Group 1: Report Overview - Report on the daily situation of the pig industry dated December 24, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Futures and Spot Market Conditions - On the 23rd, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated upward, closing with a positive line. The highest was 11,435 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,335 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,415 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 2,251 lots to 344,624 lots [7] - On the 23rd, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 11.50 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] Supply - Side Analysis - In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The proportion of second - fattening and hog retention was high in October, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is slightly higher than the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival [8] - According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%, and the overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal [8] Demand - Side Analysis - Currently, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and there may still be a small amount of rolling restocking demand in December [8] - With the continuous drop in temperature, the demand for curing and sausage - making has increased successively, and the terminal consumer demand has continued to rise. The orders of slaughtering enterprises remain high, but after the Winter Solstice stocking, the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have decreased slightly. On December 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 195,400 heads, a decrease of 1,900 heads from the previous day, an increase of 4,500 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 21,000 heads month - on - month [8] Policy - Side Analysis - China imposes anti - dumping duties on imported related pork and pork by - products from the EU, but the impact is very limited due to the extremely low proportion compared with domestic consumption [8] Overall Market Outlook - In the spot market, supply and demand are both increasing. After the Winter Solstice stocking, demand has weakened, and the spot market is expected to fluctuate [8] - In the futures market, pig supply is expected to maintain a slight increase. The demand elasticity before the Spring Festival is strong, but the relatively concentrated second - fattening and hog retention in October, combined with the continuous release of production capacity, form double supply pressure, continuing to put pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. However, the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, and the recent epidemic situation in the north is more severe year - on - year, increasing the frequency of bottom - range fluctuations [8] Group 3: Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the text Group 4: Data Overview - The actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13] - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets is 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week [13] - As of December 18th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 119.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 26.7 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 238.2 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 26.2 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising is 12.09 yuan/kg, remaining flat week - on - week. The cost of fattening with purchased piglets is affected by both feed prices and piglet prices, and the expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter is 11.42 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/kg [13] - As of the week of December 18th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 130.18 kg, an increase of 0.55 kg from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.42%, an increase of 1.37 kg from last month, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%, and a decrease of 0.50 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 0.38% [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic large pigs is increasing, coupled with the recent rise in swine fever, leading to a short - term increase in slaughter and suppressing hog prices. It is expected that both hog and pork supply will increase. On the demand side, the domestic macro - environment is expected to improve, and the demand for cured meat is gradually releasing, supporting the price bottom, but overall consumption remains unoptimistic. The market this week may see an increase in both supply and demand, with hog prices expected to decline in the short - term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. The LH2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,400 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals show that supply and demand are both increasing, and the market may be neutral. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a premium to the futures, also neutral. Inventory data as of September 30 shows that the hog存栏 increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.3% year - on - year, and the sow存栏 increased by 0.01% month - on - month and decreased by 0.66% year - on - year, which is bearish. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving down, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, both being bearish [8]. 2. Recent News - The domestic hog consumption market is affected by the off - season, swine fever has spread, and hog slaughter has increased, leading to an increase in supply. Spot prices are weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, pork demand has decreased in the short - term, and prices are affected by increased supply. However, the continued decline space may be limited, and prices may show a bottom - fishing and rebound trend. The domestic hog farming profit loss has expanded recently, and the enthusiasm for large pig slaughter has decreased in the short - term. The decrease in both supply and demand supports the short - term hog futures and spot price expectations [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include that the domestic hog supply enters the off - season after the long holiday and the continued decline space of domestic hog spot prices may be limited. Bearish factors are that the domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement and the domestic hog存栏 is increasing year - on - year. The current main logic is that the market focuses on hog slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - As of March 31, the hog存栏 was 408.5 million, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the sow存栏 was 39.96 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [26]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [8].

