当地时间6月3日，美国白宫发表声明称，美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25%提高至50%。该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。 美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收50%关税的范围，扩大的关税清单将于8月18日正式生 效。 当地时间8月15日，美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收50%关税的范围，将数百种衍生产品 纳入加征关税清单。 美国商务部在当天晚间发布的《联邦公报》公告中表示，工业与安全局已将407个产品编码加入《美国 协调关税表》，这些产品将因所含钢铁和铝成分而被加征额外关税。 公告称，这些产品中非钢铁和铝的部分，将适用特朗普总统对特定国家商品所征收的关税税率。扩大的 关税清单将于8月18日正式生效。 美国劳工部发布的最新数据显示，美国7月份PPI（生产者价格指数）环比上涨0.9%，大幅高于6月份的 零增长和市场预期的0.2%，为2022年6月以来的最大涨幅；该指数同比涨幅为3.3%，大幅高于6月份的 2.3%和市场预期的2.6%，为今年2月以来的最高水平。 美国劳工部的数据还显示，7月份PPI上涨主要被服务业驱动。服务业生产者价格指数当月环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet shows a significant reduction in asset size since June 2022, with current figures indicating a total of $6.6436 trillion as of August 14, 2025, down $2.2714 trillion from $8.915 trillion in June 2022, primarily due to decreases in Treasury and MBS assets [7]. Group 1: Balance Sheet Overview - The asset side of the balance sheet increased by $2.772 billion this week, with a total balance of $6.6436 trillion, recovering from the previous week [2]. - Treasury assets amount to $4.2048 trillion, while MBS stands at $2.1207 trillion [2]. - On the liability side, reverse repos decreased by $43.674 billion, with a reverse repo account size of $402.201 billion [2]. Group 2: Liquidity and Reserves - Fiscal deposits increased by $51.154 billion, bringing the fiscal deposit account balance to $515.469 billion [3]. - The total liquidity recovery this week is approximately $74.8 billion, indicating a net liquidity withdrawal of about $47.08 billion [4][5]. - The reserve balance reached $3.3328 trillion, showing an increase from the previous week [6]. Group 3: Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% in July, exceeding market expectations, driven by rising costs in goods and services, which may impact consumer prices [7]. - Concerns about service sector inflation are growing among Federal Reserve officials, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee closely monitoring inflation's spread beyond tariff-affected goods [7]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet advocates for a more aggressive rate cut next month, suggesting a starting point of a 25 basis point reduction [8]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed increasing support for rate cuts due to a softening labor market, with market expectations shifting away from significant rate cuts following the recent data release [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - environment shows the US dollar oscillating at a low level, which boosts non - ferrous metals. However, the copper market's fundamental demand is weak, failing to support a market rebound. Currently, copper prices remain in a narrow - range fluctuation, awaiting market drivers. The downstream demand is insufficiently supported, with high - temperature and rainy weather affecting downstream terminal demand, and the real - estate sector dragging down the market, while the power grid performs well. Although there is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, overall demand remains tepid [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - **Macro Data**: The US July producer price index (PPI) had a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, both exceeding market expectations [1]. - **Supply**: The Indonesian smelter's maintenance was extended to mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is no sign of a decline in copper production, and the smelter's production enthusiasm is fair. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - **Demand**: High - temperature and rainy weather has led to weak downstream terminal demand. Rising copper prices have dampened downstream purchasing sentiment. The power grid performs well, but the real - estate sector is a drag. There is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, which supports domestic copper prices to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened low, rose during the day, and faced pressure. The closing price was 79,060 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 2,322 to 101,223 lots, and the short positions increased by 10 to 100,094 lots [5]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 25 yuan/ton. On August 14, 2025, the LME official price was $9,751/ton, with a spot premium of - $85.5/ton [5]. Supply - side As of August 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $37.98/tonne dry, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.79 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 24,600 tons, an increase of 126 tons from the previous period. As of August 14, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 80,700 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a slight decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 266,800 short tons, an increase of 9 short tons from the previous period [10].

