Investment Rating - The report suggests an optimistic outlook for thermal power, particularly with Tianjin's adjustment of capacity price from RMB 100 to RMB 231 per kilowatt annually, exceeding the expected RMB 165 [4]. Core Insights - The market should refocus on supply and demand dynamics, as recent trends show rising coal prices and falling polysilicon futures, indicating that the economic fundamentals remain unchanged [4]. - There is an excess in new energy supply and early thermal power startups are putting pressure on electricity prices, with national utilization rates for wind and solar power showing slight declines [5]. - The report highlights significant month-on-month declines in real-time average electricity prices in Heilongjiang and Fujian, suggesting discrepancies in forecast data and operational patterns [5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - National utilization rates for wind power were 93.1% in November, down from 96.4% in October, while solar power utilization was 93.7%, down from 94.8% [5]. - In December, Heilongjiang's real-time average electricity price was RMB 56.8/MWh, a 57% decrease, while Fujian's was RMB 93.0/MWh, a 44% decrease, indicating a divergence in expected pricing trends [5]. Energy Storage Policies - Hubei's energy storage capacity pricing policy sets the 2026 capacity price at RMB 165/kW·year, with provisions for low charge/discharge cycles affecting fee recovery [6]. - By 2025, Xinjiang's new storage capacity is projected to reach 20.15 million kW, with significant charging and discharging metrics outlined for both 2024 and 2025 [6]. Market Dynamics in Anhui - Anhui's electricity spot market experienced zero price fluctuation on two occasions, indicating a favorable supply-demand balance, with many companies yet to engage in market transactions [7]. Inter-Provincial Trading Growth - The inter-provincial trading volume reached 1.3 trillion kWh in 2025, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth, with clean energy trading also showing significant increases [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the electricity pricing landscape in China for 2026, highlighting a general decline in electricity prices across the country, with an average decrease of 3 to 4 cents per kilowatt-hour. Some provinces, such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Liaoning, experience declines exceeding 6 cents per kilowatt-hour due to the full implementation of the spot market mechanism and aggressive pricing strategies by electricity sales companies [1][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Long-term Contract Pricing Disparities**: There are significant differences in long-term contract prices across provinces, with thermal power typically priced higher than wind power due to its larger volume and stronger negotiation position. Thermal power prices are usually about 30% higher than long-term base prices, while wind and solar may have discounts [1][17]. - **Arbitrage in Thermal Power**: Thermal power companies engage in arbitrage by signing long-term contracts for specific periods and purchasing low-cost renewable energy from the spot market [1][19]. - **Regional Performance of Renewable Projects**: Renewable project returns are notably higher in economically developed eastern regions like Beijing and Tianjin due to intense competition and fewer projects. In contrast, regions like Ningxia and Xinjiang see higher returns on new projects compared to existing ones due to higher auction pricing [1][14][15]. - **Storage Participation in Market Transactions**: The participation of energy storage in provincial market transactions is gradually advancing, with regions like Shanxi and Shandong benefiting from high benchmark values and significant peak-valley cycles [1][24]. - **Electricity Market Dynamics**: The ability of electricity companies to navigate policy interpretation, supply-demand forecasting, and market analysis is crucial. Accurate short-term weather predictions have become a competitive advantage, but long-term weather forecasting is increasingly necessary [1][25]. Additional Important Insights - **Price Trends and Future Projections**: Coal prices are expected to rise steadily in the coming years, but significant short-term increases are unlikely. The comprehensive actual price of thermal power is projected to decline less than long-term contract prices, with potential increases in competitive bidding scenarios [1][4][22]. - **Impact of Marketization on Demand-side Users**: The marketization of electricity has significantly impacted demand-side users, with many provinces implementing retail price reductions while increasing capacity charges. Future plans include the introduction of full monthly time-of-use retail pricing, allowing users to reduce costs by using electricity during off-peak hours [1][31]. - **Challenges in Weather Forecasting**: The current weather forecasting capabilities are limited to short-term predictions, while the electricity market requires longer-term forecasts, creating a mismatch that relies heavily on national data [1][26]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the electricity market in China as discussed in the conference call, providing insights into pricing trends, regional performance, and the implications of market dynamics.

