Group 1 - The steel spot market has shown a slight rebound, with major futures contracts primarily increasing, including rebar and hot-rolled coils rising by approximately 1% and iron ore by around 2% [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced the resumption of government bond trading and measures to stabilize the financial market, which is expected to boost steel demand and market confidence [2][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is 97.3%, which is anticipated to positively impact market sentiment and steel prices [2] Group 2 - Over 20 cities in China have introduced policies to stimulate housing demand, which is expected to support the real estate market and consequently increase steel demand [3] - The domestic steel market has shown a slight recovery today, with overall transaction volumes remaining average [4] - A total of 21 steel mills have raised their construction material prices, indicating a positive trend in pricing [8] Group 3 - The iron ore market has seen a slight increase in prices due to a decrease in port inventories and a favorable macroeconomic environment, despite a weak demand-supply balance [9] - The coke market remains stable, with supply and demand both showing weakness but slightly leaning towards tightness, leading to stable prices [9] - Scrap steel prices have shown a slight increase, supported by tight supply conditions, although demand remains weak [9] Group 4 - The current price of Tangshan billet is reported at 2960 yuan per ton, with expectations for stability in the market [10] - Overall, the market sentiment is warming due to multiple favorable factors, including macroeconomic support and steel mill price adjustments, although weak terminal demand and high inventory levels continue to pose challenges [11]

Core Insights - The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has raised its economic growth forecast for the region to 2.4% for 2025, maintaining a 2.3% growth forecast for 2026, with increased trade with China being a significant factor [1][2] Economic Growth Projections - ECLAC's upward revision reflects an improvement in the external environment affecting the region's economy, with major trading partners performing better than previously expected [1] - For South America, the growth forecast for 2025 is now 2.9%, up from the previous estimate of 2.7%, driven by increased trade with China and a rebound in prices of precious metals and other natural resources [1] - Central America and Mexico are expected to grow by 1.2%, slightly higher than before, mainly due to improved international trade conditions [1] - The Caribbean region (excluding Guyana) has a slightly raised growth forecast of 1.9%, benefiting from strong performance in the tourism sector [1] Recommendations for Regional Countries - ECLAC calls for regional countries to maintain macroeconomic stability, enhance productivity, promote export diversification, expand intra-regional trade, and encourage sustainable investment [2] - The importance of international cooperation and multilateralism is emphasized for consolidating economic recovery and mitigating geopolitical fragmentation [2]

Core Viewpoint - The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has raised its economic growth forecast for the Latin America and Caribbean region to 2.4% for 2025, while maintaining the 2026 growth forecast at 2.3% [1][2]. Economic Growth Projections - The 2025 growth forecast for South America has been increased to 2.9%, up from the previous estimate of 2.7% in August, driven by increased trade with China and a rebound in prices of precious metals and other natural resources [1]. - Central America and Mexico are expected to see a growth of 1.2% [1]. - The Caribbean region (excluding Guyana) has a slightly raised growth forecast of 1.9%, primarily benefiting from better-than-expected performance in the tourism sector [1]. External Environment and Risks - The upward revision reflects a more favorable external environment impacting the region's economy, although multiple downward risks remain, such as slower-than-expected global inflation decline, potential severe adjustments in international financial markets, and rising fiscal sustainability pressures in developed economies [1]. Recommendations for Regional Countries - ECLAC calls for regional countries to maintain macroeconomic stability, enhance productivity, promote export diversification, expand intra-regional trade, and encourage sustainable investment [1]. - The organization emphasizes the importance of international cooperation and multilateralism in consolidating economic recovery momentum and mitigating geopolitical economic fragmentation [1].

