Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Externally, the weather in the late growth stage of US soybeans has turned slightly dry, and the market's sensitivity to the weather is gradually increasing. In the short term, Sino-US talks have intensified the expectation of a rebound in US soybeans. Domestically, the domestic soybean complex has weakened due to Sino-US talks, and attention should be paid to whether the supply-demand gap in the far - month contracts can open up upward space. The domestic rapeseed complex also has the expectation of Sino - Canadian talks and may show weak sentiment in the short term [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. The Sino - Canadian tariff expectation provides high support for the far - month contracts, but short - term sentiment may suppress the market due to the negotiation expectation. The timing of going long depends on subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [5]. - For soybean meal, the real - world pressure lies in the arrival of the inventory inflection point in September. After the trading logic shifts to far - month contracts, attention should be paid to the subsequent soybean supply. The supply of imported soybeans in China is at a seasonal high, the oil mill crush volume has slightly increased, and soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory seasonally. In terms of demand, the physical inventory has increased seasonally, and consumption remains at a rigid - demand level due to high livestock inventories. The expected soybean arrivals are 10 million tons in September, 9 million tons in October, and 8 million tons in November. Without purchasing US soybeans, a supply gap is expected after the first quarter of next year [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for soybean meal in the month is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.5% and a historical percentile of 19.8% over 3 years. The price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.4% and a historical percentile of 76.3% over 3 years [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise inventory to prevent inventory losses | M2601 | Sell | 25% | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance on the market to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising meal prices | M2601 | Buy | 50% | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise situation to prevent losses from imported inventory | M2601 | Sell | 50% | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3054 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2814 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3004 | - 18 | - 0.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2513 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2406 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2540 | - 10 | - 0.39% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1053 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1359 | 0.0324 | 0.46% | [7][9] 3.4 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 240 | 5 | | M05 - 09 | - 190 | 12 | | M09 - 01 | - 50 | - 17 | | RM01 - 05 | 107 | 18 | | RM05 - 09 | - 134 | - 8 | | RM09 - 01 | 27 | - 10 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 20 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 34 | 21 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2516 | - 8 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 3 | - 8 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 504 | 28 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 541 | - 1 | [10] 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4531.2634 | - 29.8378 | - 0.2236 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3992.81 | 19.18 | - 58.48 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 736.7908 | - 1.8538 | 68.0082 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 589.4934 | - 29.8378 | 424.5052 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 154.0428 | 0 | 0.4671 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 779 | 55 | 166 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 870 | 55 | 185 | [11]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The weather in the late growth stage of US soybeans has turned slightly dry, and the market's sensitivity to the weather has gradually recovered. In the short term, Sino-US talks have increased the expectation of a rebound in US soybeans. The domestic soybean system has weakened due to Sino-US talks in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the supply-demand gap in the far - month can open up the upward space. The domestic rapeseed system also has the expectation of Sino - Canadian talks and may show weak sentiment in the short term [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract price from the cost side. The Sino - Canadian tariff expectation continues to give high support to the far - month contract, but due to the recent negotiation expectation, the short - term sentiment may further suppress the market. The timing of going long needs to pay attention to the subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [5]. - The real pressure on the soybean meal side focuses on the arrival of the inventory inflection point in September. After the trading logic of the market switches to the far - month, attention should be paid to the subsequent soybean supply. The supply of imported soybean raw materials in the country continues to be at a seasonal high, the oil mill's crushing volume has slightly increased, and soybean meal continues the seasonal inventory accumulation trend. In terms of arrivals, it is expected to be 10 million tons in September, 9 million tons in October, and 8 million tons in November. Without purchasing US soybeans, the subsequent soybean arrivals are expected to face a gap after the first quarter of next year [6]. 2. Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about the decline in meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 [3]. - For feed mills with low procurement inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 [3]. - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal sales prices, they can short soybean meal futures according to their own situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3055, up 16 (0.53%); soybean meal 05 is 2820, up 6 (0.21%); soybean meal 09 is 3022, up 33 (1.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2513, up 30 (1.21%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2424, up 16 (0.66%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2550, up 8 (0.31%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1048.25, unchanged; the offshore RMB is 7.1214, down 0.0333 (-0.47%) [7][9]. Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread is 225, up 9; RM01 - 05 is 75, up 20; M05 - 09 is - 175, down 12; RM05 - 09 is - 134, down 8; M09 - 01 is - 50, up 3; RM09 - 01 is 59, down 12; the soybean meal Rizhao spot price is 3000, unchanged, and the basis is - 39, up 6; the rapeseed meal Fujian spot price is 2534, down 21, and the basis is 51, down 3; the soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 466, up 21, and the futures spread is 556, up 12 [10]. Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4539.2712 yuan/ton, up 445.131 yuan/day and down 0.1941 yuan/week; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3973.63 yuan/ton, down 2.21 yuan/day and down 66.71 yuan/week; the cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 738.0929 yuan/ton, up 61.6559 yuan/day and up 57.307 yuan/week; the import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 604.8362 yuan/ton, up 445.131 yuan/day and up 359.0468 yuan/week; the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 120.0737 yuan/ton, down 17.0232 yuan/day and down 0.0282 yuan/week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 724 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/day and up 93 yuan/week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 815 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/day and up 121 yuan/week [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The key focus for the external market is the export of new - crop US soybeans to China due to the dry planting weather in the US. For the domestic soybean market, it's about whether the supply - demand gap in the far - month contracts will open up the upside space. The domestic rapeseed market still has long - position value after a short - term pullback due to China - Canada anti - dumping duties [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. For rapeseed meal, although the near - month is under spot pressure, the far - month still has long - position value considering potential supply shortages [5]. - The trading logic of domestic soybean meal is shifting to the far - month contracts, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point in September. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a volatility of 12.7% and a historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3160, down 1 (-0.03%); soybean meal 05 is 2860, up 16 (0.56%); soybean meal 09 is 3116, up 3 (0.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2627, up 23 (0.88%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2517, up 12 (0.48%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2667, down 11 (-0.41%) [7]. 4. CBOT and Exchange Rate - The price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1033.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1865, unchanged (0%) [9]. 5. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices and basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian, and the spreads between soybean and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, M01 - 05 spread is 300, down 17 [10]. 6. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4884.6258 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and 0.0803 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import cost is 4061.54 yuan/ton, down 16.26 yuan/day and 56.14 yuan/week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 847.4358 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and down 133.8179 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import profit is 126.2342 yuan/ton, up 10.3514 yuan/day and 0.0394 yuan/week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed for the futures and spot markets is also provided [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino-US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Future focus should be on China's purchases and weather conditions in US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean market has seen a significant decline due to the soybean meal feed reduction substitution plan. The far-month basis quote has weakened, and the near-month warehouse receipt pressure has returned, leading to a correction of the basis. The rapeseed market has followed the decline of soybean meal. In the short term, the contradictions have returned to reality, and the far-month supply-demand gap remains the key focus for layout [4]. - Positive factors include the expectation of Sino-US peace talks supporting the US soybean market, strong bullish sentiment in the far month due to weather speculation, and the Brazilian export premium supporting the far-month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - Negative factors include the supply pressure on the spot side mainly reflected in the basis, the need to focus on the departure of near-month long funds for the return of the futures and spot markets, the expected soybean arrivals showing a gap after December, and the impact of the recent Indian rapeseed issue on the upward momentum, along with the lack of elasticity in the market's repeated pricing of the potential Sino-Canadian and Sino-Australian talks [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1266 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0718 [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about falling meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Futures Price - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal futures contracts are as follows: M01 is 3059, down 57 (-1.83%); M05 is 2753, down 16 (-0.58%); M09 is 3025, down 70 (-2.26%). For rapeseed meal futures, RM01 is 2412, down 32 (-1.31%); RM05 is 2371, down 12 (-0.5%); RM09 is 2682, down 76 (-2.76%). CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1022.5 with no change, and the offshore RMB closed at 7.1518, down 0.0174 (-0.24%) [7][9]. 3.4 Spread - The spreads and daily changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: M01 - 05 is 347, up 3; M05 - 09 is -326, unchanged; M09 - 01 is -21, down 3; RM01 - 05 is 61, up 1; RM05 - 09 is -375, down 16; RM09 - 01 is 314, up 15. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2860, down 60, and the basis is -175, up 11. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2630, down 32, and the basis is -128, down 54. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 290, up 52, and the futures spread is 337, down 13 [10]. 3.5 Import Cost and Profit - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4766.8495 yuan/ton, up 8.7627 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 0.004 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3938.83 yuan/ton, up 12.66 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 21.8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is -843.5845 yuan/ton, up 8.7627 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 7.0881 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 173.8811 yuan/ton, up 40.4599 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 0.9124 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 238 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 147 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 220 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 154 yuan/ton from the previous week [11].