Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rebounded from a low level, with a daily increase of 0.47%. The supply and demand pattern has not changed significantly. Although the weekly output decreased slightly, it remains at a high level for the year. Demand is stable but has a seasonal weakening expectation. With inventory at a low level, steel prices are expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.32%. Both supply and demand have increased. Supply has returned to a high level for the year, and demand has improved but its sustainability is questionable. With overseas risks easing, steel prices are expected to continue to be under pressure and fluctuate at a low level [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore rebounded from a low level, with a daily increase of 1.29%. In the off - season, steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is declining. At the same time, port arrivals have increased slightly, and overseas miners' shipments remain high. With the futures price deeply discounted, ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The US Federal Court blocked the tariff policy announced by President Trump on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority [8]. - In Q1 2025, the domestic sales volume of refrigeration and air - conditioning valves reached 19.915 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [9]. - Fortescue postponed the full - production time of its Iron Bridge Magnetite Project to the 2028 fiscal year. The annual shipment volume is expected to be 10 - 12 million tons in the 2026 fiscal year, 16 - 20 million tons in the 2027 fiscal year, and reach the full - load capacity of 22 million tons in the 2028 fiscal year [10]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,090, 3,160, and 3,230 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,200, 3,150, and 3,270 respectively. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 737 [11]. 3. Futures Market | Product | Closing Price | Daily Increase (%) | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2,978 | 0.47 | 1,945,056 | 611,105 | 2,377,320 | - 64,068 | | Hot - rolled Coil | 3,110 | 0.32 | 809,980 | 357,449 | 1,552,234 | 15,120 | | Iron Ore | 707.0 | 1.29 | 504,680 | 217,338 | 716,254 | - 5,254 | [13] 4. Related Charts - There are charts showing the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills, including the opening rate of electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of arc - furnace steel mills [15][29] 5. Future Market Judgment - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has not improved. Supply has slightly contracted but the reduction is unlikely to be sustainable. Demand is stable but has a seasonal weakening expectation. With inventory at a low level, steel prices will continue to be under pressure and seek a bottom [37]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have increased. Supply has returned to a high level, and demand has improved but its sustainability is questionable. With overseas risks easing, steel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level [38]. - Iron Ore: In the off - season, steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is declining. Supply pressure remains high. With the futures price deeply discounted, ore prices will fluctuate at a low level [39]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - For the steel market, risk preference has generally strengthened. On Wednesday, futures prices opened low and closed high, with some under - performing furnace material varieties making up for losses. Spot trading volume increased compared to Tuesday, and steel inventory and apparent demand data improved but did not return to pre - May Day levels. After the long - holiday impact, steel union's apparent demand data may rise this week, but inventory changes are more important. The medium - term cost loosening and supply - demand relaxation in the industry remain unchanged. Tariff war easing may boost market sentiment, but the supply - demand structure in May may be weaker than in April, and there is a risk of price decline after the market sentiment fades [6]. - In the coking coal and coke market, there is an expectation of "grabbing exports" during the tariff suspension period, causing commodities to strengthen. However, the first round of coke price cuts is expected to be implemented soon, coal mines are accumulating inventory, and coking coal prices are falling. Although the futures market rebounded on Wednesday, the spot market is still weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on single - side trading and consider JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [6]. - Regarding ferroalloys, in the silicon - iron market, some manufacturers in Ningxia have stopped production, which may lead to a tight supply - demand situation. In the manganese - silicon market, the area of production cuts has expanded, and the cost has a certain loosening expectation. The rebound of silicon - iron may continue strongly, while the rebound of manganese - silicon may slow down in the short term [6]. - For iron ore, the rebound driven by improved macro - sentiment provides a good cost basis. Considering the high comprehensive tariff and the end of the peak season, the market needs to consider the situation of steel apparent demand peaking and inventory under high hot - metal production. Without considering production restrictions, iron ore will remain in a volatile state in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 14, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3155 yuan/ton with a 48 - yuan increase (1.54% increase), HC2601 at 3283 yuan/ton with a 46 - yuan increase (1.42% increase), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3127 yuan/ton with a 38 - yuan increase (1.23% increase), HC2510 at 3267 yuan/ton with a 41 - yuan increase (1.27% increase), etc. [2] - **Spreads**: The cross - month spreads such as RB2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton on May 14 with a 5 - yuan decrease. The spreads/price ratios/profits like the coil - to - rebar spread was 140 yuan/ton on May 14 with a 4 - yuan increase [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 14, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3270 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3340 yuan/ton with a 90 - yuan increase, etc. [2] - **Basis**: On May 14, the basis of HC (hot - rolled coil) was 73 yuan/ton with a 38 - yuan increase, the basis of RB (rebar) was 143 yuan/ton with an 18 - yuan decrease, etc. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 1.23%. Supply contraction is hard to sustain, demand is likely to weaken seasonally, and fundamentals haven't improved substantially. Steel prices remain under pressure, but due to positive market sentiment, the short - term trend will be a volatile rebound. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate was strong with a daily increase of 1.27%. Supply is at a high level with relatively large pressure, and demand has weakened. The fundamentals are weak, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, overseas risks have eased, market sentiment has warmed up, and in the short - term, prices will oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore continued to rise with a daily increase of 2.43%. Supported by the repair of the discount due to improved market sentiment, the price is strong in the short - term. But ore demand is approaching its peak, supply remains high, and the fundamentals are likely to weaken. Be cautious about bullishness at high levels [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In the economic and trade talks between China and the US in Geneva, both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US promised to cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs, and China also took corresponding actions. China's counter - measures against the US over fentanyl remain effective [6]. - Xinyang will implement spot - house sales for newly - developed commercial housing on newly - transferred land. The measure is for public consultation from May 6 to May 15, 2025 [7]. - In early May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.05 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 220,500 tons (a 0.2% daily increase). Pig iron output was 19.9 million tons, with an average daily output of 199,000 tons (a 1.6% daily increase). Steel output was 20.83 million tons, with an average daily output of 208,300 tons (an 8.4% daily decrease) [7]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, etc., and their price changes are presented, along with the prices and changes of iron ore - related products such as 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, etc. [8] 3. Futures Market - The closing prices, price increases or decreases, trading volumes, and open interest changes of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, and iron ore are shown. For example, the rebar main contract closed at 3,127 with a 1.23% increase, trading volume of 2,134,942, and a decrease in open interest of 39,651 [10]. 4. Related Charts - Include price trend charts of steel and iron ore, inventory charts of steel and iron ore (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil plate, and iron ore at 45 ports), and charts related to steel mill production (such as blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making steel mill ratio) [8][9][12] 5.后市研判 - For rebar, supply contraction is hard to sustain, demand is likely to weaken seasonally, and fundamentals haven't improved substantially. Steel prices are under pressure, but short - term trend is a volatile rebound due to positive market sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand performance [36]. - For hot - rolled coil plate, supply is at a high level, demand is weakening, and fundamentals are weak. Prices are under pressure, but short - term prices will oscillate strongly due to improved market sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - For iron ore, demand is approaching its peak, supply remains high, and fundamentals are likely to weaken. Although the short - term trend is strong, be cautious about bullishness at high levels [38].

期货热点追踪 市场情绪回暖，集运欧线大幅高开，而贵金属期货大幅低开，沪金期货失守770关口，后续价格走势如 何？ 相关链接 ...