Core Insights - The real estate development investment in China from January to October reached 73,563 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% [2][11] - Residential investment accounted for 56,595 billion yuan, down 13.8% compared to the previous year [2][11] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 71,982 million square meters, reflecting a decline of 6.8% year-on-year [5][13] Real Estate Development Investment - Total real estate development investment was 73,563 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 14.7% [2][11] - Residential investment was 56,595 billion yuan, down 13.8% [2][11] - Investment in office buildings decreased by 20.2% to 2,775 billion yuan [11] Construction Activity - The total construction area for real estate development was 652,939 million square meters, a decrease of 9.4% year-on-year [4][11] - New construction area was 49,061 million square meters, down 19.8% [4][11] - The completion area was 34,861 million square meters, reflecting a decline of 16.9% [4][11] Sales Performance - Newly built commercial housing sales amounted to 69,017 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6% year-on-year [5][11] - The sales area for residential properties was 60,272 million square meters, down 7.0% [5][11] - The sales area for office buildings decreased by 7.2% to 1,744 million square meters [11] Inventory Situation - The inventory of commercial housing at the end of October was 75,606 million square meters, a reduction of 322 million square meters from September [5][11] - The inventory of residential properties decreased by 292 million square meters [5][11] Funding Situation - The total funds available for real estate development enterprises was 78,853 billion yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year [7][11] - Domestic loans amounted to 12,160 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8% [7][11] - Personal mortgage loans fell by 12.8% to 10,834 billion yuan [7][11] Regional Performance - Eastern region investment was 43,030 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year [12] - Central region investment decreased by 12.9% to 14,638 billion yuan [12] - Western region investment saw a decline of 8.2% to 14,300 billion yuan [12]

统计局： 中国1-10月新建商品房销售面积71982万平方米，同比下降6.8%（降幅较1-9月扩大1.3个百分点），新建商品房销售额69017亿元，下降9.4%（降幅扩大1.5个百分点）。全国房地产开发投资73563亿元，同比下降14.7%（降幅扩大0.8个百分点）； 房地产开发企业到位资金78853亿元，同比下降9.7%（降幅扩大1.3个百分点）。房地产开发景气指数为92.43。 ...

Group 1 - From January to October, the total construction area of real estate development enterprises reached 652.939 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%. The residential construction area was 455.253 million square meters, down 9.7% [2] - The new construction area for buildings was 49.061 million square meters, a decline of 19.8%, with residential new construction area at 35.952 million square meters, down 19.3% [2] - The completion area for buildings was 34.861 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9%, while the residential completion area was 24.866 million square meters, down 18.9% [2] Group 2 - In the same period, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 71.982 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, with residential sales area down 7.0% [2] - The sales revenue of newly built commercial housing reached 690.17 billion yuan, a decline of 9.6%, with residential sales revenue decreasing by 9.4% [2] Group 3 - By the end of October, the unsold area of commercial housing was 75.606 million square meters, a reduction of 3.22 million square meters compared to the end of September, with residential unsold area decreasing by 2.92 million square meters [5] - From January to October, the total funds available for real estate development enterprises amounted to 788.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [5] - Domestic loans accounted for 121.6 billion yuan, down 1.8%, while foreign investment utilization was 1.9 billion yuan, down 37.5% [5] Group 4 - The real estate development prosperity index, known as the "National Housing Prosperity Index," stood at 92.43 in October [6]

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to October, national real estate development investment reached 73,563 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 14.7% [1] - Residential investment amounted to 56,595 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 13.8% [1] Group 1 - National real estate development investment for the first ten months of the year is 73,563 billion yuan [1] - Year-on-year decline in real estate investment is 14.7% [1] - Residential investment totals 56,595 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The decline in residential investment is 13.8% year-on-year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 GDP growth target for China is set at around 5%, which is deemed necessary and feasible to stabilize investor confidence in Chinese assets and capital markets [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Huang Wentao, indicated that China's GDP growth is expected to reach around 5% next year due to policy support [1]. - The average GDP growth rate required from 2020 to 2035 to achieve the goal of reaching the per capita GDP of a moderately developed country by 2035 is approximately 4.73% [1]. - The average GDP growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is above 5%, meeting the stage requirements [1]. Group 2: Export and External Demand - Huang noted that external demand remains resilient, with China's export performance in 2025 exceeding expectations, contributing over 30% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [2]. - If the trade agreements are effectively executed and non-U.S. economies continue to expand, the export growth rate in 2026 is expected to exceed expectations [3]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Outlook - The negative impact of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to diminish, with a projected slight narrowing of the decline in real estate development investment and new housing sales in 2026 [3]. - The decline in new housing sales is anticipated to be within 5%, reducing the negative drag on the economy [3]. Group 4: Policy Support and Consumer Recovery - There is ample room for policy support, with fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies expected to work in tandem in 2026 [3]. - The implementation of "two重" and "two新" policies is expected to continue, with an increase in support for service consumption and the expansion of trade-in policies for consumer goods [3]. - If fiscal policies align with consumer recovery efforts, consumption is projected to improve from its current low state [3].