供需双增 猪价延续震荡 研究所 周度分析与展望 研究所 过去一周生猪现货震荡略有反弹，因消费季节性走强而供应稳定提升，期货先涨后落，周五又回到周初附近，基差继续偏低位 震荡，LH01较低价交割区仍升水600元左右。基本面来看，从仔猪出生数量来看，一直到明年4月供应都处于稳定增加的趋势 中，继续后期压制猪价的上方空间。短期来看，12月以来规模场出栏增量有限，但散户及二育猪出栏积极性增加，较好的的 匹配了消费的季节性增长。目前二育栏舍利用率继续下降，但读数仍略高于上年同期，同时行业出栏均重刚刚拐头，肥标猪价 差偏弱，行业季节性降均重还会继续推进；而目前离农历过年还较远，拉长了旺季窗口，降低了供应压力集中释放的风险，预 计春节前现货延续偏震荡运行的趋势，但基于仔猪出生数据的推算，春节后淡季压力仍较大。更长期来看，样本数据显示能繁 母猪存栏继续下滑，有利于支撑远端合约的价格重心。操作上，近端震荡对待。远端宽幅震荡思路下把握逢低波段做多的机会 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年12月12日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 。 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase as China enters the off - season of supply and demand after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, and the recent increase in swine fever has led to a short - term increase in slaughter, suppressing pig prices. The demand side shows that the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption, but the demand for cured meat gradually supports the price bottom. The market may see an increase in both supply and demand this week, with pig prices expected to decline in the short - term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. The report has a neutral view on the overall situation. The expected trading range for the LH2603 contract of live pigs is around 11100 - 11500 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic live pig consumption market is affected by the arrival of the off - season, swine fever has spread, pig slaughter has increased, and the spot price is weak in the short - term and maintains a range - bound pattern in the medium - term [10]. - After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, pork demand has weakened in the short - term. Affected by the increase in supply, the live pig spot price is oscillating weakly. The continued decline space may be limited, and it may show a bottom - fishing and rebound trend [10]. - The loss of domestic live pig breeding profits has recently expanded, short - term profits have deteriorated, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has weakened in the short - term. The reduction in both supply and demand supports the short - term expected price of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The live pig spot price is oscillating downward, and the futures are weak in the short - term and may maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term as a whole. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed in the future [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors - The domestic live pig supply enters the off - season after the long holiday [11]. - The continued decline space of the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [11]. Bearish Factors - The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the initial Sino - US trade agreement [11]. - The domestic live pig inventory has increased year - on - year [11]. Main Logic - The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of September 30, the live pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66% [8]. - The annual live pig consumption volume has increased month - on - month, indicating a rebound in pork consumption preference due to price advantages [60]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. 3.6 Other Data Presented - **Price Data**: The report provides data on live pig futures prices (near - month 2601 and main 2603 contracts), live pig futures warehouse receipts, and ex - factory prices of ternary live pigs in different regions from December 3 to December 10 [12]. - **Graphical Data**: The report includes multiple graphs showing the trends of live pig futures basis and spreads, prices of different specifications of live pigs, various supply - side indicators (such as binary sow prices, piglet indicators, inventory, import, cost, profit, etc.), slaughter - end prices and profits, demand - side consumption trends, pig - grain ratio, and the situation of pig purchase and release reserves from 2019 to 2024 [13][15][21][48][58][61][65][67][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase. The domestic market has entered the off - season of supply and demand after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. However, the recent increase in swine fever has led to a short - term increase in slaughter, suppressing pig prices. On the demand side, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. But future demand for cured meat will support the price floor. The market this week may see an increase in both supply and demand, with pig prices expected to decline in the short term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. The expected price range for LH2603 is between 10,800 and 11,200 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the document 3.2 Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market is affected by the off - season. The spread of swine fever has increased pig slaughter, leading to an increase in supply. Spot prices are weak in the short term and will maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, pork demand has weakened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating weakly due to increased supply. The room for further price decline is limited, and prices may bottom out and rebound. The loss of domestic pig farming profits has recently expanded, reducing the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs in the short term. The decrease in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot markets. Pig spot prices are oscillating downward, and futures are weak in the short term and may maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of September 30, the pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66% [8]. - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [26]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. 3.6 Pig Futures and Spot Prices - The report provides data on pig futures prices (near - month 2601 and main 2603), pig futures warehouse receipts, and spot prices of ternary hybrid pigs in different regions from November 28 to December 5, 2025 [12]. 3.7 Pig Futures Market - Basis and Spread Trends - The report shows the trends of pig futures - spot basis and the spreads between different contracts (1 - 3, 1 - 5, 1 - 9) [13]. 3.8 Pig Spot Market - Average Prices of Different Specifications of Pigs - It presents the trends of the average prices of commodity pigs,白条, and the average pork prices in 36 cities, as well as the price trends of ternary hybrid pigs in different regions and the spread trends between standard and fat pigs [15][17][19]. 