招商证券表示，德康长期深耕于生猪及黄羽鸡养殖行业，经年累积的育种优势使得其畜禽成本领先于同 行。生猪方面，公司长期致力于成本挖潜，目前完全成本或已降至12元/千克左右，稳居行业第一梯 队；预计未来仍有压降空间。公司计划在遵循政策引导的前提下，重点发展二号家庭农场模式，联农带 动，积极响应国家号召，彰显头部猪企的责任担当。 消息面上，根据iFind数据，12月末全国能繁母猪存栏量降至3961万头，较10月调减29万头，去产能效 果逐步显现。华福证券发布研报称，猪价偏弱运行，叠加产能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续， 有望推动长期猪价中枢上移，低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。 智通财经APP获悉，德康农牧(02419)午后涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.44%，报76.05港元，成交额7823.85 万港元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2605 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. Influenced by the US soybean trend and end - of - year demand, it will maintain a short - term oscillating pattern due to mixed news [9]. - **A2605 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4320 and 4420. Affected by factors such as the US - China trade agreement and Brazilian soybean imports, it will maintain a short - term range - bound oscillation [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal M2605**: In the short - term, it may maintain an oscillating pattern. The US soybean trend, end - of - year demand, and news factors will all have an impact. The price is neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the market trend is neutral, the main position is bearish [9]. - **Soybean A2605**: In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Influenced by the US - China trade agreement and Brazilian soybean imports. The price is neutral, the basis is neutral, the inventory is bearish, the market trend is bullish, the main position is bullish [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the US - China tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market will oscillate above the thousand - point mark in the short - term [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in January. The soybean meal will return to a range - bound oscillation in the short - term [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal remained good in January, supporting the price expectation. Affected by the US soybean trend and the recovery of soybean meal demand, it will maintain an oscillating pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remained high. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area still exists, and the preliminary agreement in the US - China trade negotiation will affect the soybean meal to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short - term [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still variables in the weather in the South American soybean production area [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in January; Brazilian soybeans have started sowing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary US - China trade agreement [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: Brazilian soybeans have a bumper harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the US - China trade tariff game [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From January 22 to January 30, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated slightly, and the trading volume also fluctuated. The average transaction price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually narrowed [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From January 23 to January 30, the futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated, and the spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal were relatively stable [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From January 21 to January 30, the warehouse receipts of soybean No.1 decreased, the warehouse receipts of soybean No.2 decreased to zero, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025 show the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other indicators over the years [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina from 2023/24, the planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are presented [33][34][38]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from June 2025 to January 2026 show the changes in planting area, yield, output, and other indicators of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [43]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in soybean meal increased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - The main long positions in soybeans decreased, and the funds flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year [44]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans entered a low level at the beginning of the year and decreased year - on - year recently [46]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline [47]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills returned to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increased year - on - year [49]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, and the stocking demand maintained a good expectation [51]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated and declined following the US soybeans, and the market profit fluctuated slightly [53]. - The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and declined slightly month - on - month [55]. - The pig price declined slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs continued to rise [59]. - The domestic pig - raising profit was slightly profitable [61].