Economic Outlook - The economic confidence index for November 2025 is reported at 50.3, remaining stable compared to the previous month, indicating a steady economic outlook with a target growth rate of 5% for the year [1][4][8] - Economists predict that the external environment will remain complex and variable, emphasizing the need for domestic economic focus on restoring internal demand [1][7] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October is forecasted to be -0.1%, showing a slight recovery from the previous month's -0.3% [2][9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be -2.2%, slightly better than the previous month's -2.3% [2][9] Retail and Consumption - The year-on-year growth rate for social retail sales in October is predicted to be 2.7%, down from 3% in the previous month [2][10] - Factors affecting retail growth include a decline in automotive sales and a slowdown in the real estate market, despite positive trends in tourism and online consumption [11][10] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for October is expected to grow by 5.7%, a decrease from the previous month's 6.5% [2][12] - High-frequency data indicates strong production activity, particularly in steel and chemical sectors, suggesting continued robust industrial performance [12] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to be -0.8%, slightly lower than the previous month's -0.5% [2][13] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to receive a boost from new fiscal policies, while real estate investment continues to face challenges [14][15] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for October is forecasted to be $94.26 billion, an increase from the previous month's $90.45 billion [2][16][18] - Export growth is expected to be 2.6%, while import growth is projected at 3.1%, both lower than previous figures [18] Financial Indicators - New loans for October are expected to drop to 454.91 billion yuan from 1.29 trillion yuan in September [2][19] - The total social financing amount is predicted to be 1.3 trillion yuan, down from 3.53 trillion yuan in September [20] Monetary Policy - The M2 money supply growth rate is forecasted to be 8.2%, slightly lower than the previous month's 8.4% [21] - Economists expect little change in the LPR and reserve requirement ratios in the near term, with potential for slight adjustments to stimulate domestic demand [22] Currency and Foreign Reserves - The RMB to USD exchange rate is expected to stabilize at 7.1 by the end of November [3][23] - Foreign exchange reserves are projected to remain steady at approximately $333.71 billion [24] Policy Directions - Macroeconomic policies are expected to focus on enhancing infrastructure and social welfare, with an emphasis on "investment in people" to drive sustainable economic growth [26][27][29] - The government aims to improve residents' income and consumption capacity, which is crucial for stimulating domestic demand [31][32]

