Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" for companies that are expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by more than 15% [82] - The rating is "Cautious Increase" for companies expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 5% to 15% [82] - The rating is "Neutral" for companies expected to perform within -5% to 5% of the CSI 300 index [82] Core Insights - The express delivery business volume is projected to reach 128.2 billion pieces by 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.8% [7][34] - The market share of major express companies shows a gradual increase, with Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong leading the market [19][20] - The average single package value has shown fluctuations, impacting revenue growth across the industry [9][41] Summary by Sections Business Volume and Revenue - The express delivery business volume is expected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 128.2 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 17.8% [7][34] - The revenue from the express delivery sector is also projected to increase, with a notable correlation to the business volume growth [41] Market Share - The market share of major players like Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong is expected to evolve, with Zhongtong showing a steady increase in market presence [19][20] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a focus on maintaining market share while navigating pricing pressures [19][20] Profitability Metrics - Profitability is expected to improve, with net profit estimates for major companies indicating a positive trend in the coming years [53] - The net profit elasticity for Zhongtong is projected to be around 9% to 52% over the forecast period, indicating strong growth potential [53] Pricing Trends - The average single ticket price has shown a slight increase, which is crucial for maintaining profitability amidst rising operational costs [41][50] - The pricing strategy will be essential for companies to sustain margins while competing in a price-sensitive market [41][50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant effects of price increases in the express delivery industry due to the "anti-involution" trend, with a focus on profit recovery during the peak season [2][6] - The express delivery business volume grew by 12.7% year-on-year in September, with cumulative growth of 17.2% from January to September [3][13] - The average price per delivery increased by 2.4% month-on-month in September, indicating a recovery in pricing power within the industry [4][23] Summary by Sections Industry Situation - In September, the express delivery business volume reached approximately 168.8 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7%. The cumulative retail sales of physical goods through online shopping amounted to 9.15 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.5% year-on-year increase [3][13] - The cumulative online shopping penetration rate is about 25.0%, with a slight decline of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][13] Company Performance - In September, SF Express led the business volume growth with a 31.81% increase, followed by YTO Express at 13.64%, Shentong Express at 9.46%, and Yunda Express at 3.63% [4][25] - Cumulatively from January to September, SF Express achieved a business volume of 121 billion pieces, with a growth rate of 28.34%, while YTO, Yunda, and Shentong had growth rates of 19.40%, 12.98%, and 17.08% respectively [4][25] Pricing Situation - The average price per delivery in the express delivery industry was 7.55 yuan in September, down 4.9% year-on-year but up 2.4% month-on-month. The cumulative average price from January to September was 7.48 yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [4][23] - Individual company pricing in September showed YTO at 2.21 yuan, Yunda at 2.02 yuan, Shentong at 2.12 yuan, and SF Express at 13.87 yuan, with SF experiencing a year-on-year decline of 13.31% [5][26] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend, particularly Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, while keeping an eye on Yunda and Shentong [7][41] - For direct-operated models, SF Express is recommended due to its potential for significant performance recovery and growth in international business [7][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry has shown signs of recovery with an increase in average delivery prices, attributed to regulatory measures against excessive competition [2][3]. - The total express delivery volume from January to September 2025 reached 1,450.8 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, while the industry revenue for the same period was 10,857.4 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [2]. - The average revenue per delivery in September was 7.55 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.91% but a month-on-month increase of 0.18 yuan, indicating a potential price recovery trend [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In September 2025, the express delivery volume was 168.8 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and the revenue was 1,273.7 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [2]. - The average delivery price has seen a slight recovery due to the "anti-involution" measures, with various regions announcing price increases ranging from 0.1 to 0.4 yuan per delivery [3]. Market Dynamics - Major express delivery companies such as SF Express, Yunda, Shentong, and YTO have reported varying growth rates in delivery volumes, with SF Express showing a significant year-on-year increase of 31.81% in September [4]. - The market concentration index (CR8) for the express delivery sector remained stable at 86.9, with slight fluctuations in market shares among leading companies [4]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the ongoing price increases and regulatory scrutiny will enhance profit margins for express delivery companies, with a focus on companies like YTO Express, Shentong Express, SF Holdings, and Yunda [5]. - The anticipated price recovery and reduced competition for market share are expected to release profit elasticity for express delivery companies [5].

