Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, policy expectations, and supply - demand relationships across different sectors. Short - term market movements are often influenced by news and events, while long - term trends depend on fundamental factors [2][4]. Summary by Related Categories Stock Index - The index has stable lower support but faces pressure to break through the upper level. Tariff negotiations are ongoing, causing short - term fluctuations due to news. High dividends support the market, resulting in narrow - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see for now and try to sell out - of - the - money put options with a strike price of 5800 in July to earn premiums [2]. Treasury Bonds - With loose capital and strong market expectations for the central bank to restart bond purchases, the overall Treasury bond futures are rising, with the short - end being stronger. Attention should be paid to the content of the Lujiazui Forum. If expected policies are implemented, it may drive the curve to steepen bullishly. In the unilateral strategy, Treasury bond futures can be appropriately allocated with long positions on dips [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may approach the previous high of around $3450 (¥800) if the Israel - Iran conflict escalates again. If the safe - haven sentiment weakens and the price fails to break through the previous high, out - of - the - money call options on gold can be sold at high prices. Silver still has upward potential under inflation expectations influenced by the Middle East situation on energy prices [2]. Shipping Index - The EC2508 main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is oscillating narrowly in the range of 1900 - 2200. Unilateral operations should be on hold for now [2]. Steel - For industrial steel, demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the decline in hot metal production has narrowed, and the arrival volume has reached a high level. It can be shorted on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720. For coking coal, the market auction failure rate has decreased, coal mine production has declined from a high level, and the spot market is weakly stable with improved trading and better expectations. For coke, the third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further cuts, with the price approaching the bottom. Arbitrage strategies such as going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper shows weak momentum and narrow - range oscillations. Zinc's price center has moved down, and inventory depletion provides support. Nickel's sentiment is low, and the price continues to test lower levels, with little change in fundamentals. Stainless steel's price is in a downward trend, and its fundamentals are weak. For tin, attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery rhythm, and a short - selling strategy from high levels can be adopted based on inventory and import data inflection points [2]. Energy and Chemicals - For oil, due to high geopolitical uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see. WTI's upper resistance has expanded to [73, 74], and Brent's upper - end pressure is in [74, 75], while SC's pressure is in [540, 550]. For urea, there is short - term technical correction pressure, and the upside space needs to be verified by news. For PX, short - term support is strong, and short - long positions can be taken, while considering narrowing the PX - SC spread. For PTA, it is slightly bullish in a narrow - range oscillation, and short - long positions are recommended, along with arbitrage strategies. For PF, short - term processing fees have slightly recovered but with limited momentum. For bottle chips, processing fees may bottom - out and rebound during the peak demand season. For ethylene glycol, the shutdown of Iranian plants has boosted the price, and short - term attention should be paid to the 4450 pressure. For styrene, short - term energy disturbances cause oscillating and repeating movements, and mid - term short - selling opportunities based on raw material resonance should be sought. For caustic soda, the alumina purchase price has continuously declined, and the market is looking for a bottom. For PVC, short - term contradictions are not intensified, and it is in a low - level consolidation phase. For synthetic rubber, it has stopped falling and rebounded due to international geopolitical conflicts. For LLDPE, the spot price has risen slightly with neutral trading. For PP, it is in a weak supply - demand situation and oscillates weakly. For methanol, inventory continues to accumulate, and the basis is stable [2][4]. Agricultural Products - For grains and oilseeds, the new US soybean crop is in good condition, and the market oscillates. For hogs, due to weakening demand in hot weather, the price oscillates slightly. For corn, it lacks the power to continue rising and oscillates at a high level. For palm oil, it is expected to optimistically hit 8500 points in the short term. For sugar, overseas supply is expected to be loose, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended. For cotton, the downstream market is weak, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable. For eggs, the spot market is weak, with a bottom - rebound and then short - selling trend. For apples, trading is weak. For dates, the market price is weakly stable. For peanuts, the market price is high. For soda ash, the oversupply logic persists, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, the spot market sales have improved, and the short - term market has support. For rubber, the continuous rebound of crude oil has driven up the rubber price. For industrial silicon, the futures are oscillating in a low - level range [2][3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, futures have declined with reduced positions. For lithium, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since May, the bond market has been in a volatile pattern. Despite the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, concerns about bank liabilities have increased, and the Sino-US trade agreement has also put some pressure on long-term bonds. However, the central bank's intention to stabilize funds is clear, and the expectation of restarting bond purchases is rising. In June, the interest rate curve is expected to steepen downward [2]. - Although there are still fluctuations in funds after the reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the process of funds rates returning to policy rates continues. In early June, funds have loosened as expected. The central bank's disclosure of the scale and time of outright repurchase is conducive to reducing unnecessary market fluctuations and releasing a signal of stabilizing the funds market. The market believes that the 1 trillion outright reverse repurchase on June 6 also aims to supplement the medium - and long - term liquidity of banks. Whether this is the case depends on whether the central bank conducts another tender within the month. Even without such operations, the bank's liability pressure is expected to ease in June [2]. - Although DR007 was still above 1.5% last week, the overnight rate has dropped to the range of 1.4% - 1.5%. The widening spread between the two may be related to the increase in bank lending. The overnight rate is expected to drop to around 1.4% in June. The inflection point of the certificate of deposit (CD) rate may have appeared and is expected to continue to decline. - The central bank's disclosure