降息周期开启，周期有何投资机会？20250921 摘要 BDI 指数在历史降息周期中显著上涨，当前干散货运价仍处底部。关注 招商轮船、海通发展等标的，以及在新兴市场具有成长性的嘉友国际。 降息利好新兴市场基建和消费，推动资金流入。看好极兔速递在新兴市 场电商爆发期的发展潜力，尤其是在东南亚和拉美地区。 美元贬值及人民币升值利好航空板块，带来汇兑收益。推荐华夏航空、 港股中的国航、东航、南航，以及 A 股中的吉祥航空和春秋航空。 游轮运价近期大幅上涨，供需关系反转是主因。OPEC 恢复产量， VLOC 游轮交付量减少，美国制裁影响供给。推荐具备游轮和干散货双 重优势的招商轮船。 8 月通达系快递单票价格上涨，9 月涨价区域扩大至全国 90%件量份额 区域，快递行业反内卷成功，业绩有望改善。推荐圆通、申通及极兔速 递。 美联储降息打开国内降息空间，中美关系缓和利好风险偏好。化工行业 PPI 降幅收窄，景气度见底。关注烯烃（宝丰能源、卫星化学）、涤纶、 有机硅（新安股份、三友化工、东岳硅材）和农化（亚钾国际、东方铁 塔）子板块。 市场对有色金属板块看多，预计下周将交易降息预期。铜和黄金预计领 涨，关注紫金矿业、中国 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [6][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in August 2025, with revenue from express services reaching RMB 4.434 billion, a year-over-year increase of 14.47%. The total business volume was 2.147 billion pieces, up 10.92% year-over-year, and the average revenue per piece was RMB 2.06, reflecting a 3.00% year-over-year increase [7][11]. - The report anticipates continued growth in average revenue per piece and overall profit margins due to price increases in the industry, driven by recent adjustments in pricing strategies in key regions [11]. - The profit forecast for the company has been revised upwards, with expected net profits of RMB 1.382 billion, RMB 1.734 billion, and RMB 2.097 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-over-year growth rates of 33%, 26%, and 21% [10][11]. Company Overview - The company operates in the transportation industry, specifically in express delivery services, with a market capitalization of RMB 25.016 billion as of September 18, 2025 [2]. - The stock price as of the same date was RMB 17.05, with a 12-month high of RMB 19.73 and a low of RMB 9.42 [2]. - Major shareholders include Zhejiang Cainiao Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., holding 25% of the shares [2]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 1.382 billion in 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be RMB 0.90, translating to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.89 [10]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 40.924 billion in 2023 to RMB 54.661 billion in 2025, with operating profit increasing significantly over the same period [14]. Market Position - The company holds a dominant position in the express delivery market, with 98.7% of its revenue derived from express services [3]. - Institutional investors hold 46.4% of the circulating A-shares, indicating a strong interest from larger investment entities [4].

近期，快递行业迎来新一轮价格调整。继浙江、广东之后，湖北、天津、山东、辽宁等地陆续宣布上调快递费用。据快递 公司内部消息，此次调价涉及多个省份，旨在应对运营成本上升压力。 黑龙江地区成为最新调价区域。9月15日至16日，圆通等主流快递品牌发布公告，明确自9月20日零时起，将根据企业成本 对黑龙江地区收件价格进行上调，同时要求对库存单补齐差价。这一举措被业内视为规范市场竞争的重要步骤。 此前，国家邮政局已释放明确信号。7月29日召开的快递企业座谈会上，监管部门重点讨论了治理行业"内卷式"竞争的问 题，特别强调要整治农村地区违规收费现象。会议明确要求加强监管执法力度，切实保障消费者和从业人员的合法权益。 据证券时报9月2日报道，快递行业"反内卷"进程正在加速。在电商业务集中的广东、浙江两省，多家快递企业已对电商客 户实施提价。业内人士透露，除已调整的浙江义乌、广东地区外，福建、安徽、江苏、山东等地也存在涨价预期，调价范 围可能进一步扩大。 ...