证券研究报告：电力设备|点评报告 行业投资评级 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2025-12 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 49% 电力设备 沪深300 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 10088.23 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 10950.05 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6107.84 | 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:苏千叶 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110004 Email:suqianye@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 分析师:盛炜 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120008 Email:shengwei@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《国家发改委修定输配电成本监审和 定价办法，我们预计明年整体进入过渡 期——适应"拍卖"机制》- 2025.12.01 电力市场化进一步 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Maintain Buy" [3] Core Insights - The new long-term electricity trading regulations, revised for the first time in five years, aim to promote market pricing and the entry of new entities. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued the "Basic Rules for Long-term Electricity Market," with local implementation details required by March 1, 2026. Long-term trading volume accounted for 95.9% of total market trading volume in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating the importance of this regulation in adapting to the full market entry of renewable energy and establishing a unified national electricity market [2][14] - The new regulations are expected to enhance revenue certainty for thermal and renewable energy companies. They allow for flexible pricing mechanisms linked to monthly coal price indices and spot market averages, reducing the impact of coal price fluctuations on thermal power profits. Green electricity trading is now integrated as a primary trading category, with clear pricing structures established [2][14] - The regulations expand the scope of trading participants to include new entities like virtual power plants and independent storage, defining their rights and obligations. They also eliminate the previously mandated time-of-use pricing for direct market participants, allowing for a more market-driven pricing mechanism [2][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electricity market is undergoing significant regulatory changes aimed at enhancing market efficiency and stability. The new rules are designed to accommodate the increasing integration of renewable energy sources and to create a more flexible and responsive pricing environment [2][14] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68 points, up 1.88%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4657.24 points, up 1.95%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 3115.63 points, up 0.67%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.28 percentage points [62][63] Key Trading Data - In Jiangsu, the average price for centralized bidding in January 2026 was 324.71 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 19.9% year-on-year and 17% below the coal power benchmark price of 391 yuan per megawatt-hour. The total transaction volume was 60.92 billion kilowatt-hours, a decrease of 7.1% from January of the previous year [7][15][16] - In Guangdong, the average transaction price for 2026 was 372.14 cents per kilowatt-hour, reflecting a 5% decrease from the previous year and a 17.8% drop from the coal benchmark price of 453 cents per kilowatt-hour. The total transaction volume increased by 5.4% to 3594.37 billion kilowatt-hours [11][15]

硅铁 供应方面，2025年1—11月硅铁产量为510万吨，较2024年同期增加1.75万吨。其中，甘肃产量增长最为 显著，青海产量降幅最大，内蒙古及宁夏产量维持稳定增长。新增产能方面，近些年，硅铁新增产能以 置换为主，总产能稳步增长。据钢联调研，2026年硅铁产能将达到1041.3万吨，新增产能预计在103.8万 吨。其中，投产确定性较大的产能约为25.2万吨，项目投产多集中在下半年或年底。此外，新疆近两年 审批通过了多个兰炭—硅铁—金属镁项目，也需关注后续项目进度。 2025年铁合金价格震荡下行，核心驱动是供应增速过快和成本支撑下移。 需求端，2025年锰硅需求超预期增长。钢厂盈利情况显著好转，炼钢需求强劲为锰硅增产提供动力。但 受制于锰硅较高的供应水平，厂家持续累库对锰硅价格形成拖累。展望2026年，在钢材终端需求中，出 口及制造业决定边际增量，预计在今年高增长情况下，边际增速将有所放缓，但韧性仍存。因此，对锰 硅而言，在需求端难有大幅增长的情况下，供应仍是决定价格走势的关键因素。 锰矿方面，2025年锰矿供需两旺。开年受加蓬矿减发、下游合金厂补库影响，锰矿港口库存大幅去化。 