Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices may be on the strong side, and zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices rose 0.47%, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit, supporting copper prices in the long term. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices rose 0.11%, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventories increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. Overall, zinc supply - demand differences are not obvious, and prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - **Domestic Futures and Basis**: Copper's previous closing price was 88,680 yuan/ton with a basis of - 65 yuan/ton; aluminum was 21,270 yuan/ton with a basis of - 30 yuan/ton; zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton with a basis of - 85 yuan/ton; nickel was 121,250 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,520 yuan/ton; lead was 17,370 yuan/ton with a basis of - 210 yuan/ton; tin was 286,170 yuan/ton with a basis of - 470 yuan/ton [2]. - **LME Data**: For copper, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 11,090 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 19.66 dollars/ton, and the inventory was 134,575 tons with a daily change of - 1,400 tons; for aluminum, it was 2,870 dollars/ton, - 0.99 dollars/ton, 465,650 tons, and - 3,625 tons respectively; for zinc, 3,070 dollars/ton, 132.96 dollars/ton, 35,250 tons, and - 1,800 tons; for nickel, 15,405 dollars/ton, - 203.99 dollars/ton, 251,436 tons, and 198 tons; for lead, 2,019 dollars/ton, - 35.12 dollars/ton, 229,675 tons, and - 2,700 tons; for tin, 36,105 dollars/ton, 10.02 dollars/ton, 2,700 tons, and - 25 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices may be on the stronger side as the concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, and an Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Although zinc concentrate processing fees are rising and smelting profits are positive, with smelting output expected to increase, the overall supply - demand difference is not obvious. Also, due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices rose by over 1%. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand deficit [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices rose by 0.45%. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to increase. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones [2]. Market Data - **Domestic Futures and Basis**: Copper's previous domestic futures closing price was 86,990 yuan/ton with a basis of - 60 yuan/ton; aluminum was 21,120 yuan/ton with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton; zinc was 22,275 yuan/ton with a basis of - 95 yuan/ton; nickel was 120,300 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,490 yuan/ton; lead was 17,375 yuan/ton with a basis of - 205 yuan/ton; tin was 282,780 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,930 yuan/ton [2]. - **LME Data**: For copper, the LME 3 - month closing price was 11,030 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 19.54 dollars/ton and an inventory of 135,975 tons (a daily decrease of 375 tons); for aluminum, it was 2,894 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 2.61 dollars/ton and an inventory of 469,275 tons (a daily decrease of 3,850 tons); for zinc, it was 3,057 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 171.09 dollars/ton and an inventory of 37,050 tons (a daily decrease of 550 tons); for nickel, it was 15,245 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 207.07 dollars/ton and an inventory of 251,238 tons (a daily increase of 384 tons); for lead, it was 2,025 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 35.54 dollars/ton and an inventory of 232,375 tons (a daily decrease of 3,000 tons); for tin, it was 36,325 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 40.00 dollars/ton and an inventory of 2,725 tons (a daily decrease of 25 tons) [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue rising. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall supply - demand differences are not significant [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Market performance: Copper prices closed slightly lower at night. - Supply and demand factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output has high growth. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a supply - demand deficit in the global copper market [2]. - Strategy: Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Market performance: Zinc prices closed slightly higher at night. - Supply and demand factors: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. Domestic and foreign inventory situations are different, with domestic zinc prices potentially weaker than foreign ones [2]. - Strategy: Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - **Domestic Futures and Basis**: Copper's previous closing price was 88,390 yuan/ton with a basis of - 60 yuan/ton; aluminum's was 21,305 yuan/ton with a basis of - 60 yuan/ton; zinc's was 22,310 yuan/ton with a basis of - 105 yuan/ton; nickel's was 122,060 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,540 yuan/ton; lead's was 17,525 yuan/ton with a basis of - 215 yuan/ton; tin's was 286,150 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,540 yuan/ton [2]. - **LME Data**: Copper's LME 3 - month forward closing price is not provided, with a spot premium of - 23.84 dollars/ton and an inventory of 136,350 tons (a daily decrease of 575 tons); aluminum had a spot premium of 3.28 dollars/ton and an inventory of 473,125 tons (a daily decrease of 4,550 tons); zinc had a spot premium of 212.89 dollars/ton and an inventory of 37,600 tons (a daily increase of 2,900 tons); nickel had an LME 3 - month forward closing price of 15,335 dollars/ton, a spot premium of - 205.18 dollars/ton, and an inventory of 250,854 tons (no daily change); lead had an LME 3 - month forward closing price of 2,024 dollars/ton, a spot premium of - 33.80 dollars/ton, and an inventory of 235,375 tons (a daily decrease of 4,375 tons); tin had a spot premium of 100.00 dollars/ton and an inventory of 2,750 tons (a daily increase of 30 tons) [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Copper prices may be on the strong side. The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with smelting profits on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, the supply - demand difference for zinc is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Copper - Market performance: Night - session copper prices closed slightly lower. The previous domestic futures closing price was 87,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,947 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 25.97 dollars/ton. LME copper inventory was 136,925 tons, with a daily increase of 75 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting output is growing, power grid investment is growing positively, power source investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap [2]. Zinc - Market performance: Night - session zinc prices closed lower. The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,315 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 85 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,020 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 187.37 dollars/ton. LME zinc inventory was 34,700 tons, with a daily decrease of 600 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, smelting output is expected to rise, galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly, infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,205 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,857 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 3.19 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory was 477,675 tons, with a daily decrease of 4,850 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 121,860 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,390 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,325 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 194.12 dollars/ton. LME nickel inventory was 250,854 tons, with a daily decrease of 24 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,635 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 215 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,017 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 36.64 dollars/ton. LME lead inventory was 239,750 tons, with a daily decrease of 4,375 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 283,810 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,470 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 35,650 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 143.00 dollars/ton. LME tin inventory was 2,720 tons, with a daily decrease of 25 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, the supply - demand difference is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects a. Copper - Market performance: Night - time copper prices closed higher. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 86,030 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 10 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 10,817 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 11.55 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 136,850 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting output is growing, grid investment is growing positively, power source investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap [2]. b. Zinc - Market performance: Night - time zinc prices closed flat. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,300 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 95 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 3,023 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 225.89 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 35,300 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly, infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2]. c. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 21,135 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 30 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,865 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 8.21 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 482,525 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 121,150 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,530 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 15,335 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 190.56 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 250,878 tons, an increase of 402 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 17,615 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 205 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,012 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 36.83 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 244,125 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 281,230 yuan/ton, with a basis of 720 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 35,725 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 100.00 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 2,745 tons, an increase of 10 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. The short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally rebounded, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, the supply - demand difference is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market situation: Night - session copper prices fluctuated and consolidated. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output has high growth. Grid investment has positive growth, power supply investment slows down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand deficit [2]. - Price outlook: Copper prices may be on the stronger side. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 85,380 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 10 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,659 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 6.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 137,150 tons, and the daily change was - 25 tons [2]. Zinc - Market situation: Night - session zinc prices closed higher, and the low LME inventory led to an obvious spot premium. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally rebounded, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate slowed down, automobile production and sales had positive growth, home appliance production scheduling had negative growth, and the real estate market was weak. Domestic and foreign inventory situations are different [2]. - Price outlook: Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,985 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 95 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,020 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 338.74 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 37,275 tons, and the daily change was - 50 tons [2]. Other Metals (Aluminum, Nickel, Lead, Tin) - Market data: - Aluminum: Previous domestic futures closing price was 21,015 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,806 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 2.61 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 484,125 tons, and daily change was - 3,000 tons [2]. - Nickel: Previous domestic futures closing price was 121,120 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,430 yuan/ton, previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,140 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 202.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 250,476 tons, and daily change was 0 tons [2]. - Lead: Previous domestic futures closing price was 17,160 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 195 yuan/ton, previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,995 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 39.73 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 247,300 tons, and daily change was 0 tons [2]. - Tin: Previous domestic futures closing price was 281,680 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 120 yuan/ton, previous LME 3 - month closing price was 35,400 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 55.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,735 tons, and daily change was 0 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may be on the strong side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - For copper, the concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are increasing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real - estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2] - For zinc, the short - term zinc concentrate processing fee has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets has increased on a weekly basis. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are increasing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real - estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow. The Indonesian mine accident may cause a global copper supply - demand gap, long - term supporting copper prices. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 85,380 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 15 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,597 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 30.22 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 137,175 tons, and the daily change was - 50 tons [2] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. LME low inventory has led to a significant spot premium. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,855 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,994 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 299.34 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 37,325 tons, and the daily change was - 700 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,890 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 0 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,781 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 1.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 487,125 tons, and the daily change was - 4,100 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 120,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,680 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,210 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 206.29 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 250,476 tons, and the daily change was - 54 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,060 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 195 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,993 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 39.69 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 247,300 tons, and the daily change was - 3,100 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 279,340 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 350 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 35,475 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 56.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,735 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]

研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 20251021申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 跟随铜价走势 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 | 可能偏强 | | | 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。中美贸易对峙后，市场情绪逐步 | | | | 企稳。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。短期锌精矿加工费总体回升，冶炼利润转正，冶炼产量 | | | | 有望持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度增加。基建投资累计增速趋 | 跟随铜价走 | | 锌 | 缓，汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。由于国内外库存状 | 势 | | | 况迥异，国内 ...

研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确 地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 20251020申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 摘要 | | | | | 锌： 跟随铜价走势 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收涨。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘， 但冶炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源 | | | 铜 | 投资放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大 | 可能偏强 | | | 概率导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。中美贸易对峙后，市场情绪 | | | | 逐步企稳。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the strong side. The tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, positive growth in power grid investment and automobile production and sales, negative growth in home appliance production scheduling, and the Indonesian mine accident that may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap all support copper prices in the long - term. Market sentiment has gradually stabilized after the Sino - US trade confrontation [2]. - Zinc prices will follow copper prices. Although the short - term zinc concentrate processing fee has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise, due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. Overall, the supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Copper - Night - session copper prices closed higher. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. Power grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Market sentiment has stabilized after the Sino - US trade confrontation. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. The short - term zinc concentrate processing fee has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. Zinc supply - demand difference is not obvious overall, but it will follow copper prices in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | **Variety** | **Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton)** | **Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton)** | **Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton)** | **LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, USD/ton)** | **LME Inventory (ton)** | **LME Inventory Daily Change (ton)** | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 85,050 | 35 | 10,620 | - 11.16 | 138,350 | - 450 | | Aluminum | 20,975 | 0 | 2,796 | 17.52 | 498,975 | - 4,975 | | Zinc | 21,940 | - 55 | 2,968 | 137.20 | 38,350 | - 250 | | Nickel | 121,270 | - 1,580 | 15,230 | - 205.73 | 246,756 | 3,498 | | Lead | 17,100 | - 210 | 1,972 | - 44.99 | 254,775 | 8,225 | | Tin | 281,350 | 650 | 35,725 | - 129.00 | 2,575 | 190 | [2]