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino-US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Attention should be paid to China's purchases and weather in US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean complex is expected to continue the positive spread logic, and the rapeseed complex is strong due to short - term warehouse receipt supply - demand mismatch. Short - term contradictions cannot drive the market to strengthen significantly, and the far - month supply - demand gap is the focus for layout [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include Sino - US peace talks expectations, strong far - month bullish sentiment in the weather market, and cost support from Brazil's export premium for far - month contracts. Bearish factors involve spot supply pressure on the basis, expected soybean arrivals, and the impact of the Indian rapeseed issue and potential supply recovery of rapeseed [5][6]. 2. Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, it is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1266 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0718 [3]. Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory can short M2509 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2509 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans can short M2509 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts are as follows: Soybean meal 01 closed at 3116, up 12 (0.39%); Soybean meal 05 at 2769, up 9 (0.33%); Soybean meal 09 at 3095, up 9 (0.29%); Rapeseed meal 01 at 2444, up 7 (0.29%); Rapeseed meal 05 at 2383, up 6 (0.25%); Rapeseed meal 09 at 2758, up 22 (0.8%) [7][9]. Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the basis and spot spreads, are presented in the report. For example, the M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 347, up 3 [10]. Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4766.8495 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.7627 and a weekly decrease of 0.004. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 173.8811 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40.4599 and a weekly increase of 0.9124. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed is also provided [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino - US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Future focus should be on China's purchases and weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean complex is expected to continue the positive spread logic, and the rapeseed complex is strong due to short - term warehouse receipt supply - demand mismatch. Short - term contradictions cannot drive the market to strengthen significantly, and the long - term supply - demand gap is the key for layout [4]. - Positive factors include the expectation of Sino - US talks supporting the US soybean market, strong long - term bullish sentiment under weather speculation, and Brazilian export premiums supporting long - term contract prices from the cost side [5]. - Negative factors involve supply pressure on the spot side mainly reflected in the basis, the need to monitor the departure of long - position funds in the near - term contracts for futures - spot convergence, expected soybean arrivals with a gap after December, and the impact of the Indian rapeseed meal issue and potential Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian talks on the market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 14.1%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1642 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.2531 [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Traders**: With high protein inventory and concerns about falling meal prices, they are advised to short 25% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Feed Mills**: With low regular inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, they are recommended to buy 50% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - **Oil Mills**: Worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they should short 50% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover costs [3]. 3.2 Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: The closing prices of soybean meal 01, 05, and 09 are 3104, 2760, and 3086 respectively, with daily increases of 17, 8, and 17, and daily growth rates of 0.55%, 0.29%, and 0.55% [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The closing prices of rapeseed meal 01, 05, and 09 are 2437, 2377, and 2736 respectively, with daily increases of 22, 11, and 9, and daily growth rates of 0.91%, 0.46%, and 0.33% [7][9]. - **Others**: CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1026.75 with no change, and the offshore RMB was at 7.1714, down 0.0071 or 0.1% [9]. 3.3 Spreads - **Soybean Meal Spreads**: M01 - 05 is 344 (up 9), M05 - 09 is - 326 (down 9), M09 - 01 is - 18 (unchanged). The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2900 (unchanged), and the basis is - 186 (down 17) [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: RM01 - 05 is 60 (up 11), RM05 - 09 is - 359 (up 2), RM09 - 01 is 299 (down 13). The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2590 (down 84), and the basis is - 137 (down 89) [10]. - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: The spot spread is 310 (unchanged), and the futures spread is 350 (up 8) [10]. 3.4 Import Costs and Pressing Profits - **Import Costs**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4770.043 yuan/ton (up 51.5218), and that of Brazilian soybeans is 3927.66 yuan/ton (down 29.05) [11]. - **Profits**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 853.473 yuan/ton (up 51.5218), the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 133.4212 yuan/ton (down 20.3779), the import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 301 yuan/ton (down 4), and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 292 yuan/ton (down 8) [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino-US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is still a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and the overall meal prices will reach an inflection point this year. From a valuation perspective, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and with the expectation of a resilient Brazilian premium, the far - month futures prices are expected to receive marginal upward driving forces [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 13.2%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1637 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.25 [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs | M2509 | Sell | 25% | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | To prevent rising meal prices from increasing procurement costs, buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2509 | Buy | 50% | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | To prevent losses from excessive imported inventory, short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and cover production costs | M2509 | Sell | 50% | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino - US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and meal prices will reach an inflection point. The downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and far - month futures prices may rise [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors No relevant content provided. 