Group 1 - Shenzhen's housing provident fund has accumulated over 1 trillion yuan, increasing by 100 billion yuan from 900 billion yuan in 2024, with over 20 million account holders [1] - The expansion of the housing provident fund provides a stable source of long-term capital for the capital market, enhancing confidence in macroeconomic stability [1] Group 2 - Guangzhou plans to invest 100 billion yuan in urban village renovations and aims to start over 150 old community renovations by 2025 [2] - The combination of renovation-driven demand and policy benefits is expected to support inventory digestion and capital recovery, reinforcing market expectations for local project sales [2] Group 3 - Zhuhai Free Trade Zone Group intends to sell 100% equity of its subsidiary, Zhuhai Gree Real Estate, to Zhuhai Toujie Holdings, focusing on de-leveraging and concentrating on its duty-free business [3] - This divestment aligns with the direction of state-owned capital concentrating on strategic industries, optimizing the company's structure and reducing debt [3] Group 4 - In the first nine months of 2025, Shanghai's real estate development investment increased by 2.2% year-on-year, while the new housing starts decreased by 26% [4] - The sales area of commercial housing reached 1,202.42 million square meters, a slight decline of 0.3%, indicating the potential effectiveness of recent real estate policy adjustments [4] Group 5 - Vanke and Chengdu Runhong Investment consortium acquired two residential land parcels in Chengdu's Pidu District at a base price, totaling 316 million yuan for 69.3 acres [5] - This acquisition continues Vanke's strategy in the Chengdu market, enhancing its regional advantage while managing costs and risks through state-owned cooperation [5]

Core Points - The Russian Ministry of Finance submitted a comprehensive budget draft to the government, focusing on defense, security, social welfare, and national projects [1][2] Group 1: Budget Overview - The budget draft includes amendments for 2025, federal budget laws for 2026, and plans for 2027 and 2028, along with proposed revisions to the Budget Code and Tax Code [1] - This marks the second budget adjustment of the year, following a previous amendment in June that increased spending and lowered revenue expectations [2] Group 2: Financial Allocations - For 2025, over 230 billion rubles will be allocated for preferential mortgage loans, and 18 billion rubles for road repairs [2] - Additional funding will be provided for disaster response, soil improvement, rural development, and support for small and medium enterprises [2] Group 3: Long-term Budget Plans - The budget for 2026 is projected at 44.1 trillion rubles, increasing to 49.4 trillion rubles by 2028, with revenues expected to rise from 40.3 trillion rubles to 45.9 trillion rubles [3] - The federal budget deficit is targeted to remain between 1.2% and 1.6% of GDP over the next three years [3] Group 4: Social Welfare Initiatives - Over 10 trillion rubles will be allocated for a "children's budget" over the next three years, with annual family subsidies for families with two or more children starting in 2026 [3] - The government plans to invest over 1 trillion rubles in healthcare and 900 billion rubles in a national project for longevity and active living [3] Group 5: Technological and Infrastructure Development - Approximately 1.9 trillion rubles will be allocated for national technology projects, focusing on machine tool manufacturing, unmanned aerial systems, and infrastructure updates [4] - The budget will also support defense needs and provide social support for families of military personnel [4] Group 6: Tax Revisions - Proposed tax law revisions include increasing the standard VAT rate from 20% to 22%, while maintaining a reduced rate for essential goods [4] - The VAT increase is expected to generate approximately 4.4 trillion rubles in additional revenue over three years, raising the share of non-oil and gas revenue to nearly 78% of total income [4] Group 7: Economic Outlook - The new budget is characterized as a "defense and security budget," a "social welfare budget," and a "development budget," aiming to create conditions for economic growth [5] - The Russian economy is projected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace compared to previous years, with a focus on managing inflation and achieving balanced, sustainable growth [5]

