Core Insights - The national real estate market is showing signs of stabilization as the inventory of unsold residential properties has decreased for eight consecutive months, indicating a potential recovery from the ongoing adjustment phase [1][3] - The reduction in unsold housing inventory is attributed to effective policies aimed at controlling new supply and optimizing existing stock, which has improved market confidence and supply-demand dynamics [1][3] Group 1: Inventory and Sales Data - As of the end of October, the total unsold residential property area in China was 75,606 million square meters, a decrease of 3.22 million square meters from the end of September, with residential inventory down by 2.92 million square meters [1] - From January to October, the year-on-year decline in new residential property sales area and sales revenue has narrowed significantly by 9 percentage points and 11.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to the same period last year [3] Group 2: Financial Health of Real Estate Companies - The financial situation of real estate companies has improved, with the decline in funds available to developers narrowing by 9.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year and by 7.3 percentage points compared to the entire previous year [3] - The expansion of the "white list" projects has positively influenced the financing environment for real estate companies, contributing to the reduction in sales decline and improved inventory management [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite positive signals, some indicators remain at low levels, reflecting the complexity of the real estate market's transition, which is currently in a period of adjustment between old and new models [3] - The focus of short-term policies will be on stabilizing the market, while long-term strategies will aim to establish a new development model, with expectations for improved supply in key cities to support market stabilization [3]

需要指出的是，当前房地产市场还处在新旧模式转换时期，转型调整需要一定时间，在这个过程中，部 分指标会出现波动，对此要客观看待。下阶段，要按照党中央、国务院决策部署，落实好中央城市工作 会议精神，积极构建房地产发展新模式，坚持长短结合、标本兼治，持续用力推动房地产市场高质量发 展。 编辑丨瑜见 第二，商品房去库存持续推进。随着控增量、优存量等房地产政策措施持续发挥作用，今年以来房地产 去库存稳步推进，10月末全国商品房待售面积75606万平方米，比9月末减少322万平方米，今年以来 连续八个月减少。 第三，房企资金有所改善。在"白名单"项目扩围增效等积极因素带动下，房地产开发企业到位资金降 幅收窄，1-10月房企到位资金同比降幅比去年同期和去年全年分别收窄9.5和7.3个百分点。 11月14日，国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在国新办新闻发布会 上表示，房地产一直是大家比较关注的领域。今年以来，各地区各部门加快出台实施各项支持性政策， 积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，推动房地产市场止跌回稳。从统计数据来看，房地产市场虽有所波 动，但政策成效仍在继续显现。 第一，商品房销售降幅收窄。1- ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the **U.S. and Chinese markets**, highlighting the volatility in the U.S. due to government shutdowns, tariff legality concerns, and AI investment bubble worries, while the Chinese market remains relatively stable [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Market Volatility**: The U.S. market is experiencing increased volatility due to several factors, including government shutdowns and concerns over the legality of tariffs, which are expected to have limited actual impact [1][4][5]. - **AI Investment**: AI investments are currently in a pilot application phase, with full adoption expected by 2026. The potential for AI to increase profits for S&P 500 companies by 20% is noted, but hardware depreciation poses a risk [1][7][10]. - **Employment Impact of AI**: AI is projected to affect approximately 90% of jobs, particularly those with high automation and low creativity. Countries need to enhance social security systems to mitigate the impact on displaced workers [1][8]. - **U.S.-China Relations**: A recent agreement between the U.S. and China has delayed the implementation of certain key measures, indicating mutual dependence in technology resources and suggesting that disputes may become a new norm [1][13]. - **China's Rare Earth Strategy**: China controls over 85% of global rare earth mining and 90% of refining capacity, using this as a long-term strategy to counteract Western technological restrictions [1][14]. - **Chinese Real Estate Market**: The Chinese real estate market is under pressure, with top developers experiencing over a 40% decline in sales year-on-year. The market is expected to shift towards rental housing operations over the next decade, with significant potential for the REITs market [1][19][21]. Additional Important Insights - **Public REITs Development**: As of September 2025, there are 75 public REITs in China with a total market value of approximately 220 billion RMB, indicating significant growth potential compared to developed markets [1][22]. - **Challenges for Institutional Investors**: Institutional investors face challenges in participating in public REITs due to low trading volumes. It is suggested that they engage with listed developers to capitalize on this expanding theme [1][23]. - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The GDP target for the upcoming year is likely set at around 5%, with a focus on maintaining confidence despite potential fiscal challenges. The allocation of resources is expected to favor technology sectors over consumer spending [1][24]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current market dynamics, investment opportunities, and potential risks.

