今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第6个工作日，当前预计油价下调115元/吨，折合每升油价下调0.09-0.10 元，相比昨日的油价预计跌幅增加20元/吨，超下调红线，油价有下跌可能。 注意，油价下跌中 注意，国际油价已经三连跌了，市场对全球原油供应过剩的担忧持续发酵，压制油价下行。不过美国对 委内瑞拉制裁升级导致的供应中断担忧，以及昨日走低的美元指数，还是限制了油价的跌幅。 这边说下昨日原油市场的表现，美原油：下跌1.43%，收于56.52美元/桶。布伦特原油下跌1.31%，收于 60.37美元/桶。今日国际油价继续震荡，截至发稿，美原油暂报56.51美元/桶，跌幅0.30%。 据外媒消息，美国总统特朗普称现在比以往任何时候都更接近达成"和平协议"。而乌克兰总统泽连斯基 也称谈判富有成效，但美乌双方在领土方面立场不同。市场对"和平协议即将达成"的预期继续升温，削 弱了原油的地缘政治风险溢价。 本轮油价会跌多少，让我们持续关注~ 本轮油价调整时间：12月22日24时 | 地区 | 92号汽油 | 95号汽油 | 98号汽油 | 0号柴油 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京 | ...

来源：滚动播报 原油期货价格回落，此前已连续三个交易日上涨。市场目前仍在充裕供应与地缘政治风险溢价之间寻求 平衡。Ritterbusch and Associates在报告中指出："全球石油市场的看跌基本面正缓慢转化为更清晰的可 见性，尤其是在美国。本周油价将受到多重因素扰动——不仅包括俄乌冲突和委内瑞拉局势等地缘政治 头条新闻引发的风险情绪波动，还将受美联储利率决议影响，后者将对需求前景产生重要影响。"尽管 地缘紧张局势持续提供支撑，但疲软的基本面和即将公布的美联储政策决定令市场承压，投资者谨慎评 估未来能源需求前景。 ...

邓正红软实力表示，市场评估俄乌和平协议谈判以及两国之间冲突的走向，担忧供应过剩，石油软实力承压运行，12月2日（周二）国际油价走低。截至收 盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油1月期货结算价每桶跌0.68元至58.64美元，跌幅1.15%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2月期货结算价每桶跌0.72 美元至62.45美元，跌幅1.14%。在供应过剩的全球格局中，近期对价格构成压力的动向，与周末期间加剧的针对俄罗斯基础设施的袭击以及美国与委内瑞拉 之间不断升温的紧张局势形成了平衡，随着俄罗斯籍船只也成为袭击目标，地缘政治风险溢价在过去几个交易日有所上升。 俄罗斯石油生产商正面临困境，在原油价格下跌、制裁和货币走强的背景下举步维艰。俄罗斯总统普京发出威胁，可能对在冲突中援助乌克兰的国家的船只 采取报复措施。但普京也强调了俄罗斯经济增长的必要性，在另一个场合称政府对一些行业出现的不平衡现象不满意。分析指出，市场对油价下跌的广泛预 期仍然占据主导地位。流动性正在迅速枯竭，鉴于当前悲观的市场情绪，这加剧了原油价格大幅下跌的风险。美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据显示，截至 12 月 1 日（周一），至少有 30 个州的汽油平均零 ...

国际油价走势与市场反应。从压力看，油价受地缘政治和供应过剩双重影响。一方面，CPC管道遭袭和委内瑞拉风险推高价格；另一方面，全球供应过剩限 制涨幅。从历史数据来看，12月的油价涨跌互现，缺乏明显的方向性。地缘风险事件往往导致短期波动，但长期仍受供需基本面影响。从市场预期看，分析 师认为，当前油价每桶已包含5~8美元的地缘溢价，若冲突持续该溢价可能扩大。 邓正红软实力思想深刻揭示了当前国际石油市场的地缘政治风险本质，一是规则主导权转移。能源竞争已从资源控制转向规则重构、预期管理和价值创新。 产油国通过产量政策调整传递"可控供应"信号，强化市场主导权。二是风险溢价持续。在CPC管道修复和委内瑞拉局势明朗前，地缘风险溢价将维持，支撑 油价高于基本面水平。三是长期转型趋势。未来竞争焦点将转向低碳技术、金融规则重构及气候叙事主导权等领域，传统资源控制的重要性相对下降。四是 市场适应机制。石油市场正从硬实力向软实力博弈转型，参与者需更加关注规则制定、预期管理等非物质化能力提升。当前国际石油市场的波动充分体现了 邓正红软实力理论的前瞻性，为理解复杂多变的能源格局提供了有力工具。未来，随着地缘政治风险的演变和能源变革的推进， ...