Core Insights - The agricultural sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points in January 2026, with a decline of 0.2% for the sector compared to a 1.7% increase for the index [15][17]. - Low-cost pig farming enterprises are showing competitive advantages, with significant performance differentiation among companies as indicated by their annual earnings forecasts [4][29]. Market Review - In January 2026, the agricultural sector's performance lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points, with the sector down 0.2% while the index rose 1.7% [15][17]. - The planting, animal health, fishery, and agricultural processing sub-sectors saw increases of 13.7%, 13.0%, 10.0%, and 6.6% respectively, while feed and livestock farming sub-sectors decreased by 0.1% and 5.1% [15][18]. Livestock Farming - The average price of live pigs in January 2026 was 12.53 CNY/kg, reflecting an 11.8% month-on-month increase but a 21.2% year-on-year decrease [29][34]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs was approximately 5.9 CNY/head, a month-on-month increase of 154 CNY/head, but a year-on-year decrease of 159.8 CNY/head [29][32]. - The average profit for purchased piglets was 47.5 CNY/head, with a month-on-month increase of 260.6 CNY/head and a year-on-year increase of 92.2% [29][32]. Raw Material Prices - In January 2026, the average spot price of corn was approximately 2365 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.7% and a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [48][49]. - The average spot price of wheat was about 2520 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [54]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages, such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, while also considering companies like Dekang Agriculture and New Hope for their potential turnaround [4][29]. - For smaller livestock companies, attention is drawn to Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [4][29].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. has launched its H-share IPO, aiming to raise funds amid a challenging market environment for the pig farming industry [1] - Muyuan Foods plans to issue a total of 274 million H-shares, with 10% allocated for public offering in Hong Kong and 90% for international placement [1] - The IPO price is set at a maximum of 39 HKD per share, which represents a discount of approximately 25% compared to its A-share price of 46 RMB (about 51.67 HKD) [1] Group 2 - Muyuan Foods is the largest pig farming company globally, with an expected breeding capacity of 81 million pigs per year by the end of 2024 [1] - The company forecasts a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a decline of 12.20% to 17.79% year-on-year due to fluctuations in the pig market [4][6] - The average selling price of commercial pigs is expected to be around 13.5 RMB per kilogram in 2025, down approximately 17.3% compared to the previous year [4][6] Group 3 - The domestic supply of breeding sows remains high, coupled with improved industry biosecurity and production efficiency, leading to increased pig supply [7] - Despite a slight increase in pig prices in January 2026, the overall market remains under pressure, with expectations of price declines post-holiday [7] - Muyuan Foods aims to use approximately 10% of the net proceeds from the IPO, around 1.046 billion HKD, for working capital and general corporate purposes [7]

证券代码：001201 证券简称：东瑞股份 东瑞食品集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2026-01 | | 特定对象调研 分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | | 媒体采访 业绩说明会 | | 投资者关系活动类别 | 新闻发布会 路演活动 | | | 现场参观 | | | 其他 2025年度业绩预告交流会 | | 参与单位名称及人员姓名 | | | | 2026年1月30日20:00，公司通过价值在线平台线 上交流的形式，组织了2025年度业绩预告交流会， | | | 就公司2025年度经营情况进行了交流。参与投资机 | | | 构有：华泰证券-王煜坤；广东融昊资管-李良旭；华 | | | 西证券-魏心欣；招商证券-施腾、李秋燕；成都保盛 | | | 家族资管-王国森；东兴证券-程诗月；方正证券-邱 | | | 星皓；耕霁（上海）投资-刘璟欣；广发证券-李雅琦； | | | 国金证券-张子阳；国泰海通证券-王艳君；国信证券 | | | -李瑞楠；华安证券-王莺；华创证券-陈鹏；华福证 | | | 券-申钰雯；华鑫证券-娄倩；华源证券-顾超；山西 | | | 证券-陈振志 ...

