Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown a steady development in its pig farming business, with a significant improvement in breeding costs and stable cash flow [8] - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Qiangdu Livestock, which focuses on pig farming and sales, adopting a "self-breeding and self-raising" model to enhance its farming scale [8] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 169.6 billion, 178.6 billion, and 186.4 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 6.19 billion, 9.39 billion, and 11.61 billion yuan respectively [8] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.68%, and a net profit of 338 million yuan, up 22.27% year-on-year [8] - The average breeding costs for the first and second quarters of 2025 were 13.2 yuan/kg and 12.6 yuan/kg respectively, indicating significant cost improvements [8] - The company’s cash flow remains stable, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.619 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 109.4% [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue and profit figures for the company are as follows: - 2025E: Revenue of 16,960 million yuan, net profit of 619 million yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 17,859 million yuan, net profit of 939 million yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 18,642 million yuan, net profit of 1,161 million yuan [6][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience a volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce pig weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may fluctuate and adjust, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Market Overview - On August 27, 2025, the national average pig slaughter price was 13.6 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan or 0.22% from the previous day; the slaughter price in Henan was 13.68 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan or 0.88%; the slaughter price in Sichuan was 13.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan or 0.81% [6]. - Among futures prices, the 01 contract was 14080 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 0.85%; the 03 contract was 13235 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.38%; the 05 contract was 13625 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 0.29%; the 07 contract was 14165 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04%; the 09 contract was 13445 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan or 1.61%; the 11 contract was 13745 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or 0.83% [6]. - The main basis in Henan was -65 yuan/ton, an increase of 235 yuan or 78.33% from the previous day [6]. II. Key Data Tracking - The report shows data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [14]. III. Market Dynamics - On August 27, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 430 lots [2]. - The short - term decline in the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of pigs [2]. - The main pig contract (LH2511) added 1323 lots in positions today, with a total position of about 71,600 lots. The highest price was 13865 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13700 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13745 yuan/ton [2]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen fluctuantly [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the fact that farmers have reduced pig weight, which is beneficial to the future market; the strong resilience of the spot price indicates that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; although the future slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for pigs [3]. V. Strategy Suggestions - The view is a volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce pig weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may fluctuate and adjust, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4].

人民财讯8月27日电，温氏股份（300498）8月27日晚间发布半年报，2025年上半年，公司实现营业收入 498.52亿元，同比增长5.91%；归母净利润34.75亿元，同比增长159.12%；基本每股收益0.5252元。报告 期内，公司肉猪类销售收入327.35亿元，同比增长16.26%。肉猪类收入增长原因主要是销售量增加。同 时，报告期内，公司持续推进精细化管理，大生产整体稳定，叠加饲料原料价格下降的影响，公司养殖 成本同比呈较大幅度下降。因此，公司生猪养殖业务利润同比呈较大幅度上升。 ...

Group 1 - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) increased by 0.72% as of August 26, 2025, with key stocks such as Xinghuo Technology (600866) rising by 2.04% and Muyuan Foods (002714) by 2.02% [1] - Pig prices are showing signs of stabilization after a prolonged decline, with major quotes in northern regions remaining stable and leading enterprises in Henan experiencing slight increases [1] - The government plans to conduct a central frozen pork reserve collection, with a notice issued for a bidding transaction of 10,000 tons of frozen pork on August 25 [1] Group 2 - The livestock ETF (159867) closely tracks the China Livestock Breeding Index, which includes listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming [2] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Livestock Breeding Index accounted for 64.83% of the index, with Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) being the largest contributors [3] Group 3 - China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of a balanced investment strategy in the pig farming industry, predicting a potential year-on-year decline in pig prices by 2025, while costs are expected to decrease, leading to better-than-expected profits for quality pig farming companies [1] - The price of yellow chickens is correlated with pig prices, and given the low supply side, there is potential for price increases in the future [1]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/8/25 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 13.71 | 13.77 | -0.06 | 山西（-100） | 13.39 | 13.34 | 0.05 | | 湖北（0） | 13.69 | 13.69 | 0.00 | 辽 宁 | 13.34 | 13.31 | 0.03 | | 安徽（200） | 13.81 | 13.84 | -0.03 | 吉林（-300） | 13.24 | 13.20 | 0.04 | | 湖南（100） | 13.75 | 13.80 | -0.05 | 黑龙江 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The positive fat - standard price difference may support pig prices, and it is recommended to wait and see for the 2511 contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures End - **Main Contract Basis Situation**: There are no major fundamental contradictions, and the live pig contract fluctuates and adjusts. On August 22, 2025, the benchmark basis of the main contract was -70 yuan/ton, compared to -135 yuan/ton on August 15 [2][3]. - **Price Changes of Each Contract**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuate and adjust [4]. - **Monthly Spread Changes**: The monthly spreads fluctuate and adjust [7][10]. 2. Spot End - **Pig Price and Slaughter Volume**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price fluctuated and adjusted [13]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The regional price difference is relatively reasonable [15]. - **Fat - Standard Price Difference**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuates strongly. If it continues to strengthen, it will enhance the market's willingness to increase the weight of pigs [17]. - **Fresh Sales and Gross - White Price Difference**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - **Related Product Price Ratio and Fresh - Frozen Price Difference**: The cost - performance of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakens, and the cost - performance of frozen products is inferior to that of fresh products [21]. - **Breeding Profit**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit is still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening is slightly in the red [23]. - **Slaughter Weight**: The slaughter weight continued to increase this week, and subsequent weight changes should be monitored [25]. 3. Production Capacity End - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: At the end of June, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.43 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In July, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample data from different sources continued to increase [27]. - **Sow Culling Situation**: This week, the price of culled sows was weak. The slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in July, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market was average [30]. - **Sow Production Efficiency and Number of Newborn Healthy Piglets**: In July, the number of newborn healthy piglets increased by 0.06% month - on - month, corresponding to an overall increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in January next year [32]. - **Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight decline, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [34]. 4. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. In June, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 30.06 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.7%. The market will gradually enter the inventory reduction stage for frozen products, and the impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons from the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and the impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