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" showing almost no activity compared to previous years, indicating a shift in market sentiment and expectations [2][3]. Market Conditions - The recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival saw the worst real estate performance in nearly a decade, with developers resorting to various promotions like discounted prices and incentives, but consumer interest remains low [2][3]. - Sales of new homes have seen slight improvements due to aggressive promotions, but the overall market conditions remain poor, with many sales centers also selling second-hand homes [3][4]. Policy Shifts - The focus of government policies has shifted from stimulating transactions to stabilizing expectations and preventing risks, leading to a fundamental change in public perception of real estate [3][4]. - The housing market is now characterized by a high vacancy rate and a slowing economy, which has intensified expectations of falling property prices [5][6]. Housing Demand and Supply - The supply of existing homes has surged, with research indicating that the current stock of housing meets demand, and future housing demand may decrease by 30% over the next decade [4][5]. - The urban housing vacancy rate has reached 16.2%, equating to approximately 390 million urban housing units [4]. Price Trends - In August, the average price of second-hand homes in major cities fell, with first-tier cities experiencing a decline of around 1.0% month-on-month [5][6]. - The continuous decline in property prices has solidified a wait-and-see attitude among potential buyers, with many fearing further depreciation [8][9]. Developer Challenges - Developers are facing significant financial pressures, with companies like Vanke reporting substantial short-term debt that exceeds their cash reserves, raising concerns about their ability to deliver homes [10]. - The risk of delivery failures has become a major concern for buyers, overshadowing price considerations [10]. Market Outlook - Despite recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market, consumer confidence remains low, with many waiting for even lower prices before making purchases [8][10]. - The current market conditions reflect a transition from speculative buying to a more cautious approach, emphasizing the need for patience as the market seeks a new equilibrium [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting the challenges in the real estate market, yet it remains a leader in sales among national real estate companies [1][2] Company Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Poly Developments achieved operating revenue of 173.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.95% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.93 billion yuan, down 75.31% year-on-year [1] - As of the end of September, total assets amounted to 1,287.39 billion yuan, with net assets attributable to shareholders at 197.42 billion yuan [1] - The company recorded a sales amount of 201.73 billion yuan, leading the national real estate sector [1] Market Position and Strategy - Poly Developments has demonstrated strong market adaptability, achieving a sales recovery of 194.1 billion yuan with a recovery rate of 96% [2] - The cash balance at the end of the period was 122.65 billion yuan, and the asset-liability ratio was 73.27%, down 1.08 percentage points from the previous year [2] - The company focuses on core cities with strong economic vitality and stable population inflow, which supports housing demand [1] - Poly Developments is enhancing product quality to meet diverse consumer needs, contributing to its sales performance [1] Industry Trends - The real estate market is transitioning from "high turnover, high leverage" to "high quality, low leverage," indicating a shift towards stock optimization and structural upgrades [2] - Recent government policies aim to stabilize the real estate market and promote urban renewal, which may benefit companies like Poly Developments [1][2] - The industry is moving towards higher quality and more diversified development, with Poly Developments actively engaging in urban renewal and rental market initiatives [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market in 2025 is undergoing significant transformation, marked by two major trends reshaping the industry landscape [1] Group 1: Changes in Supply and Demand - The shift in supply and demand dynamics is evident, with a transition from reckless expansion to revitalizing existing land resources. The government has mandated a halt on new land supply in cities with a housing absorption cycle exceeding 36 months, and a focus on utilizing existing land in cities with cycles between 18 to 36 months [3] - National residential land supply is projected to decrease by 20% year-on-year in 2025, with second-tier cities experiencing a substantial 30% drop. For instance, Guangdong Province has issued nearly 200 billion yuan in special bonds for the acquisition of idle land, with over 4,600 parcels of idle land set to be revitalized nationwide [3] Group 2: Policy Innovations - Guangzhou's "special loan plus housing ticket resettlement" policy is a highlight, allowing the government to purchase existing homes as resettlement housing, effectively reducing market inventory and providing diverse options for displaced residents [4] - Shenzhen's policy allows for the conversion of affordable housing in urban renewal projects into commercial housing, ensuring the total supply of affordable homes while mitigating risks for developers [4] Group 3: Shift in Business Focus for Real Estate Companies - Real estate companies are shifting their focus from quantity to service quality, moving away from aggressive land