后续国内粗钢产量居高不下，致 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that industrial power generation in November reached 779.2 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the growth rate for October was 7.9% [1] Group 1: Power Generation Data - In November, the breakdown of power generation showed a decline in thermal power by 4.2% compared to October, while hydropower increased by 17.1%, nuclear power by 4.7%, wind power by 22%, and solar power by 23% [1][3] - From January to November, total industrial power generation was 88,567 billion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [1][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Pricing - The National Energy Administration has penalized five cases of power plants colluding to raise prices, indicating a need for a long-term perspective in the energy market [2] - The second round of electricity pricing mechanisms may see lower prices compared to the first round, with specific prices for wind and solar power in Jiangxi and Jilin showing declines [2] - In Anhui, the retail market settlement price for electricity remained stable at 0.4182 yuan/kWh, with a slight difference from the wholesale market price [4] Group 3: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in the power sector grew by 10.7% from January to November, while overall investment in the secondary industry increased by 3.9% [3] - The manufacturing sector saw a modest investment growth of 1.9%, while the third industry experienced a decline of 6.3% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The integration of digital economy and "dual carbon" strategy is reshaping the global energy system, with technological innovation in energy companies being a key measure of industry competitiveness [1] Group 1: Technological Innovation - Longxin Technology Group has made continuous breakthroughs in integrating AI and energy scenarios, becoming a significant force in driving energy transition [1] - The company has developed the "Longxin Jiugong AI Energy Model," which combines "time series prediction" and "AI agents" to address core industry challenges such as power load forecasting and risk management [2][3] - The model has achieved over 75% accuracy in price difference prediction and over 97% accuracy in load forecasting in actual applications within power spot markets [3] Group 2: Industry Implementation - Longxin Technology has created a scalable business model by coupling AI model technology with actual industry needs, exemplified by the Wuxi Zero Carbon Industrial Park [4] - The park has been recognized as a benchmark for zero-carbon technology parks in Jiangsu Province and has achieved carbon neutrality certification for two consecutive years [4] - The transition to zero-carbon parks is expected to generate over one trillion yuan in investment demand as the country moves towards low-carbon transformation [4] Group 3: Electricity Market Development - The electricity market is rapidly developing, with 28 provinces now participating in the spot market, a significant increase from 8 provinces last year [5] - Longxin Technology has obtained electricity sales qualifications in all 28 provinces, with a projected 300% growth in trading volume by the end of the year [5] - The company has also established a service platform targeting small and medium-sized enterprises, which have not yet entered the electricity market, indicating a vast market potential [5] Group 4: Public Services and Digitalization - Longxin Technology has pioneered internet payment services for public utilities, connecting over 7,000 utility institutions and serving hundreds of millions of households [6] - The "Xindian Tu" platform has created a smart charging network covering 440 cities and over 2.7 million registered users, becoming a leading charging service platform [6][7] - The company emphasizes collaboration with major players in the energy sector to enhance the digitalization of energy assets and expand its service offerings [7][8] Group 5: Global Reach and Future Outlook - Longxin Technology's influence extends to 15 countries and regions, serving over 80 million users globally, promoting Chinese energy digitalization technology along the Belt and Road [8] - The company aims to drive the energy system towards a cleaner, smarter, more efficient, and inclusive direction through technological innovation and alignment with industry and societal needs [8]

