Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate and rise in the short - term, with the Shanghai copper main contract running in the range of 77,500 - 79,600 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 dollars/ton [2]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward trend in the short - term, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2,480 - 2,620 dollars/ton [4]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weak due to weak downstream consumption [6]. - Zinc prices have a large downward risk, but the start time of the market is uncertain [7]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton in the LME market [9]. - Nickel prices may fall, and it is advisable to short at high prices, with the short - term Shanghai nickel main contract running in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices may face selling pressure and need to be vigilant against weakening risks, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange main contract running in the range of 58,000 - 59,600 yuan/ton [12]. - Alumina prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton [15]. - The subsequent trend of the stainless - steel market depends on whether the downstream demand can start substantial restocking [17]. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, LME copper rose slightly by 0.13% to 9,660 dollars/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,380 yuan/ton [2]. - Three major exchanges' inventories decreased by 10,000 tons, with SHFE inventory down 1,000 tons to 100,000 tons, LME inventory down 15,000 tons to 99,000 tons, and COMEX inventory up 7,000 tons to 183,000 tons [2]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 4,000 tons, and copper spot imports had a large loss [2]. - LME cash/3M premium widened to 275 dollars/ton, and domestic basis quotes rose after the contract change [2]. - The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to 920 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises declined [2]. - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and demand improved slightly [2]. Aluminum - Last week, LME aluminum rose 2.34% to 2,561 dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract rose 0.12% [4]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline, with social inventory at 449,000 tons (down 11,000 tons week - on - week) and bonded area inventory at 114,000 tons (down 5,000 tons week - on - week) [4]. - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 343,000 tons, and Cash/3M turned to a premium [4]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production continued to rise slightly, and aluminum plant inventory declined slightly [4]. - The operating rate of aluminum products fluctuated and declined, with some products' operating rates falling and others remaining stable [4]. Lead - 3S fell 10 dollars to 1,982 dollars/ton, and the total position was 153,500 lots [6]. - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,725 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton [6]. - Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 51,200 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 287,400 tons [6]. - The export growth rate of lead - acid batteries declined significantly, and downstream consumption remained weak [6]. - The profit of primary lead smelting increased, and the operating rate rose to a historical high of about 70%, while the profit of secondary lead remained low [6]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.06% to 21,678 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 259,300 lots [7]. - LME zinc 3S rose 8 dollars to 2,625 dollars/ton, and the total position was 206,400 lots [7]. - SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,030 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied [7]. - SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 8,700 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,600 tons [7]. - LME zinc ingot inventory was 127,500 tons, and the cancelled warrant was 33,500 tons [7]. - The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, but the increase in social inventory is not obvious [7]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was tight, and domestic tin ore imports in June were expected to decrease by 500 - 1,000 tons [8]. - The raw material inventory of smelters in main production areas was generally less than 30 days, and some enterprises carried out maintenance or production cuts [8]. - Terminal enterprises entered the seasonal off - season, and orders for consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and photovoltaic declined [8]. - After tin prices rose to around 260,000 yuan/ton, downstream procurement willingness weakened [9]. - As of June 20, the social inventory of tin ingots in major markets decreased by 42 tons to 8,905 tons [9]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices were weak. The monthly output of refined nickel remained high [10]. - Spot demand was weak, and market trading was light [10]. - The visible inventory of domestic + LME increased by 6,165 tons to 241,000 tons [10]. - The supply of nickel ore was tight in the short - term due to the rainy season, but it was expected to ease after the rainy season [10]. - The price of nickel iron was weak in June, and some production lines switched to producing nickel matte [10]. Lithium Carbonate - On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 59,777 yuan, down 0.31% from the previous trading day and 1.09% for the week [12]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.17% [12]. - The LC2509 contract closed at 58,900 yuan, down 1.93% from the previous day and 1.51% for the week [12]. - The supply clearance was slow, and domestic lithium salt production returned to a high level [12]. - Downstream entered the traditional mid - year off - season, and the marginal increase in demand declined [12]. Alumina - On June 20, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.31% to 2,883 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading decreased by 12,000 lots to 435,000 lots [14]. - Spot prices in some regions decreased, and the Shandong spot price was at a premium to the 07 contract [15]. - The MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at 367 dollars/ton, and the import window was closed [15]. - The futures warehouse receipt decreased by 6,300 tons to 42,900 tons [15]. - The price of bauxite in Guinea and Australia remained stable [15]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,505 yuan/ton, down 0.56% for the day, and the unilateral position increased by 5,358 lots to 279,900 lots [17]. - Spot prices in some markets decreased, and the futures inventory decreased by 780 tons to 114,089 tons [17]. - Social inventory increased to 1,157,400 tons, with 300 - series inventory at 692,100 tons (up 0.89% month - on - month) [17]. - The inventory of Qing Shan resources was high, suppressing steel prices, and downstream users were in a wait - and - see state [17]. - The industry faced cost pressure, and steel mills, agents, and traders were in a loss - making state [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly indicated, but the operation rating implies an unclear short - term trend [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the market [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in terms of a star rating, but implied to follow the crude oil trend [1][3] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market for crude oil is oscillating strongly, but there may be short - selling opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced. The fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil markets show different trends, with high - sulfur fuel oil facing weak demand and low - sulfur fuel oil following the crude oil trend. The asphalt market has a short - term callback pressure on the cracking spread but the upward trend is not reversed. The LPG market has stabilized with limited downward space and remains in low - level oscillation [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued to rise, with the SC07 contract rising 0.69% during the day. The crude oil month - spread and spot premium are stronger than the single - side price, indicating tight physical supply as the peak season approaches. Since the second quarter, global oil inventory accumulation has exceeded that of the first quarter. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased by 3.3 million barrels. The market is short - term oscillating strongly, but the rapid production increase by OPEC+ may make the supply - demand tightness unsustainable [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a differentiated trend today, with LU performing relatively strongly. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep - processing is still low. The summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa has some support, but the expected lower temperature in Saudi Arabia and Egypt this summer and the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread may lead to more crude oil used for power generation. In May, the arrival volume of Russian fuel oil in Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons. The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread and EFS are expected to weaken together. The low - sulfur fuel oil bunkering volume in Fujairah decreased significantly last week, and the overseas ship - fuel demand peak season is approaching the end. With low supply in China, the port bonded inventory has decreased significantly, and low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the crude oil trend [3] Asphalt - Asphalt performed relatively weakly today, and the BU cracking spread continued a slight downward trend. The June diluted asphalt premium is still at a high of - $6.5 per barrel, and refinery production depends on crude oil quotas. After the peak of major refinery overhauls, the refinery's operation is still restricted by poor comprehensive refining and export profits, and the supply increase lacks resilience. The seasonal demand improvement has been realized, but the real driving force is still awaited. The balance sheet estimates that the de - stocking trend will continue and the inventory level is low. The BU cracking spread faces short - term callback pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [4] LPG - The June CP reduction is relatively small. Although the Middle East supply is still abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment, and the market decline has stabilized. The domestic arrival volume at the beginning of the month and the domestic - produced gas have both declined month - on - month, and the supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downward space. The spot - market surplus pressure has eased, and the futures market has stabilized with the rise of crude oil, but the improvement of chemical profit margins lacks momentum, and it remains in low - level oscillation [5]