川普：我知道我要选谁当美联储主席，很快就会宣布。 美乌新一轮会谈结束，鲁比奥称富有成效但强调仍有工作要做。 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：如果被提名担任美联储主席，"将非常乐意任职"。 芝商所上周五一度因某数据中心的冷却系统问题经历持续数小时的故障。 12月1日 资讯分享 上周五，芝商所上周五因数据中心故障"拔网线"，现货黄金波动剧烈，并在恢复报价后重回4200美元上 方，最终收涨1.49%，报4218.77美元/盎司。 因投资者在俄乌和谈久拖不决的背景下权衡油市的地缘政治风险溢价，国际原油创2023年以来最长月度 连跌记录。WTI原油最终收跌1.06%，报58.56美元/桶；布伦特原油最终收跌0.99%，报62.89美元/桶。 川普：撤销拜登通过自动签名装置签署的所有文件。 川普：不要过度解读美国关闭委内瑞拉领空的举动。这并不意味着空袭迫在眉睫；美战机在委海岸附近 盘旋，委内瑞拉启动军演应对"封锁空域"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged past $4200 per ounce, marking a historical high with a year-to-date increase of over 60%, prompting predictions from 36% of institutions that it could exceed $5000 by 2026 [3][4] Group 1: Drivers Behind Gold Price Surge - The initiation of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, with a 25 basis point reduction in September, lowering real interest rates to 1.2%, significantly reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Central banks globally have been accumulating gold, with annual purchases exceeding 1000 tons from 2022 to 2024, and a record increase of 217 tons in Q3 2025 [4] - Geopolitical risks have heightened demand for gold as a safe haven, with the U.S. debt surpassing $35 trillion and rising tensions in the Middle East, correlating the VIX fear index with gold prices at 0.78 [4] Group 2: Institutional Divergence - Bullish perspectives from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, with price targets raised to $4900 and $5000 respectively, supported by a 42% increase in gold ETF holdings since 2020 and over $18 trillion in negative-yielding bonds [4] - Cautious viewpoints from CITIC Securities and Dongfang Securities, highlighting potential short-term risks with gold prices at historical highs and the possibility of a 10%-15% correction [4] - A consensus among 93% of institutions recognizing gold's strategic position in the "de-dollarization" trend, with expectations that surpassing $5000 is merely a matter of time [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Recommended allocation of 10%-15% of household financial assets to gold for hedging against currency devaluation and systemic risks, with dynamic adjustments based on price movements [5] - Various investment tools are suggested, including physical gold for long-term holders, gold ETFs for traders, and accumulation gold for regular investors [5] - Emphasis on timing strategies, focusing on technical indicators and key events such as the December Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. election policies [5] Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold - The monetary attribute of gold is being reinforced as multiple central banks link digital currencies to gold reserves, with Russia holding 10% of its digital ruble in gold [6] - Industrial demand for gold is expected to rise, particularly in the 5G and renewable energy sectors, with projections of reaching 1200 tons by 2025 [6] - The financial attributes of gold are evolving, with a significant increase in gold futures and options products, anticipating a global derivatives market size exceeding $300 billion by 2025 [6]

