中泰证券（600918）发布研报称，2025年1-10月，我国光伏新增装机252.9GW，同比增加39.5%，受136 号文政策影响，2025年光伏装机需求前置，二季度抢装显著，三季度短期回落，8月阶段性低点，9月、 10月逐步修复。根据CPIA预测，2025年我国新增光伏装机有望达270-300GW，同比-3%至8%基本持 稳。 报告中称，我国光伏装机将直接影响全球装机情况，展望2026年，光伏行业协会、主流咨询机构并未明 确2026年新增装机预测。该行认为，电力市场化后光伏上网电价有所降低，光伏新投项目可能有阶段性 观察期，但从行业供给侧改革、稳定光伏供需匹配度、保证行业可持续发展趋势来看，预计2026年我国 光伏新增装机有望维持200GW以上。 ...

中金研究 中国大型储能行业正经历从"政策驱动"向"市场化驱动"的关键转折，商业模式逐步清晰、应用场景趋于多元，行业进入规模化、高质量发展的新阶 段。 Abstract 摘要 项目招标数据景气向上，优质电芯供给紧缺。 2025年1-10月国内新型储能招标规模达205.30GWh，同比+45%，央国企集采规模同比+61%，驱动装机规模 持续高增。供给侧头部电芯企业产能利用率接近满产，我们预计供需偏紧态势或将延续至2Q26。 商业模式走向主动价值创造，多元社会资本进场推动储能建设。 "136号文"前，强配项目的价值来源是 "获取新能源路条"，储能价值未能充分体现。"136 号文"后，独立储能可通过"峰谷价差套利+容量市场+辅助服务"发挥真实价值。我们对全国七省区的独立储能经济性进行测算，蒙西、新疆、河北南网资 本金IRR可达10%以上，山西、山东、甘肃在6.5%以上。在此背景下，以专业化基金的形式投资和运营储能电站有望成为大势所趋，多元社会资本加速入 局推动储能建设。 容量电价政策带来短期抢装潮，看好中长期储能需求增长。 我们认为短期内优质节点资源紧缺，在各省容量电价出台的预期下，社会资本纷纷入场，独 立储能有望在 ...

12月4日，第六届全国地方电网与配电网圆桌论坛在北京人民日报社举行。本次论坛作为第八届中国能源产业发展年会的重要组成部 分，论坛以"融入全国统一电力市场，服务地方高质量发展"为主题，汇聚了政策研究者、行业专家与一线实践者，共同探讨地方电网 与配电网在新型能源体系中的关键作用与发展路径。 共识："得配网者，得新型电力系统之未来" 配电网的转型升级，与国家"双碳"战略及能源发展格局息息相关。 目前，我国已成为全球最大的能源生产国和消费国，并且能源结构持续优化，清洁低碳转型步伐明显加快。在此背景下，"十五五"规 划建议进一步明确提出，要加快建设新型能源体系，建设能源强国。 中国国际经济交流中心能源与绿色低碳发展研究部部长、研究员景春梅指出："配电网是能源转型和新能源消纳的主战场。" 景春梅具体阐释了配电网成为"主战场"的三重逻辑：其一，它是新能源消纳的"最后一公里"；其二，它也是新型负荷汇聚的"最后一 公里"；其三，它还是系统灵活性与韧性的"基层单元"。 如今，配电网已不再是电力系统的"配角"，而是新型电力系统中不可或缺的"主角"之一。正因如此，景春梅直言："得配电网者，得 新型电力系统之未来。" 这一判断与德国通 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in domestic photovoltaic (PV) installations in October 2025, with new installations at 12.6GW, representing a year-on-year decrease of 38.3% but a month-on-month increase of 30.4% [1] - Cumulative PV installations from January to October 2025 reached 252.87GW, showing a year-on-year growth of 39.5% [1] - The inverter export value in October 2025 was 4.82 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% but a month-on-month decline of 5.2% [1] Domestic PV Installations - In October 2025, new domestic PV installations were recorded at 12.6GW, down 38.3% year-on-year and up 30.4% month-on-month [1] - Cumulative new PV installations from January to October 2025 totaled 252.87GW, marking a 39.5% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Component Exports - The export value of PV components in October 2025 was 16.08 billion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year but down 19.5% month-on-month [1] - Cumulative component exports from January to October 2025 reached 168.26 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.8% year-on-year [1] - The export volume of PV components in October 2025 was 19.4GW, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 24.3% [1] Inverter Exports - The total inverter export value for the first ten months of 2025 was 53.31 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [2] - In October 2025, the export value of inverters to Europe was 1.7 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year and 9.9% month-on-month [2] - Exports to Asia were 1.5 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-on-year but down 11.5% month-on-month [2] Solar Power Generation - Solar power generation in October 2025 increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a total output of 39.37 billion kWh [2] - The share of solar power in the total industrial power generation was 4.77%, with a slight decrease of 0.86 percentage points month-on-month [2] - Total power generation in October 2025 was 800.2 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [2] Recommended Companies - Companies recommended for investment include Aiko Solar, Longi Green Energy, Daqo New Energy, and others focusing on various segments of the solar industry [3]

