Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3, the price of protein meal will continue to be constrained by the absolute supply of raw materials, showing a weak range - bound volatile trend. With the smooth planting of new US soybean crops, there is limited upward driving force for the domestic soybean meal futures market. However, the near - term soybean meal futures price has basically squeezed out the trade - war premium and is gradually pricing in the Q3 supply pressure. There is still a gap in Q4 soybean purchases. After trading the arrival volume and inventory pressure in Q3, there may be an inflection point in the year. The low physical inventory of feed mills on the demand side also implies potential bullish factors. In terms of valuation, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums, the far - month futures price is expected to have marginal upward driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.8%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1852 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.385 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in purchasing costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low sales prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Q3 protein meal prices are constrained by raw material supply, showing a weak range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal futures market has limited upward momentum. The near - term price has squeezed out the trade - war premium and is pricing in Q3 supply pressure. There may be an inflection point after Q3, and the low inventory of feed mills is a potential bullish factor. The far - month price may have upward driving force due to limited downside of US soybeans and resilient Brazilian premiums [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - After China - US talks, there is strong cost - valuation support for the far - month contracts from the external market [5]. - Bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts is strong during the weather - related speculation period [5]. - Brazilian export premiums support the far - month contract prices from the cost end [5]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures, leading to weak performance of the 09 contract. Soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are rising, and some areas are urging提货 [6]. - In terms of arrivals, there will be 11.5 million tons in July and 11 million tons in August. Supply in Q3 is still abundant, and the Q4 gap depends on China - US relations [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted slowly, and adding rapeseed meal lacks cost - effectiveness for downstream users. The market's reaction to the WTO's investigation of China - Canada tariff issues is inelastic, and the rapeseed meal market is expected to follow the soybean meal market and be weak [6]. 3.6 Oilseed Futures Prices - Closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates are provided for various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, CBOT yellow soybeans, and the offshore RMB [9]. 3.7 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Spreads, prices, and daily changes are provided for different combinations of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as spot prices and basis for soybean meal and rapeseed meal [10]. 3.8 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - Import costs, daily and weekly changes, and import profits are provided for US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The external market continues to focus on the U.S. soybean planting situation, and the weather speculation season will arrive after June. The domestic market is under continuous pressure from the actual supply, suppressing the prices of meal products. However, the bullish speculation on the weather market and the expectation of supply gaps due to the trade war cannot be falsified. Overall, the market is undervalued but waiting for a driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.0% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.9%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1785 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.106 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - **Trader Inventory Management**: When protein inventory is high and there are concerns about falling meal prices, traders can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 [3]. - **Feed Mill Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, feed mills can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 [3]. - **Oil Mill Inventory Management**: When there are concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, oil mills can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The external market focuses on U.S. soybean planting, and the weather speculation season is approaching in June. The domestic market is pressured by actual supply, but bullish expectations cannot be falsified, and the market is undervalued waiting for a driver [4]. 3.4利多解读 No relevant content provided. 3.5利空解读 - The basis on the spot side remains weak, and future spot pressure will be more reflected in the basis. The futures market is stronger than the spot market due to unfalsifiable bullish expectations [6]. - In terms of arrivals, there will be 13 million tons in May, 11.5 million tons in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. Supply is still abundant in the second and third quarters, but there is a gap in fourth - quarter purchases [7]. - After the end of the warrant registration month, the futures market rebounded slightly due to actual supply pressure. The monthly import volume of rapeseed vessels will be around 200,000 - 400,000 tons in the future [7]. 3.6 Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing prices and price changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts are provided, such as soybean meal 01 at 3013 (-0.3%), soybean meal 05 at 2710 (-0.22%), etc. [8]. 3.7 CBOT and Exchange Rate - The price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1061.75 (unchanged), and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1931 (up 0.21%) [11]. 3.8 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spread - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spreads between spot and futures prices, are provided, such as M01 - 05 at 303 (-3), RM01 - 05 at -7 (-1), etc. [12]. 3.9 Oilseed Import Cost and Crushing Profit - The import costs and profits of U.S. Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds are provided, such as the import cost of U.S. Gulf soybeans (23%) at 4463.7908 (up 19.22), and the import profit of Brazilian soybeans at 238.8728 (up 11.8264) [13].

