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20260121申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260121
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper: The copper price closed 1.28% lower overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it generally continued to grow at a high rate. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to supply disruptions in mines, the global copper supply - demand outlook has shifted to a deficit. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the copper price may experience a phased correction. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: The zinc price closed 1.0% lower overnight. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has declined, and the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, while smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious. After the release of the overall optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market, the zinc price may experience a phased correction. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Data - **Copper**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 100,940 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 155 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 12,754 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is 101.84 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 147,425 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 3,850 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 23,880 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 160 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,108 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 12.62 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 485,000 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 3,000 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 24,365 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 5 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,173 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 43.57 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 105,050 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 1,475 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 141,360 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,740 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 17,614 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 200.23 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 285,708 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 24 tons [2]. - **Lead**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,165 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 140 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,029 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 46.32 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 203,500 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 2,850 tons [2]. - **Tin**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 399,000 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 5,810 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 49,412 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is - 92.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 6,440 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 505 tons [2].
20260120申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260120
Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The copper price rose 0.49% overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the copper price may experience a phased correction [2]. - The zinc price fell 0.04% overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply was temporarily tight, while smelting output continued to grow. After the release of optimistic sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, the zinc price may experience a phased correction [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: Overnight price up 0.49%, domestic previous day's futures closing price 100,990 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 110 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 12,966 dollars/ton, LME spot premium 67.55 dollars/ton, LME inventory 143,575 tons with a daily increase of 2,450 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 24,025 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 150 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 3,159 dollars/ton, LME spot premium 15.60 dollars/ton, LME inventory 488,000 tons with a daily decrease of 2,000 tons [2]. - Zinc: Overnight price down 0.04%, domestic previous day's futures closing price 24,410 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 5 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 3,234 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 41.66 dollars/ton, LME inventory 106,525 tons with a daily decrease of 175 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 142,320 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 5,750 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 18,133 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 196.02 dollars/ton, LME inventory 285,732 tons with a daily increase of 450 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 17,125 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 135 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 2,061 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 47.13 dollars/ton, LME inventory 206,350 tons with a daily decrease of 5,050 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 389,500 yuan/ton, domestic basis 26,370 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price 49,258 dollars/ton, LME spot discount 108.01 dollars/ton, LME inventory 5,935 tons with a daily increase of 10 tons [2]. Demand - side Information - For copper and zinc, power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is decreasing, and the real - estate market remains weak. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment for zinc is slowing down, and the galvanized sheet inventory is at a high level [2].
20260116申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260116
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price in the night session first declined and then rose, closing up 0.05%. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has decreased month - on - month, it generally continues to grow at a high rate. The supply disruption of mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a shortage, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price in the night session closed up 0.14%. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metal Price Movements - Copper price in the night session closed up 0.05%, zinc price closed up 0.14% [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - For copper, concentrate supply is tight, smelting output has a high - growth trend, and power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak. Mine supply disruptions lead to a supply - demand gap expectation [2] - For zinc, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting output grows, galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth slows, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2] Market Data - **Domestic Futures and Basis**: Copper's domestic previous - day futures closing price is 102,200 yuan/ton, basis is - 120 yuan/ton; aluminum's is 24,155 yuan/ton and - 140 yuan/ton; zinc's is 25,050 yuan/ton and - 45 yuan/ton; nickel's is 145,400 yuan/ton and - 1,860 yuan/ton; lead's is 17,450 yuan/ton and - 140 yuan/ton; tin's is 423,780 yuan/ton and - 14,290 yuan/ton [2] - **LME Data**: Copper's previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 13,149 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) is 37.60 dollars/ton, and LME inventory is 141,625 tons with a daily change of 75 tons; aluminum's is 3,172 dollars/ton, 1.42 dollars/ton, 492,000 tons and - 2,000 tons; zinc's is 3,314 dollars/ton, - 27.62 dollars/ton, 106,725 tons and - 175 tons; nickel's is 18,590 dollars/ton, - 187.88 dollars/ton, 284,658 tons and 510 tons; lead's is 2,097 dollars/ton, - 43.58 dollars/ton, 215,200 tons and - 3,725 tons; tin's is 52,775 dollars/ton, - 114.50 dollars/ton, 5,930 tons and 0 tons [2]
20260113申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260113
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper price closed 0.46% lower overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although the smelting output has declined month - on - month, it generally continues to grow at a high rate. The copper supply - demand expectation has turned to a deficit due to mine supply disruptions, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price closed 0.66% higher overnight. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Price change: The copper price closed 0.46% lower overnight [2]. - Supply: The concentrate supply is tight, the smelting profit is at the break - even point, and the smelting output has declined month - on - month but still shows high growth. The mine supply disruption leads to an expected supply - demand deficit [2]. - Demand: Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak [2]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 103,430 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 35 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 13,172 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 64.31 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 138,975 tons, and the daily change was - 2,100 tons [2]. Zinc - Price change: The zinc price closed 0.66% higher overnight [2]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to grow [2]. - Demand: The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level [2]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,315 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 45 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,214 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 40.90 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 107,450 tons, and the daily change was - 550 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,350 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 120 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,185 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 10.40 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 497,825 tons, and the daily change was - 1,925 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 147,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 5,940 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 18,075 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 200.47 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 284,790 tons, and the daily change was 8,490 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,755 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 130 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,053 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 43.63 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 222,725 tons, and the daily change was - 3,725 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 357,800 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,290 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 48,200 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 87.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 5,415 tons, and the daily change was 10 tons [2].
