Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Platinum prices may be supported in the medium to long term by expectations of Fed easing, a continued structural deficit in supply and demand, and expanding long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the spread of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may support prices. The recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high - level decline, and short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 657.65 yuan/gram, up 43.00 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 578.45 yuan/gram, up 37.80 yuan. The main contract position of platinum is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the main contract position of palladium is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 606.99 yuan/gram, up 45.38 yuan; the spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River is 458.00 yuan/gram, up 23.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract is - 50.66 yuan/gram, up 2.38 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract is - 120.45 yuan/gram, down 14.80 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.90, down 0.36; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.94%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index is 14.00, down 0.08 [2] Industry News - The US Q3 real GDP initial value annualized quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3%. US President Trump hopes the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and market perform well. Gold has risen over 71% this year, and silver has risen about 147%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 86.7% [2] Key Points to Watch - The number of initial jobless claims in the US at 21:30 on December 24 [2]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - The optimistic trading sentiment in the precious metals market continues to boost the platinum and palladium markets. The 2606 main contracts of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange both hit the daily limit after the opening, with palladium falling back during the session. The continuous shortage of physical spot and cross - regional arbitrage trading have significantly amplified the price elasticity of platinum and palladium recently. In the long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit pattern, and the expansion of medium - and long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may provide some support for its price. The prices of platinum and palladium show a parabolic upward trend, and the need for basis repair may increase the short - term correction risk [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the platinum main contract was 619.95 yuan/gram, up 56.35 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 532.55 yuan/gram, up 27.85 yuan. The platinum main contract's open interest was 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the palladium main contract's open interest was 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 561.61 yuan/gram, up 28.04 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price increased by 6.00 yuan. The platinum main contract's basis was - 28.31 yuan/gram, down 28.31 yuan; the palladium main contract's basis was - 97.55 yuan/gram, down 21.85 yuan [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Long Positions**: The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. 2. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3. Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.26, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.94%, up 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 14.08, down 0.83 [2]. 4. Industry News - The Ukrainian delegation completed negotiations with the US and the 20 - point "peace plan" is in the initial draft stage. Fed Governor Milan said that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, it may face the risk of an economic recession. The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for 6 months until July 31, 2026. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 19.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 80.1%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 44.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.2% [2]. 5. Price Outlook - This week, the London platinum spot price is expected to face resistance at 2300 US dollars/ounce and support at 1800 US dollars/ounce; the London palladium spot price is expected to face resistance at 1900 US dollars/ounce and support at 1600 US dollars/ounce [2]. 6. Key Data to Watch - On December 23 at 21:30, the US GDP deflator quarter - on - quarter (%) will be released; on December 24 at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims will be released [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Today, the platinum and palladium futures main contracts both hit the daily limit. Persistent physical spot shortages and cross - regional arbitrage trading have significantly increased the price elasticity of platinum and palladium recently. The London platinum lease rate continues to rise, and palladium ETF holdings continue to increase, exacerbating the supply - demand contradiction. High domestic - foreign price differentials have spurred arbitrage motives, pushing up spot prices and amplifying futures price elasticity. In the medium to long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit pattern, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles. The palladium market is shifting from a supply shortage to a surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support prices. The parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may lead to a short - term correction risk due to basis repair needs. The weekly resistance and support levels for London platinum spot are $2100/ounce and $1800/ounce respectively, and for London palladium spot are $1800/ounce and $1500/ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 568.45 yuan/gram, up 37.15 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 508.45 yuan/gram, up 33.25 yuan. The platinum main contract's open interest is 10387 hands, down 277 hands; the palladium main contract's open interest is 3179 hands, up 90 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 533.57 yuan/gram, up 21.92 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price is 429 yuan/gram, unchanged. The platinum main contract's basis is - 34.88 yuan/gram, down 15.23 yuan; the palladium main contract's basis is - 79.45 yuan/gram, down 33.25 yuan. The weekly non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC are 9966 contracts, down 243 contracts; those of palladium are 3003 contracts, down 342 contracts [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.4 tons, down 0.8 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293 tons, down 5 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.6 tons, up 25.6 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287 tons, down 27 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.72, up 0.