3.9 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side - **Indicator Pig Prices**: It shows the trends of the average prices of binary sows, 7 - kg piglets, and culled sows [21]. - **Piglet Indicators**: It presents the feed - to - meat ratio and survival rate of piglets [23]. - **Rural Ministry of Agriculture Inventory**: It shows the monthly pig inventory and its month - on - month trend, as well as the monthly inventory of breeding sows [25]. - **Large - scale Farm Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of commodity pigs of different weight ranges in large - scale farms and the weekly proportion trends of pigs below 90 kg and above 150 kg [27][29]. - **Pork Imports**: It shows the monthly pork import trends [31]. - **Fattening Costs**: It shows the fattening cost trends (taking 100 - 120 kg as an example) [34]. - **Feed Profit Expectations**: It shows the weekly profit expectations of pig feed [37]. - **Slaughter**: It shows the monthly pig slaughter volume trends and the weekly average slaughter weight trends [39]. - **Slaughter Profits**: It shows the weekly pig slaughter profit trends [41]. - **Profits**: It shows the weekly profit trends of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets [43]. - **Substitutes**: It shows the price spread trends between pigs and beef, mutton, and chicken [45]. 3.10 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Slaughter Side - **Prices**: It shows the trends of the average price of白条, the price spread between live pigs and白条, the slaughter settlement price, and the average price in 36 cities [48][50]. - **Slaughter Profits**: It shows the weekly slaughter processing profit trends [52]. - **Demand Slaughter**: It shows the daily pig slaughter volume and the opening rate, as well as the weekly fresh - sales rate and frozen - product inventory rate trends of slaughtering enterprises [54][56]. 3.11 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Demand Side - **Consumption Trends**: The annual pork consumption volume has increased month - on - month, indicating a recovery in pork consumption preference due to price advantages [58][60]. 3.12 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Pig - to - Grain Ratio - It shows the trends of the pig - to - grain ratio [61]. 3.13 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Reserve Purchase and Release - **Rising and Falling Trends**: It shows the historical rising and falling trends of pig prices [65]. - **Reserve Purchase Situation**: It shows the pig reserve purchase situation from 2019 to 2024 [67]. - **Reserve Release Situation**: It shows the pig reserve release situation from 2019 to 2024 [69].

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 05, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market shows both supply and demand increasing, but the enthusiasm of second - fattening is weak and mainly in a wait - and - see mode, so prices are likely to fluctuate [7] - In the futures market, pig supply is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival. The 2601 contract still has demand elasticity, but the concentrated second - fattening in October and continuous capacity release may create double supply pressure before the Spring Festival, putting downward pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. In the medium and long term, the trend is likely to be weakly fluctuating, but as the price decline compared to the same period last year is large, the frequency of bottom - end fluctuations may increase [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 4th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then fluctuated downwards, closing in the red. The highest was 11,250 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,180 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,190 yuan/ton, a 0.44% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,206 lots to 374,770 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 4th, the national average price of三元hogs was 11.20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - **Supply Side**: In the long term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. In October, second - fattening and weight - holding were concentrated, and the current utilization rate of second - fattening pens is high, reaching last year's level, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. Currently, farmers are slaughtering according to the normal rhythm [7] - **Demand Side**: The pen utilization rate is high, and second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see mode. There may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. The continuous cooling of the weather has led to the start of curing and sausage - making in Sichuan. In addition, fresh sales in many northern and southern regions have improved, terminal consumer demand has continued to rise, and the increase in slaughter orders has significantly supported the slaughter volume. On December 4th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 177,300 heads, an increase of 600 heads from the previous day, 3,000 heads week - on - week, and 19,000 heads month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - Not provided in the content 3. Data Overview - **Actual and Planned Slaughter**: In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [12] - **Breeding Profit**: As of the week of December 4th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 135.01 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.88 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was - 273 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/head [12] - **Fattening Cost**: As of the week of December 4th, the cost of purchasing 110kg pigs and fattening them to 140kg was 11.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125kg pigs and fattening them to 150kg was 11.