Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates that the trade war is expected to ease, which may lead to a positive market outlook for Hong Kong stocks [3] - The Hang Seng Index rebounded after three consecutive days of decline, closing up 260 points or 1.1% at 24,148, with a total turnover of 213.29 billion [3] - The performance of the A-share market has positively influenced the Hong Kong market, contributing to the recovery of the Hang Seng Index [3] Group 2: Bond Market Developments - The report highlights that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) and the People's Bank of China have announced several measures to optimize the Bond Connect, which will enhance the accessibility of RMB liquidity for overseas investors [7] - The measures include expanding the range of participating institutions in the Southbound Bond Connect and optimizing offshore RMB bond repurchase operations [7][9] - The report emphasizes the strong growth of the Bond Connect, with average daily trading volume reaching nearly 47 billion RMB in the first five months of the year, a 30-fold increase since its launch [12] Group 3: Company News - AIA Hong Kong has launched a new savings insurance plan aimed at providing flexibility and long-term wealth growth, with an expected internal rate of return of up to 6.5% [11] - New World Development is reportedly selling part of its K11 property in Shanghai, with a total sale price of 2.85 billion RMB for an office space of approximately 81,000 square meters [13]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the adjustment phase for tin prices has likely ended, and the long-term upward trend that began in Q4 2022 is expected to continue based on macroeconomic and supply-demand factors [1][19]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Sentiment - Recent signals show a significant easing in the US-China tariff war, with important agreements reached during trade talks in Geneva and London, positively impacting global trade and economic conditions [2]. - China's manufacturing PMI for May recorded 49.5, a marginal increase, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activities, with production index rising to 50.7, suggesting acceleration in production [3]. Group 2: Tin Supply and Demand Factors - Tin supply is constrained due to lower-than-expected recovery in Myanmar's Wa State, with imports from Myanmar remaining at historically low levels of 1,000 to 3,000 tons per month since November 2024 [6]. - The Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a significant tin production area, is experiencing slow recovery due to local security issues, with current imports from this region around 3,000 tons [7]. - Domestic tin mining in China faces challenges due to declining ore grades and rising extraction costs, with regulatory actions aimed at curbing illegal mining impacting production [9]. - Processing fees for tin concentrate have hit record lows, which reflects tight supply conditions and has suppressed domestic refined tin output to below 15,000 tons per month [11]. - Both domestic and international tin inventories are in a destocking cycle, with LME tin inventories decreasing by nearly 50% since the end of last year [14]. Group 3: Demand Growth - Traditional applications of tin in electronics, home appliances, and chemicals are being supplemented by increased demand from the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors, with global semiconductor sales projected to reach $627.6 billion in 2024, a 19.1% year-on-year increase [17]. - The semiconductor industry is in a recovery phase, with demand for tin solder materials expected to grow, and the correlation between LME tin prices and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is strong, indicating a close relationship between semiconductor market performance and tin demand [17].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Spot freight rates for containers from Shanghai to Europe have increased significantly in early June, with quotes rising from $1,500 - $1,900 at the end of May to $2,500 - $3,300. The implementation of rate increases by shipping companies has exceeded expectations, and considering the traditional peak season from June to August, freight rates are expected to enter an upward channel. The June contract will follow the delivery logic, while the far - month 08 and 10 contracts are mainly influenced by the logic of intensified supply - demand contradictions during the peak season on the US route and are more affected by sentiment [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Spot Market Situation**: In early June, the spot quotes for large containers increased from the late - May range of $1,500 - $1,900 to $2,500 - $3,300. Maersk's mid - month quote rose from $2,100 to $2,397, and the opening price from Shanghai to London in the third week was $2,800, rising slightly to $2,838. Shipping companies have continued to raise freight rates for the second half of June, with quotes ranging from $2,937 to $4,245 and a median of $3,600. Considering the peak season from June to August, freight rates are expected to rise [8]. - **Contract Analysis**: The June contract will follow the delivery logic and verify the implementation of price increases. If shipping companies are determined to maintain prices and the price increases are substantial, there may still be a small upward space. The far - month 08 and 10 contracts are mainly based on the logic of intensified supply - demand contradictions during the peak season on the US route, which is difficult to verify in the short term and is more affected by sentiment. If the price in June is strong, the central price of the far - month peak - season contracts will also rise [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Container Shipping Market in May**: From May 26th to 30th, the China Export Container Shipping Market continued to improve. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on May 30th was 2,072.71 points, a 30.7% increase from the previous period. Freight rates on most routes increased. For example, the freight rate from Shanghai to European basic ports was $1,587/TEU, a 20.5% increase; the rates to the US West and East basic ports were $5,172/FEU and $6,243/FEU, with increases of 57.9% and 45.7% respectively [9][10]. - **International Political News**: There are issues in the Iran - US indirect talks, with the US's contradictory stance undermining the negotiation foundation. Israel has taken actions such as temporarily closing the Gaza material distribution point, and the Houthi armed forces have claimed to attack Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport. The US has vetoed the UN Security Council's humanitarian resolution draft on Gaza [10]. - **China - US Relations**: President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump on the evening of June 5th. The two countries' economic and trade leaders held talks in Geneva, and both sides should use the established economic and trade consultation mechanism to strive