Core Insights - Ghana has reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the fifth review of the Extended Credit Facility, pending approval from the IMF management and board [1] - Upon approval, Ghana is set to receive $385 million in funding [1] Economic Performance - Macroeconomic stability is reportedly taking root, with growth in the first half of 2025 expected to exceed forecasts, driven by strong service sector activity and agricultural output [1] - External trade has significantly improved due to robust exports, particularly in gold and cocoa [1] - International reserves have continued to accumulate beyond the targets set under the Extended Credit Facility [1] Currency and Energy Sector - The local currency, the cedi, has appreciated significantly in the first half of the year [1] - Ghana has made notable progress in addressing long-standing challenges in the energy sector, including renegotiating legacy debts and power purchase agreements with most independent power producers [1] - Electricity prices are now adjusted quarterly to better reflect costs, and payments through the cash waterfall mechanism have increased substantially [1] Fiscal Performance - The primary fiscal surplus for the first eight months of 2025 accounted for 1.1% of GDP, with expectations to achieve a target of 1.5% by year-end [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Colombian government asserts that the U.S. cancellation of drug certification will not negatively impact the country's macroeconomic stability [1] Economic Performance - In July, Colombia's trade volume increased by 17.9% year-on-year [1] - The manufacturing sector experienced a growth of 5.8% [1] - The overall economic momentum remains strong [1] Government Measures - The government plans to implement a series of measures to reinforce macroeconomic stability [1] - There is a commitment to safeguard both public and private investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Colombian business leaders express concerns over the potential economic consequences of the U.S. government's cancellation of drug certification for Colombia, emphasizing the need for immediate action to mitigate risks [1] Economic Impact - The cancellation could lead to additional aid restrictions and negatively affect multilateral banking operations, which may weaken investor confidence and put pressure on the dollar exchange rate [1] - There is a risk of threatening macroeconomic stability if timely measures are not implemented [1] Trade Relations - The move is expected to impact bilateral trade relations, reducing the willingness of U.S. companies to operate in Colombia and increasing national risk [1] - This situation may also raise credit costs, directly affecting employment, investment, and social welfare in Colombia [1] Regional Security - The current scenario could prolong regional security challenges and increase the risk of trade sanctions [1]

Core Insights - The global economic landscape has significantly changed for many developing countries, facing challenges such as growth slowdown, supply chain disruptions, reduced aid flows, and increased financial market volatility [1][2] - The traditional US-centered global economic and financial order is being fundamentally adjusted, leading to a series of factors that will greatly impact the welfare of developing countries and the fate of multilateral institutions [1][2] Group 1: Factors Affecting Developing Countries - The existing order fails to integrate rapidly expanding developing nations, leading to political and economic disconnection [1][2] - The US has shifted from a stabilizing force to a source of turmoil, exacerbated by events like the 2008 financial crisis and the weaponization of tariffs [2][3] - Despite these challenges, developing countries have managed to navigate the changing landscape relatively well due to significant policy achievements [2][3] Group 2: Policy Priorities for Developing Countries - Maintaining macroeconomic stability while addressing structural and financial vulnerabilities is crucial [2][3] - Strengthening international connections to enhance resilience and flexibility requires years of coordinated efforts [2][3] - Preparing to leverage innovations, particularly in AI, to improve productivity in traditional sectors and enhance human capital investment returns is essential [3][4] Group 3: Role of Multilateral Institutions - Multilateral institutions like the World Bank should play a vital role in helping members adopt new practices and technologies to improve health, education, and productivity outcomes [3][4] - Encouraging regional trade connections and cross-border infrastructure projects is necessary to adapt to frequent global shocks [4][5] - Strengthening emergency financing mechanisms and risk-sharing tools is critical in a world shaped by increasing disruptions [4][5]

Core Insights - The World Bank has allocated $360 million to Ghana through its International Development Association (IDA) to support the government's efforts in restoring macroeconomic stability and fostering sustainable economic growth [1][1][1] Group 1: Financial Support - The funds were disbursed on September 11 and are part of a broader support program that includes investment loans and technical assistance [1] - The program aims to strengthen fiscal discipline and enhance domestic revenue growth, improve financial sector stability, and promote private investment [1] Group 2: Sectoral Reforms - The initiative will also enhance the financial sustainability of the energy sector, ensuring efficient management and operations [1] - This support is intended to reinforce ongoing reforms under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program in Ghana [1]