Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil market is experiencing a high-level fluctuation and decline, leading to a decrease in the domestic reference crude oil change rate, which is expected to result in a retail price adjustment for refined oil being suspended on August 12 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The current pricing cycle (from July 29 to August 12) has seen a high-level fluctuation in international crude oil prices, with a calculated increase of 20 yuan/ton, which is below the 50 yuan/ton adjustment threshold set by the National Development and Reform Commission [1]. - Factors contributing to the weak fluctuation of oil prices include lower-than-expected non-farm data, concerns about economic recession, and an oversupply expectation due to increased production by OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia [1][2]. - The upcoming meeting between the leaders of the US and Russia on August 15 is adding further downward pressure on oil prices, reversing some of the gains driven by previous geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 2: Price Adjustment Expectations - As of August 8, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was at 0.52%, indicating an expected increase of 20 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, with the adjustment window set for August 12 at 24:00 [1]. - The probability of a suspension in the adjustment of domestic refined oil retail prices is high due to the current change rate being below the adjustment threshold [2].

按照成品油调价时间表来看，6月3日24时，国内成品油零售限价将迎来新一轮调整时间点。 据机构跟踪的国际原油价格变动状况预测最新数据显示，本轮成品油零售限价上调幅度超过50元/吨的 价格调整红线，预计本轮成品油零售限价将上调。 成品油零售限价或迎上调 卓创资讯成品油分析师郑明亚表示，国内成品油本轮计价周期初期，原油变化率是正值高位开局，后期 在国际贸易局势演变、地缘局势以及"欧佩克+"7月计划石油增产等因素的共同影响下，国际原油期货价 格呈现震荡下跌走势，原油变化率正值收窄，但对应的成品油零售限价仍符合50元/吨的上调条件。 卓创资讯监测模型测算显示，截至6月2日收盘，即国内成品油本轮计价周期的第10个工作日，参考原油 变化率为1.53%，对应的汽、柴油零售限价每吨预计分别上调65元、60元，折合成升价后，92号汽油、 95号汽油、0号柴油预计均上调0.05元，为今年以来第四次上调。 从批发市场来看，近期，国内成品油批发市场呈现"汽跌柴涨"局面。隆众资讯数据监测，国内成品 油本轮计价周期以来，92号汽油价格为7692元/吨，环比下跌0.53%；0号柴油价格为6683元/吨，环 比上涨1.64%。 来源：中国证券 ...