《煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依 旧—行业周报》-2025.12.14 《重视煤价四段轮推断，稳煤价依旧 —行业周报》-2025.12.7 《煤价第四目标上穿过程兑现，稳价 逻辑依旧—行业周报》-2025.11.30 张绪成（分析师） 程镱（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 煤炭 2025 年 12 月 21 日 重视煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依旧 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 证书编号：S0790520020003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：重视煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依旧 动力煤方面：动力煤价格小跌，截至 12 月 19 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 703 元/吨，环比下降 50 元/吨，广州港价格为 780 元/吨，前期已经完成了我们估算的 第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 元区间。目前回调至煤电盈利均分的 750 元价格以 下，我们预计未 ...

南华期货钢材产业周报 ——下方有支撑，上方有压力，低位震荡 陈敏涛（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022731） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周在国资委会议再次提及了反内卷的有关消息、国家发改委提出的关于推动煤炭清洁高效使用文件、以及 多部门围绕提振消费、培育壮大新动能等密集发生的多重利好下，焦煤价格触底后大幅反弹，以及铁矿价格 的强势，直接带动了成材价格的反弹，成材价格反弹到压力位附近后呈现震荡趋势。基本面方面，成材自身 的矛盾基本面不大，整体维持减产和去库的趋势，但由于高炉和电炉的利润近期回升较多，成材减产的力度 可能减弱，上周螺纹的产量微增，近期高炉的检修量较多，热卷减产速度加快，上周热卷产量环比-5.4%，但 若未来高炉的检修量下降高炉和电炉利润维持高位，成材的供应压力可能增加；需求方面，成材维持淡季弱 需求的状态。炉料端，短期炉料对成材有成本支撑，铁矿短期偏强势，虽然港口库存呈现累库状态，但结构 上钢厂库存相较于往年偏低，有补库需求的支撑，但铁水维持减产限制铁矿上涨高度，上方亦有压力。焦煤 产量环比回升，矿山库存和 ...

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 21 日 冷空气影响仍存，成本支撑下供给 预计收紧，预计煤价有望企稳 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.12.13-2025.12.20） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 12 月 19 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 506、600、703 元/吨，均环比下跌 42 元/吨。供给端，据 中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 163.96 万吨，环比上周减少 17.5 万 吨，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal market is expected to stabilize as supply tightens and demand rebounds, driven by seasonal factors and production adjustments [7][8]. - China Shenhua's acquisition of significant assets is projected to enhance its coal production capacity and resource reserves substantially [8]. - The investment strategy suggests a focus on undervalued stocks with high dividend yields and growth potential in the coal sector [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,875.44 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,839.35 billion yuan [2]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - Recent trends indicate a divergence in coal prices, with coking coal stabilizing upwards while thermal coal prices are under pressure due to weak demand [7][8]. - As of December 19, 2025, the price of thermal coal at the port was 708 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 42 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coal production in November 2025 was 42,679 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% but a month-on-month increase of 4.93% [7]. - The report highlights that the demand for electricity coal has been affected by warmer weather, leading to a decrease in daily coal consumption [7]. 4. Key Company Insights - China Shenhua's acquisition plan involves purchasing multiple coal and energy assets for a total consideration of 1,335.98 billion yuan, significantly increasing its coal production capacity by approximately 230 million tons per year [8]. - Other companies such as Yancoal Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal are also highlighted for their growth potential and dividend policies [13]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a strategy of buying undervalued stocks with strong dividend yields, such as China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, and Xinji Energy, while also focusing on companies with significant production capacity growth [8][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [14] Core Insights - The new standards for clean and efficient coal utilization have been released, marking a shift towards "structural optimization and quality enhancement" in the coal industry [1] - The policy emphasizes the importance of clean and efficient coal utilization as a key direction for high-quality development in the coal industry and a crucial support for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [3] - The updated standards expand the coverage to include new areas such as coal-to-natural gas and coal-to-oil, reflecting a shift from mere fuel cleanliness to high-value material utilization [3] - The implementation mechanism has been strengthened, with a clear three-year renovation timeline and elimination mechanism for projects that fail to meet the baseline standards [3] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The new standards are a systematic upgrade from the previous version, with three core changes: expanded coverage, elevated standard levels, and a hardened implementation mechanism [3] - The benchmark levels are aligned with "domestic and international advanced levels" and the "strictest pollutant emission requirements," ensuring continuous updates in line with national policies [3] Industry Development - The coal industry is undergoing energy-saving and carbon reduction efforts, with increasing constraints on targets [4] - The coal power sector has seen a gradual decrease in average coal consumption per kilowatt-hour over the past several five-year plans, indicating ongoing improvements in carbon emissions [4] Investment Opportunities - Key investment directions include companies involved in flue gas treatment, waste heat recovery, advanced carbon capture technologies, recycling of coal gangue, and carbon emission monitoring [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal supply is slightly loose, with mines accumulating inventory and washing plants and ports reducing inventory. Independent coking enterprises' willingness to replenish coking coal has weakened again, while steel mills have slightly replenished their coking coal inventory. Coke production has slightly declined, iron - water production still has room to fall, and the third round of coke price cuts has started. The double - coke market is affected by both policy and actual supply - demand. The policy is warming, but the actual supply is loose and demand is weak, and the market fluctuates within a range [5][32][35] Summary by Directory Report Summary - From January 1, 2026, Indonesia will levy export tariffs on coal, with the rate expected to be between 1% - 5% [5] - The new policy emphasizes and improves the benchmark level of the "coal washing" field, which will make the demand for high - quality coking raw coal more rigid and increase the compliance production cost of coking enterprises [5] - In 2025, global coal demand will reach a record high of 8.85 billion tons, an increase of 0.5%, but is expected to decline by 2030 [5] - The coking coal supply is slightly loose, mines are accumulating inventory, and washing plants and ports