东方金诚宏观研究 东方金诚宏观研究 一季度财政收入表现偏弱，财政支出力度大幅提升 —— 2025 年 3 月财政数据点评 分析师：瞿瑞 冯琳 事件：财政部公布数据显示，2025 年 3 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.3%， 1-2 月为下降 1.6%；3 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 5.7%，1-2 月为增长 3.4%；1-3 月全国政府性基金收入累计同比下降 11.0%，1-2 月为下降 10.7%；1-3 月全国政府性基金 支出累计同比增长 11.1%，1-2 月为增长 1.2%。 主要观点：尽管 3 月当月财政收入增速有所改善，但一季度财政收入端整体表现仍偏 弱，其中，一般公共预算收入累计同比下降 1.1%，低于去年全年累计增速；一季度政府性 基金收入同比下降 11.0%，主要受国有土地出让金收入同比降幅扩大拖累，背后是土地市 场持续低迷。从支出端来看，一季度广义财政支出累计同比增长 10.1%，其中，一般公共 预算支出同比增长 4.2%，主要源于今年年初政府债券发行提速，充实了可用财政资金。同 时，今年一季度新增专项债发行量同比高增，加之土地出让收入安排的支出同比降幅收窄， 拉动政府性基金 ...

Revenue Performance - In January-February 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, slightly below the annual revenue budget target by 0.1%[5] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[5] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, but this was a significant drop of 83 percentage points from the previous month[5] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid expenditure pace[5] - Social welfare and employment expenditures rose by 5.4%, reflecting a focus on social security and health spending[5] - Government fund expenditure increased by 1.2% year-on-year, with central government fund expenditure soaring by 74.2%, contrasting with a mere 0.6% increase at the local level[5] Future Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to focus on increasing the deficit ratio and expenditure intensity, with plans for special bond issuance to accelerate spending[5] - There is an emphasis on supporting domestic demand and consumption, particularly in social security and employment sectors[5] - The central government has reserved sufficient tools and policy space to potentially introduce incremental policies throughout the year based on changing internal and external conditions[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 2025 fiscal budget proposal, highlighting a shift towards a more proactive fiscal policy with an emphasis on flexibility in deficit targets and a focus on key areas such as technology, security, and public welfare [1][2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The 2025 fiscal budget sets a deficit rate of "around 4%", allowing for potential adjustments mid-year, which is a departure from the rigid numerical targets used in previous years [1]. - The budget reflects a more pragmatic approach to nominal GDP growth estimates, revising the implicit nominal GDP growth rate down from 7.4% in 2024 to 4.9% in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Spending Focus - The fiscal spending for 2025 will increasingly target technology, security, and public welfare, with notable increases in allocations for education, diplomacy, national defense, and scientific research [2]. - In contrast, spending related to infrastructure, rural community development, and transportation is expected to decrease in importance [2]. Group 3: Revenue Adjustments - The budget anticipates a significant reduction in non-tax revenue, with a projected year-on-year decline of 14.2%, reflecting a strategy to lessen reliance on unsustainable revenue sources [3]. - Tax revenue expectations remain high, with positive growth targets set for most tax categories, excluding specific taxes like the tonnage tax on ships and vehicle purchase tax [3]. Group 4: Debt Issuance - The central government's bond issuance is projected to rise, with central government bonds accounting for 56.2% of total government bond issuance, marking a shift where central debt issuance surpasses local [5]. - This indicates a greater responsibility for counter-cyclical fiscal adjustments being placed on the central government [5]. Group 5: Challenges in Fund Revenue - The budget acknowledges potential difficulties in meeting government fund revenue targets due to the ongoing challenges in the real estate market and declining land use rights revenue [6].