Group 1 - President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on imports from Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan just hours before the tariff deadline, despite ongoing negotiations for more favorable agreements [1] - Employment growth has sharply declined over the past three months, with an increase of only 73,000 jobs in July and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months, resulting in an average increase of only 35,000 jobs over the last three months, the worst level since the pandemic began [1] - The report has raised expectations for a rate cut in September to 80.0% [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues to refuse to lower interest rates, the Federal Reserve Board should take control [1] - Bond prices have continued to rise as investors bet on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to an increase in gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the anticipation surrounding the upcoming non-farm payroll (NFP) report, which is expected to show a slowdown in job growth for July [1] - The market is concerned about a potential slight increase in the unemployment rate, which is currently a key focus for the Federal Reserve [1] - The article suggests that the hawkish comments from Jerome Powell have created volatility in the market, making the NFP report a critical event that could either stabilize or further disrupt market conditions [1]

Group 1 - The takeaway food market has rapidly expanded, with daily order volume increasing from 100 million to 250 million [1] - In July, night orders in 127 cities on Taobao saw a month-on-month growth of over 100%, driven by the "Su Chao" trend in Jiangsu province [1] - Over 640,000 stores nationwide experienced a month-on-month growth of over 100% in night orders [1] Group 2 - The demand for labor in the restaurant industry has surged, with tens of thousands of new jobs created since the launch of Taobao Flash Sale in May [4] - For example, the local snack shop "Jiming Soup Bun" in Nanjing saw daily orders triple, leading to an increase in staff from seven to nine per store [4] - The tea brand "Li Shan Shan Tea" reported over 200% growth in orders since launching on Taobao Flash Sale, necessitating a 50%-100% increase in staff [5] Group 3 - The introduction of platform consumption vouchers has stimulated consumption growth, creating a more vibrant environment for businesses [9] - The external delivery market is expected to create approximately 1.5 million jobs for delivery riders, with the growth impacting the entire supply chain [9] - Economists suggest that boosting service consumption can lead to more opportunities for small businesses and employment, creating a positive feedback loop [9]

Core Insights - Canada's economy showed resilience in June, overcoming tariff uncertainties, with the highest job growth in six months and a decline in the unemployment rate for the first time since January [1] Employment Data - In June, Canada added 83,100 jobs, marking the largest increase in six months [1] - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.9% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Miran, argues that the non-farm payroll report counters the pessimism and hopelessness promoted by critics, emphasizing the job growth among native-born Americans since Trump's presidency rather than foreign-born workers [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Employment Growth** - The non-farm payroll report indicates significant job growth among native-born Americans since the beginning of Trump's administration [1] - **Criticism Response** - Miran calls for a focus on the positive employment trends rather than the negative narratives pushed by critics regarding the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is expected to soon highlight employment data, emphasizing that job growth has exceeded economists' predictions for the fourth consecutive time [1] Group 1 - Analyst Chris Anstey notes that the economic team will point out that various indicators have proven to be better than widely expected, including moderate inflation and robust job growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market showed remarkable resilience in June, with non-farm employment growth exceeding expectations, indicating a strong economic performance despite calls for interest rate cuts by Trump [1] Employment Growth - In June, non-farm employment increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected increase of 110,000 [1] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, reflecting a steady growth in employment and a decline in unemployment [1] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and increased by 3.7% year-over-year, suggesting a reduction in inflationary pressures [1] Sector Performance - Government employment saw the largest increase, adding 73,000 jobs, primarily due to significant growth in state and local government positions, especially in education-related jobs [1] - The federal government experienced a loss of 7,000 jobs, impacted by layoffs in the efficiency department under Musk [1] - The healthcare sector also performed strongly, adding 39,000 jobs, while social assistance employment increased by 19,000 [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. job growth is expected to slow down, with a forecast of an increase of 106,000 jobs in June, the lowest in four months, and an unemployment rate projected to rise to 4.3% [1] - The increase in unemployment claims and a significant rise in layoff notices indicate a weakening job market, with the number of continuing unemployment claims reaching 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 [3] - The labor force participation rate has decreased to 62.4%, suggesting that the unemployment rate may remain stable if this trend continues [4] Group 2 - Various industries, including leisure and hospitality, healthcare, construction, manufacturing, and trade and transportation, are expected to show significant changes in employment numbers, with a consensus on a slowdown in hiring [5] - The leisure and hospitality sector had a strong performance in May, but economists predict a potential reversal in June due to reduced consumer spending on travel and related services [5] - There is a risk of downward revisions in hiring data for April and May, particularly in small businesses, which may affect the overall employment numbers reported for June [5]

金十数据6月23日讯，美联储理事鲍曼表示："如果通胀压力得到控制，我将支持在下次会议上尽快降低 政策利率，以使其更接近中性水平并维持健康的劳动力市场。"鲍曼去年一直非常关注通胀风险。她 说，由于预计今年经济将出现更多闲置产能，她认为关税带来的价格上涨将是"小幅且一次性"的。她将 劳动力市场描述为坚实且预计接近充分就业的水平。但她亦援引了脆弱性的证据，包括劳动力市场活力 减弱、经济增长放缓和就业增长的狭隘集中，因此认为美联储在未来的决策中应"更加重视就业目标所 面临的下行风险"。这是鲍曼自今年春季被特朗普提名并经参议院确认出任美联储监管副主席以来，首 次就经济前景发表实质性评论。 美联储理事鲍曼暗示：或会支持7月降息 ...

周一（6月9日）欧市盘中，COMEX黄金价格反弹上涨，截至目前报3343.60美元/盎司，涨幅0.38%，今 日开盘于3333.40美元/盎司，最高上探3346.20美元/盎司，最低触及3313.10美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 上周五公布的美国5月失业率录得4.2%，符合市场预期，前值为4.2%；美国5月季调后非农就业人口录 得13.9万人，高于市场预期13万人，前值为14.7万人。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos发文称，美联储官员表示，在评估劳动力需求是否放缓上，他们可能更关 注失业率而非就业增长。原因在于，他们预计，随着边境管控收紧导致可供工作的人数减少，就业增长 自然将放缓。当就业增长放缓而失业率保持稳定时，可能表明劳动力供给下降的速度快于需求下降的速 度。美联储的底线是：只要失业率保持在当前水平，美联储不会必然对就业增长放缓感到担忧。 华尔街交易员在周五强于预期的5月非农就业报告公布后，缩减了对降息的押注。根据CME的数据，利 率期货显示，今年有三次及以上0.25个百分点的降息可能性从周四的36%下降至25%。一次或零次降息 的可能性从25%上升至34%。 本周市场聚焦大国贸易磋商与美国通 ...