Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to be lowered significantly, marking the ninth reduction this year, with a predicted decrease of approximately 300 yuan/ton for both gasoline and diesel [1][2][3]. Price Adjustment Expectations - The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments is set to occur on October 27, with expectations of a reduction exceeding 50 yuan/ton [1]. - The current reference crude oil change rate stands at -6.93%, indicating a strong likelihood of price cuts for gasoline and diesel [2]. - Analysts predict that the prices for 92 gasoline and 0 diesel will decrease by 0.24 yuan/liter and 0.26 yuan/liter, respectively [2]. Historical Context - Since 2025, there have been twenty rounds of price adjustments, resulting in six increases, eight decreases, and six instances of no change [3]. - The cumulative price reductions for gasoline and diesel since the end of last year are 480 yuan/ton and 460 yuan/ton, respectively [3]. Market Trends - Recent data shows that the average market price for 92 gasoline is 7418 yuan/ton, down 3.18% from the previous adjustment cycle, while diesel is at 6451 yuan/ton, down 1.78% [5]. - The overall supply remains stable, but demand has weakened, contributing to a bearish market sentiment [5]. - Analysts express caution regarding future oil prices, noting that geopolitical factors and production adjustments could influence market dynamics [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease significantly, marking the ninth reduction this year, with a predicted drop of approximately 300 yuan/ton for both gasoline and diesel [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Expectations - The new round of domestic refined oil retail price adjustments is set to occur on October 27, with expectations of a reduction exceeding 50 yuan/ton [1]. - The current reference crude oil price change rate is at -6.93%, indicating a strong likelihood of price reductions for gasoline and diesel [2]. - Analysts predict that the price of 92 gasoline and 0 diesel will decrease by 0.24 yuan/liter and 0.26 yuan/liter, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The international crude oil prices have shown a mixed trend, initially declining and then rebounding slightly due to geopolitical tensions in Europe and decreasing U.S. oil inventories [2][5]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a weak demand for oil and a stable supply contributing to the downward pressure on prices [5]. - The average market price for 92 gasoline is currently 7418 yuan/ton, down 3.18% from the previous pricing cycle, while diesel is at 6451 yuan/ton, down 1.78% [5]. Group 3: Historical Context - Since 2025, there have been 20 rounds of price adjustments, with the current trend showing six increases, eight decreases, and six instances of no change [3]. - The cumulative price drop for gasoline and diesel since the end of last year is 480 yuan/ton and 460 yuan/ton, respectively [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to remain unchanged due to insufficient adjustment requirements based on the latest international crude oil price trends [1] Group 1: Price Adjustment Forecast - As of September 23, the predicted adjustment for domestic refined oil retail prices is less than 50 yuan/ton, indicating that the price adjustment will likely be suspended [1] - The average price of the referenced crude oil types is reported to be 65.20 USD/barrel, with a crude oil price change rate of 0.19%, which does not meet the criteria for price adjustment [1] - Analyst Liu Bingjuan from Longzhong Information confirms that the adjustment range for refined oil retail prices is below the 50 yuan/ton threshold, reinforcing the expectation of no adjustment this round [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current round of retail fuel price adjustment is likely to be suspended due to insufficient adjustment margin, with the expected increase in gasoline and diesel prices being only 15 yuan/ton, which does not meet the 50 yuan/ton requirement for adjustment [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle (from September 9 to September 23), international crude oil prices showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the change rate moving from negative to positive but remaining at a low level [1] - As of September 22, the reference crude oil change rate was 0.39%, indicating a potential increase in retail fuel prices by 15 yuan/ton, with the adjustment window set for September 23 at 24:00 [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The crude oil market has been influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, including concerns over oil supply due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, which initially supported higher oil prices [1] - However, as geopolitical disturbances have lessened and expectations of oil inventory accumulation remain, crude oil prices have shown a weak trend in recent days [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the ongoing inventory accumulation cycle will exert downward pressure on oil prices, while factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and disturbances in Europe may provide some support [1] - For the next pricing cycle, the initial crude oil change rate is expected to start negatively, with a projected retail fuel price decrease of 80 yuan/ton, with the adjustment window on October 13 at 24:00 [1] - The upcoming adjustment cycle will span the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, leading to significant uncertainty regarding the final price adjustment outcome [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the retail price adjustment for refined oil is likely to be suspended due to the