新华财经北京10月14日电（记者 唐弢）长期以来，激烈的价格战持续挤压快递行业利润，成为制约行 业健康发展的瓶颈。如今，随着监管力度加大及行业共识逐步形成，快递行业正释放出告别价格战、摆 脱同质化竞争的信号。 多方人士认为，在快递业"反内卷"推进过程中，仍需各方协同发力，改变行业竞争逻辑，从"以价换 量"转向"以质取胜"。 多方人士认为，当前快递行业"内卷"已到临界点：以牺牲利润换取规模的扩张模式，短期内推高业务 量，实则侵蚀行业根基。一系列"反内卷"行动只是开始，迈向良性竞争仍面临诸多挑战。 目前，政策监管主要集中在义乌、潮汕、深圳等"核心区"，并取得一定进展。但在郑州、武汉、成都及 河北部分城市，低价竞争依然严重，政策覆盖不足。以郑州为例，部分快件价格低至1.15元，与义乌相 差无几，却鲜受关注。"反内卷"要成功，需长期、大范围持续推进。 快递服务方面，主流加盟制企业商业模式高度趋同：依赖电商件、轻资产扩张、靠规模摊薄成本。物流 专家指出，基础服务层面几乎无差异——"寄得出去、送得过来"，时效相近，标准趋同。"快递行业技 术门槛相对较低，尤其在运输与分拣环节，自动化设备、干线车辆等硬件设施易于复制。高度同 ...

Core Insights - The rapid growth of the express delivery industry in China reflects the increasing vitality of the economy and the expansion of the consumer market, with express delivery volume surpassing 1.5 billion packages by October 11, 2023, 37 days ahead of the previous year [1][2] - The express delivery business revenue reached 958.37 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2023, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while the business volume grew by 17.8% [1] - The growth in express delivery volume indicates the potential of the domestic market being released, enhancing the role of consumption in economic growth [2] Industry Growth and Quality Improvement - The express delivery development index in China is projected to reach 424.9 by August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with both the development scale index and trend index also showing significant growth [3] - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend is improving the quality of development in the express delivery industry, as companies focus more on enhancing service capabilities rather than engaging in price wars [3][4] - The average price per delivery for YTO Express rose to 2.15 yuan in August, indicating a shift towards more sustainable profit margins and improved service quality [4] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to face new challenges with the upcoming "Double 11" shopping festival, but advancements in automation and smart technology are anticipated to enhance logistics service quality [5] - The integration of the express delivery industry with upstream and downstream sectors is becoming tighter, which will provide stronger logistical support for future economic development [5]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing a price increase due to intense competition and cost pressures, impacting e-commerce sellers and the financial performance of express companies, particularly Yunda Express, which has seen a significant decline in profits [1][3][8]. Price Increase and Market Dynamics - The price increase in the express delivery sector is not solely due to rising costs but is a reaction to extreme competition within the industry [3]. - Starting from July, cities like Yiwu and Guangdong have raised the minimum express delivery price, with Guangdong's price increasing by 0.4 yuan per ticket, setting a new average of over 1.4 yuan [4][5]. - The price adjustments are expected to influence the entire industry, as Guangdong and Zhejiang account for nearly half of the national express delivery capacity [5]. Impact on E-commerce and Profitability - The increase in delivery costs is affecting the sales and profit margins of e-commerce sellers, particularly for low-margin small items, leading some sellers to seek cheaper delivery options or shift to higher-margin products [6][7]. - The overall growth rate of express delivery business volume has slowed, with August's growth dropping to 12.3% from 15.1% in July, despite a total of 161.5 billion packages delivered in August [6]. Performance of Major Express Companies - Among the major express companies, SF Express leads with a revenue of 146.86 billion yuan, followed by YTO Express and Shentong Express, with Yunda Express experiencing a 49.19% decline in net profit, the largest drop among listed express companies [9][10]. - Yunda Express's single ticket revenue fell to 1.92 yuan, a decrease of 3.52%, placing it at the bottom among its peers [10][11]. Industry Positioning and Future Outlook - Yunda Express's market position is increasingly precarious, with its business volume growth lagging behind competitors like Shentong Express, which may surpass Yunda in performance during the peak e-commerce season [13][14]. - The express delivery industry is entering a new phase where technological advancements and service quality improvements are becoming critical for growth, as the market approaches a saturation point [19][20]. - Companies like SF Express and Zhongtong are investing heavily in technology and infrastructure, while Yunda's technological investments and fixed asset growth are comparatively slower, raising concerns about its competitive edge [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (02057) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 151.4 HKD, with a transaction volume of 421 million HKD, driven by favorable industry developments and policy changes [1] Industry Summary - The "anti-involution" policy has catalyzed positive signals in the express delivery industry, leading to a substantial valuation recovery [1] - In early May, Yiwu's express delivery prices began to show slight recovery, followed by multiple meetings held by the State Post Bureau regarding "anti-involution" in July [1] - Price increases were initiated in early August in South China and in Yiwu by the end of August, with preliminary data indicating a month-on-month price recovery among major e-commerce express companies [1] - Since September, several regions in Central and Northern China have also experienced month-on-month price recovery, suggesting a positive trend as the peak season approaches with Double Eleven [1] Company Summary - Guohai Securities highlighted ZTO Express's significant scale effect and superior single-ticket profitability, which is expected to widen the gap with competitors as product and business structures continue to optimize [1] - The ongoing cost reduction projects across the entire supply chain are anticipated to enhance single-ticket profitability further [1] - In the short term, a strategy focused on balancing volume and price is expected to restore profits and growth, while the long-term outlook remains positive for leading e-commerce express companies due to their strong management capabilities [1]