20260109申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260109
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Night - time copper prices closed 0.98% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Zinc**: Night - time zinc prices closed 0.73% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but attention needs to be paid to the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metal Price and Market Data - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 100,970 yuan/ton with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 12,721 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 14.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 143,225 tons with a daily change of - 2,850 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,350 yuan/ton with a basis of - 110 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,091 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 17.33 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 501,750 tons with a daily change of - 2,500 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,315 yuan/ton with a basis of 145 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,131 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 45.20 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 105,500 tons with a daily change of - 275 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 147,400 yuan/ton with a basis of - 6,570 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 17,155 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 223.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 275,634 tons with a daily change of 20,088 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,755 yuan/ton with a basis of - 120 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,017 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 43.10 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 230,425 tons with a daily change of - 2,925 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 357,800 yuan/ton with a basis of 8,790 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 43,750 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 52.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 5,405 tons with a daily change of - 15 tons [2].
20260108申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260108
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Views - Copper: The copper price closed 1.93% lower overnight. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Supply disruptions have led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Zinc: The zinc price closed 0.82% lower overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment in the non - ferrous market as a whole needs to be monitored. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metal Market Data - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 103,170 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 12,900 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 14.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 146,075 tons with a daily increase of 3,525 tons [2] - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,350 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 190 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,075 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 17.33 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 504,250 tons with a daily decrease of 2,500 tons [2] - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,315 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 155 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,168 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 45.20 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 105,775 tons with a daily decrease of 75 tons [2] - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 147,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 6,630 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 17,895 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 223.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 255,546 tons with a daily increase of 192 tons [2] - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,755 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 105 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,060 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.10 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 233,350 tons with a daily decrease of 3,550 tons [2] - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 357,800 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 6,210 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 44,323 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 52.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 5,420 tons with a daily increase of 5 tons [2]
20260106申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260106
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price rose 1.28% overnight, hitting a new record high. The supply of concentrate remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall. The supply disruption of copper mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price rose overnight. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the supply of concentrate is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Price change: The copper price rose 1.28% overnight and hit a new record high [2]. - Supply situation: The supply of concentrate is tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall [2]. - Demand situation: Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - Market expectation: The supply disruption of copper mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 101,190 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 45 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 13,088 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 41.98 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 145,325 tons, and the daily change was - 2,100 tons [2]. Zinc - Price change: The zinc price rose overnight [2]. - Supply situation: The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the supply of concentrate is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow [2]. - Demand situation: The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - Market expectation: The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. - Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,800 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 165 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,208 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 36.30 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 106,325 tons, and the daily change was - 1,300 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,610 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 230 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,090 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 27.69 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 509,250 tons, and the daily change was - 2,500 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 133,750 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 5,920 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 17,290 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 151.78 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 255,282 tons, and the daily change was 120 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,375 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 75 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,030 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 45.52 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 239,325 tons, and the daily change was - 2,600 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 334,030 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 7,990 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 42,560 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 30.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 5,415 tons, and the daily change was - 5 tons [2].
20251222申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251222
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Night - time copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of break - even. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output is declining, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Zinc**: Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output is declining, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector needs to be noted. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Data - **Domestic Futures and LME Data** - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 93,000 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 170 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 11,882 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 4.73 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 164,275 tons, and the daily change was - 2,650 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,120 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 160 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,945 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 40.15 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 519,600 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,065 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 155 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,073 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.61 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 99,400 tons, and the daily change was 1,700 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 117,180 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 4,670 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 14,803 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 187.63 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,938 tons, and the daily change was - 60 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,850 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 1,985 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 45.23 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 262,125 tons, and the daily change was - 3,450 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 343,040 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 6,520 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 43,227 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 11.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 4,425 tons, and the daily change was 235 tons [2].
20251217申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251217
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Copper: Night-time copper prices slightly declined. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is at the break - even point. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production is in decline, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have fallen, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production is in decline, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment in the non - ferrous market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Metal Market Data - **Copper**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 91,840 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 145 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 11,619 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 9.52 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 165,875 tons with a daily change of - 25 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 21,780 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 120 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,883 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 43.33 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 519,600 tons with a daily change of - 50 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 23,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 65 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,035 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 31.61 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 64,475 tons with a daily change of 2,550 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 112,290 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,670 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 14,255 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 190.25 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 253,392 tons with a daily change of 360 tons [2]. - **Lead**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 16,825 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 85 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 1,942 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 51.52 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 252,475 tons with a daily change of 17,725 tons [2]. - **Tin**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 320,620 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 5,820 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 40,955 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is 50.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 3,795 tons with a daily change of 125 tons [2].
20251215申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251215
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices closed down by over 2% during the weekend night session. The concentrate supply remains tight, with smelting profits on the verge of break - even. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still maintained high growth. Copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit due to mine supply disturbances. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices closed down by over 1% during the weekend night session. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, while smelting output continued to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply - demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector needs attention. Suggestions include monitoring the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: Weekend night - session price down over 2%, concentrate supply tight, smelting output with high growth, downstream demand mixed, supply - demand expected to be in deficit [2]. - Zinc: Weekend night - session price down over 1%, concentrate supply temporarily tight, smelting output growing, downstream demand mixed, overall supply - demand difference not obvious [2]. - Aluminum, Nickel, Lead, and Tin: Only price, basis, LME - related prices, inventory and inventory change data are provided without specific market analysis [2]. Price and Inventory Data | Metal | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 94,020 | - 30 | 11,553 | 20.69 | 165,850 | 875 | | Aluminum | 21,875 | - 60 | 2,875 | - 32.55 | 518,750 | - 2,050 | | Zinc | 22,970 | 45 | 3,139 | 90.60 | 60,350 | 550 | | Nickel | 115,400 | - 3,490 | 14,620 | - 186.45 | 252,852 | - 240 | | Lead | 17,170 | - 75 | 1,966 | - 49.62 | 235,475 | - 75 | | Tin | 318,710 | 320 | 41,125 | 17.00 | 3,695 | 40 | [2]