are reducing inventory. Independent coking enterprises' replenishment willingness has weakened, while steel mills have slightly replenished inventory. Coke production has slightly declined, iron - water production still has room to fall, and the third round of coke price cuts has started [5] - Recently, the domestic policy has been warming, and the double - coke futures market has rebounded, but the actual supply - demand situation restricts the rebound space. The winter - storage expectation of coking coal still exists [5] Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors: limited increase in domestic coking coal supply, and warming policies in the domestic demand sector [8] - Bearish factors: high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance, difficult inventory reduction of coking coal, and seasonal decline in iron - water and downstream demand pressure [8] Data Analysis - Coking coal supply: As of the week of December 19, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.62%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%, and the daily output decreased by 0.75 tons to 75.75 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample washing plants was 37.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%, and the daily output decreased by 0.63 tons to 27.29 tons. As of December 13, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port was 1.12887 million tons, remaining at a high level [10] - Coking coal inventory: As of the week of December 19, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.7277 million tons, an increase of 174,600 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample washing plants was 3.2728 million tons, a decrease of 50,900 tons; the port coking coal inventory was 2.8617 million tons, a decrease of 213,300 tons [15] - Independent coking enterprises: As of December 19, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 10.3629 million tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons. The available inventory days were 12.37 days, an increase of 0.18 days. The coke inventory was 911,000 tons, an increase of 108,800 tons. The coking coal replenishment willingness has weakened [18] - Steel mills: As of December 19, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8.0499 million tons, an increase of 103,400 tons. The available inventory days were 13.02 days, an increase of 0.2 days. The coke inventory was 6.3373 million tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons, and the available days were 11.72 days, an increase of 0.06 days [22] - Coke production: As of December 19, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.05%, a decrease of 1.11% from the previous period, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 98,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.73%, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period, and the daily coke output was 464,900 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons. Due to environmental protection restrictions in northern regions, the coking enterprises' production reduction range is 20% - 35% [24] - Coke consumption: As of the week of December 19, China's coke consumption was 1.0195 million tons, a decrease of 119,000 tons. The daily iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.2655 million tons, a decrease of 265,000 tons. Iron - water production is expected to continue to decline, and the subsequent demand for coke is limited [26] - Coke price cut: As of December 19, the average profit per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises was 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from the previous period. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 35.93%, the same as the previous period. Due to the firmness of raw material prices such as iron ore, steel enterprises' profit improvement is limited, and the third round of coke price cuts has started. Some steel mills in Xingtai, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Tangshan will lower the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on December 22, 2025 [28] - Double - coke futures - spot basis structure: The coking coal futures market has stopped falling, and the coke market has recovered part of the price - cut range [30] 后市研判 - The domestic policy is warming, which stabilizes market sentiment and reverses the pessimistic expectation of unlimited coal supply growth. However, the actual supply - demand pattern is under pressure. The supply is loose, the downstream replenishment is weak, and the market fluctuates within a range between the "policy bottom" and the "demand ceiling" [32] - The core of the coke market logic is the interweaving of the "supply - demand double - weak" pattern caused by environmental protection restrictions and the "price game" under the profit squeeze of downstream steel mills. The coke price follows the cost - end coking coal and has limited upward elasticity [35]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has revised and issued the "Benchmark and Baseline Levels for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal (2025 Edition)" to enhance the clean and efficient utilization of coal in line with national policies and the "dual carbon" goals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy and Framework - The "2025 Edition" aims to strengthen the leading role of benchmark levels and the constraint role of baseline levels in the coal industry, promoting a transition from low-end to high-end coal products [1][3]. - The document reflects the urgency of updating standards for clean and efficient coal utilization, as the proportion of coal in total energy consumption is projected to decrease from 56.7% in 2020 to 53.2% in 2024 [2][3]. Group 2: Key Updates and Adjustments - Compared to the previous "2022 Edition," the "2025 Edition" expands the applicable scope by adding two new areas: coal-to-natural gas and coal-to-oil, while also introducing new efficiency indicators for existing sectors [5][6]. - The updated indicators reflect recent national standards and policies, enhancing the constraints and guiding roles of the benchmark and baseline levels [6][7]. Group 3: Implementation and Support - The "2025 Edition" encourages enterprises to upgrade projects to meet benchmark levels, with a focus on categorizing management for new and existing projects [7][8]. - Specific timelines for upgrades are set, generally not exceeding three years, with a clear directive for projects failing to meet standards to be phased out [7][8]. - Financial and technical support mechanisms will be enhanced to facilitate the transition to cleaner and more efficient coal utilization, including funding, financial policies, and preferential policies for equipment and technology upgrades [8].