Core Insights - The recent price increases in the express delivery market across multiple regions are a response to the severe "involution" within the industry, aiming to improve service quality despite rising costs for consumers [1][2] - The express delivery industry has faced significant profit compression due to low pricing strategies, leading to long-term losses for some frontline outlets, which affects the overall health of the companies [1] - The National Postal Administration has called for enhanced industry regulation and the establishment of market rules to combat "involution-style" competition, providing policy guidance for the healthy development of the express delivery sector [1] Industry Dynamics - The price adjustments are seen as a necessary step towards a more sustainable and balanced industry ecosystem, promoting high-quality development [2] - Companies are encouraged to invest in infrastructure, enhance automation, and optimize operational processes to ensure timely and accurate delivery [1] - Service innovation is essential for companies to offer diverse and personalized service options, meeting varying consumer demands regarding delivery speed, packaging, and service quality [1][2]

Group 1 - Major express companies including Jitu, Zhongtong, Yuantong, Shentong, and Yunda announced price increases for express delivery in Shanghai, with a rise of 0.2 to 0.4 yuan per order [1][2] - Since August, multiple express companies in regions such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hunan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, and Fujian have also issued price increase notices, indicating a broader trend of price adjustments across the industry [1][2] - The collective price increase follows a previous industry consensus in 2021 to stop price wars, highlighting the ongoing challenges of low-price competition within the express delivery sector [1][2] Group 2 - The price adjustments are primarily targeting e-commerce special offers, small items, and low-priced orders from major clients, with no significant impact on personal delivery costs [3][4] - A report from Zheshang Securities indicates that regions that have announced price increases account for over 80% of the express market share, suggesting a potential for sustained price recovery [3] - The upcoming peak season for express delivery in autumn and winter may further support price increases, indicating a trend towards improved pricing stability in the industry [3] Group 3 - Experts suggest that the price increase will not significantly affect personal delivery costs, as the focus is on e-commerce items, while personal parcel services remain stable due to sufficient profit margins [4][5] - The increase in delivery costs may lead merchants to adjust their pricing strategies, potentially reducing promotional offers or increasing minimum purchase requirements for free shipping [5] - The long-term outlook suggests that the price adjustments could lead to improved service quality and operational efficiency, benefiting both merchants and consumers in the logistics experience [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase in the express delivery sector, initiated by major companies like Jitu, Zhongtong, and Yuantong, reflects a broader trend driven by policy and cost pressures, aiming to curb long-standing low-price competition in the industry [1][3]. Price Increase Details - Five leading express companies have raised the collection prices in Shanghai by 0.2 to 0.4 yuan per order [1]. - Similar price adjustments have occurred in key e-commerce regions such as Zhejiang and Guangdong, indicating a widespread trend [1][3]. - The price hikes primarily target low-priced orders below cost, while personal parcel rates remain unaffected [1]. Cost Pressures and Industry Response - The express delivery industry has been facing rising costs, including increased wages for delivery personnel and higher transportation and packaging expenses [5]. - The average price for express services has decreased by nearly 8% year-on-year, with major companies experiencing a decline in per-order revenue [5]. - Companies are shifting from a volume-driven strategy to a quality-focused approach to maintain profitability [5][6]. Financial Impact on Companies - The price increase is expected to enhance station revenues and improve the income of delivery personnel [4]. - For instance, a single station estimates that a 0.1 yuan increase in per-order revenue could lead to an additional 1.5 million yuan in monthly income [4]. Market Dynamics and Regional Variations - The price increase has not been uniformly adopted across all regions, with core areas like Guangdong and Zhejiang implementing changes while non-core areas maintain previous pricing strategies [6]. - The disparity in e-commerce density affects the pace of price adjustments, with some regions still engaging in price competition to attract customers [6]. Effects on Related Industries - The rise in express delivery costs has led to the cancellation of shipping insurance by some merchants, particularly in the high-return apparel sector, which may impact sales conversion rates [7]. - The cancellation of shipping insurance could also affect reverse logistics, which has been a significant revenue source for express stations [7]. Future Outlook - While the price increases may improve profit margins, the long-term effectiveness in curbing low-price competition remains uncertain, as consumer acceptance of higher prices is crucial [7].