报告期内，公司销售生猪307.42万头（包含对外销售和对内部屠宰企业销售），较上年同期增长 35.34%，公司持续做好生猪健康管理及提升产能利用率、生产管理效率，养殖成本较上年同期下降。 全年商品猪销售均价约13.39元/公斤，较上年同期下降约17.70%，由于生猪销售价格同比出现较大幅度 下降，导致生猪养殖业务利润同比减少。 格隆汇1月27日丨神农集团(605296.SH)公布，经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年年度实现归属于母 公司所有者的净利润为31,300.00万元至38,400.00万元，同比减少44.09%到54.43%。预计2025年年度实 现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为27,800.00万元至34,900.00万元，同比减少 49.92%到60.11%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The price center of live pigs continues to move up, and the corn futures price has broken through 2300 again. The short - term price of live pigs is expected to be relatively firm, while the upward expectation of the corn market may converge and there is a risk of high - level adjustment [3][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - **Futures**: Last week, the live pig futures declined significantly. The LH2603 contract closed at 11,565 yuan/ton, a 3.26% drop from the previous week's settlement price [4] - **Spot**: The national ex - ternary live pig market price was 12.97 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.28 yuan/ton. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.35 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 35.96 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets was 115.84 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 67.49 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.64, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 [4] - **Market Situation**: The national live pig spot market rose first and then fell last week, with the overall price center moving up. The market sentiment was supported by the temperature drop, but the actual transaction was average under high prices in the second half of the week. The supply side had no obvious fluctuations, and the market fluctuations mainly focused on the demand side. With the release of pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the short - term price is expected to be relatively firm, and attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms [4] Corn - **Futures**: Last week, the corn futures fell first and then rose. The C2603 contract closed at 2300 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase from the previous week's settlement price [5] - **Spot**: The national average corn spot price was 2373.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.22 yuan/ton. The prices at ports such as Jinzhou Port, Bayuquan Port, and Guangdong Shekou Port showed different degrees of increase or remained stable [5] - **Deep - processing Consumption**: From January 15th to January 21st, 2026, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 138.15 tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 2.56 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises increased, and the weekly output of corn starch was 33.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.54 tons, with an operating rate of 60.46%. The operating rate of the DDGS industry decreased, with a weekly output of 11.608 tons, a decrease of 0.139 tons or 1.18% [6] - **Inventory**: As of January 21st, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 383.8 tons, an increase of 6.91%. As of January 23rd, the total corn inventory of four northern ports was about 1.49 million tons, and the corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 680,000 tons [6] - **Market Situation**: The national corn spot market was oscillating strongly last week. The grain circulation in the Northeast was tight, and the market quotation was stable and strong. The purchase price of enterprises in North China first rose and then fell due to snow. The operating rate of the industry increased slightly, and the overall operating rate of alcohol enterprises decreased. Feed enterprises had relatively sufficient inventory, and downstream enterprises maintained rolling replenishment. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises was low year - on - year, and the pre - festival stocking demand boosted the market price, but the upward expectation may converge [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research on the hog market on January 19, 2026, with the title "Supply Pressure Reduces, Spot Runs Strongly" [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Spot hog prices across the country are running strongly, but considering the high inventory and large出栏 weight, the subsequent supply pressure may continue to show, and the spot price is expected to decline in the long - term [3][5] - Hog futures prices continued to decline today, affected by recent data and the full reflection of positive factors in previous price increases. The futures price may face downward pressure after the current round of increase stabilizes [5] Group 4: Price and Profit Data Spot Prices - The average spot price of hogs today is 13.03 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in various regions have increased, with the largest increase of 1 yuan/kg in Guangdong [3] Futures Prices - Futures prices of most contracts declined, such as LH03 down 275 yuan, LH05 down 210 yuan [3] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices are 330 yuan, up 23 yuan from last week; sow prices remain unchanged at 1557 yuan [3] Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 7.39 yuan, up 18.93 yuan; the profit of purchasing piglets is 48.35 yuan, up 50.66 yuan [3] Contract Spreads - For example, LH7 - 9 is - 825, up 75 from yesterday; LH9 - 1 is 1290, down 270 from yesterday [3] Slaughter and Size Pig Spreads - The slaughter volume is 191,453 heads, down 927 from yesterday. The large - to - standard pig spread is 0.7, up 0.21 from yesterday [3] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish mindset [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [6]

