政府部门就业大幅增加 美国6月就业增长超出预期 金十数据7月3日讯，在特朗普呼吁降息之后，美国6月份的就业增长好于预期，劳动力市场表现出了惊 人的韧性。美国劳工统计局周四公布，经季节性因素调整后，当月非农就业人数增加14.7万人，高于预 期的11万人。失业率降至4.1%。就业人数稳步增长、失业率下降，平均时薪环比增长0.2%，同比增长 3.7%，表明通胀压力减弱。政府部门就业人数大幅增加，增幅居所有类别之首，增加了7.3万人，原因 是州政府和地方部门的就业大幅增加，尤其是与教育相关的工作岗位增加。联邦政府仍受到马斯克政府 效率部裁员的影响，损失了7000人。此外，医疗保健也很强劲，增加了3.9万人，而社会援助就业增加 了1.9万人。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. job growth is expected to slow down, with a forecast of an increase of 106,000 jobs in June, the lowest in four months, and an unemployment rate projected to rise to 4.3% [1] - The increase in unemployment claims and a significant rise in layoff notices indicate a weakening job market, with the number of continuing unemployment claims reaching 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 [3] - The labor force participation rate has decreased to 62.4%, suggesting that the unemployment rate may remain stable if this trend continues [4] Group 2 - Various industries, including leisure and hospitality, healthcare, construction, manufacturing, and trade and transportation, are expected to show significant changes in employment numbers, with a consensus on a slowdown in hiring [5] - The leisure and hospitality sector had a strong performance in May, but economists predict a potential reversal in June due to reduced consumer spending on travel and related services [5] - There is a risk of downward revisions in hiring data for April and May, particularly in small businesses, which may affect the overall employment numbers reported for June [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data reinforces the Federal Reserve's "wait-and-see" approach, indicating strong employment growth momentum, but wage increases are not sufficient to raise inflation concerns among policymakers [1] Employment Growth - There are signs of sustained strong employment growth in the U.S. labor market, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] Inflation Concerns - Wage growth is currently not alarming enough to cause concern for policymakers regarding inflation, suggesting that the labor market's strength may not lead to immediate changes in interest rates [1]

加拿大新增就业好于预期 但失业率升至7%的多年高位 金十数据6月6日讯，5月份，加拿大就业市场仍然低迷，又一个月的招聘活动低迷，失业率升至2016年 以来的最高水平（不包括疫情最严重时期）。加拿大统计局周五表示，上月加拿大新增就业岗位8800 个，增幅不大。随着加拿大人口继续扩张，劳动力市场的增长落后，意味着失业率连续第三个月小幅上 升，至7.0%。就业增长数据强于预期，因联邦选举引入临时工，分析师曾预计5月就业人数将减少 12,500人，逆转上月增加的约37,000个公共行政职位。在1月份就业激增之后，加拿大的就业几乎没有增 长，因为人们担心特朗普政府对贸易和进口关税的敌对态度打击了招聘意愿。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, surpassing the expected increase of 126,000, while the previous month's figure was revised down from 177,000 to 147,000, reflecting a downward adjustment of 95,000 jobs over the past two months [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. for May stood at 4.2%, consistent with both the expected value and the previous value [1] - The data suggests a slowdown in employment growth in May, with previous months' figures being revised down, indicating that employers are cautious about growth prospects amid the economic policies of the Trump administration [1]

Group 1 - Strong employment growth with an increase of 177,000 jobs in April, despite a downward revision of 58,000 jobs in the previous two months [1] - Unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, while labor force participation rate rises to 62.6% [1] - Average hourly wage growth slows to 0.2% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 3.8% [1] Group 2 - Healthcare sector added 51,000 jobs, while manufacturing lost 1,000 jobs; federal government reduced 9,000 jobs in April, totaling a loss of 26,000 jobs since January [1] - Market reaction includes reduced bets on Fed rate cuts, rising stock index futures, and a recovery in the dollar index, alongside an increase in two-year Treasury yields [1]

校对：王朝全 肯塔基州共和党联邦参议员兰德·保罗日前在参议院发言时，批评联邦政府以贸易逆差构成"国家紧急状 态"为由征收关税。他强调，国会必须重新行使宪法赋予的关税及对外贸易监管权。 来源：政事儿 责编： 刘珺宇 央视新闻4月12日消息，美国前副总统迈克·彭斯日前表示，他对本届美国政府大规模加征关税措施感到担 忧，称这种做法是"失策"。 彭斯曾在特朗普第一任期担任副总统。他9日接受美国《国会山报》采访时说，尽管美国政府已撤回部分 对盟友施加的最严厉关税措施，但其激进的关税政策仍可能给共和党中期选举带来潜在风险。 彭斯是批评关税政策的又一名共和党重要人物。此前，关税政策已在共和党内部遭到多名国会议员批评。 得克萨斯州共和党联邦参议员特德·克鲁兹日前接受福克斯新闻台采访时说，关税本质上是对消费者征税， 他不赞成对美国消费者大幅加税。克鲁兹在其播客节目中表示，若关税政策长期实施，可能推高通胀、损 害就业增长，甚至可能导致美国经济衰退。 百万用户都在看 刚刚，见证历史！金价，暴涨 历史罕见！美元资产，大抛售！ 特朗普，操纵市场？美股，盘前走低！ A股，大反攻！见证历史：两天买入超1780亿！ 违法和不良信息举报电话： ...

"资金削减和政策不确定性也可能通过政府合同商等渠道影响私营部门就业，影响可能在2月之后的月份显现，比如在专业服务等领域，" 报告指出。此外，关 税不确定性、高利率和美元走强也可能进一步削弱制造业就业，而制造业在相当长一段时间里已经疲软。 3月4日，花旗银行经济学家Veronica Clark和Andrew Hollenhorst在报告中表示，美国2月就业增长将放缓至13.5万个岗位，与1月的14.3万相比略有下降，但 仍属健康增长范畴。 花旗预计， 尽管失业率预计将保持在4.1%的相对稳定水平，但2月可能是"健康"就业数据持续的最后一个月，就业环境在春季和夏季可能进一步恶化，联邦政 府裁员和政府资金削减将成为额外的下行风险，失业率可能在今年年中攀升至约5%的水平。 失业率：短期稳定，预计将在年中达到约5%的水平 花旗经济学家预计2月份非农就业增长13.5万个岗位，与1月份的14.3万个岗位基本持平。花旗指出，尽管较2024年第四季度增速减缓，这一数据仍属健康范 畴，且可能因季节性调整因素而有一定上行空间。 据花旗，私营部门就业预计将增加12万个岗位，略高于1月份的11.1万个。政府部门就业可能受到影响，特别是 ...