Group 1 - The core point of the news highlights a significant rise in wholesale price inflation in the U.S. for July, raising concerns about inflationary pressures in the market [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding economists' expectations of 0.2% and 2.5% respectively [3] - Core PPI, excluding volatile items like food and energy, also rose by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, marking the largest monthly increase since March 2022 [3] Group 2 - Service prices saw a notable increase of 1.1% in July, the highest since March 2022, with trade service profit margins surging by 2%, contributing over 50% to the monthly increase [3] - The PPI for commodities was driven up by rising prices of vegetables, meat, and eggs, which led to a 0.7% increase, the largest since January of the same year [4] Group 3 - In the silver market, the current trading price is around $37.95 per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.12% from the opening price of $38.00 [1] - The silver market experienced fluctuations, with a daily high of $38.03 and a low of $37.80, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - The previous day's trading saw silver open at $38.525, reaching a peak of $38.727 before a strong pullback, closing at $38.008, forming a bearish candlestick pattern [5]

Group 1 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. rose significantly in July, with a year-on-year increase from 2.3% in June to 3.3%, surpassing market expectations of 2.5% [1] - Month-on-month, the PPI increased by 0.9%, marking the largest rise in nearly three years, exceeding the expected 0.2% and previous value of 0% [1] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, saw a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, higher than the expected 3% and previous value of 2.6% [1] Group 2 - Service costs were the main driver of the PPI increase, with a month-on-month rise of 1.1% in July [2] - Wholesale and retail profit margins surged by 2%, primarily driven by wholesale machinery equipment [2] - The PPI for goods, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.4% [2] Group 3 - The PPI energy prices followed the rise in international oil prices, indicating a correlation between energy costs and PPI [3] - Companies are adjusting the pricing of goods and services to offset the cost pressures from higher tariffs in the U.S. [3] - The extent to which companies pass on tariff burdens to consumers will be a key factor in determining future interest rate paths [3]