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [12] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of December 4th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 129.82kg, an increase of 0.60kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. Among them, the average slaughter weight of group farms was 124.71kg, an increase of 0.16kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and the average slaughter weight of individual farmers was 146.08kg, an increase of 0.91kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market has entered the off - season of supply and demand after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. Large - scale farms have reduced their slaughter, supporting short - term pig prices. It is expected that both pig and pork supply will decrease this week. The overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market may see a decrease in both supply and demand this week, with short - term pig prices oscillating downward and mid - term prices maintaining a range - bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms in the middle of the month and the dynamic changes in the secondary fattening market [8]. - The basis of the 2601 contract is 20 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, presenting a bearish situation [8]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [8]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, also indicating a bearish situation [8]. - Recently, both supply and demand of pigs have started to decrease. It is expected that pig prices will bottom out and return to a volatile pattern this week. The LH2601 contract of pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,400 - 11,800 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - Affected by the arrival of the off - season, after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the slaughter of large pigs has decreased, resulting in a decrease in both supply and demand of pigs. The spot price is weak in the short term and will maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term [10]. - After the festivals, the demand for pork has weakened in the short term, but the supply has also decreased, so the room for further decline in the spot price may be limited, and it may show a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [10]. - The loss of domestic pig farming profits has recently expanded, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has weakened in the short term. The decrease in both supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [10]. - After the National Day, the spot price of pigs has bottomed out and rebounded, and the futures will generally maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [11]. - **Bearish factors**: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [11]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory data**: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [8][25][26]. - **Price data**: From November 12 to 19, the prices of the main 2601 and far - month 2603 pig futures contracts fluctuated, and the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained at 90. The spot prices of outer - ternary pigs in different regions also showed certain fluctuations [12]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided other than the fact that the main players' net position is short and the short positions are decreasing [8].

生猪期货早报 2025-11-13 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，国内进入中秋国庆双节后供需淡季，国内大型养殖场出栏开始减少支撑生猪短 期价格，预计本周供给猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，长假结束后至居民整 体消费意愿减弱，压制短期鲜猪肉消费。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期震荡回落 中期或维持区间震荡格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价11795元/吨，2601合约基差95元/吨，现货贴水期货。中性。 3. 库存：截至6月30日，生猪存栏量42 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-11-11 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，国内进入中秋国庆双节后供需淡季，国内大型养殖场出栏开始减少支撑生猪短 期价格，预计本周供给猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，长假结束后至居民整 体消费意愿减弱，压制短期鲜猪肉消费。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期震荡回落 中期或维持区间震荡格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价11900元/吨，2601合约基差55元/吨，现货贴水期货。中性。 3. 库存：截至6月30日，生猪存栏量42 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to decline in the short - term, with a mid - term range - bound oscillation pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group farms' slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. - The spot price has a premium over the futures price, and the current inventory shows an increase, while the price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward direction, and the net short position of the main contract is increasing [10]. - It is expected that the pig price will bottom out and return to a range - bound pattern, with the LH2601 contract oscillating between 11,500 and 11,900 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to decrease in both pigs and meat this week. Demand is weakened by the post - holiday reduced consumer willingness, resulting in a short - term decline in fresh pork consumption. The market is expected to have a double - decrease in supply and demand, with short - term price decline and mid - term range - bound oscillation. Neutral view [10]. - **Basis**: The national average spot price is 11,940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 255 yuan/ton, indicating a premium of the spot over the futures. Bullish [10]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month and 4.2% year - on - year increase. Bearish [10]. - **Market Chart**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. Bearish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Bearish [10]. - **Expectation**: Pig supply and demand are both decreasing. The pig price is expected to bottom out and return to a range - bound pattern this week, with the LH2601 contract oscillating between 11,500 and 11,900 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. The slaughter of large pigs has decreased, resulting in a double - decrease in supply and demand. The spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and range - bound in the mid - term [12]. - After the festivals, pork demand has weakened in the short - term, but the spot price is supported by the decrease in supply and is expected to bottom out and rebound. The room for further price decline is limited [12]. - The losses in pig farming have recently expanded, reducing the enthusiasm for large pig slaughter in the short - term. The double - decrease in supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price has bottomed out and rebounded after the National Day, and the futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the mid - term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: The domestic pig supply enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price is limited [13]. - **Bearish**: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The document provides the prices of pig futures contracts (near - month 2511, main 2601), pig futures warehouse receipts, and the spot prices of foreign ternary pigs in different regions from October 28 to November 4 [14]. - **Market Trends**: Multiple charts show the trends of pig futures basis, spreads, spot prices of different pig specifications, and various supply - side and demand - side indicators, such as inventory, slaughter, and consumption [15][17][23]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is a bearish signal [10].