毛利率同比大幅提升，期间费用率同比下降。25H1/25Q2 毛利率为19.02%/19.77%，同比 +11.28pct/+3.23pct，原因是（1）生猪业务成本下降明显；（2）屠宰量及产能利用率同比提升。25H1 期间费用率为6.26%，同比-2.06pct，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率0.84%/2.37%/1.20%/1.85%，同 比-0.09pct/-0.72pct/-0.34pct/-0.91pct。销售、管理、研发费用率下降是因为收入提升导致费用支出被摊 薄。财务费用率下降是因为借款及债券利息支出减少。 投资建议：根据25H1 经营情况，我们上调盈利预测。预计25~27 年归母净利润为213.77/241.62/295.13 亿元，同比+19.5%/+13.0%/+22.1%，对应PE 为12.8/11.4/9.3 倍。预计公司经营效率将持续提升，维 持"买入"评级。 生猪养殖及屠宰业务经营向好，带动净利润同比大增。生猪养殖业务方面，25H1 公司生猪业务实现营 收754.46 亿元，同比+34.68%。销售生猪4691.0万头，同比+44.84%，其中销售商品猪/仔猪/种猪 3839.4 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall spot price of live pigs across the country showed a slight rebound today, with the supply pressure improving compared to before, but still existing due to the high inventory level. The scale enterprises'出栏量 has continued to tighten, while the ordinary farmers'出栏 progress has slowed down. The secondary fattening entry enthusiasm is average, and the follow - up increase in entry enthusiasm is expected to be limited. The futures market is affected by the spot pressure, with the far - month contract having support but the near - month contract facing obvious pressure[2][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Spot Information - The overall spot price of live pigs across the country showed a slight rebound today, and the supply was slightly tightened. The scale enterprises'出栏量 continued to tighten, but the overall supply pressure still existed due to the poor overall出栏 completion. The ordinary farmers'出栏 progress slowed down, and there was some pressure on the market to hold back pigs. The secondary fattening entry enthusiasm was average, and the size - pig price difference increased slightly[2] Futures Information - The live pig futures market showed an oscillating trend today. The far - month contract was affected by the previous large increase and the current supply pressure, with some downward pressure, but still having support. The near - month contract faced obvious pressure[5] Transaction Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips in the far - month contract - Arbitrage: LH91 reverse arbitrage - Options: Sell far - month put options[6]

Core Insights - The company has sold 1.7517 million pigs from January to July 2025, achieving approximately 50% of its target output, and is confident in meeting its established goals for the year [1] - The company plans to implement several measures to ensure steady growth in pig output, including advancing a 300,000-head breeding project, optimizing the sow population structure, and establishing a comprehensive biosecurity system [1] - The company is closely monitoring industry policies and market supply-demand changes, aiming to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs through refined management practices and hedging tools to mitigate market price fluctuations [1] Measures for Production Growth - The company is actively promoting a breeding project in the 37th regiment of the Second Division of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, expected to be operational in the second half of 2025 [1] - The company aims to optimize the sow population by scientifically selecting and eliminating low-yield sows to improve reproductive performance and production efficiency [1] - A comprehensive biosecurity system will be constructed, covering site selection, disinfection protocols, vaccination, and health monitoring to ensure the health of the pig population [1] Market Strategy - The company is focused on closely monitoring industry policy dynamics and market supply-demand changes [1] - It plans to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs through meticulous breeding management and feed cost control [1] - The company will utilize hedging tools to address market price volatility, thereby strengthening its competitiveness and risk resistance for long-term stable development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market in China has reached a ten-year high, leading to impressive performance from convertible bond funds, with over ten thematic funds achieving a net value growth rate exceeding 15% this year, and the top performer reaching nearly 25% [2][6]. Market Performance - As of August 7, the China Convertible Bond Index peaked at 469.56 points, marking a 12.74% increase year-to-date [4]. - The top-performing convertible bond funds include: - Southern Changyuan Convertible Bond A with a performance of 24.78% this year [6]. - Other notable funds such as Bosera Convertible Bond Enhanced A, Oriental Convertible Bond A, and others have growth rates around 20% [6][7]. Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers attribute the strong performance of convertible bonds to a combination of a favorable interest rate environment and strong market support, which provides a high margin of safety [8]. - The market is expected to maintain a solid bottom, enhancing the holding experience for convertible bonds [8]. Future Outlook - Managers suggest that convertible bond valuations are unlikely to drop to the lows seen in Q3 2024, with expectations of trading within a higher valuation range over the next 3-4 years [10]. - Opportunities are identified in low-priced convertible bonds, with a focus on sectors like technology and new consumption as market conditions evolve [10][11]. - The convertible bond market is anticipated to experience three phases: price recovery of low-priced bonds, balanced valuation expansion, and eventual high volatility and high returns [10].