Core Insights - The report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicates a significant rise in wholesale prices in July, driven by soaring profit margins, signaling a renewed threat of inflation to the U.S. economy [1][3] Group 1: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July showed a month-over-month increase of 0.9%, far exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2022 [3] - Year-over-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, the highest growth since February, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate of 2% [3] Group 2: Service Inflation and Contributing Factors - Service inflation was identified as the primary driver of the overall PPI increase, with service prices rising by 1.1% in July, the largest increase since March 2022 [4] - The rise in trade service profit margins, which increased by 2%, has been linked to the ongoing impact of tariffs implemented during the Trump administration, as companies have passed some of the increased import costs onto service prices [4] - Wholesale prices for machinery and equipment rose by 3.8% in July, contributing to 30% of the service price increase, indicating significant cost pressures in the machinery and equipment sector [4] Group 3: Corporate Pricing Strategies and Economic Implications - Despite weak demand in the first half of the year, companies have adjusted their pricing strategies to offset increased costs from tariffs, further fueling inflation [5] - The extent to which companies pass tariff costs onto consumers will be crucial in determining future interest rate trends, with potential implications for inflationary pressures and consumer price levels [5] - The Federal Reserve may be compelled to adopt more aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which could simultaneously suppress economic growth and increase financing costs for businesses [5] Group 4: Global Market Impact - The unusual fluctuations in U.S. wholesale prices are expected to have a ripple effect on global markets, as the U.S. economy's policies and inflation trends influence financial markets worldwide [6] - Other central banks may closely monitor U.S. inflation dynamics and adjust their monetary policies accordingly, while global investors may reassess asset allocations in response to potential market volatility [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. wholesale inflation rate is expected to show signs of recovery in July, indicating that businesses' ability to absorb high tariff costs is weakening, leading to increased pressure on consumer prices [1] - According to a FactSet survey, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to rise by 2.4% year-on-year in July, slightly up from 2.3% in June, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1] - Goldman Sachs economists indicate that as of June, U.S. companies have absorbed about 64% of tariff costs, but this figure may drop to below 10% in the coming months, resulting in more costs being passed on to consumers [1] Group 2 - Economists believe that the maximum impact of tariffs on inflation has yet to be felt, with the effective tariff rate rising from approximately 3% at the beginning of the year to 18% [2] - JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist estimates that tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP by about 1% and increase inflation by 1 to 1.5 percentage points [2] - Most institutions expect a limited upward pressure on inflation (0.3%-0.5% monthly), primarily as a temporary shock, which will not prevent the Federal Reserve from initiating rate cuts in late 2025 [2] Group 3 - The Blue Chip Economic Indicators August survey shows that the average GDP growth rate for the second half of the year is expected to be 0.85%, an increase from the previous forecast of 0.75% in July [3] - Analysts have adjusted their expectations regarding the impact of tariffs, anticipating a significant economic recovery in 2026 [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically analyzing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) trends for July 2023. Core Insights 1. **CPI Trends**: - China's headline CPI decreased to 0.0% year-over-year (yoy) in July from +0.1% yoy in June, primarily due to deepening food deflation [1][3] - Month-on-month, the CPI fell to +0.4% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in July compared to +1.8% in June [3] 2. **Food Inflation**: - Year-over-year food inflation dropped to -1.6% in July from -0.3% in June, driven by significant declines in fresh vegetable prices [4] - Pork prices fell by 9.5% yoy in July, while fresh vegetable prices decreased by 7.6% yoy [4] 3. **Non-Food Inflation**: - Non-food CPI inflation increased to +0.3% yoy in July from +0.1% in June, with household item prices rising by 1.2% yoy [5][7] - Fuel costs saw a decline of 9.0% yoy in July [5] 4. **PPI Trends**: - Headline PPI remained unchanged at -3.6% yoy in July, with ongoing deflationary pressures primarily from upstream sectors [9] - Month-over-month PPI inflation rose to -1.8% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in July from -2.9% in June [9] 5. **Sector Contributions to PPI**: - The deflation in PPI was attributed to price declines in coal mining, petroleum, ferrous metals, and chemicals, with downstream sectors also contributing negatively [9] Additional Important Insights - The report suggests that the current "anti-involution" policies in China may not lead to a rapid PPI reflation without broad-based demand stimulus [1] - The NBS indicated that falling export prices due to US tariffs and seasonal declines in raw materials contributed to the deep PPI deflation [9] - Core CPI inflation, excluding food and energy, edged up to +0.8% yoy in July, indicating some resilience in non-food sectors [8] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the conference call regarding the current state of the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on inflation metrics and their implications for future economic policies and investment considerations.

Core Insights - Significant downward revision of employment growth and adjustments in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculation methods have raised questions about the reliability of official statistics [5][6][19] - Bank of America (BofA) maintains that these data remain reliable but advises caution regarding initial employment figures [6][11] - Alternative data cannot replace official statistics but can provide a reasonable check on the data [7][24] Employment Data - The recent downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June is the largest adjustment outside of the pandemic period [8][11] - BofA suggests evaluating these revisions in terms of both absolute numbers and their proportion of total employment, indicating that the latest adjustments, while significant, are not as abnormal when viewed in context [11][12] - The response rate for surveys has declined, which may lead to larger-than-normal revisions, but the revisions typically fall within a 90% confidence interval [13][14][16] Consumer Price Index (CPI) - The increase in imputed data within the CPI is a concern, but BofA believes there is no immediate cause for alarm [20][21] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has had to rely more on imputed prices due to reduced data collection, which could potentially distort inflation readings [20][21] - BofA's analysis indicates that the reduction in CPI sample collection has not significantly impacted overall CPI changes, with discrepancies being less than 1 percentage point [21] Alternative Data Sources - In light of concerns over government data reliability, BofA identifies several alternative data sources, such as Homebase, ADP, and credit card spending data, which can provide insights into labor market conditions and consumer spending [24][26][27] - While these alternative data sources are useful supplements, BofA emphasizes that there is no perfect substitute for official statistics [28] GDP Tracking Adjustments - BofA has revised its second-quarter GDP growth estimate down by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, influenced by lower-than-expected construction spending and downward revisions in payroll data [29][30] - The adjustments in GDP tracking reflect changes in employment data, construction spending, and inventory levels, indicating a more cautious economic outlook [29][30]

Group 1 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Chile increased by 4.6% year-on-year in June [1]