acquisition that led to high debt levels. The government is encouraging self-regulation within the industry, with troubled firms undergoing debt restructuring or judicial reorganization [6] - Several large real estate companies have successfully reduced leverage through debt-to-equity swaps and asset sales, leading to a decrease in the number of new distressed firms and alleviating concerns over unfinished projects [6] - Developers are now prioritizing the enhancement of housing quality and service levels, with a competitive focus on comfort and smart home features rather than just construction speed and volume [6] Group 4: Evolving Consumer Behavior - The relaxation of purchase restrictions is not solely aimed at stimulating demand; it is designed to alleviate the burden on genuine homebuyers. For example, in Shenzhen, restrictions have been eased in non-core areas while remaining strict in core regions [7] - Policies targeting first-time and second-home buyers, such as increasing loan limits for multi-child families and reducing down payment ratios, are aimed at meeting the needs of genuine buyers rather than attracting speculators [7] - Current homebuyers are increasingly focused on rental yield, with rental returns in many first- and second-tier cities rising to around 2%, making them more attractive than purchasing government bonds. The price-to-income ratio is also gradually decreasing, aligning with international standards, indicating a more rational mindset among buyers [7] Group 5: Overall Market Direction - Both major trends indicate a shift in the real estate market from relying on price appreciation for profit to focusing on service and quality. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has noted that urbanization has entered a stable development phase, necessitating a transition in the real estate sector towards quality improvement of existing stock [7]

Core Insights - The real estate market is transitioning from a "buying frenzy" to a "selective buying" phase, reflecting a significant change in consumer sentiment and market dynamics [7][8] Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, new residential prices in 300 cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, while second-hand residential prices fell by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, indicating a gentle downward trend in overall housing prices [7] - The average transaction cycle for residential properties in key cities extended to 93 days in the first half of 2025, compared to 42 days in 2020 and 76 days in 2022, allowing buyers more time for consideration [7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The housing supply has become more abundant, with a total inventory of approximately 680 million square meters as of June 2025, leading to a de-stocking cycle of about 17 months, exceeding the reasonable level of 12 months [9] - The average per capita housing area reached 41.3 square meters by the end of 2024, a 37.7% increase from 30 square meters in 2010, indicating that housing supply is now sufficient to meet basic residential needs [9] Changing Buyer Attitudes - The concept of "housing for living, not for speculation" has gained traction, with 71.3% of respondents in a 2025 survey believing that homes are primarily for living, up from 58.6% in 2020 [10] - The percentage of people expecting continuous price increases dropped from 47.5% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2025, reflecting a more cautious outlook among buyers [10] Population Trends - China's population growth has slowed, with a natural growth rate of -1.73‰ in 2024, leading to a deceleration in housing demand [11] - There is a noticeable shift in population movement, with some first-tier cities experiencing a slowdown in net inflow, while second and third-tier cities are attracting more residents [11][12] Financial Environment - Real estate financing policies are returning to normal, with a 3.2% growth in real estate loan balances in the first half of 2025, significantly lower than the average growth of 8.5% for all loans [13] - Despite a decrease in mortgage rates, the impact on stimulating demand has been limited due to declining expectations for future returns [13] Strategic Recommendations for Buyers - First-time buyers should consider entering the market now, as stable prices and ample choices reduce financial pressure [14] - Existing homeowners looking to upgrade can take their time to compare options and consider strategies like "selling before buying" to mitigate financial risks [14] - Investors should be cautious and evaluate potential returns carefully, as relying solely on price appreciation is becoming more challenging [14] Conclusion - The shift from a "buying frenzy" to a "selective buying" market reflects a maturation of the real estate sector, providing more options and bargaining power for buyers [19] - The focus should be on finding suitable homes for living rather than speculative investments, emphasizing the importance of long-term residential needs over short-term price fluctuations [19]