研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 【生猪日报】出栏略有增加 现货整体反弹 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2026/1/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 12.88 | 12.91 | -0.03 | 山西 （-100） | 12.65 | 12.58 | 0.07 | | 湖北（0） | 12.70 | 12.70 | 0.00 | 辽宁 （-300） | 12.42 | 12.21 | 0.21 | | 安徽（200） | 13.11 | 13.11 | 0.00 | 吉林（-300） | 12.28 | 12.05 | 0.23 | | 湖南（100） | 12.73 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Low prices and holiday effects have stimulated better consumption. Meanwhile, the large spread between fat and standard pigs has led to hoarding and withholding sentiment. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has risen significantly, driving a rational rebound in the futures market. In the short - term, the downward driving force of the spot is insufficient, which may continue to support the near - month contracts of the futures market to oscillate strongly. In the medium - term, the supply base is large and will be concentrated around the Spring Festival. The structural contradiction of the tight supply of large pigs will gradually be resolved over time. Pay attention to the upward pressure on the near - term contracts and wait for a rebound to sell short. For the far - end contracts, the direction of capacity reduction is certain, but the rhythm is unclear. Generally, wait for a decline to buy [11]. - The recommended trading strategies are to wait to short the 03 and 05 contracts on rallies with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 in 2 - 3 months, and mainly conduct reverse arbitrage [13]. 3. Summaries According to Different Sections 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, the pig price first declined and then rose. The supply of large pigs was tight, and the upstream had a strong sentiment of withholding sales. However, the demand decreased after New Year's Day, resulting in a narrower increase in the pig price. The average trading weight increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the spread between fat and standard pigs decreased from a high level but was still large year - on - year. Specifically, the average price in Henan dropped by 0.12 yuan to 13.08 yuan/kg, in Sichuan it remained flat at 12.9 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong it dropped by 0.44 yuan to 12.72 yuan/kg. Next week, the supply will increase slightly, which has a negative impact on the market. But the resistance of the breeding side may limit the price decline. The demand support is insufficient due to the decrease in slaughter volume and the slowdown of secondary fattening. It is expected that the pig price will mainly show a slight decline [11]. - **Supply Side**: Since last year, the reduction of sows has been limited. Although the capacity reduction has accelerated since October, the theoretical supply in the first half of this year is still large due to the time - lag effect, and the fundamentals will improve in the second half. In December last year, the pig price was not weak, which slowed down the sow reduction. The theoretical出栏量 will remain high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although it will decline seasonally, the decline is small and the year - on - year figure is still high. Currently, the supply of large pigs is tight, and the spread between fat and standard pigs is high, leading to hoarding and withholding sentiment. The slaughter volume is not low, but the average trading weight has increased counter - seasonally, indicating a backlog of live inventory [11]. - **Demand Side**: Currently, the increase in slaughter volume is limited, and the support for the market is insufficient. The high price of large pigs has slowed down the pace of secondary fattening, and the support from secondary fattening demand is also insufficient [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Trend**: The pig price first declined and then rose last week. The supply of large pigs was tight, and the upstream had a strong sentiment of withholding sales. After New Year's Day, the demand decreased, resulting in a narrower increase in the pig price. The average trading weight increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the spread between fat and standard pigs decreased from a high level but was still large year - on - year. Next week, the supply will increase slightly, which has a negative impact on the market. But the resistance of the breeding side may limit the price decline. The demand support is insufficient due to the decrease in slaughter volume and the slowdown of secondary fattening. It is expected that the pig price will mainly show a slight decline [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price rebounded, the basis of the futures market turned positive, and the inter - month spread turned to positive arbitrage [25]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Fertile Sows and Changes**: Since last year, the reduction of sows has been limited. Although the capacity reduction has accelerated since October, the theoretical supply in the first half of this year is still large due to the time - lag effect, and the fundamentals will improve in the second half. In December last year, the pig price was not weak, which slowed down the sow reduction, with the sow inventory increasing by 0.54% month - on - month according to Yongyi data [34]. - **Theoretical出栏量**: The theoretical出栏量 will remain high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although it will decline seasonally, the decline is small and the year - on - year figure is still high [42]. - **Trading and Average Weight after Slaughter**: Currently, the supply of large pigs is tight, and the spread between fat and standard pigs is high, leading to hoarding and withholding sentiment. The slaughter volume is not low, but the average trading weight has increased counter - seasonally, indicating a backlog of live inventory [49]. 3.4. Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: Currently, the increase in slaughter volume is limited, and the support for the market is insufficient. The high price of large pigs has slowed down the pace of secondary fattening, and the support from secondary fattening demand is also insufficient [58]. 3.5. Cost and Profit - The cost is continuously declining due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement. The pig price is the weakest in the same period in many years. Despite the low cost, there has been an overall loss this year [69]. 3.6. Inventory Side - The frozen pork inventory is in a state of slow recovery and active inventory accumulation [74].