Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - The optimistic trading sentiment in the precious metals market continues to boost the platinum and palladium markets. The 2606 main contracts of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange both hit the daily limit after the opening, with palladium falling back during the session. The continuous shortage of physical spot and cross - regional arbitrage trading have significantly amplified the price elasticity of platinum and palladium recently. In the long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit pattern, and the expansion of medium - and long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may provide some support for its price. The prices of platinum and palladium show a parabolic upward trend, and the need for basis repair may increase the short - term correction risk [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the platinum main contract was 619.95 yuan/gram, up 56.35 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 532.55 yuan/gram, up 27.85 yuan. The platinum main contract's open interest was 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the palladium main contract's open interest was 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 561.61 yuan/gram, up 28.04 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price increased by 6.00 yuan. The platinum main contract's basis was - 28.31 yuan/gram, down 28.31 yuan; the palladium main contract's basis was - 97.55 yuan/gram, down 21.85 yuan [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Long Positions**: The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. 2. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3. Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.26, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.94%, up 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 14.08, down 0.83 [2]. 4. Industry News - The Ukrainian delegation completed negotiations with the US and the 20 - point "peace plan" is in the initial draft stage. Fed Governor Milan said that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, it may face the risk of an economic recession. The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for 6 months until July 31, 2026. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 19.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 80.1%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 44.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.2% [2]. 5. Price Outlook - This week, the London platinum spot price is expected to face resistance at 2300 US dollars/ounce and support at 1800 US dollars/ounce; the London palladium spot price is expected to face resistance at 1900 US dollars/ounce and support at 1600 US dollars/ounce [2]. 6. Key Data to Watch - On December 23 at 21:30, the US GDP deflator quarter - on - quarter (%) will be released; on December 24 at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims will be released [2]

铂钯金期货日报 2025/12/22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 568.45 | 37.15↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 508.45 | +33.25↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) | 10387.00 | -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） | 533.57 | 21.92↑ 长江钯金现货价 | 429.00 | 0.00↑ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -34.88 | -15.23↓ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -79.45 | -33.25↓ | | | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | 9966.00 | -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | 3003.00 | -342.00↓ | | 供需情况 | 供应量:铂金:总计( ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 19」 铂钯金市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：本周铂钯金市场强势运行，其中钯金主力合约两次冲击涨停，由于前期钯金走势较其他贵 金属相对落后，钯金上涨弹性较大，铂金主力合约亦录得一次涨停，钯金2606合约周涨23.30%，铂金 2606合约周涨18.03%。近期铂族金属价格大幅上涨，主要由现货紧缺与套利交易推动。一方面，伦敦 铂金租赁利率快速回升，显示实物供应收紧；钯金ETF持仓持续增加，进一步吸纳流通货源，加剧供需 矛盾。另一方面，较高的期现基差和内外价差激发了套利动机。套利资金为锁定利润而增持现货，推 升现货价格并放大期货价格弹性。铂金在美联储宽松预期、供需结构性赤字格局延续、氢能经济中长 期需求预期扩张的支撑下，中长期或继续支撑铂金价格。钯金在汽车催化剂领域的过度集中化，以及 新能源汽车的持续普及，使其需求端预期走 ...

铂钯金期货日报 2025/12/18 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证， 据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究 院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 27.40↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 476.60 | 542.60 | | | +31.15↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) 3179.00 | 10387.00 | -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） 13.76↑ 长江钯金现货价 390.00 ...