Group 1: National Housing and Loan Approvals - The total loan approval amount for national whitelist projects has exceeded 7 trillion yuan, with over 7.5 million housing units that were sold but difficult to deliver now completed, ensuring the legal rights of homebuyers are protected [1] - In the past five years, approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties have been sold, and over 11 million units of various types of affordable housing have been constructed, benefiting more than 30 million people [1] Group 2: Land Sales and Market Activity - In Wuxi, nine residential land parcels were successfully auctioned for a total starting price of approximately 6.15 billion yuan, with all parcels sold at the starting price, indicating a relatively calm land market [2] - Guangzhou has announced 50 plots of state-owned land for sale with a total starting price exceeding 10 billion yuan, reflecting a certain level of activity in the Guangzhou land market and confidence from some real estate companies [3] Group 3: Corporate Financing and Debt Restructuring - Dalian Wanda Group has secured a credit facility of 150 million USD to refinance existing debts, which is expected to optimize its debt structure and alleviate liquidity pressure [4] - Country Garden has made progress in restructuring nine domestic bonds, with eight bondholder meetings approving the restructuring plan, involving a total balance of approximately 13.42 billion yuan, which may stabilize market confidence in the real estate sector [5]

Core Insights - The future of the real estate market in China is uncertain, with discussions around whether property values will rise or fall by 2030, influenced by various factors such as population changes and economic conditions [1][3] Group 1: Population Changes - Population dynamics are fundamental to housing demand, with a projected birth rate of 7.2‰ and a natural population growth rate of -1.3‰ by 2025, indicating a shift towards an aging society [1][3] - By 2030, over 20% of the population will be aged 65 and above, impacting housing demand, particularly for improved and investment properties [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The real estate market is transitioning from a growth phase to a stock phase, with new housing supply decreasing and second-hand transactions becoming mainstream [3] - The concept that "houses are for living, not for speculation" is gaining traction, suggesting that future price trends will align more closely with income growth [3] Group 3: City Differentiation - There will be significant differentiation among cities, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities likely to see stable prices, while third and fourth-tier cities may experience substantial price declines, potentially up to 30% [3][4] Group 4: Location and Quality - Location will increasingly dictate property value, with core areas maintaining value due to scarcity and convenience, while peripheral areas face downward pressure [4] - Housing quality will become a key determinant of value, with over 65% of buyers willing to pay more for high-quality property services, a 15 percentage point increase since 2020 [6] Group 5: Financial Policies - Housing finance policies are crucial, with mortgage rates declining to an average of 3.85% in September 2025, nearly 1 percentage point lower than in 2020, which may stabilize property prices [6] Group 6: Price Predictions - In first-tier and strong second-tier cities, a property currently valued at 1.2 million may appreciate to 1.4-1.6 million by 2030, reflecting a 15-30% increase [6][7] - In general areas of second-tier cities and some developing third-tier cities, values may stabilize around 1.1-1.3 million, with fluctuations not exceeding 10% [7] - In struggling third and fourth-tier cities, values could drop to 800,000-1 million, indicating a potential 20-30% depreciation [7] Group 7: Market Adaptation Strategies - Buyers should shift their investment mindset to prioritize living needs over speculative gains, focusing on quality and location when purchasing properties [9] - Diversifying asset allocation beyond real estate is recommended to mitigate risks and enhance overall asset resilience [9] - A rational approach to price fluctuations is essential, with decisions based on personal needs and long-term planning rather than short-term market trends [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company has experienced management changes and financial challenges but is focusing on stabilizing operations and seeking new growth opportunities in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Management Changes - The company received a notification from Hongxing Meikailong Holdings regarding the lifting of detention measures against its director and general manager, Che Jianxing, by the Yunnan Provincial Supervisory Committee [1]. - Che Jianxing applied for resignation from the general manager position for personal reasons but will continue to serve as an executive director and member of the board's strategic and investment committee [1]. - The company appointed Shi Yaofeng, an executive director and vice general manager, as the new general manager [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the company operated 76 self-owned malls with an average occupancy rate of 84.2%, a 1.2% increase from the end of the previous year [2]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 3.34 billion yuan, a 21% year-on-year decline, primarily due to store closures and rental discounts [2]. - The company reported a net loss of 1.9 billion yuan, mainly due to a 2.1 billion yuan loss from changes in the fair value of investment properties [2]. - Excluding non-recurring losses, the operating profit for the first half of 2025 was 210 million yuan, indicating a positive trend compared to the previous periods [2]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company aims to leverage ongoing consumer promotion policies and the evolving real estate market to reshape its strategy and seize new growth opportunities [2]. - The chairman stated that despite recent internal and external changes, the company's management remains stable, and a new management team is being formed to enhance operational strategies [3]. Group 4: Market Position - The company's stock price has remained stable, with a market capitalization of approximately 12.8 billion yuan as of September 22 [4].