Summary of YTO Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: YTO Express - **Industry**: Express Delivery Key Points and Arguments Market Position and Competition - YTO Express has narrowed the market share gap with ZTO Express from 6.8 percentage points in 2023 to 3.7 percentage points in the first half of 2025, further reducing to 3.5 percentage points in Q2 2025, indicating a competitive momentum [2][5] - As of Q2 2025, YTO Express's market share is 16%, ZTO Express is 19.5%, and other competitors include Yunda at 13.2%, Shentong at 12.9%, and Jitu at 11.1% [5] Business Growth and Performance - YTO Express's e-commerce express delivery volume growth rate for the first half of 2025 is 21.8%, surpassing the industry average of 19.3% and ZTO Express's 17.7%, showcasing a leading growth advantage [2][5] - The profit per ticket for YTO Express in Q2 has narrowed to within 0.09 yuan of ZTO Express, down from a difference of 0.21 yuan in Q1 2019, indicating improving profitability [2][5] Cost Control and Operational Efficiency - YTO Express is leveraging technology to reduce costs and enhance service quality, with significant capital expenditures aimed at improving transfer centers and updating automation equipment, leading to a capital expenditure scale that has surpassed ZTO Express since 2024 [2][6] - The combined cost of single ticket trunk transportation and center operations has narrowed to 0.59 yuan in Q2 2024, down from 1.05 yuan in 2019, demonstrating effective cost control [6] Price Elasticity in the Market - YTO Express has shown significant price elasticity in the context of the anti-involution trend in the express delivery industry, with a notable price increase in the Yiwu region in 2021 leading to improved profitability [7][8] - The average ticket price in Yiwu rose from 2.94 yuan in September 2021, reflecting a recovery from a negative growth rate to a positive 2% by Q4 2021 [8] Future Profitability Projections - Based on simulations, YTO Express's express delivery scale profit is projected to reach 6.1 billion yuan in 2026 under neutral assumptions, corresponding to a current P/E ratio of about 10 times, indicating that the stock price has not fully reflected the profit transmission effects from price increases [3][10] - The target market value for YTO Express is set at 68.6 billion yuan, based on a 15 times P/E ratio for 2026, with expectations for future catalysts including monthly operational data showing improvements in ticket revenue [10] Impact of Anti-Involution on Market Value - The anti-involution trend has significantly impacted company valuations, with YTO Express experiencing a 267% increase in market value from Q3 2021 to Q1 2022, outperforming competitors [9][10] Additional Important Insights - The anti-involution trend began in August 2025, with price increases in the Guangdong market leading to a broader trend across various regions, affecting over 80% of the market [4][5] - The regulatory environment has shifted towards managing low-price competition, emphasizing the need for sustainable growth in the express delivery sector [4]

继续推荐快递板块！——行业反内卷与旺季连接，全面扩 散趋势已形成，持续性或超预期！20250914 摘要 2025 年快递行业反内卷监管力度加大，国家邮政局联合企业召开座谈 会，广东地区停止价格战并提价，锁盘期延至 9 月 20 日，显示出强监 管决心。 快递行业业务量增速放缓，预计 2025 年全年增速 15%左右，未来或回 归个位数增长，但业绩弹性主要来自单票价格和利润提升，提价是关键。 各地提价效果存在差异，广东监管严格效果显著，义乌因地方政府态度 谨慎效果不佳，福建、浙江等地陆续提价，但核心城市尚未全面实施。 市场对反内卷政策反馈积极，但义乌二次涨价未及预期曾引发股市调整， 总体乐观，期待政策有效传导至上市公司盈利能力提升。 2025 年快递行业价格上涨具有扩散性和持续性，多地提价且进入旺季， 与 2024 年仅广东提价且未形成大规模联动的情况形成对比。 最高法解释二明确企业未缴足社保，劳动者可诉讼追缴，预计国家将扩 大社保缴纳范围，但相关成本尚未实质落地，暂未纳入利润测算。 推荐快递公司顺序为申通、圆通、中通、韵达。申通弹性大，与阿里即 时零售整合紧密；圆通总部利润分配比例高；中通支持加盟商成长；韵 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from strong elasticity in performance under the "anti-involution" trend in the industry, with key indicators approaching those of industry leaders [1][3] - The market share gap between the company and the leading competitor is gradually narrowing, with the company achieving the second-largest market share in the industry in 2023 [1][10] - The company's single-ticket net profit margin is closing in on that of its main competitor, with a significant reduction in the profit gap [2][15] Summary by Sections Market Position and Performance - The company surpassed Yunda to become the second-largest player in the industry in 2023, maintaining a business volume growth rate higher than the industry average [1][10] - The market share difference between the company and Zhongtong decreased from 6.8 percentage points in 2023 to 3.5 percentage points in Q2 2025 [1][10] - In Q2 2025, the company's e-commerce express business growth rate was 21.8%, outperforming the industry average of 17.3% [1][14] Profitability and Cost Management - The difference in single-ticket net profit (excluding non-recurring items) between the company and Zhongtong has narrowed to less than 0.1 yuan [2][15] - In Q2 2025, the company's single-ticket net profit decreased by 22.8%, the smallest decline among major competitors [16] - The company's cost efficiency has improved, with the single-ticket transportation and sorting costs decreasing significantly over the years [29][31] Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The report highlights the potential for price and profit improvement in the industry, supported by historical trends from 2021 to 2022 [3][40] - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 43.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a target price of 25.4 yuan, representing a potential upside of approximately 37% from the current price [48] - The report anticipates that the company will benefit from price elasticity as the industry moves away from "involution" competition [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express [5][9]. Core Views - The company reported a Q2 net profit of 2.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 26.8%, with a business volume of 9.847 billion pieces, representing a 16.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company has adjusted its full-year business volume guidance to 38.8-40.1 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14%-18%, down from the previous guidance of 40.8-42.2 billion pieces [1]. - The report highlights that the company is focusing on quality over quantity in a competitive pricing environment, which has led to a decrease in market share by 0.1 percentage points to 19.5% [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q2, the company's single-ticket revenue decreased from 1.24 yuan to 1.18 yuan, primarily due to increased incentives and a decline in average weight [2]. - The single-ticket core cost increased by 8.6% year-on-year to 0.89 yuan, while the core cost (transportation + sorting) decreased by 0.07 yuan [2][3]. - The single-ticket gross profit fell from 0.42 yuan to 0.29 yuan, indicating significant pressure from pricing competition [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a relatively stable profit level despite the ongoing price wars, indicating strong safety margins [4]. Company Overview - ZTO Express is a large group company that integrates express delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and printing services, operating a highly scalable network partner model [6]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 120.778 billion HKD, with a circulating market value of 89.595 billion HKD [6].