current pricing not reaching the adjustment threshold, despite a slight increase in crude oil prices during the recent pricing cycle [1][2] - During the pricing cycle from September 9 to September 23, international crude oil prices showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the change rate moving from negative to a low positive value, suggesting limited room for retail price adjustments [1] - The monitoring model from Zhaochuang Information indicates that as of September 22, the reference crude oil change rate was 0.39%, leading to an expected increase of 15 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, but still below the retail price adjustment threshold [1] Group 2 - Zhaochuang Information forecasts that the oil price will face downward pressure due to inventory accumulation, while factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and disturbances in Europe provide some support for oil prices [2] - The new pricing cycle is expected to start with a negative change rate, with an anticipated retail price decrease of 80 yuan per ton, and the adjustment window set for October 13, which coincides with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, adding uncertainty to the final outcome [2]

9月23日24时，国内成品油零售限价将迎来新一轮调整时间点。机构跟踪的最新国际原油价格变动状况预测数据显 示，本轮成品油零售限价上调幅度不足50元/吨的调整要求，因此本轮成品油零售限价调整大概率将搁浅。 2025年以来，国内成品油零售限价已经历18轮调整窗口，分别为"六涨七跌五搁浅"。调价后，国内汽、柴油价格每吨 较去年底分别下跌405元、390元。 | | 2025年以来发改委成品油调价幅度汇总(单位:元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 日期 1月2日24时 | 汽油 70 | 柴油 70 | | | 1月16日24时 | 340 | 325 | | 上调 | 4月2日24时 | 230 | 220 | | | 6月3日24时 | 65 | 60 | | | 6月17日24时 | 260 | 255 | | | 7月1日24时 2月19日24时 | 235 -170 | 225 -160 | | | 3月5日24时 | -135 | -130 | | | 3月19日24时 | -280 | -270 | | 下调 | 4月17日24时 | -480 | - ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite concerns over oversupply and weak demand leading to a decline in oil prices, geopolitical risks persist and market fears of future resource supply reductions have caused international oil prices to rise intermittently [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The change rate of crude oil shifted from negative to positive, reaching 0.59% as of September 19, indicating a potential adjustment in oil pricing [1] - An expected increase of 25 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices is anticipated, with the adjustment window set for September 9 at 24:00 [1] Group 2: Retail Price Adjustments - Current calculations suggest that the final retail price adjustment for refined oil may not reach the necessary condition of a 50 yuan per ton increase, indicating a possible stalling of this round of retail price adjustments [1]

距离调价窗口开启还有1个工作日，卓创资讯预计，地缘扰动虽有支撑，但美国石油需求转淡以及全球 油市供应过剩前景，将持续施压，油价存在趋弱可能，因此，本轮（9月23日24时）国内成品油调价搁 浅概率较大。 本计价周期以来（2025年9月9日24时至2025年9月23日24时），国际原油价格呈偏强区间波动，受此影 响，国内参考的原油变化率由负转正但低位运行，第9个工作日计算后的调整幅度在25元/吨，未达国家 发改委50元/吨的调价红线。距离调价窗口还有一个工作日，预计明日（9月23日）24时，国内成品油调 价搁浅概率较大。 本计价周期内，国际原油整体呈现震荡偏强走势，均价水平稍有上移。虽然欧佩克+会议决定10月份继 续增产，且美国石油库存增加，市场对于供应过剩压力预期依然较高，导致国际油价冲高乏力，但由于 期间中东地缘冲突再起，引发国际原油阶段反弹走高，从整体看本周期原油价格呈现震荡上涨走势，国 内参考的原油变化率由负转正但保持正值低位运行。据卓创资讯测算，截至9月19日收盘，国内第9个工 作日参考原油变化率0.59%，预计汽柴油上调25元/吨，未达成品油零售限价50元/吨的调价红线。 若本次调价以搁浅落地，成品油 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail prices of refined oil products are expected to decrease due to a negative change rate in crude oil prices, with specific reductions in gasoline and diesel prices confirmed for August 26 [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of August 25, the change rate for crude oil is -4.09%, leading to a forecasted reduction of 180 yuan/ton for gasoline and 175 yuan/ton for diesel [1] - The adjusted prices for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel will decrease by 0.14 yuan, 0.15 yuan, and 0.15 yuan per liter, respectively [1] - After the price adjustment, filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost 7 yuan less for private car owners [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - The current calculations indicate a potential positive change rate for crude oil prices, suggesting an expectation for future increases in domestic refined oil retail prices [1] - The next price adjustment window is set for September 9 at 24:00 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil market is experiencing a high-level fluctuation and decline, leading to a decrease in the domestic reference crude oil change rate, which is expected to result in a retail price adjustment for refined oil being suspended on August 12 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The current pricing cycle (from July 29 to August 12) has seen a high-level fluctuation in international crude oil prices, with a calculated increase of 20 yuan/ton, which is below the 50 yuan/ton adjustment threshold set by the National Development and Reform Commission [1]. - Factors contributing to the weak fluctuation of oil prices include lower-than-expected non-farm data, concerns about economic recession, and an oversupply expectation due to increased production by OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia [1][2]. - The upcoming meeting between the leaders of the US and Russia on August 15 is adding further downward pressure on oil prices, reversing some of the gains driven by previous geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 2: Price Adjustment Expectations - As of August 8, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was at 0.52%, indicating an expected increase of 20 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, with the adjustment window set for August 12 at 24:00 [1]. - The probability of a suspension in the adjustment of domestic refined oil retail prices is high due to the current change rate being below the adjustment threshold [2].