Core Insights - The current expectation is for a reduction in domestic oil prices by 90 yuan per ton, translating to a decrease of 0.07-0.08 yuan per liter, with the decline potentially exceeding the threshold for price adjustments [1][4] - International oil prices have experienced a significant drop, influenced by geopolitical factors and market dynamics, with U.S. crude oil prices falling by 1.32% to $58.10 per barrel [4] Price Adjustments - The next round of oil price adjustments is scheduled for December 8 at 24:00 [5] - Current fuel prices in various regions are as follows: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 6.89, 95 gasoline at 7.33, 98 gasoline at 8.83, 0 diesel at 6.56 - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 6.85, 95 gasoline at 7.29, 98 gasoline at 9.19, 0 diesel at 6.50 - Other regions also show similar pricing trends [5][6] Market Dynamics - The geopolitical risk premium associated with the Russia-Ukraine situation has decreased, contributing to the recent drop in international oil prices [4] - The U.S. API crude oil inventory report indicated a decrease of 1.859 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of an increase, while gasoline and diesel inventories have risen [4] - Upcoming U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data and initial jobless claims are anticipated to further influence oil prices [4]

Core Insights - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates a decrease of 45 yuan/ton, with an increased expected drop of 5 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, remaining below the adjustment threshold [1] - International oil prices have experienced a significant drop due to geopolitical developments, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine situation, with expectations of a potential framework agreement by the end of the month [3] - The latest EIA data shows a reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.426 million barrels, contrasting with an expected decrease of 603,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 2 million barrels against an expected decrease [3] Oil Price Trends - As of the latest reports, U.S. crude oil is trading at $59.47 per barrel, showing a slight increase of 0.10% after a previous drop of 1.92% [3] - Brent crude oil also saw a decline of 1.74%, closing at $63.66 per barrel [3] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate are anticipated to influence further fluctuations in oil prices [3] Regional Fuel Prices - The new fuel price adjustments will take effect on November 24, with specific prices for various fuel types listed for major cities [4][5][6] - For example, in Beijing, the price for 92 octane gasoline is 6.94 yuan/liter, while 95 octane is priced at 7.39 yuan/liter [4] - Prices vary across regions, with notable differences in cities like Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu [5][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices remained volatile. News of potential negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on Thursday and the suspension of oil exports from Russia's Novorossiysk port due to an attack on Friday caused intraday fluctuations. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of oversupply and increased uncertainty regarding Russian sanctions risks. The US sanctions on Russia will take effect on November 21, and the short - term statements of the US and Russia will affect market expectations. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventories are accumulating, and global oil is slightly de - stocking. Due to high gasoline and diesel profits, the refinery operations in Europe and the US have recently recovered, while the overhaul rate of Middle - East refineries remains relatively high. In the short term, the interruption of Russian ports supports the Dubai monthly spread, but global supply pressure and potential OPEC production - increase plans limit the upside. In the short term, the monthly spread and absolute prices will maintain a volatile pattern. In the fourth quarter, the idea of shorting on rallies is maintained [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From November 13 - 19, 2025, WTI prices decreased by $1.30, BRENT by $1.38, and DUBAI by $0.54. SC increased by 5.70, and OMAN decreased by 1.22. Other related prices such as those of refined products and differentials also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - The Kremlin stated that it could arrange a call between Russian President Putin and US President Trump if necessary. News of the decline in the signal of the Russia - Ukraine peace process led to a drop in international oil prices. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in September reached a seven - month high, and production hit a two - and - a - half - year peak [3][4]. 3. Inventory - In the week of November 07, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 211,000 barrels, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 798,000 barrels, and commercial crude oil imports decreased by 702,000 barrels per day. UAE's Fujaidira Port's refined oil inventory increased by 3.204 million barrels in the week of November 12. Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters in the week of November 08. From November 7 - 13, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased [5].

Core Insights - The U.S. is reportedly pushing to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict and has drafted a peace framework, leading to a decline in international oil prices [1] - Analysts suggest that the resolution of the conflict could increase Russian oil exports, raising concerns about oversupply in the market [1] Oil Price Movement - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell over 2%, currently reported at $59.17 per barrel and $63.02 per barrel respectively [1] - Energy expert Scott Shelton from TPICAP indicated that if sanctioned Russian oil floods the market, prices could potentially drop to the lower end of the $50 range [1] Sanctions and Market Pressure - The U.S. announced sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, with a deadline for companies to cease business with them set for November 21 [1] - Janiv Shah, Vice President at Rystad Energy, noted that as the sanctions deadline approaches, the market is under significant pressure, and the decline in geopolitical risk premium will shift investor focus to weak supply-demand fundamentals [1]