铂钯金期货日报 2025/12/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 527.55 | 34.50↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 455.15 | +29.75↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) | 10387.00 | -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） | 497.89 | 26.57↑ 长江钯金现货价 | 406.00 | 21.00↑ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -29.66 | -7.93↓ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -49.15 | -8.75↓ | | 供需情况 | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | 9966.00 | -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | 3003.00 | -342.00↓ | | | 供应量:铂金:总计(年 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's restart of interest - rate cuts has driven the prices of platinum - group metals to continue rising, with the price of London platinum hitting a new record high. The recent price increases of platinum and palladium are mainly driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading [2]. - In the medium - to - long - term, platinum prices may continue to be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the structural supply - demand deficit pattern, and the expected expansion of long - term demand in the hydrogen economy. However, the demand outlook for palladium is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new - energy vehicles. The palladium market is shifting from a supply shortage to a surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may provide some support for its price [2]. - Given the significant recent price increases in the precious - metal market, short - term correction risks should be noted. Specific price ranges for different contracts and spot prices are provided [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum: The closing price of the platinum main contract was 485.75 yuan/gram, up 11.65 yuan. The main - contract holding volume was 10,387 hands, down 277 hands [2]. - Palladium: The closing price of the palladium main contract was 423.85 yuan/gram, up 19.15 yuan. The main - contract holding volume was 3,179 hands, up 90 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Platinum: The spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (Pt9995) was 471.32 yuan/gram, up 4.47 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 14.43 yuan/gram, down 7.18 yuan. The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) were 9,966 contracts, down 243 contracts [2]. - Palladium: The spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River market was 385 yuan/gram, up 19 yuan. The basis of the palladium main contract was - 38.85 yuan/gram, down 0.15 yuan. The non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) were 3,003 contracts, down 342 contracts [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum: The total annual supply in 2025 is expected to be 220.4 tons, down 0.8 tons. The total annual demand in 2025 is expected to be 261.6 tons, up 25.6 tons [2]. - Palladium: The total annual supply in 2025 is expected to be 293 tons, down 5 tons. The total annual demand in 2025 is expected to be 287 tons, down 27 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.28, down 0.12. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.93%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index was 16.50, up 0.76 [2]. - US economic data: The December New York Fed Manufacturing Index was - 3.9 (expected 9.7, previous 18.7); the December NAHB Housing Market Index was 39 (expected 38, previous 38) [2]. - Fed officials' statements: Williams expects the US unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% by the end of 2025, noting increased labor - market risks and eased inflation risks. Milan believes the Fed's policy stance is an unnecessary constraint on the economy, and supports larger - scale interest - rate cuts in the future [2]. - CME "FedWatch": The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 75.6%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 43.5%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 47.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 9.1% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's restart of interest - rate cuts has pushed up the prices of platinum - group metals. The recent price increases of platinum and palladium are due to spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The tightening of physical supply and increased ETF holdings of palladium have exacerbated the supply - demand contradiction, while large basis and spread differences have spurred arbitrage [2]. 3.6 Key Points of Attention - On December 16, at 21:30, the US November non - farm payrolls report will be released. At 23:00, the US Markit S&P Global PMI (services & manufacturing) will be released [2].

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证， 据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究 院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铂钯金期货日报 2025/12/15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | 环比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 482.40 31.55↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 407.60 | +18.40↑ | | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) 10387.00 -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | | 现货市场 | | 2.00↑ | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） 466.85 21.31↑ 长江钯金现货价 366.00 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2025年12月15日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。铂涨7%，钯涨超4%，多晶硅、集运欧线、焦煤涨超 3%，烧碱、氧化铝涨近3%；跌幅方面，苹果跌超2%，国际铜、沪铝、沪铜、菜油跌超1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 是新 | 现手 | 20-10 | 荣价 | 盛德米十 | 外汇 | 英语 | 成交量 | 漆蛋 | 持位置 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 第2606 W | 482.40 | 1 | 482.40 | | 7.00% | 456 | --- | 41832 31.55 | | 17844 | 6674 | | 2 | 2606 W | 407.60 | 1 | 407.40 | 407.45 | 4.73% | T | 1 | 30669 18.40 | | 5562 | 2099 | | 3 | 多品硅2605 M | 58030 | 7 | 58025 | 58030 | ...

12月15日盘中，铂期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至479.90元，创上市以来新高。截止发 稿，铂主力合约报479.55元，涨幅6.37%。 国信期货：广期所铂金期货短期表现或相对更强 铂族金属走势继续受宏观情绪与板块联动主导。一方面，美联储内部政策信号不一，但整体宽松预期仍 未扭转，支撑贵金属整体氛围；另一方面，地缘风险持续，叠加资金在金银强势后的扩散效应，推动具 备一定金融属性的铂金获得补涨动能。钯金则受制于传统汽车需求前景疲软，表现相对温和。预计铂族 金属短期或延续分化震荡，广期所铂金期货短期表现或相对更强。 瑞达期货：铂2606合约关注区间：445-460元/克 宏观方面，美联储如期展开25个基点的降息操作，鲍威尔强调当前通胀仍高于目标，但非关税因素导致 的核心通胀已明显回落。铂金在美联储宽松预期、供需结构性赤字格局延续、氢能经济中长期需求预期 扩张的支撑下，中长期或继续支撑铂金价格。运行区间，伦敦铂金现货关注上方阻力位1750美元/盎 司，下方支撑位1600美元/盎司。铂2606合约关注区间：445-460元/克。 铂期货主力涨超6%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 12」 铂钯金市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：广期所铂钯金主力合约本周震荡偏强运行，铂2606主力合约周涨2.67%报452.05元/克，钯 2606主力合约周涨2.58%报389.45元/克。在联储降息的利好消息驱动下，铂钯金价格突破前期震荡整 理区间并重拾上行动能。宏观方面，美联储如期展开25个基点的降息操作，鲍威尔强调当前通胀仍高 于目标，但非关税因素导致的核心通胀已明显回落。若无新增关税，商品通胀预计将在2026年第一季 度触顶。目前利率已处于中性区间上沿，政策正从限制性向中性过渡。铂金在美联储宽松预期、供需 结构性赤字格局延续、氢能经济中长期需求预期扩张的支撑下，中长期或继续支撑铂金价格。钯金在 汽车催化剂领域的过度集中化，以及新能源汽车的持续普及，使其需求端预期走弱，钯金市场正逐步 由供不应求转向供应过剩，供需格局预期较为宽松，但降息预期所带 ...