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, up 0.04%. The VIX volatility index is 14.91, down 1.96 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset agrees with Goolsbee that there is still sufficient room for interest - rate cuts. Trump hopes the Fed Chairman can make an independent judgment, and Trump's aides will discuss housing policies in Florida and are expected to announce a "major" housing plan soon. Fed's Harker prefers to keep interest rates stable before spring, suggests the neutral rate is higher than commonly thought, and opposes near - term interest - rate cuts due to concerns about high inflation. New York Fed President Williams says there is no urgency to cut interest rates again, strengthening the market's expectation of a short - term pause in rate cuts. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 21%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 79%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 47.1%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 43.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 9.5% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On December 22 at 23:00, the US PCE price index month - on - month; on December 23 at 21:30, the US GDP deflator quarter - on - quarter; on December 24 at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the platinum and palladium markets showed strong performance. The palladium futures main contract reached the daily limit twice, and the platinum futures main contract hit the daily limit once. The palladium 2606 contract rose 23.30% this week, and the platinum 2606 contract rose 18.03% [5]. - The recent sharp increase in platinum - group metal prices is mainly driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The rapid recovery of the London platinum lease rate indicates tightened physical supply, and the continuous increase in palladium ETF holdings exacerbates the supply - demand contradiction. High basis and price differences between domestic and foreign markets stimulate arbitrage motives [5]. - In the medium to long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expanding long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new - energy vehicles. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support prices, and its low current price may make it a cost - effective choice again [5]. - The parabolic rise in the prices of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange may increase the short - term correction risk due to the upward repair demand of the basis. Next week, the spot price of London platinum is expected to face resistance at $2000 per ounce and support at $1800 per ounce, while the spot price of London palladium is expected to face resistance at $1750 per ounce and support at $1500 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - This week, the platinum and palladium markets were strong. The palladium 2606 contract rose 23.30%, and the platinum 2606 contract rose 18.03%. The price increase is driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The medium - to - long - term price of platinum may be supported, while the demand outlook for palladium is weak, but there is some short - term price support. There is a short - term correction risk, and the price ranges for London platinum and palladium are predicted [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - As of December 19, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium main 2606 contract was at 480.20 yuan per gram, up 23.20% this week, and the platinum main 2606 contract was at 533.55 yuan per gram, up 18.03% [10]. - As of December 2, 2025, the net long position of NYMEX platinum increased by 1.51% month - on - month to 23,286, and the net long position of NYMEX palladium decreased by 16.76% month - on - month to - 1491 [15]. - This week, the basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened [16]. - As of December 18, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 1.66% month - on - month to 624,733.09 ounces, and palladium inventory decreased by 1.26% month - on - month to 186,849.34 ounces [23]. - This week, the price ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold increased, the rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices increased, and the positive correlation between platinum prices, NYMEX platinum inventory, and the US dollar index increased [24][27][31]. 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of October 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum both decreased [35]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts is marginally weakening, and the total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a moderate downward trend, while the global supply of platinum and palladium is declining [40][45][50]. 3.4 Macroeconomics and Options - This week, the US dollar index weakened, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded slightly [54].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Recent sharp increases in platinum and palladium prices are driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. Platinum may see continued price support in the medium - to - long term due to Fed easing expectations, a persistent supply - demand structural deficit, and expanding long - term demand expectations from the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening as its market shifts from supply shortage to surplus, but dovish sentiment from rate - cut expectations may support prices, and its low price could make it a cost - effective option. The parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange may increase short - term correction risks due to the upward repair demand of the basis. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price is 542.60 yuan/gram (up 27.40), and the main contract position is 10387.00 hands (down 277.00). Palladium's main contract closing price is 476.60 yuan/gram (up 31.15), and the main contract position is 3179.00 hands (up 90.00). [2] 现货 Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 511.65 yuan/gram (up 13.76), and the Yangtze River palladium spot price is 390.00 yuan/gram (down 3.00). The platinum main contract basis is - 13.64 yuan/gram (down), and the palladium main contract basis is - 86.60 yuan/gram (down 34.15). Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions decreased by 243.00 contracts weekly, and palladium's decreased by 342.00 contracts. [2] Supply - Demand Situation - In 2025, the total platinum supply is expected to decrease by 0.80 tons, and the total demand is expected to increase by 25.60 tons. The total palladium supply is expected to be 220.40 tons (down 5.00 tons), and the total demand is expected to be 261.60 tons (down 27.00 tons). [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.22 (down 0.06), the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92% (down 0.01%), and the VIX volatility index is 16.48 (down 0.02). US economic data shows mixed performance, with the unemployment rate rising, retail sales having different trends, and PMI values falling. The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the economic outlook, expecting 3.5% GDP growth in 2025 and indicating that Trump will announce the Fed Chair candidate in early January. [2] Industry News - The palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the platinum main contract continued its upward momentum. Price increases are due to spot shortages and arbitrage trading. [2] Key Attention Points - Key US economic data to be released include the core CPI month - on - month on 12 - 18 at 21:30, the PCE price index month - on - month on 12 - 19 at 21:30, and the University of Michigan's 1 - year inflation rate expectation on 12 - 19 at 23:00. [2] Price Range - For London platinum spot, the upper resistance level is 2000 dollars/ounce, and the lower support level is 1800 dollars/ounce. For London palladium spot, the upper resistance level is 1750 dollars/ounce, and the lower support level is 1500 dollars/ounce. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest non - farm report shows that the US labor market remains weak, with the unemployment rate rebounding sharply in November. The expectation of an FOMC rate cut in March next year has increased, and the main platinum and palladium futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continue to rise strongly [2]. - The recent price increase of platinum and palladium is mainly driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The tightening of physical supply and the increase in palladium ETF holdings exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction, and high basis and spreads stimulate arbitrage motives [2]. - In the medium and long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of medium - to - long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by rate - cut expectations may support prices, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective choice again [2]. - Due to the recent large increase in the precious metal market, short - term correction risks should be noted. Specific price ranges for different contracts and spot prices are provided [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main contract closing price (daily, yuan/g): 527.55, up 34.50; Palladium main contract closing price (daily, yuan/g): 455.15, up 29.75. - Main contract positions: Platinum (daily, lots): 10387.00, down 277.00; Palladium (daily, lots): 3179.00, up 90.00 [2] 3.2现货市场 - SGE platinum spot price (Pt9995): 497.89, up 26.57; Yangtze River palladium spot price: 406.00, up 21.00. - Platinum main contract basis (daily, yuan/g): - 29.66, down 7.93; Palladium main contract basis (daily, yuan/g): - 49.15, down 8.75 [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 9966.00, down 243.00; Palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 3003.00, down 342.00. - Total platinum supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; Total palladium supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00. - Total platinum demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; Total palladium demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2] 3.4 Macro Data - US dollar index: 98.22, down 0.02; VIX volatility index: 16.48, down 0.06; 10 - year US Treasury real yield (%): 1.92, down 0.01. - In November, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. In October, non - farm payrolls decreased by 105,000, far more than the expected 25,000. The data for August and September were also revised down by a total of 33,000. The average hourly wage in November increased by 3.5% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate since May 2021. - In October, US retail sales were flat month - on - month, slightly lower than the expected 0.1% growth, mainly dragged down by a 1.6% decline in auto sales. Core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations. - The preliminary value of the US S & P Global Manufacturing PMI in December dropped to 51.8, a 5 - month low. The preliminary value of the Services PMI dropped from 54.1 to 52.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI dropped to 53, all at 6 - month lows. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent is optimistic about the US economic outlook, expecting the full - year GDP growth rate in 2025 to reach 3.5%, and Trump will announce the candidate for the Fed Chairman in early January next year [2] 3.5 Key Points to Follow - On December 17 at 21:30, pay attention to the year - on - year change of US retail sales (%); on December 18 at 21:30, pay attention to the month - on - month change of US core CPI (%) [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's restart of interest - rate cuts has driven the prices of platinum - group metals to continue rising, with the price of London platinum hitting a new record high. The recent price increases of platinum and palladium are mainly driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading [2]. - In the medium - to - long - term, platinum prices may continue to be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the structural supply - demand deficit pattern, and the expected expansion of long - term demand in the hydrogen economy. However, the demand outlook for palladium is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new - energy vehicles. The palladium market is shifting from a supply shortage to a surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may provide some support for its price [2]. - Given the significant recent price increases in the precious - metal market, short - term correction risks should be noted. Specific price ranges for different contracts and spot prices are provided [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum: The closing price of the platinum main contract was 485.75 yuan/gram, up 11.65 yuan. The main - contract holding volume was 10,387 hands, down 277 hands [2]. - Palladium: The closing price of the palladium main contract was 423.85 yuan/gram, up 19.15 yuan. The main - contract holding volume was 3,179 hands, up 90 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Platinum: The spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (Pt9995) was 471.32 yuan/gram, up 4.47 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 14.43 yuan/gram, down 7.18 yuan. The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) were 9,966 contracts, down 243 contracts [2]. - Palladium: The spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River market was 385 yuan/gram, up 19 yuan. The basis of the palladium main contract was - 38.85 yuan/gram, down 0.15 yuan. The non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) were 3,003 contracts, down 342 contracts [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum: The total annual supply in 2025 is expected to be 220.4 tons, down 0.8 tons. The total annual demand in 2025 is expected to be 261.6 tons, up 25.6 tons [2]. - Palladium: The total annual supply in 2025 is expected to be 293 tons, down 5 tons. The total annual demand in 2025 is expected to be 287 tons, down 27 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.28, down 0.12. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.93%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index was 16.50, up 0.76 [2]. - US economic data: The December New York Fed Manufacturing Index was - 3.9 (expected 9.7, previous 18.7); the December NAHB Housing Market Index was 39 (expected 38, previous 38) [2]. - Fed officials' statements: Williams expects the US unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% by the end of 2025, noting increased labor - market risks and eased inflation risks. Milan believes the Fed's policy stance is an unnecessary constraint on the economy, and supports larger - scale interest - rate cuts in the future [2]. - CME "FedWatch": The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 75.6%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 43.5%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 47.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 9.1% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's restart of interest - rate cuts has pushed up the prices of platinum - group metals. The recent price increases of platinum and palladium are due to spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The tightening of physical supply and increased ETF holdings of palladium have exacerbated the supply - demand contradiction, while large basis and spread differences have spurred arbitrage [2]. 3.6 Key Points of Attention - On December 16, at 21:30, the US November non - farm payrolls report will be released. At 23:00, the US Markit S&P Global PMI (services & manufacturing) will be released [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The restart of interest rate cuts by the Fed has pushed the prices of platinum - group metals to continue rising. The London platinum price has broken through the historical high, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 main contract has hit the daily limit, with palladium prices rising in tandem. In the medium - to long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the spread of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may support its price. Short - term correction risks should be noted due to the recent large gains in the precious metals market. The report also provides price ranges for London platinum and palladium spot and relevant futures contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 482.40, up 31.55; palladium main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 407.60, up 18.40. Platinum main contract持仓量 (daily, lots): 10387.00, down 277.00; palladium main contract持仓量 (daily, lots): 3179.00, up 90.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 466.85, up 21.31; Yangtze River palladium spot price: 366.00, up 2.00. Platinum main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 15.55, down 41.60; palladium main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram): - 16.40 (down). Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 9966.00, down 243.00; palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts): 3003.00, down 342.00 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Total platinum supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; total palladium supply (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00. Total platinum demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; total palladium demand (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - Dollar index: 98.40, up 0.04; 10 - year US Treasury real yield (%): 1.93, up 0.04; VIX volatility index: 15.74, up 0.89. Multiple Fed officials have spoken. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 75.6%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 41.9%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 49.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.3%. The Bank of Japan's governor and other senior officials have repeatedly signaled support for an interest rate hike [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's restart of interest rate cuts has led to the continuous strengthening of platinum - group metal prices. The London platinum price has broken through the historical high, and the palladium price has followed the upward trend. Platinum may be supported in the medium - to long - term, while palladium's demand outlook is weakening, but its price may be supported by interest rate cut expectations [2]. 3.6 Key Attention Points - December 15, 21:30, US December New York Fed Manufacturing Index; December 15, 23:00, US December NAHB Housing Market Index; December 16, 21:30, US November Non - farm Payrolls Report [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market shows mixed performance with platinum rising by 7% and palladium by over 4%, while apple futures dropped by over 2% [2][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Platinum futures increased by 7%, while palladium futures rose by over 4% [2][7]. - Other commodities such as polysilicon, shipping, and焦煤 (coking coal) saw gains of over 3%, while apple, international copper, and菜油 (rapeseed oil) experienced declines of over 1% [2][7]. Group 2: Futures Company Insights - Yide Futures reported that speculative funds for platinum and palladium have flowed in for two consecutive days, with platinum holdings increasing for five days, totaling 93,355 contracts (+1,464 contracts) as of December 12 [4][9]. - Guoxin Futures noted that the performance of platinum group metals is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and sector linkage, with ongoing geopolitical risks and a supportive environment for precious metals due to the Federal Reserve's easing expectations [4][9]. - Nanhua Futures highlighted that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5-3.75% and will begin purchasing short-term government bonds to maintain reserve levels, with an initial purchase scale of $40 billion [4][9]. - Ruida Futures suggested that platinum prices may continue to be supported in the medium to long term due to structural supply-demand deficits and expanding long-term demand in the hydrogen economy [5][9].

12月15日盘中，铂期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至479.90元，创上市以来新高。截止发 稿，铂主力合约报479.55元，涨幅6.37%。 国信期货：广期所铂金期货短期表现或相对更强 铂族金属走势继续受宏观情绪与板块联动主导。一方面，美联储内部政策信号不一，但整体宽松预期仍 未扭转，支撑贵金属整体氛围；另一方面，地缘风险持续，叠加资金在金银强势后的扩散效应，推动具 备一定金融属性的铂金获得补涨动能。钯金则受制于传统汽车需求前景疲软，表现相对温和。预计铂族 金属短期或延续分化震荡，广期所铂金期货短期表现或相对更强。 瑞达期货：铂2606合约关注区间：445-460元/克 宏观方面，美联储如期展开25个基点的降息操作，鲍威尔强调当前通胀仍高于目标，但非关税因素导致 的核心通胀已明显回落。铂金在美联储宽松预期、供需结构性赤字格局延续、氢能经济中长期需求预期 扩张的支撑下，中长期或继续支撑铂金价格。运行区间，伦敦铂金现货关注上方阻力位1750美元/盎 司，下方支撑位1600美元/盎司。铂2606合约关注区间：445-460元/克。 铂期货主力涨超6%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 ...