for a win - win result [10]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Settlement Index for the European route on June 2, 2025, was 1,252.82 points, a 0.5% increase from May 26th; the index for the US West route was 1,718.11 points, a 0.1% decrease from May 26th [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market**: The report provides the trading data of container shipping futures contracts on June 6, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc. [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report includes charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][21]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese export container transportation market continues to show a positive trend, supported by easing trade tensions, leading to an increase in freight rates and a rise in the comprehensive index [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index reached 2072.71 points on May 30, reflecting an increase of 30.7% compared to the previous period [1]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has recently appreciated against the USD, breaking the 7.17 mark, with a low of 7.16, and closing at 7.1782 on May 26 [1] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its 12-month USD/RMB target to 7.0, indicating a potential 3% foreign exchange gain for the RMB in the next year [1][4] - Historically, when the RMB appreciates, the Chinese stock market tends to perform well, particularly in sectors like consumer discretionary, real estate, and diversified financials [1][4][5] Group 2 - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to the easing of trade tensions, with the RMB center rate falling below 7.2 for the first time since April [1][8] - Despite the recent gains, there are concerns about the sustainability of the RMB's appreciation due to ongoing uncertainties in trade negotiations and macroeconomic conditions [8][9] - Companies that may benefit from RMB appreciation include those with a market capitalization over $2 billion and significant exposure to USD costs, such as airlines and food sectors [6] Group 3 - Conversely, companies that may be adversely affected by RMB appreciation are those with over 30% of their revenue from overseas and low USD debt exposure [7] - The future trajectory of the RMB will largely depend on export conditions and the behavior of exporters regarding currency conversion [9][10] - The potential for further RMB appreciation is limited, as the central bank has not shown intentions to significantly push for a stronger RMB [9][10]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - For the steel market, risk preference has generally strengthened. On Wednesday, futures prices opened low and closed high, with some under - performing furnace material varieties making up for losses. Spot trading volume increased compared to Tuesday, and steel inventory and apparent demand data improved but did not return to pre - May Day levels. After the long - holiday impact, steel union's apparent demand data may rise this week, but inventory changes are more important. The medium - term cost loosening and supply - demand relaxation in the industry remain unchanged. Tariff war easing may boost market sentiment, but the supply - demand structure in May may be weaker than in April, and there is a risk of price decline after the market sentiment fades [6]. - In the coking coal and coke market, there is an expectation of "grabbing exports" during the tariff suspension period, causing commodities to strengthen. However, the first round of coke price cuts is expected to be implemented soon, coal mines are accumulating inventory, and coking coal prices are falling. Although the futures market rebounded on Wednesday, the spot market is still weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on single - side trading and consider JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [6]. - Regarding ferroalloys, in the silicon - iron market, some manufacturers in Ningxia have stopped production, which may lead to a tight supply - demand situation. In the manganese - silicon market, the area of production cuts has expanded, and the cost has a certain loosening expectation. The rebound of silicon - iron may continue strongly, while the rebound of manganese - silicon may slow down in the short term [6]. - For iron ore, the rebound driven by improved macro - sentiment provides a good cost basis. Considering the high comprehensive tariff and the end of the peak season, the market needs to consider the situation of steel apparent demand peaking and inventory under high hot - metal production. Without considering production restrictions, iron ore will remain in a volatile state in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 14, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3155 yuan/ton with a 48 - yuan increase (1.54% increase), HC2601 at 3283 yuan/ton with a 46 - yuan increase (1.42% increase), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3127 yuan/ton with a 38 - yuan increase (1.23% increase), HC2510 at 3267 yuan/ton with a 41 - yuan increase (1.27% increase), etc. [2] - **Spreads**: The cross - month spreads such as RB2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton on May 14 with a 5 - yuan decrease. The spreads/price ratios/profits like the coil - to - rebar spread was 140 yuan/ton on May 14 with a 4 - yuan increase [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 14, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3270 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3340 yuan/ton with a 90 - yuan increase, etc. [2] - **Basis**: On May 14, the basis of HC (hot - rolled coil) was 73 yuan/ton with a 38 - yuan increase, the basis of RB (rebar) was 143 yuan/ton with an 18 - yuan decrease, etc. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - Market sentiment is recovering, with weekly data showing a slight increase in the output of five major steel products and continued inventory reduction. The current situation is tight, but the outlook is weak. Low inventory supports steel prices, and if demand expectations improve, low inventory can provide upward momentum for absolute prices. The recommended trading range for rebar is 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coils is 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on long steel and short raw material arbitrage operations [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, and the price is still under pressure in the short term. Administrative production cuts still have an impact, but the form and volume of production cuts are undetermined. This week, the daily average pig iron output continued to increase slightly, reaching a high level in the same period of history. The finished products downstream continued to reduce inventory, and steel mills' profits improved, leading to continued production resumption. The future of high production levels depends on the terminal demand. Inventory increased before the festival, and the port inventory slightly accumulated. The iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure [3]. Coke - The second round of spot price increases for coke before the festival faced resistance and is currently in a negotiation stage. Considering the weakening of coking coal, the second round of price increases may not be realized. After the festival, the ex-factory price of coke will remain stable in the short term, and the port trading price will be slightly weak. The supply side is increasing production due to good orders, and the demand side is supported by high pig iron production. However, the weak coking coal, overcapacity, and lack of pricing power of coke enterprises are the main reasons for the weak decline of coke prices. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of long hot-rolled coils and short coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [5]. Coking Coal - After the festival, the supply-demand situation remains loose in the short term. The supply side includes continued production resumption of domestic mines and reduced imports of Mongolian coal. The demand side shows that downstream users are replenishing inventory, but mainly on a need-to basis. The inventory of mines is high, and the port inventory is decreasing. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main reasons for the decline in coal prices. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of long hot-rolled coils and short coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [5]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon futures fell significantly, mainly due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The supply pressure has been relieved after previous production cuts, and the factory inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, but the overall inventory is still at a medium to high level. The demand side shows an increase in pig iron production, and the non-steel demand has improved seasonally. The export growth in March is considered unsustainable. The cost side is stable, but the electricity price needs further monitoring. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will be slightly weak in the short term [6]. Ferromanganese - The main contract of ferromanganese continued to decline, mainly due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The production reduction continued during the holiday, and the output increased slightly. The demand side is supported by high pig iron production, but the sustainability depends on the terminal demand. The manganese ore market is under pressure, with a decline in global shipments and high arrival volumes. It is expected that the ferromanganese price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed different trends in different regions and contracts. The basis of some contracts changed [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel products decreased, and the profit of some steel products also decreased [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased, with a significant increase in the electric furnace output of rebar [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils decreased [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The trading volume of building materials decreased, but the apparent demand of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils increased [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot increased slightly, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed [3]. - **Supply**: The arrival volume at 45 ports, global shipments, and national monthly imports decreased [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output, 45-port daily average ore removal volume, national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The 45-port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased [3]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. The second round of spot price increases faced resistance [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of coking plants and steel mills increased [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output increased, and the inventory and available days of steel mills' coke increased [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, the coking plant inventory decreased, and the port inventory decreased [5]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. The market coal auction was cold after a short recovery [5]. - **Supply**: The production of domestic mines increased, and the import of Mongolian coal decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The coke output increased slightly, and the downstream users replenished inventory [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of mines was high, the port inventory decreased, and the inventory of downstream users was at a low level [5]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the main contract of ferrosilicon decreased, and the spot prices in some regions decreased. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in some regions decreased, and the production profit in some regions changed [6]. - **Supply**: The output of ferrosilicon remained stable, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand remained stable, the pig iron output increased, and the steel output increased [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased, and the average available days of downstream users decreased [6]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the main contract of ferromanganese decreased, and the spot prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit remained stable [6]. - **Supply**: The production of ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the operating rate decreased [6]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand increased slightly, and the procurement volume of steel mills remained stable [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average available days increased [6]. - **Manganese Ore**: The global manganese ore shipment decreased, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory increased [6].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed up 0.69% at 22,576 points, continuing the upward trend from the previous week [1] - The total market turnover was 124.49 billion HKD [1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was observed in the aviation, non-alcoholic beverage, and logistics sectors [1] - Local consumption stocks in Hong Kong showed significant gains [1] - Gold stocks also performed well, while electronic components, leisure and entertainment, and telecommunications equipment stocks declined [1] - Pharmaceutical outsourcing and mainland education stocks experienced a pullback, and automotive stocks weakened [1] Notable Stocks - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) rose nearly 6% [1] - Meituan (03690.HK) increased over 4.5% [1] - AIA Group (01299.HK) gained 3.3% [1] - NIO Inc. (09866.HK) fell 6.6% [1] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093.HK) dropped nearly 5% [1] - Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) decreased nearly 4% [1]