Core Viewpoint - The policy aims to promote the coal industry from low-end to high-end, transitioning coal products from primary fuels to high-value products, with stricter standards for coal consumption in power generation by 2025 [1] Group 1: Policy Impact on Coal Supply Structure - The policy encourages enterprises to orderly conduct clean and efficient coal utilization transformations without affecting electricity and heat supply, indicating that energy security remains a priority [2] - The enhancement of clean and efficient coal utilization requirements is expected to optimize the coal supply structure further [1][2] Group 2: Changes in Coal Import Structure - From January to October, China's broad power coal imports decreased by 11% year-on-year to 294 million tons, with lignite imports down by 4% to 144 million tons, maintaining a high proportion of 49% in total imports [3] - The policy is anticipated to shift coal imports towards higher calorific value and better quality products [3] Group 3: Constraints on Indonesian Coal Imports - The import volume of Indonesian coal, primarily low-calorific lignite, may face constraints, while the demand for high-calorific coal from Australia and Russia is expected to increase [4] - However, the increase in Australian coal supply is limited, and the high-quality coal from Russia is constrained by railway capacity, leading to a potential tightening of the high-calorific coal market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the issuance of the "Key Areas Benchmark and Baseline Levels for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal (2025 Edition)" by multiple Chinese government agencies to promote the coal industry's transition from low-end to high-end and from primary fuel to high-value products [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The policy encourages enterprises in the coal industry to upgrade and transform projects based on actual conditions and long-term development [1] - It implements classified management for new coal development projects and eligible existing projects, aiming to achieve benchmark levels for clean and efficient utilization [1] - Existing projects below the baseline level are guided to undertake orderly upgrades to enhance clean and efficient utilization, with a focus on reducing pollution and carbon emissions [1] Group 2: Timeframe and Requirements - The policy sets clear deadlines for projects requiring upgrades, generally not exceeding three years, while ensuring that electricity and heat supply are not affected [1] - Annual plans must be established to upgrade to above baseline levels within the specified timeframe, with projects failing to meet deadlines subject to elimination [1] Group 3: Technology Promotion - There is an emphasis on strengthening the research and application of clean and efficient coal utilization technologies [1] - The policy promotes the evaluation of clean and efficient coal utilization projects and actively supports the construction of technology upgrade projects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 Edition of Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal" has been jointly issued by six departments, replacing the 2022 version, to enhance energy efficiency and environmental standards in coal utilization [1][2] Group 1: Policy Updates - The new edition aims to improve the energy efficiency and pollution control levels in coal utilization, with a target to reduce the share of coal in total energy consumption from 56.7% in 2020 to 53.2% by 2024 [1] - The "2025 Edition" expands the scope of applicable areas, adding two new fields: coal-to-natural gas and coal-to-oil, in addition to the previously defined nine key areas [2] Group 2: Implementation Guidelines - New coal development projects and existing projects with conditions are encouraged to reach benchmark levels for clean and efficient utilization [2] - Existing projects that fall below the baseline levels are guided to undertake orderly upgrades for cleaner and more efficient coal utilization, with a focus on reducing pollution and carbon emissions [2] Group 3: Standards and Indicators - The "2025 Edition" revises the indicator levels based on the latest national standards and policies from the past three years, updating relevant indicators in areas such as coal-fired power generation and coal-based methanol [2] - The updated standards reflect new requirements and aim to strengthen regulatory constraints and guidance in the coal sector [2]