and expected supply decline. Attention should be paid to the alumina plant's purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [2]. - The PVC futures price will continue to be weakly volatile. The supply - demand pressure increases, and the demand has not improved. Although in the traditional peak season, the demand remains sluggish. The cost side provides some support [2]. Methanol Industry - On the supply side, inland maintenance devices are expected to gradually resume in early September, and the import volume will still be large. On the demand side, traditional downstream sectors are still weak. The port has been significantly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weak. The key is to focus on the inventory digestion rhythm [5]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the short - term imbalance of domestic supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is abundant, while the demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation in factories [11]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price continued to fluctuate widely. The current oil price is supported by geopolitical premiums, but the upside space is restricted by the loose fundamentals. It is recommended to mainly observe on the long - short side and wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [44]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. The price has support at the low level, but the upside space of the rebound is limited. It is recommended to treat PX11 as a short - term shock between 6600 - 6900 [39]. - PTA: The supply - demand in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited. It is recommended to treat TA as a short - term shock between 4600 - 4800 and mainly conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spreads [39]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. It is expected to slightly reduce inventory in September and enter the inventory accumulation channel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the support of EG01 at around 4300 and the EG1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [39]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is still weak, following the raw material fluctuations. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [39]. - Bottle chips: In September, the supply and demand may both decrease, and the inventory is expected to increase. PR follows the cost fluctuations, and the processing fee has limited upside space [39]. Polyolefin Industry - For PP, the loss of PDH is intensifying, and the basis has weakened rapidly. For PE, the current maintenance is still at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure is relatively limited in the short - term. The overall market will present a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand" [49][51]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The supply in September is lower than expected, and the demand support is weakening. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is driven by the strong oil price. BZ2603 is expected to follow styrene and fluctuate strongly [57]. - Styrene: The short - term drive is weak, but the supply - demand is expected to improve in the future. The price is supported by the oil price, but the rebound space is limited by high inventory. EB10 can be treated with low - buying on a rolling basis, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7200 and the spread expansion between EB11 - BZ11 [57]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: The spot prices of caustic soda and PVC remained stable on September 10, while the futures prices showed different degrees of changes. For example, SH2509 of caustic soda increased by 7.0%, and V2509 of PVC increased by 0.1% [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate is expected to decline next week due to maintenance. The PVC supply has an upward expectation as some device maintenance is restored [2]. - **Demand**: The demand for caustic soda is expected to weaken, especially from the alumina industry. The PVC demand has not improved, and downstream product enterprises maintain a low operating rate [2]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the methanol futures and spot prices showed different degrees of increase. For example, MA2601 increased by 0.38%, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 1.31% [4]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased. The port inventory increased by 8.59% [4]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates increased, while some downstream operating rates decreased, such as the formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid operating rates [5]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: The urea futures price is running weakly. The spot prices in different regions showed little change on September 10 [11]. - **Supply**: The daily output of urea remains at a high level, and some maintenance devices are expected to resume production [11]. - **Demand**: The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is for rigid procurement, resulting in insufficient total demand [11]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory increased, while the port inventory remained unchanged [11]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On September 11, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased slightly. The spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [44]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: According to EIA data, the U.S. crude oil production, refinery operating rate, and various inventory changes are shown in the report [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On September 10, the prices of upstream crude oil, naphtha, and PX increased slightly, while the prices of some downstream polyester products decreased, such as the polyester bottle chip price [39]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products showed different degrees of changes. For example, the Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.9% [39]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory is at a low level, and the arrival volume in early September is moderately low [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed small changes, and the spot prices remained stable [49]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased slightly, and the PP device operating rate increased. The downstream weighted operating rates of both increased slightly [49]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased. The PP trader inventory increased [49]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the prices of upstream crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene increased slightly, while the price of styrene remained stable [57]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of some pure benzene and styrene downstream products decreased, while the styrene operating rate increased [57]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased [57].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that oil prices are unlikely to see significant upward momentum this year due to increased domestic production and the threat of U.S. tariffs suppressing demand growth [1][2] - A Reuters survey of 31 economists and analysts predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil will be $67.65 per barrel in 2025, which is similar to the July forecast of $67.84 [1] - WTI crude oil is expected to average $64.65 per barrel, slightly up from the previous estimate of $64.61 [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, with expectations that they may continue to raise output [2] - Analysts suggest that the focus on market share over higher oil prices could lead to significant oversupply in the oil market in 2025 and 2026, which would depress prices [2] - The geopolitical risks, particularly related to the U.S. and Russia, are expected to provide some support for oil prices despite the anticipated oversupply [2][3] Group 3 - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 500,000 to 1.1 million barrels per day by 2025, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting a growth of 680,000 barrels per day [2] - OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth for next year while lowering estimates for supply growth from the U.S. and other non-OPEC+ producers [2]

Group 1 - International oil prices declined due to geopolitical risks and macroeconomic data, with NYMEX light crude oil futures for September dropping by $1.16 to $62.80 per barrel, a decrease of 1.81%, and Brent crude for October falling by $0.99 to $65.85 per barrel, down 1.48% [1] - Analysts from Saxo Bank indicated that geopolitical risk premiums related to the US-Russia leaders' meeting are a significant driver of oil prices, suggesting that unless talks break down severely, macroeconomic factors may continue to limit oil price increases [1] - MUFG analysts noted that any changes in US sanctions on Russia could reshape the disrupted oil trade due to the Ukraine conflict, with Russia increasingly relying on discounted oil exports to China and India [1] Group 2 - UBS analysts highlighted that market focus is on the potential for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, with expectations shifting towards increased Russian production [2] - Even if a ceasefire is achieved, the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may take longer due to the need for Congressional approval [2] - The US Department of Commerce reported that retail and food service sales in July amounted to $726.3 billion, a 0.5% month-over-month increase, which was in line with market expectations but lower than June's 0.9% increase [2] Group 3 - Market participants believe that macroeconomic data released by China on the same day contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices [3] - Baker Hughes reported that the number of active oil rigs in the US increased by one to 412, but this represents a year-over-year decrease of 71 rigs, while Canada saw an increase of four rigs to 126, also down 25 rigs year-over-year [3]

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced the largest weekly decline since late June, with US oil dropping by 5.12% and Brent oil by 4.42% [1][3] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical risk premium easing as the market anticipates a potential meeting between US and Russian leaders regarding a peace agreement in Ukraine, along with OPEC+ planning to increase production in September [3] Group 2 - International gold prices rose by 2.69% last week, driven by market optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following the nomination of a new board member [3] - The increase in gold prices is also influenced by trade policy impacts, as two Swiss gold refineries have reduced or suspended gold exports to the US [3]

Group 1: Oil Market - International oil prices experienced the largest weekly decline since late June, with U.S. oil dropping by 5.12% and Brent oil by 4.42% last week [3] - The decline in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical factors, including the anticipation of a potential meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders, which raised hopes for a peace agreement in Ukraine, leading to a reduction in geopolitical risk premium [3] - Additionally, the "OPEC+" group is expected to increase production in September, further contributing to the downward pressure on oil prices [3] Group 2: Gold Market - International gold prices rose by 2.69% last week, driven by multiple factors including the U.S. government's nomination for a vacant Federal Reserve board position, which has increased market optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Fed [6] - Tariff policies have also impacted the gold market, with two Swiss gold refining companies reducing or halting gold exports to the U.S., contributing to the upward movement in gold prices [6]