3.5 Bearish Factors - The supply pressure at the spot end is mainly reflected in the basis. The futures market lacks short - selling pressure due to the roll - over of hedging positions. - The arrivals in July, August, and September are 11.5 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10 million tons respectively, with a gap after December. - The rapeseed meal inventory is increasing slightly, the near - month futures warehouse receipt pressure is easing, and there are short - term supply rhythm issues. The market has rebounded. The market has repeatedly priced in the information of Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian meetings, and attention should be paid to the recovery of rapeseed supply [6]. 3.6 Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3087 | 9 | 0.29% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2752 | 8 | 0.29% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3069 | 13 | 0.43% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2415 | 21 | 0.88% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2366 | 14 | 0.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2727 | 5 | 0.18% | [7] 3.7 CBOT and Exchange Rate - CBOT yellow soybeans are at 1035 with no change (0%). The offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1785, down 0.0001 (0%) [10]. 3.8 Spreads - The spreads between different soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as the spreads between spot and futures prices and basis are provided in the report [11]. 3.9 Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4809.2202 | - 41.4821 | 0.0444 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3956.71 | 21.56 | 62.69 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 781.987 | - 5.4181 | - 21.3411 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 903.0352 | - 41.4821 | - 78.2827 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 153.7991 | 0.0531 | 0.1373 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 301 | - 4 | - 3 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 292 | - 8 | 0 | [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q3, the price of protein meal will continue to be constrained by the absolute supply of raw materials, showing a weak range - bound volatile trend. With the smooth planting of new US soybean crops, there is limited upward driving force for the domestic soybean meal futures market. However, the near - term soybean meal futures price has basically squeezed out the trade - war premium and is gradually pricing in the Q3 supply pressure. There is still a gap in Q4 soybean purchases. After trading the arrival volume and inventory pressure in Q3, there may be an inflection point in the year. The low physical inventory of feed mills on the demand side also implies potential bullish factors. In terms of valuation, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums, the far - month futures price is expected to have marginal upward driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.8%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1852 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.385 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in purchasing costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low sales prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Q3 protein meal prices are constrained by raw material supply, showing a weak range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal futures market has limited upward momentum. The near - term price has squeezed out the trade - war premium and is pricing in Q3 supply pressure. There may be an inflection point after Q3, and the low inventory of feed mills is a potential bullish factor. The far - month price may have upward driving force due to limited downside of US soybeans and resilient Brazilian premiums [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - After China - US talks, there is strong cost - valuation support for the far - month contracts from the external market [5]. - Bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts is strong during the weather - related speculation period [5]. - Brazilian export premiums support the far - month contract prices from the cost end [5]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - Supply - side pressure is the main factor suppressing the spot market. As the soybean meal 07 contract approaches the delivery month, the spot pressure will be reflected in the near - month futures, leading to weak performance of the 09 contract. Soybean supply is abundant, oil mill operating rates are rising, and some areas are urging提货 [6]. - In terms of arrivals, there will be 11.5 million tons in July and 11 million tons in August. Supply in Q3 is still abundant, and the Q4 gap depends on China - US relations [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted slowly, and adding rapeseed meal lacks cost - effectiveness for downstream users. The market's reaction to the WTO's investigation of China - Canada tariff issues is inelastic, and the rapeseed meal market is expected to follow the soybean meal market and be weak [6]. 3.6 Oilseed Futures Prices - Closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates are provided for various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, CBOT yellow soybeans, and the offshore RMB [9]. 3.7 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Spreads, prices, and daily changes are provided for different combinations of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as spot prices and basis for soybean meal and rapeseed meal [10]. 