Core Insights - The economic growth of the four southwestern provinces (Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing) has significantly declined in recent years, with their GDP growth rates falling below the national average [1][2][3][4] Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, the GDP figures for the four provinces were as follows: Yunnan at 23,518.47 billion, Guizhou at 17,352.04 billion, Sichuan at 49,322.2 billion, and Chongqing at 24,449.36 billion, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 4.9%, 5.5%, and 5.3% [1][2] - Guizhou's GDP growth has dropped below the national average, with a forecasted growth of 5.3% for 2024, which is only 0.3 percentage points higher than the national average [2][4] - Yunnan's growth has also declined, with a forecast of only 3.3% for 2024, placing it at the bottom of the national growth rankings [2][3] Investment Trends - Investment growth has been a significant factor in the economic slowdown of the southwestern provinces, with a notable decline in fixed asset investment [4][5] - Historical data shows that Guizhou's fixed asset investment growth has decreased from 28.0% in 2013 to negative growth in recent years, indicating a shift from being a leader to one of the provinces with negative growth [4] - Yunnan's fixed asset investment has also suffered, with declines of 10.6% and 7.7% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, largely due to a downturn in real estate development investment [4][5] Sector Performance - The traditional pillar industries in the region, such as alcohol, coal, electricity, and tobacco, are facing challenges, particularly in Guizhou, where the liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments [5] - In the first three quarters, Guizhou's coal mining and washing industry grew by 8.0%, while the electricity and heat production sector grew by 4.1% [5] - Yunnan's traditional industries are also experiencing low growth rates, with the tobacco industry increasing by only 1.0% and the electricity sector by 1.8%, although the non-ferrous metals industry saw a significant increase of 14.6% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 20, a series of important economic data were released. China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters. Although there are favorable conditions to achieve the annual target, there are also short - board issues such as slowdown in consumer spending growth, continued decline in real estate prices and volume, and further expansion of the decline in fixed - asset investment. It is expected that the possibility of introducing specific stimulus policies in 2025 is relatively small [6]. - For pure benzene, the fundamental drive is still downward, but the valuation is low. Short - term sanctions affect supply in central China, but overall supply is rising. Port inventories are decreasing smoothly in October, but the actual inventory is moderately high. The downstream demand for styrene is in a negative feedback channel, and short - term short positions should pay attention to taking profits [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Data Analysis - GDP: China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters [6]. - Consumption: In September, China's social consumer goods retail sales grew 3% year - on - year, and the catering revenue of above - quota units declined 1.6%. The quarterly growth rate of residents' consumption expenditure slowed down significantly [6]. - Industry: In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 6.5% year - on - year, with better growth in equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing [6]. - Investment: From January to September, China's national fixed - asset investment decreased 0.5% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased 13.9% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold: Continues to hit new highs, with a trend strength of 1 [11][17]. - Silver: The spot contradiction is alleviated, and the price rises and then falls, with a trend strength of - 1 [11][17]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Copper: The reduction in warehouse receipts and inventory supports the price, with a trend strength of 1 [11][21]. - Zinc: Shows a slight rebound, with a trend strength of 0 [11][24]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory supports the price, with a trend strength of 0 [11][26]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, with a trend strength of 0 [11][31]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina continues to be in surplus, with a trend strength of - 1. Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [11][33]. 3.2.3 Energy Metals - Nickel: Narrowly fluctuates in the short - term, and contradictions are still accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [11][36]. - Stainless steel: There is no upward driving force in supply and demand, and cost limits the downward space, with a trend strength of 0 [11][36]. - Carbonate lithium: The spot is in short supply, and the strong - side oscillation is expected to continue, with a trend strength of 1 [11][40]. 3.2.4 Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts are removed in the short - term, with a trend strength of 1 [11][44]. - Polysilicon: Market sentiment declines, with a trend strength of 0 [11][44]. 3.2.5 Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][48]. - Rebar: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][54]. - Hot - rolled coil: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][54]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost provides bottom support, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][59]. - Silicomanganese: Cost provides bottom support, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][59]. 3.2.6 Energy Chemicals - Coke: Expectations are volatile, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][63]. - Coking coal: Expectations are volatile, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][63]. 3.2.7 Others - Logs: Fluctuate repeatedly [14][64]. - Pure benzene: Fluctuates mainly in the short - term [14][63].

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] - The GDP growth rates for the first three quarters were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3 [3] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in September increased by 6.2% year-on-year [5] - The industrial capacity utilization rate for large-scale enterprises in Q3 was 74.6%, up by 0.6 percentage points from Q2 [12] Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods for the first three quarters amounted to 36,587 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [6] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first three quarters was 874.585 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.5% [6] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing in the first three quarters was 65.85 million square meters, down by 5.5% year-on-year [11] Trade and Prices - The total import and export value for the first three quarters was 3,360.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first three quarters decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the first three quarters fell by 2.8% year-on-year [8] Employment and Income - The average urban survey unemployment rate for the first three quarters was 5.2% [9] - The per capita disposable income for residents in the first three quarters was 32,590 yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.1% [12] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment in the first three quarters was 67,706 billion yuan, down by 13.9% year-on-year [10][11] - In September, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline, with the year-on-year decline narrowing [12] Economic Outlook - The economic structure remains stable, with ongoing momentum for growth and resilience, indicating a solid foundation for sustained healthy development [13] - Future efforts will focus on implementing counter-cyclical adjustments, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing market vitality to boost growth expectations [13]

Real Estate Development Investment Completion - In the first nine months, national real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [2][4] - Residential investment amounted to 52,046 billion yuan, down 12.9% [2][4] Construction Area and New Starts - The total construction area for real estate development was 648,580 million square meters, a decline of 9.4% year-on-year [4] - New construction area was 45,399 million square meters, down 18.9%, with residential new starts at 33,273 million square meters, decreasing by 18.3% [4] Sales and Inventory of New Commercial Housing - New commercial housing sales area was 65,835 million square meters, a decrease of 5.5%, with residential sales area down 5.6% [5] - The sales revenue for new commercial housing was 63,040 billion yuan, down 7.9%, with residential sales revenue decreasing by 7.6% [5] Inventory Situation - As of the end of September, the inventory of commercial housing was 75,928 million square meters, a reduction of 241 million square meters from the end of August [7] Funding Situation for Real Estate Development Enterprises - In the first nine months, the funds available to real estate development enterprises totaled 72,299 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% [8] - Domestic loans amounted to 11,294 billion yuan, down 1.4%, while foreign investment decreased by 37.3% to 18 million yuan [8] Real Estate Development Prosperity Index - The real estate development prosperity index was recorded at 92.78 in September [10]