证券研究报告 公募REITs三季报： 整体符合预期，稳定优于周期 ※ 核心观点 注：此前我们对解禁的专题研究，见平安固收团队《证券转向超配产业园，未来关注解禁带来的配置机会》20250917 2 • 25Q3季报符合预期，稳定/周期之间有分化。剔除扩募扰动后，25Q3季报收入同比-4%（本文无特殊说明的，均为25Q3数据）。收入、 可供分配完成度分别为95%、98%，边际均有所上行。结构上，延续周期板块下行、稳定板块稳健增长的趋势。按业绩由好至弱，叠加 考虑业绩强弱的延续性，可分为三个梯队，保障房、消费＞经营权＞产业园、仓储。 • 稳定板块：保障房、消费延续稳健增长。剔除扩募扰动后，保障房出租率波动不大。消费收入同比+4%。两个板块剔新券后的收入、可 供分配金额完成度均在100%以上，在各板块中处于较高水平。 • 经营权类延续宽幅波动。正向波动的是环保，收入完成度均达标，且富国首创水务可供分配金额完成度在130%以上。负向波动的主要 是交通、能源、水利。经营权波动多与水光风资源、路网变动等因素有关，一般来说是短期扰动。相对值得跟踪的长期变化是能源的电 力市场化，从25Q3季报来看，各项目电力市场化交易进度有差 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the power equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The power equipment and new energy industry has shown significant market performance over the past year, with a focus on enhancing the utilization of renewable energy through new pricing mechanisms [1][4] - The report highlights the recent order of 143 million yuan received by UBTECH for humanoid robots, indicating strong demand in the robotics sector [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively addressing issues of price disorder in certain industries, which may impact market dynamics [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The power equipment and new energy industry has experienced notable developments, including the introduction of new pricing methods aimed at promoting renewable energy consumption [4] Company Orders - UBTECH's total order amount for humanoid robots in 2025 has reached 1.3 billion yuan, showcasing robust growth in this segment [3] Pricing Trends - The report provides insights into the pricing of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, indicating stability in polysilicon prices and a downward trend in silicon wafer and battery cell prices due to high inventory levels [5][7][8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their strategic positioning in the industry, including Aikang Co., Longi Green Energy, and Daqo New Energy, among others [6][9]

报告导读： 电力需求仍在上升趋势，长期看好火电。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 各地新政限制售电盈利，有利电价企稳；报告日期：2025.11.26 报告作者： 吴杰（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040109 阎石（分析师），登记编号：S0880525070005 各地限制售电公司盈利，抵御恶性竞争，有利电价企稳。 10月全社会用电量8572亿度，YOY+10.4%（9月YOY+4.5%），二产/三产/居民用电量 5688/1609/1155亿度，YOY+6.2%/+17.1%/+23.9%（9月YOY+5.7%/+6.3%/-2.6%）提升，主要还是去年的天气等基数低的原因。预计全年5%以上 用电增速问题不大，三季报后，市场担忧26年长协电价和近期的高煤价，预计长协签订后行业会好转。 各地都在出台售电公司超额收益分成政策。 1、河南要求用户也需承担超额亏损，但上限仅10%。2、广东2026年起，对售电公司月度平均批零差价高于 0.01元/千瓦时的超额部分，按1:9比例分享给用户。同时将公示批零差价最大30家及固定价格均价最高30家售电公司名单。3、目前，河南、陕西、安徽 ...

