1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease this week after the holiday, and the demand is also suppressed by the macro - environment and high - temperature weather. The market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 14,100 - 14,500 [10]. - The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, and the inventory shows an increasing trend, while the price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals show that supply and demand may both decrease this week, and the pig price is expected to oscillate. The spot price is at a discount to the futures, the inventory is increasing, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. The expected price range of LH2509 is 14,100 - 14,500 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in both supply and demand. The spot price oscillates weakly in the short term, and the futures follow a similar pattern [12]. - The short - term decline in pork demand after the May Day holiday and the decrease in both supply and demand lead to a weakly oscillating spot price, but the decline space may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [12]. - The low - level pig - raising profit still exists in the short term, and the high slaughter enthusiasm of large pigs and the decrease in both supply and demand suppress the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. When the price stabilizes depends on the future supply reduction and demand recovery [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited decline space of the domestic pig spot price [13]. - **Bearish factors**: The pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of the pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day [13]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory data**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - **Price data**: The national average spot price was 14,080 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract was - 305 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures [10]. 3.5 Position Data The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing [10].

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Futures Morning Report - Report Date: July 23, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Advisory Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of pigs may decrease this week after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork is also suppressed. The market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to a volatile pattern in the short term. The price of LH2509 is expected to fluctuate between 14,100 and 14,500 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter. The supply and demand of pigs both decline, and the spot price is short - term volatile and weak, and the futures follow the same pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Domestic pig inventory has declined year - on - year, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the consumption of pork enters the off - season after May Day [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a 0.8% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a 0.6% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Price**: The national average spot price is 14,310 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is - 70 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the hog price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to be abundant until December, making it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support the hog price to some extent. Given that the 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and the short - term price fluctuations are limited, the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 22, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 284 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of the hog market have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is in a wide - range volatile adjustment. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 4,438 lots today, with a position of about 59,800 lots. The highest price today was 14,415 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,285 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,380 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of hogs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard hog price difference may strengthen. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for hog prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, and the fact that although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the hog slaughter volume may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for the hog price to rise significantly under abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail farming group and support the hog price. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and the short - term price fluctuations of hogs are limited. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4行情概览 (Market Overview) - The report provides the futures prices of different hog contracts on July 22 and 21, including the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts, and their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the 01 contract rose by 180 yuan/ton, with a percentage increase of 1.28%, from 14,110 yuan/ton on July 21 to 14,290 yuan/ton on July 22 [6]. 3.5重点数据追踪 (Key Data Tracking) - The report shows the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the hog main contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of live pigs may decrease in both quantity and meat after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork is suppressed in the short - term due to the end of the holiday and the pessimistic macro - environment. However, the tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. The market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, and the pig price will return to a volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly mid - group farm's slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [8]. - The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, and the inventory shows a certain decline in live pigs and a slight increase in breeding sows. The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards. The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that the pig price will rise and then fall this week, returning to a range - bound pattern between 13,800 and 14,200 for the LH2509 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt No specific content provided for daily prompt in the report. 3.2 Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic live pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter. The supply and demand of live pigs both decrease, and the spot price fluctuates weakly in the short term, with the futures price following a similar pattern [10]. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork turns weak in the short term. Affected by the double - reduction in supply and demand, the live pig spot price fluctuates weakly, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [10]. - The domestic live pig breeding profit remains at a low level but still has short - term profit. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter is relatively good in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The live pig spot price may fluctuate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a weakly volatile pattern in the short term. When the price stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and recovery in demand [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price [11]. - Bearish factors: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of the live pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day [11]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on the live pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - **Price**: The national average spot price was 14,470 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract was 460 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price [8]. 3.5 Position Data The main positions are net short, with a reduction in short positions [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork may also decline due to the end of the holiday and a pessimistic macro - environment. However, the tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. The market is expected to experience a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, with pig prices returning to a volatile pattern. The target price range for LH2509 is between 14,000 and 14,400 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No content provided for a detailed summary. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig market enters a slack season, with reduced large - pig slaughter and a double - reduction in supply and demand. Spot prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and the futures market will follow a similar pattern [10]. - Pork demand weakens after the May Day holiday. The spot price of pigs is affected by the double - reduction in supply and demand, with limited downward space due to reduced slaughter [10]. - The profit of pig farming remains low, but there is still short - term profit. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter is fair in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The spot price of pigs may be volatile and weak after the May Day holiday, and the futures market will generally maintain a volatile and weak pattern. When the market stabilizes depends on future supply reduction and demand recovery [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Domestic pig inventory has declined year - on - year, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [11]. - **Bearish**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the consumption of pork enters a slack season after the May Day holiday [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side Indicators**: - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 41731 million heads, a 0.8% month - on - month decrease and a 2.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 4066 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a 0.6% year - on - year increase [8]. - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 40850 million heads, a 5.9% month - on - month decrease and a 5.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 3996 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year decrease [26]. - **Demand - side Indicators**: - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork weakens, and the consumption of fresh pork is suppressed. The tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence [8]. - The annual consumption of pork shows a month - on - month increase, indicating a recovery in pork consumption preference due to price advantages [60]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the pig market this week may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 14,100 - 14,500 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of live pigs may experience a double - reduction in pigs and meat this week after the May Day holiday. The demand is also affected by the post - holiday decline in consumer enthusiasm. The market is expected to be in a state of double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to an oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the group farms' slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market at the end of the month [8]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter and a double - reduction in supply and demand. The spot price is short - term oscillatory and weak, and the futures follow a similar pattern [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited further decline in domestic live pig spot prices [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season after May Day [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side Data**: As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - **Price Data**: The national average spot price is 15,370 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 1,000 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [8]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [8].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease in both quantity and meat after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork is also suppressed. However, the tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. Overall, the market may see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, and the pig price is expected to return to a volatile pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content is provided in the given text. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter. The supply and demand of pigs both decline, and the spot price fluctuates weakly in the short term, with the futures following a similar pattern [10]. - After the May Day holiday, pork demand weakens in the short term. The spot price of live pigs fluctuates weakly due to the double - reduction in supply and demand, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [10]. - The domestic pig - farming profit remains at a low level but still exists in the short term. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter is relatively high in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term expectations of live - pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The spot price of live pigs may fluctuate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a weakly volatile pattern. When the market stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and recovery in demand [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited further decline in domestic live - pig spot prices [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season after May Day [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh - meat demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: After the May Day holiday, the supply and demand of pigs both decrease. The market may see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week, and the pig price is expected to return to a volatile pattern [8]. - **Base Difference**: The national average spot price is 14,560 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 555 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [8]. - **Inventory**: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, which is bullish [8]. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is bullish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: After the May Day holiday, the supply and demand of pigs both decrease. The pig price is expected to return to a range - bound pattern this week, with the LH2509 contract of live pigs fluctuating around 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [8].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The reserve policy stabilizes pig prices and boosts confidence, and the phased reduction in volume and weight by enterprises supports the rebound of spot and futures prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply is expected to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Futures are currently in a rebound, but are still affected by the off - season demand and loose supply - demand in the long run [9] Group 4: Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures: On the 25th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened flat, fluctuated higher, and closed positive. The highest was 14,015 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,930 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,000 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 813 lots to 164,612 lots. - Spot: On the 25th, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 14.48 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - Demand: The fat - to - standard price spread remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait - and - see state, weakening the support for prices. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume remained low. On June 25th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 143,200 heads, down 100 heads from the previous day and 3,300 heads from a week ago. - Supply: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Currently, enterprises are reducing volume and weight in a phased manner, the slaughter volume of large pigs is declining, and the slaughter weight has decreased slightly [9] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [10] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous ten - day period - As of the week of June 19th, the national average slaughter weight was 128.28 kg, a decrease of 0.54 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42% - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous ten - day period. The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 19th was 0.07 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous week [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, the supply and demand of live pigs are expected to decrease. The market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to return to a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,700 - 14,100 [8]. - The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation, and the overall consumer willingness of residents has declined after the May Day holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. However, the additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of live pigs show that after the May Day holiday, the enthusiasm for domestic slaughter has weakened. It is expected that the supply of pigs and pork will decrease this week. The demand is also weak due to the end of the holiday and the pessimistic macro - environment. Overall, the market may see a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to an oscillatory pattern. The base price shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures. The inventory indicates that as of March 31, the live pig inventory decreased, and as of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was stable. The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. It is expected that the pig price will oscillate in the range of 13,700 - 14,100 for the LH2509 contract [8]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic live pig consumption market has entered a off - season, with a decrease in the slaughter of large pigs. The supply and demand of live pigs have both decreased, and the spot price is oscillating weakly in the short term, with the futures following the same pattern [10]. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork has weakened in the short term. The spot price of live pigs is oscillating weakly due to the double - reduction in supply and demand, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [10]. - The domestic live pig breeding profit remains at a low level, but there is still a short - term profit. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is still good in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The spot price of live pigs may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain an oscillatory and weak pattern in the short term. When the price stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and the recovery in demand [10]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: The domestic live pig inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [11]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the consumption of live pigs and pork has entered an off - season after May Day [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: As of March 31, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [8]. - **Price**: The average national spot price is 14,160 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 265 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures [8]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand fundamentals of the pig market have not improved substantially. Although the short - term price is supported by factors such as farmers' reduced sales and increased second - fattening, the overall supply is still loose due to weakened terminal consumption, group farms' weight reduction and increased supply, and active sales by social farms [7]. - The pig production capacity is sufficient. Although the number of breeding sows has declined slightly, it is still above the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased. If pork consumption does not grow significantly, the room for pig price increase before September 2025 may be limited [7]. - In the short term, the improvement of market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market. The resistance level of the main contract is around 14,000. For options, out - of - the - money call options can be sold [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Situation**: The national average pig slaughter price was 14.12 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.63%. The supply - demand relationship remained loose. The number of breeding sows in April 2025 was 40.38 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The production capacity was sufficient, and the pressure on pig slaughter in the later period was still large [7]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The supply in the pig market is sufficient in the current and future periods, and the price is under downward pressure. The short - term market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market, and the resistance level of the main contract is 14,000. Out - of - the - money call options can be sold [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Pig Futures and Spot Prices**: The national average pig slaughter price was 14.12 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 yuan/kg and a week - on - week increase of 1.07%. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and the market supply - demand remains loose [12]. - **Futures Spreads**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Pig Standard - Fat and Gross - White Price Differences**: The price of standard pigs was mainly supported by market sentiment, and the price of large pigs increased. The standard - fat price difference widened slightly compared with last week [29]. - **Prices of Piglets and Binary Sows**: The average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets was 445.71 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.00%. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [33]. - **Price of Culled Sows**: The average price of culled sows was 10.50 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.02%. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted next week [36]. 3.3. Production Capacity - **Inventory of Breeding Sows**: In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, a decrease of 400,000 compared with December 2024. In May, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory may not increase in June [40][44]. - **Elimination Volume of Breeding Sows**: In May, the elimination volume of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. It is expected that the elimination volume may be stable and difficult to decrease in June [48]. - **Inventory Proportion of Breeding Sows**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. 3.4. Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased. It is expected that the inventory may decrease in June [55]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased. It is expected that the actual slaughter volume may increase in June [58]. - **Inventory Structure of Commercial Pigs**: In May 2025, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49 kg piglets decreased, the inventory of 140 - kg and above large pigs decreased, and the inventory of 90 - 140 kg pigs increased slightly [61]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: The national average slaughter weight of foreign - ternary pigs was 123.78 kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%. It is expected that the slaughter weight may continue to decrease slowly next week [64]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Pig Slaughter Volume**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: Terminal consumption is weak, and the cold storage rate of frozen products is at a low level. The domestic frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices is limited [73]. - **Operating Rate and Fresh Sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises this week was 27.97%, a week - on - week increase of 0.75 percentage points. It is expected that the operating rate may decline in the future due to weak demand [76]. - **Substitute Prices**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. 3.6. Cost and Profit - **Profit of Pig Breeding and Slaughtering**: The weekly average profit of self - breeding and self - raising mode was 61.11 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 9.4 yuan/head. The weekly average loss of the mode of purchasing piglets increased to 53.71 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 25.16 yuan/head [89]. - **Gross Profit of Slaughtering and Feed - to - Meat Ratio**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: The current pig - to - grain ratio is 5.86, with little change. It is expected to be stable with a slight decrease next week [96].