全国主要产粮区基本都涨价了，涨价幅度高低不一，从0.1元到1元不等。 过去十年，电商与快递共生发展，催生了三五元包邮的时代。无论涨多少，对于三块九、四块九包邮的商家来说，意味着发货成本的上涨，这些原本依靠 廉价快递费赚钱，甚至不少赚快递钱的商家，正在慢慢消失，电商产业也有望借势完成升级。 低价电商坐不住了 在电商同样内卷的环境里，成本上涨时，要么提价，要么牺牲利润，否则只能被更有规模的大卖家挤掉。低价争夺中，有时候差一毛甚至5分钱，就能决 定商家的生死。 亿豹网认为，正是因为快递费长期太低了，商家才敢于抛出三四块钱包邮的策略，并利用末端的管理漏洞让快递买单。任何一个行业，都不应该拿另外一 个行业的血汗换取利润。 因此，快递涨价，并非简单的商业行为，对于快递行业高质量发展、电商产业转型升级，都有着重要的推动作用。 以河北为例，作为全国快递业务量第四大省，保定、石家庄、廊坊、邢台等产粮区发货价格较低，一块二三的价格遍地开花，甚至比广东产粮区价格还 低，尽管一度拉高了整体业务量，但河北的特价件同样要全国网点为之买单，产业升级迫在眉睫。 此轮上涨0.5元到1元不等，河北的电商首先坐不住了。一位河北毛巾卖家吐槽："各大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue was 12.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 210 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.9% [2][4]. - The second quarter saw intensified industry competition, leading to a decline in the company's net profit per parcel, which fell by 0.07 yuan to 0.03 yuan year-on-year and decreased by 0.02 yuan quarter-on-quarter [2][10]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the express delivery industry is gradually restoring prices in regions such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Fujian, suggesting potential recovery in the company's performance in the second half of the year [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 24.83 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 530 million yuan, down 49.2% year-on-year [4]. - In Q2 2025, the company handled 6.65 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, but its market share decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 13.2% [10]. - The average revenue per parcel dropped by 0.11 yuan to 1.91 yuan, with the gross profit margin under pressure due to increased price competition [10]. Cost Management - The company has been optimizing its cost structure, with the per-parcel operating expenses decreasing by 0.01 yuan to 0.07 yuan [10]. - Despite the cost optimization, the net investment income fell by 260 million yuan year-on-year due to a high base from the previous year [10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 1.51 billion yuan, 1.86 billion yuan, and 2.06 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15.3, 12.5, and 11.3 times [10].

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is entering a recovery phase in profitability, with price increases expected to be implemented gradually starting in September 2023, aligning with price hikes in Guangdong province [1][2] - The structure of express delivery volumes is shifting towards lighter and smaller packages, which, while increasing volume, also adds pressure on profitability for both network points and headquarters [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Profitability Recovery**: The anticipated price increases are expected to alleviate competition in the industry, particularly during the peak season in Q4, leading to improved profitability [1][2] - **Impact of Price Increases**: The average price increase across the industry is approximately 0.4 yuan, with specific regions like Guangdong extending price lock periods to ensure sustainability [2] - **Historical Context**: The express delivery industry experienced significant price increases in 2021 and maintained stability in 2022. However, 2023 and 2024 saw targeted price adjustments, with a new round of anti-competition measures expected in 2025 [3] - **Pressure on Franchisees**: The net profit of express delivery companies has declined year-on-year, particularly in grain-producing areas like Yiwu and Guangzhou, where prices have dropped to historical lows, squeezing franchisee profitability [6] - **Social Security Costs**: A new judicial interpretation regarding social security contributions, effective September 1, 2023, is expected to increase labor costs for franchise networks, potentially adding 0.11 to 0.23 yuan to the cost per package [7][8] - **E-commerce Impact**: The average order value for e-commerce is around 75 yuan, with logistics costs accounting for less than 5%. A price increase of 0.50 yuan in express delivery costs would have a minimal impact on overall e-commerce operating costs [9] Additional Important Insights - **Franchisee Challenges**: The new social security regulations may further strain franchisee operations, especially if profitability pressures persist [7][8] - **Future Profit Projections**: Profit growth for major companies in 2026 is projected to be significant, with estimates of 21% for Zhongtong, 26% for Yuantong, 30% for Yunda, and 31% for Shentong, with potential seasonal increases during peak periods [9] - **Investor Recommendations**: Investors are advised to closely monitor the implementation of pricing policies and the ongoing anti-competition measures, as the overall profitability of the industry is expected to improve in the latter half of the year [10]