of the liquidity injection situation of various tools in May has limited help in judging the subsequent funds situation. The decline in the central bank's claims on the government from January to April may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds without renewal or the closing of short - term bond short - selling positions. Although the central bank's bond - buying cannot be used as a baseline expectation, it is difficult to disprove in the short term, and the decline in short - term interest rates may not be over [2][3]. - Recent high - frequency data shows that the economy has not improved significantly. The sales area of new and second - hand houses has declined, and the prices of black commodities remain weak. The export growth rate in May dropped to 4.8%. Considering the potential increase in domestic fundamental pressure after the peak season, the overall environment for the bond market is still favorable. The short - end decline will also create space for the long - end. In the short term, the curve may continue the bull - steepening trend. It is recommended to maintain a combination of 3 - year policy financial bonds and 10 - year interest - rate bonds and appropriately increase the leverage to hold 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [3]. Summary by Directory I. The central bank sends a signal to stabilize the market. The overnight rate is expected to remain low, and the inflection point of the CD rate may have appeared - Since March, the process of funds rates returning to policy rates has continued. In early June, funds loosened as expected. The central bank's disclosure of the scale and time of outright repurchase can reduce unnecessary market fluctuations and release a signal of stabilizing the funds market [7]. - The 1 trillion outright reverse repurchase on June 6 supplements the medium - term liquidity of banks and is considered beneficial to alleviating the bank's liability pressure. However, considering that 1.2 trillion of outright reverse repurchases will mature in June, whether the central bank has the intention to further supplement liquidity depends on whether it conducts another tender within the month. Even without such operations, the bank's liability pressure is expected to ease in June due to weak credit demand and a marginal decline in government bond supply [10]. - In the first week of June, DR007 remained above 1.5%, while the overnight rate dropped to the range of 1.4% - 1.5%. The central bank seems to pay more attention to controlling the overnight rate, and the overnight rate is expected to drop to around 1.4% in June. With the overnight rate remaining low, the demand for CDs from non - bank institutions has been significantly released, and the CD rate is expected to continue to approach 1.6% [12][15][17]. II. The central bank's bond - buying cannot be used as a baseline expectation, but it is difficult to disprove and still benefits the medium - and short - term bonds - The central bank's disclosure of the "Liquidity Injection and Withdrawal of Central Bank Tools in May 2025" is considered an attempt to increase policy transparency. However, since June 2024, the deviation between the central bank's claims on other depository corporations and high - frequency operations has increased significantly, and the relatively small changes in structural tools in May are difficult to explain this deviation. The relationship between excess reserves and bank lending has also weakened, so the disclosure of monthly information on central bank tools has limited help in judging the subsequent funds situation [21][24]. - The disclosure of the scale of outright bond purchases and sales in the open market may not include maturity and roll - over. The decline in the central bank's claims on the government from January to April may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds without renewal or the closing of short - term bond short - selling positions. Which reason is more likely needs to be observed from whether the relevant accounts continue to decline in May [26][28]. - Although the increase in the net purchase of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years by large - scale banks last week has led to an increase in the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases, it may also be the banks' own operations. The central bank's bond - buying in June cannot be used as a baseline expectation, but this expectation is difficult to disprove in the short term and is still beneficial to medium - and short - term bonds [30]. III. High - frequency data remains weak, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen in June - In May, the manufacturing PMI increased from 49% to 49.5%, slightly stronger than the seasonal pattern, which may be boosted by export - rush factors. However, overall, the recovery speed of production activities is still higher than that of demand, and the new export orders and new order indexes are still below the boom - bust line. The situation of enterprises reducing inventory through price cuts has not changed significantly [32]. - Domestic high - frequency data shows that the economy has not improved significantly. The marginal improvement in new - house sales in May was mainly concentrated in first - tier cities, and the data has weakened recently. The second - hand housing market has also cooled down. Indicators such as the apparent demand for rebar and the cement shipping rate are still at low levels in recent years. Although the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index has risen significantly since late May, the increase in port container volume is not significant. Considering the potential increase in domestic fundamental pressure after the peak season, the overall environment for the bond market is still favorable. The short - end decline will create space for the long - end, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen in June. It is recommended to maintain a combination of 3 - year policy financial bonds and 10 - year interest - rate bonds and appropriately increase the leverage to hold 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [35][48].

Group 1 - The 5-year local government bond ETF (159972) has seen a recent increase of 7 basis points, with an average daily trading volume of 1.369 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 29.84% over the past week [1] - The fund's performance shows a net value growth rate of 4.23% over the past year, 12.36% over the past three years, and 24.23% since its inception [1] - This ETF is the first of its kind in the market, closely tracking the China Securities 5-year local government bond index, consisting of non-directionally issued local government bonds with remaining maturities between 4 and 5.25 years [1] Group 2 - Recent key information includes a significant easing of US-China tariff rates and stronger-than-expected export data for April, although PPI year-on-year and new credit data showed weakness, leading to a defensive phase in the bond market with rising yields [1] - Guotai Junan Securities suggests that the easing signals from US-China negotiations have led the market to adjust its previously pessimistic pricing for the second quarter, with long-term rates declining first [1] - The current overnight funding rates have returned close to policy rates, indicating a lack of downward momentum without triggering factors, and the market is awaiting catalysts for the transmission chain from funding rates to short-term and then long-term rates [2]