Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the real estate market in China, particularly focusing on new and second-hand housing transactions in major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - In early June 2025, new home transaction volumes in 40 key cities decreased by 36% month-on-month, with significant contraction in first-tier cities [1][3]. - The second-hand housing market remains relatively stable, with absolute transaction volumes still higher than new homes, indicating overall market weakness [1][4]. - In Shanghai, second-hand home transactions showed a declining trend, with April's volume barely maintaining above 20,000 units, dropping further in May [8][9]. Price Trends - The price indices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have been fluctuating downwards, falling below levels seen before policy changes in February 2025 and September 2024, suggesting potential further price declines in the coming months [1][6][7]. - In Shanghai, the proportion of high-end second-hand homes priced above 11 million yuan decreased from 3.7% in April to 2.63% in May, while the proportion of affordable homes under 3 million yuan increased [11]. Inventory and Supply Issues - Most cities have inventory turnover cycles exceeding 18 months, with insufficient new home supply leading to increased absolute inventory levels [1][23]. - Private enterprises hold less than 20% of the land market, while state-owned enterprises dominate with 80%, indicating a lack of competition and innovation in land acquisition [22]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain stable until the end of 2025, but challenges may arise in 2026 due to limited high-quality land supply and the potential exhaustion of high-end buyers [18][30]. - The government is anticipated to implement further policies to stabilize prices in core cities, with a focus on maintaining market confidence [41]. Policy Impact - Continuous policy support is deemed necessary for stabilizing price expectations in core cities, with recommendations to invest in development stocks during key political meetings [2][31]. - The impact of rumored restrictions on resale has affected market sentiment, leading to some developers offering discounts on existing properties [32]. Regional Differences - The performance of the real estate market varies significantly across different regions, with core urban areas showing more resilience compared to suburban regions [12][25]. - The price dynamics in Shanghai's inner and outer rings reflect a disparity, with inner ring prices continuing to rise while outer ring prices remain stagnant [15]. Transaction Volume and Market Dynamics - The transaction volume for second-hand homes is expected to face challenges due to various factors, including limited quality supply and economic uncertainties [33]. - The overall trend in the second-hand market shows a gradual increase in transaction volume, driven by a growing inventory base and suppressed new home supply [34]. Conclusion - The real estate market in China is currently characterized by a mix of stability and underlying challenges, with significant reliance on government policies to navigate through the complexities of supply, demand, and pricing dynamics [30][41].

Group 1: Real Estate Market Insights - The company actively responds to policies regarding special bonds for purchasing real estate, collaborating closely with local governments on land storage matters [3] - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with new home sales in key cities experiencing year-on-year growth in Q4 last year and Q1 this year [3] - In March, the company successfully acquired approximately 27 acres of land in a core area of Chongqing, enhancing its resource portfolio [3] Group 2: Market Value Management - The company emphasizes market value management, implementing measures such as share buybacks and stakeholder engagement to boost market confidence [5] - A structured management mechanism for market value, including a "Market Value Management System" and "Valuation Enhancement Plan," has been established [5] - Future efforts will focus on transparent operations and enhancing business quality to reflect true corporate value in the capital market [5] Group 3: Debt Management - The company primarily relies on medium to long-term bank loans for its existing debt and adheres to a strict "631" risk management principle to ensure timely debt repayment [5] Group 4: Cultural and Tourism Business Development - The cultural and tourism sector is a core business area, with the company responding to national policies aimed at boosting consumption through various initiatives [6] - The company is innovating its operational strategies, focusing on enhancing existing projects and developing new products to capture market opportunities [6] - The company plans to upgrade existing theme parks and hotels, aiming to improve competitiveness and attract a broader customer base [6] Group 5: Asset Optimization Strategies - The company employs various asset optimization methods, including regulatory adjustments, inventory acquisition, and customized sales strategies [7] - A long-term mechanism for asset revitalization has been established, involving regular reporting and leadership oversight to ensure project progress [7]

Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds mostly increased, with an overall change range of 0 BP to 8 BP during the period from May 5 to May 11 [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased on a month-on-month basis, with corporate bonds showing zero issuance while other varieties saw an increase in issuance amounts [2] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased month-on-month, with corporate bonds showing negative net financing while other varieties showed positive net financing [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction amount of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with all varieties seeing an increase in transaction amounts [2] - The yield of credit bonds decreased across the board, with a relatively larger decline in the short end [2] - The credit spread showed differentiation among various types of bonds, with short-term spreads widening and medium to long-term spreads narrowing overall [2] - The report suggests that despite market fluctuations, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and future yields are expected to enter a downward channel [2] Industry Research - Metals - The steel industry is under significant profit pressure, with a projected year-on-year decline of 131.74% in net profit for 2024, while Q1 2025 shows a substantial recovery with a year-on-year increase of 549.88% [5] - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see a year-on-year net profit growth of 1.77% in 2024, with a significant increase of 68.55% in Q1 2025 [6] - The precious metals sector performed well, with a year-on-year net profit increase of 40.68% in 2024 and 44.88% in Q1 2025, supported by geopolitical factors and central bank gold purchases [6][11] - The report highlights the strategic value reassessment of medium and heavy rare earths due to export control policies, leading to price increases in the overseas market [8][11] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on high-quality state-owned enterprises and bonds with strong guarantees, as well as considering opportunities in undervalued real estate bonds [3][5] Industry Research - Light Industry & Textiles - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the light industry gaining 3.02% and textiles gaining 3.47% during the period from May 5 to May 9 [12][13] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, with a significant increase in contract liabilities and cash flow from operating activities in Q1 2025 [14] - The easing of US-China tariff risks is expected to benefit export-oriented companies, improving export data and capacity utilization [13][14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [7][51] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in Q2 is experiencing a downturn, with a focus on whether unexpected policies will be introduced to stabilize the market [2] - In 2025, under the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing," it is expected that the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will increase, and urban village renovations will accelerate [3][51] - The report highlights that high-quality land reserves and strong product capabilities in leading cities will provide alpha attributes for real estate companies [3][51] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 15th week, the real estate sector index outperformed both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of 1.2% compared to the CSI 300 index [11] - The CSI 300 index closed at 3750.52 with a weekly decline of 2.9%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2190.21 with a weekly decline of 1.7% [11][15] Sales Data - In the 15th week, new home sales in 44 major cities were 14,000 units, a decrease of 28.8% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities increased by 15.3% to 21,000 units [16] - Inventory in 18 major cities increased to 842,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 23.7 months, up by 0.7 months from the previous week [23] Policy Developments - Local policies include Guangzhou's "land acquisition immediately followed by construction" model and adjustments to housing provident fund regulations in various cities [13][21] - The report notes that the issuance of 9.415 billion yuan in special bonds for land reserves in Hunan is aimed at stimulating the market [21] Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Poly Developments (600048, Buy) and China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy) [3][51] - Companies to watch include China Resources Land (01109, Not Rated) and Yuexiu Property (00123, Not Rated) [3][51] Market Trends - The report indicates that the market recovery momentum in 2025 is stronger than in 2024 but weaker than in 2023, with ongoing downward pressure on new home sales [51] - The report emphasizes that the future trajectory of the real estate market will largely depend on the interplay between export performance and economic policies [51]