Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is under pressure. The current supply of cotton in China is tight, but new cotton in the new year is expected to be abundant, limiting the upside. The future cotton price is affected by the macro - situation, and it is advisable to hedge at the high point of the rebound this year [1]. - PTA is under pressure. With the digestion of macro - benefits, weakening supply - demand expectations, and low buying interest from downstream enterprises, the short - term domestic PTA market may continue to be under pressure [2][3]. - Ethylene glycol moves in a range. Although the cost side has declined and the supply - demand pattern is favorable, the price may correct due to the rapid short - term increase [3]. - Short - fiber moves in a range. The price rebounds due to raw material and supply factors, but considering the off - season and upstream device restart, the price is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [3]. - Sugar shows a weak oscillation. Internationally, Brazil has a production increase expectation; domestically, factors are mixed, and the sugar price is under pressure [4]. - Apples fluctuate at a high level. The inventory trading is stable, and with low inventory, the price is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound movement [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - As of the end of April, the commercial inventory was 415 million tons, and the industrial inventory was 95 million tons. By the end of August, the commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, tighter than in 2023. New cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be 7.5 billion tons. The short - and medium - term upside is limited, affected by international negotiations. The future price depends on negotiation results [1]. - On May 26, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,606 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the棉纱 index was 20,500 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. On May 26, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts were 11,691 (+5) sheets [8]. - In April, Argentina exported 3,209 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 9.1% month - on - month and 71% year - on - year. From August 2024 to July 2025, the cumulative export was about 74,000 tons, a decrease of 6.7% year - on - year [8]. - As of May 20, the non - commercial net long positions in ICE cotton futures and options decreased by 12,920; the non - commercial net long positions in futures alone decreased by 11,613; the commodity index fund net long positions increased by 22 [8]. PTA - As of the 20th, the PTA spot price was 4,855 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The polyester production cut dragged down sentiment, and the absolute price decreased. The capacity utilization rate rose to 78.38% due to the restart of Sichuan Energy Investment's device, and the downstream polyester industry capacity utilization rate was 89.98%, a decrease of 0.42% from last Friday. The comprehensive supply - demand de - stocking slowed down, and the polyester production and sales rate was 34.1%, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous trading day [2][3]. - As of May 22, the average PTA processing interval was 400.19 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.33%. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate reached 77.22%, a month - on - month increase of 1.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [9]. Ethylene Glycol - The cost side has declined due to the drop in international oil prices. Domestic maintenance has increased significantly, and imports are at a low level. The demand side maintains a high operating rate, but the price may correct [3]. - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 55.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.66%. The weekly output was 332,900 tons, a decrease of 9.28% from last week [14]. Short - fiber - The price rebounds due to rising raw materials and reduced supply, but the support from crude oil weakens, and downstream orders are not improving significantly. Considering the off - season and upstream device restart, the price is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [3]. - As of the 8th, the domestic short - fiber weekly output was 161,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%. The average polymerization cost was 5,728 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%, and the industry cash flow was - 307 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 86.41% [11]. Sugar - Internationally, Brazil's sugar production in April decreased year - on - year, but there is a production increase expectation. Domestically, factors are mixed, with both supportive and pressure factors [4]. - The USDA expects the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season to increase by 8.6 million tons to 189.3 million tons. The domestic sugar sales quota in May 2025 was 2.35 million tons, the same as last month and down 350,000 tons year - on - year. The 2024/25 sugar - making season in Yunnan ended, and the output is expected to reach a record high of about 2.4 million tons [10][12]. Apples - The inventory trading is stable, with different situations in different regions. The sales in the sales area are okay, and with low inventory, the price is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound movement [5]. - As of May 21, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 1.7085 million tons, a decrease of 242,500 tons from last week [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance views Moody's decision to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook as a positive reflection of the improving economic prospects in China, following a series of macroeconomic policies implemented since the fourth quarter of last year [2]. Group 1 - The Chinese government has implemented a comprehensive set of macroeconomic policies that have led to a recovery in economic indicators, stabilizing market expectations and confidence, and enhancing the long-term sustainability of debt [2]. - Despite global economic challenges such as insufficient momentum, geopolitical conflicts, and instability in international trade, China's economy has shown a strong start with high-quality development, stable production, and rising consumer demand [2]. - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes that a series of incremental and existing policies will continue to work together to support high-quality economic development, regardless of external changes [2].

Core Viewpoint - China does not resort to selling US Treasury bonds as a countermeasure against the US due to its significant foreign exchange reserves and the potential risks associated with such actions [1][5][6]. Group 1: China's Economic Position - As of early 2025, China holds $784.3 billion in US Treasury bonds, equivalent to approximately 5.65 trillion RMB at an exchange rate of 1:7.2 [3][4]. - China's foreign exchange reserves stand at $3.2 trillion, with over half in US dollar assets, primarily in the form of US Treasury bonds [4][5]. Group 2: Reasons for Holding US Treasuries - Foreign exchange reserves are crucial for stabilizing the currency and managing macroeconomic conditions, especially during times of pressure on the RMB [5][6]. - Selling off large amounts of US Treasuries could lead to a significant drop in their prices, adversely affecting China's own financial position [5][6]. Group 3: Future Considerations - While China has been gradually reducing its holdings of US Treasuries since their peak of $1.2 trillion in 2020, it is unlikely to completely divest from them in the near future [6][7]. - A large-scale sale of US Treasuries by China would only occur under extreme circumstances, such as a loss of confidence in the US dollar or significant political issues [7][8].