另一个西北大省浮出水面 "内蒙项目今年争夺非常惨烈，明年估计会更惨烈。"一位当地投资机构负责人感叹道。 今年随着国内"大干快上"，尤其是GWh级项目频出，国内储能尤其是独立储能，迎来了一场井喷。 这其中内蒙引领全国，2025年度0.35元/kWh的补贴政策直接拉爆了项目的IRR，成为国内独立储能最为赚钱的区域，让各路开发方和投资方云集于 此。 就在近日，内蒙还发布2026年度给予0.28元/kWh的补贴政策，一句话： 接着奏乐接着舞！ 内蒙的独立储能爆了，那下一个内蒙会是谁呢？ 这个得先复盘内蒙这一轮爆发的根源，再来按图索骥的找到下一个潜力股。 01 内蒙为何爆发？ 这有内外两方面的原因。 内部的原因，来自当地新能源产业的自生动力。 内蒙能源圈有句话："头上有风光、脚下有煤炭、手中有电网"。 在我国新能源产业，内蒙是一个特殊的区域，风光资源全国第一，新能源装机全国第一，新能源发电量全国第一，新型储能装机全国第一，尤其是 外送电量连续两年居全国第一，在整个中国庞大的电力系统中，内蒙扮演找着极其重要的能源保障者角色。 业界人称中国第一"充电宝"。 因此，本质上，内蒙古储能市场的爆发，是为其完成整体国家能源转型战略 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The establishment of a silicon material storage platform company enhances confidence in the profitability reversal of the photovoltaic industry. The platform, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, is expected to confirm reasonable pricing and storage targets for polysilicon sales [5][6] - The wind power sector shows strong bidding activity, with domestic land wind turbine bidding reaching 5.06GW in December, indicating sustained high demand [6][7] - The energy storage market is experiencing significant growth, with over 1,600 new user-side storage projects added in the first ten months of 2025, reflecting a 26% increase in project numbers and an 86% increase in installed capacity year-on-year [6][7] - The lithium battery industry is advancing solid-state battery layouts, with companies actively pursuing strategic partnerships and price adjustments in response to rising raw material costs [7][8] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - The establishment of the silicon material storage platform is expected to lead to increased registered capital and improved pricing strategies for polysilicon [5] - Demand remains weak in the short term, with component manufacturers planning significant production cuts in December [6] Wind Power Sector - Domestic land wind turbine bidding has reached 5.06GW, with a notable increase in procurement for both land and offshore wind projects [6] - The average bidding price for new land wind projects has shown a recovery, indicating a positive trend in the market [6] Energy Storage Sector - The user-side energy storage market is rapidly growing, with significant increases in both project numbers and installed capacity [6] - A major independent energy storage project in Inner Mongolia has commenced operations, highlighting the sector's development [6] Lithium Battery Sector - Companies are focusing on solid-state battery innovations and adjusting prices due to rising production costs [7] - The price transmission within the lithium battery supply chain is improving, with leading companies actively managing supply and customer relationships [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities highlights significant regional differentiation in the bidding results for new energy projects in 2026, with East and North China showing better electricity prices compared to the West and South, and wind power prices outperforming solar power prices [1] Group 1: Bidding Results and Regional Differentiation - As of December 8, 2023, 19 provinces have announced their bidding results for new energy projects, with Shandong being the first on September 9, followed by other provinces in subsequent months. The differences in resource endowments, consumption capacity, and grid structures have led to notable variations in policy timing and price levels across regions [1] - The highest clearing price is in Shanghai at 0.4155 yuan/kWh, while the lowest is in Gansu at 0.1954 yuan/kWh. Wind power prices are generally higher than solar power prices, with the largest price difference observed in Shandong, where wind power is priced at 0.3190 yuan/kWh compared to solar at 0.2250 yuan/kWh, a difference of 0.094 yuan/kWh [2] - The bidding results indicate that regions like Gansu, Xinjiang, and Heilongjiang have fully utilized their mechanism electricity quotas, while Shanghai and Tianjin have lower utilization rates of 24% and 23%, respectively, with most provinces exceeding 50% [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The East China region has a strong electricity demand but limited new energy development resources, leading to higher overall price levels. The Southern region has a mature market structure with full coverage of the electricity spot market across five provinces [3] - The Northwest region exhibits characteristics of "resource highlands and price lowlands," with Gansu's wind and solar clearing prices being the lowest nationally. The North China region has a detailed policy design, with rational competition for incremental projects [3] - The Southwest region benefits from abundant resources and multi-energy complementarity, supporting the volatility of wind and solar power, while the Northeast region's policy balances the transition between existing and new projects, resulting in relatively low bidding prices [3]