Core Insights - The critical point for system cost increase is when wind and solar power generation reaches 15%, and the demand for flexible resources increases significantly at 20% [1] - The rapid development of renewable energy necessitates a "soft landing" for the power system, which can be achieved through pricing signals for energy and safety products [1] - There is a natural mismatch between wind and solar resources and demand, with abundant resources in the western regions but concentrated load in the eastern regions, highlighting the need for a unified national electricity market [1] Industry Analysis - The pressure on grid security is increasing, and traditional relay protection theories are inadequate for the new "dual high" power system requirements, with State Grid planning to invest over 650 billion yuan by 2025 [1] - The growth potential of the photovoltaic industry is primarily driven by global climate cooperation and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets, with marketization of electricity helping to alleviate power restriction issues and enhance green electricity consumption capacity [1] - Once the penetration rate of renewable energy exceeds 15%, system costs will enter a rapid increase phase, necessitating optimization of resource allocation through mechanisms like spot markets and carbon markets [1] Company Insights - The photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) tracks the photovoltaic industry index (931151), which selects listed companies involved in silicon materials, wafers, battery cells, modules, and related equipment manufacturing to reflect the overall performance of the photovoltaic industry chain [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for power stocks, expecting a relative return exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [13]. Core Insights - Power stocks' Q3 growth has accelerated, but the rise in coal prices may slow profit growth in Q4. The focus is on the 2026 electricity price negotiations [4]. - Huaneng Power International saw a significant increase of 7.7% this week. Northern power plants are expected to secure favorable electricity prices in 2026, with potential slight declines, but profits will benefit from cost reductions [4]. - The installed capacity for wind and solar power continues to grow rapidly, with national installed capacity reaching 3.72 billion kW from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 17.5% [4]. - The report highlights that the profit growth in power, heating, and water sectors is leading the industrial profit growth, with a total industrial profit of 5.37 trillion RMB from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4]. Summary by Sections Electricity Price Negotiations - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming electricity price negotiations for 2026, particularly in Beijing, where the total market trading volume is projected to be 95 billion kWh, with specific limits on excess profits for power sales companies [4]. Installed Capacity Growth - The Energy Bureau reported that from January to September, the installed capacity for photovoltaic and wind power reached 1.13 billion kW and 0.58 billion kW respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 45.7% and 21.3% [4]. Profit Growth in Power Sector - The report notes that the profit growth in the power sector is significantly higher than other industries, with heating power profits increasing by 14.4% [4].

Summary of Conference Call for Guoneng Rixin Company Overview - Guoneng Rixin is a leading company in the field of renewable energy power forecasting in China, actively expanding into innovative businesses such as electricity trading and virtual power plants, and developing industry-leading meteorological models and technologies [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Guoneng Rixin achieved nearly 500 million CNY in revenue, a year-on-year increase of approximately 37% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 75.43 million CNY, up nearly 42% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 alone, revenue reached 171.9 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 27%, and net profit was 29.45 million CNY, reflecting a 59% increase [2]. Business Segments Traditional Business - The core business remains power forecasting, which accounts for over 60% of total revenue, followed by grid control at over 15% [11]. - The company aims to expand its service stations, targeting 500-600 new centralized stations and 900-1500 distributed stations by the end of 2025, with a total target of 1000-2100 stations [3][4]. Innovative Business - The company is actively developing innovative businesses in energy management and electricity trading, particularly in response to new market policies [5]. - A new service for independent energy storage station management and trading has been launched, addressing operational challenges in the rapidly growing storage market [6]. Market Dynamics - The demand for power forecasting is driven by the increasing installation of distributed energy sources and regulatory requirements for power management [15][16]. - By the end of 2024, it is estimated that there will be around 18,000 commercial distributed stations requiring power forecasting, with significant growth expected in the coming years [19]. Technological Advancements - Guoneng Rixin has developed a large model based on graph neural networks to enhance meteorological forecasting accuracy, improving power forecasting precision by 1-1.5% [30]. - The model is being integrated into both traditional power forecasting and innovative electricity trading services, providing clients with better decision-making support [30][32]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company has successfully controlled costs, leading to a significant increase in operating cash flow despite a decrease in overall gross margin due to a higher proportion of lower-margin equipment sales [34][35]. - The gross margin decline is attributed to the increased share of equipment sales, while service fees maintain a high gross margin of over 95% [35]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about achieving its annual targets and expects continued growth in both traditional and innovative business segments, particularly as market conditions evolve and regulatory frameworks mature [12][14]. - The electricity trading market is anticipated to grow significantly post-2027, driven by policy changes and increased market maturity [48]. Key Takeaways - Guoneng Rixin is well-positioned in the renewable energy sector with strong growth in revenue and profit. - The company is focusing on expanding its service offerings and leveraging technology to enhance forecasting accuracy and operational efficiency. - Future growth is expected from both traditional power forecasting and innovative energy management solutions, with a keen eye on market developments and regulatory changes.