Report Core View - After the China-US peace talks, there may be opportunities to buy ships for soybean imports in the fourth quarter, but the far - month crushing profit is still negative, so the ship - buying progress will be slow. The short - term trading is mainly based on sentiment. The outer - market logic lies in the game between supply (US soybean new - crop planting) and demand (export and crushing), while the inner - market trades the expectation of high supply pressure and accelerated oil - mill operation. In the long - term, the fundamental logic will return to US soybean new - crop planting and trade - war negotiations. In the near - term, after the release of spot pressure, a bullish view on the spread and the futures price is recommended [4]. - The outer - market cost valuation after the China - US peace talks supports the far - month prices, and there is a strong bullish sentiment for the far - month due to tariff disturbances and Brazilian export premiums. However, the subsequent soybean supply will be smooth, and the demand side is cautious [4][5][8]. Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for bean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 68.5%. The monthly price forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.3107 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.819 [3]. Hedging Strategies Trader Inventory Management - With high protein inventory and concerns about falling meal prices, traders can short M2509 bean - meal futures at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. Feed - mill Procurement Management - With low regular inventory, feed mills can buy M2509 bean - meal futures at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. Oil - mill Inventory Management - Fearing excessive imported soybeans and low bean - meal prices, oil mills can short M2509 bean - meal futures at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. Futures Price Quotes | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 2948 | 3 | 0.1% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2762 | - 43 | - 1.53% | | Bean Meal 09 | 2908 | 9 | 0.31% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2312 | - 11 | - 0.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2434 | - 41 | - 1.66% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2544 | - 7 | - 0.27% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1052.25 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.2404 | 0.0001 | 0% | [10] Spread and Basis Quotes | Spread/Basis | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 186 | 46 | | M05 - 09 | - 146 | - 52 | | M09 - 01 | - 40 | 6 | | RM01 - 05 | - 122 | 30 | | RM05 - 09 | - 110 | - 34 | | RM09 - 01 | 232 | 4 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3040 | - 120 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | 132 | - 129 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2467 | - 32 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 84 | - 20 | | Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 573 | - 120 | | Bean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 364 | 16 | [11] Import Cost and Crushing Profit | Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (47%) | 5337.1031 | 0 | 0.0098 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3675.98 | 35.33 | - 16.59 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (47%) | - 1597.5003 | - 6.8194 | 27.7825 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (47%) | - 1622.0881 | 0 | - 15.7357 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 251.4047 | - 0.0485 | 0.0142 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 30 | 18 | 22 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 22 | 15 | 18 | [12]

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: April 30, 2025 - Analysts: Zhou Yuyu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019884), Jin Wandong (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03118199) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the second quarter, the soybean supply pressure is being traded based on the expectation of higher supply compared to previous years and the acceleration of oil mill operations. Oil mills will focus on quickly realizing profits. In the long - term, after trading the reality of loose soybean meal supply, the fundamental logic will return to the new US soybean planting and trade war negotiations [4]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - Monthly price range forecast: The price of soybean meal is expected to be between 2,800 and 3,300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.7% and a historical percentile of 68.5% over 3 years. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to be between 2,450 and 2,750, with a current volatility of 0.3107 and a historical percentile of 0.819 over 3 years [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Trader Inventory Management**: For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3,300 - 3,400 [3]. - **Feed Mill Procurement Management**: Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2,850 - 3,000 [3]. - **Oil Mill Inventory Management**: Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal sales prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3,100 - 3,200 [3]. Core Contradictions - In the second quarter, the soybean supply pressure is being traded based on the expectation of higher supply compared to previous years and the acceleration of oil mill operations. In the long - term, after trading the reality of loose soybean meal supply, the fundamental logic will return to the new US soybean planting and trade war negotiations [4]. Bullish Factors - Port and oil mill soybean inventories continue to rise. With the increase in the operating rate and state reserve auctions, supply in some areas has gradually recovered. There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to tariff disturbances. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [11]. Bearish Factors - After the subsequent arrival of soybeans, the supply will be smoothly connected. The demand side is cautious about long - term stocking, and the near - term demand is mainly based on previous contracts and spot purchases. In April, about 850,000 tons of soybeans arrived at ports, but port clearance delays may affect the final oil mill crushing volume. In May, 1.15 million tons are expected, and in June, 1.05 million tons are expected. Feed mill physical inventories have reached an annual low [6][7][8]. Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3,008 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2,833 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2,964 | - 21 | - 0.7% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2,370 | - 29 | - 1.21% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2,472 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2,588 | - 53 | - 2.01% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1,052.5 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.286 | - 0.0022 | - 0.03% | [9][13] Spreads - **Soybean Meal Spreads**: M01 - 05 is 175 (up 26), M05 - 09 is - 131 (down 16), M09 - 01 is - 44 (down 10). The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 3,450 (down 50), and the basis is 486 (down 29). - **Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: RM01 - 05 is - 102 (up 23), RM05 - 09 is - 116 (up 1), RM09 - 01 is 218 (down 24). The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2,588 (down 10), and the basis is 0 (up 43). - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spot spread is 852 (down 50), and the futures spread is 376 (up 32) [14]. Import Costs and Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (47%) | 5,443.5196 | - 33.5155 | 0.1024 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3,742.75 | 9.06 | 74.44 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (47%) Cost Difference | - 1,629.3528 | - 3.2149 | - 21.5309 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (47%) | - 1,677.4796 | - 33.5155 | - 155.7915 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 236.9058 | - 57.233 | - 0.2086 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 15 | - 125 | - 83 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 9 | - 121 | - 52 | [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of soybeans in the second quarter has been continuously postponed due to the tightening of port clearance, but the subsequent main logic lies in the expectation of accelerated oil mill start - up under the high supply pressure compared to previous years. The current tight spot - market logic is expected to ease gradually after the May Day holiday, and oil mills will focus on quickly realizing profits. In the medium - to - long - term, after trading the reality of soybean meal 05, the fundamental logic will return to the new US soybean planting and trade - war negotiation situations [4] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the continuous decline of oil mill soybean meal inventory to a new low in recent years due to port clearance delays, strong long - term bullish sentiment under tariff disturbances, and the cost - side support of Brazilian export premiums for long - term contracts. Negative factors include smooth supply after subsequent soybean arrivals, cautious long - term stocking mentality on the demand side, large expected soybean arrivals in April, May, and June, relatively small supply pressure of rapeseed meal in the first half of the year but limited upside due to medium - to - high inventory, and a market situation of high prices but few transactions due to lack of bargaining power [5][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 68.5%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.3107 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.819 [3] 2. Oil Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) according to their inventory, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For feed mills with low regular purchase inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at present, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in purchase costs in advance [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) according to their own situation, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] 3. Oil Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3063 with no change; soybean meal 05 is 2984 with no change; soybean meal 09 is 3048, down 6 or 0.2%. The closing price of rapeseed meal 01 is 2432, up 11 or 0.45%; rapeseed meal 05 is 2572 with no change; rapeseed meal 09 is 2679, up 21 or 0.79%. The closing price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1051.5 with no change, and the offshore RMB is 7.3086, up 0.017 or 0.23% [9] 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Price Differences - The price differences between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices and basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian, and the spot and futures price differences between soybean and rapeseed meal are presented. For example, the M01 - 05 soybean meal price difference is 79, down 3; the RM01 - 05 rapeseed meal price difference is - 140, down 12 [10] 5. Oil Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds are provided. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (47%) is 5387.2134 yuan/ton, down 22.8153 yuan/ton; the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 345.3903 yuan/ton, up 46.0531 yuan/ton [11]