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商品期权周报:2025年第20周-20250525
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-25 14:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 19 - May 23, 2025), the trading volume of the commodity options market declined, with an average daily trading volume of 5.91 million lots and an average daily open interest of 8.29 million lots, showing a -11% and +10% change respectively compared to the previous period. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance, with most chemical and non - ferrous metals declining, and 37 varieties closing higher for the week. Many varieties' implied volatility continued to decline, and the trading and open - interest PCR of some varieties indicated strong short - term bullish or bearish sentiment [2][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - This week, the average daily trading volume of actively traded varieties included styrene (750,000 lots), alumina (740,000 lots), and silver (360,000 lots). Alumina had a significant trading volume increase of +165%, while polysilicon decreased by -69% [1][8]. - The varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (790,000 lots), soda ash (490,000 lots), and glass (480,000 lots). Alumina's open interest increased by +107% [1][8]. 3.2 Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Changes**: This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance. The varieties with high weekly gains were alumina (+9.65%), gold (+3.76%), and silver (+2.00%); those with high losses were synthetic rubber (-3.96%), LPG (-3.63%), and ferrosilicon (-3.37%) [2][16]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity implied volatilities continued to decline this week, with 39 varieties showing a decline in implied volatility. High - volatility varieties include gold, and low - volatility varieties include oilseeds, rebar, and iron ore [2][16]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of some varieties such as p - xylene, LPG, and polypropylene is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of glass and rubber is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment [2][16]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20].