3.8 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - Import costs, daily and weekly changes, and import profits are provided for US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The external market continues to focus on the U.S. soybean planting situation, and the weather speculation season will arrive after June. The domestic market is under continuous pressure from the actual supply, suppressing the prices of meal products. However, the bullish speculation on the weather market and the expectation of supply gaps due to the trade war cannot be falsified. Overall, the market is undervalued but waiting for a driving force [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.0% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.9%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1785 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.106 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - **Trader Inventory Management**: When protein inventory is high and there are concerns about falling meal prices, traders can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 [3]. - **Feed Mill Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, feed mills can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 [3]. - **Oil Mill Inventory Management**: When there are concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, oil mills can short soybean meal futures (M2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The external market focuses on U.S. soybean planting, and the weather speculation season is approaching in June. The domestic market is pressured by actual supply, but bullish expectations cannot be falsified, and the market is undervalued waiting for a driver [4]. 3.4利多解读 No relevant content provided. 3.5利空解读 - The basis on the spot side remains weak, and future spot pressure will be more reflected in the basis. The futures market is stronger than the spot market due to unfalsifiable bullish expectations [6]. - In terms of arrivals, there will be 13 million tons in May, 11.5 million tons in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. Supply is still abundant in the second and third quarters, but there is a gap in fourth - quarter purchases [7]. - After the end of the warrant registration month, the futures market rebounded slightly due to actual supply pressure. The monthly import volume of rapeseed vessels will be around 200,000 - 400,000 tons in the future [7]. 3.6 Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing prices and price changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts are provided, such as soybean meal 01 at 3013 (-0.3%), soybean meal 05 at 2710 (-0.22%), etc. [8]. 3.7 CBOT and Exchange Rate - The price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1061.75 (unchanged), and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1931 (up 0.21%) [11]. 3.8 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spread - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spreads between spot and futures prices, are provided, such as M01 - 05 at 303 (-3), RM01 - 05 at -7 (-1), etc. [12]. 3.9 Oilseed Import Cost and Crushing Profit - The import costs and profits of U.S. Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds are provided, such as the import cost of U.S. Gulf soybeans (23%) at 4463.7908 (up 19.22), and the import profit of Brazilian soybeans at 238.8728 (up 11.8264) [13].

Report Core View - After the China-US peace talks, there may be opportunities to buy ships for soybean imports in the fourth quarter, but the far - month crushing profit is still negative, so the ship - buying progress will be slow. The short - term trading is mainly based on sentiment. The outer - market logic lies in the game between supply (US soybean new - crop planting) and demand (export and crushing), while the inner - market trades the expectation of high supply pressure and accelerated oil - mill operation. In the long - term, the fundamental logic will return to US soybean new - crop planting and trade - war negotiations. In the near - term, after the release of spot pressure, a bullish view on the spread and the futures price is recommended [4]. - The outer - market cost valuation after the China - US peace talks supports the far - month prices, and there is a strong bullish sentiment for the far - month due to tariff disturbances and Brazilian export premiums. However, the subsequent soybean supply will be smooth, and the demand side is cautious [4][5][8]. Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for bean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 68.5%. The monthly price forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.3107 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.819 [3]. Hedging Strategies Trader Inventory Management - With high protein inventory and concerns about falling meal prices, traders can short M2509 bean - meal futures at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. Feed - mill Procurement Management - With low regular inventory, feed mills can buy M2509 bean - meal futures at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. Oil - mill Inventory Management - Fearing excessive imported soybeans and low bean - meal prices, oil mills can short M2509 bean - meal futures at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. Futures Price Quotes | Variety | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 2948 | 3 | 0.1% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2762 | - 43 | - 1.53% | | Bean Meal 09 | 2908 | 9 | 0.31% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2312 | - 11 | - 0.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2434 | - 41 | - 1.66% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2544 | - 7 | - 0.27% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1052.25 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.2404 | 0.0001 | 0% | [10] Spread and Basis Quotes | Spread/Basis | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 186 | 46 | | M05 - 09 | - 146 | - 52 | | M09 - 01 | - 40 | 6 | | RM01 - 05 | - 122 | 30 | | RM05 - 09 | - 110 | - 34 | | RM09 - 01 | 232 | 4 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3040 | - 120 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | 132 | - 129 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2467 | - 32 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 84 | - 20 | | Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 573 | - 120 | | Bean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 364 | 16 | [11] Import Cost and Crushing Profit | Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (47%) | 5337.1031 | 0 | 0.0098 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3675.98 | 35.33 | - 16.59 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (47%) | - 1597.5003 | - 6.8194 | 27.7825 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (47%) | - 1622.0881 | 0 | - 15.7357 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 251.4047 | - 0.0485 | 0.0142 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 30 | 18 | 22 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 22 | 15 | 18 | [12]