证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 电力 火电出力由降转增，1-5 月绿电交易电量增长近 50% 本周行情回顾：本周（6.16-6.20）上证指数报收 3359.90 点，下跌 0.51%，沪深 300 指数 报收 3846.64 点，下跌 0.45%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2913.94 点，下跌 1.14%， 跑输沪深 300 指数 0.68pct，位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 11 位。 本周行业观点： ➢ 5 月火电发电增速由负转正，水电降幅扩大。根据国家统计局发布数据，5 月份全国 规上发电量 7378 亿千瓦时，同比增长 0.5%，增速比 4 月份放缓 0.4pct；日均发电 238.0 亿千瓦时。1—5 月份，工业发电量 37266 亿千瓦时，同比增长 0.3%，扣除天 数原因，日均发电量同比增长 1.0%。 分品种看，5 月单月，规上工业火电由降转增，水电降幅扩大，核电、风电、太阳能 发电增速放缓。其中，规上工业火电同比增长 1.2%，4 月份为下降 2.3%；规上工业 水电下降 14.3%，降幅比 4 月份扩大 7.8 个百分 ...

绿色电力消费电量也在持续增长。2025年1~5月，中国绿电交易电量达到2209.45亿千瓦时，同比 增长49.2%。2024年，全国绿电交易总量突破2300亿千瓦时，达到2349亿千瓦时，同比增长 237.9%，有效满足了经济社会绿色电力消费需求，能源低碳转型的活力充分释放。 中国电力企业联合会常务副理事长杨昆表示，加快全国统一电力市场建设，常态化开展跨省跨区绿 电交易，进一步推动了电力资源在全国范围的优化配置。今年6月，北京电力交易中心、广州电力 交易中心、内蒙古电力交易公司联合组织蒙西、甘肃等地区送广东跨经营区绿电交易，首次实现跨 三个经营区绿电交易的历史性突破。 与此同时，多元主体有序参与的市场格局已基本形成，持续激发电力市场内生动力。目前中国电力 经营主体已经突破80万家，较2016年增长了近20倍，售电公司达到4000余家，超60万家零售用 户通过零售市场购电，电力市场活跃程度大幅提高，独立储能、虚拟电厂、负荷聚合商等新型主体 蓬勃发展，多元主体友好互动的新型商业模式不断涌现。 （廖睿灵） 前5月绿电交易量超过2200亿千瓦时 同比增长近50% 记者从18日举办的2025年电力市场发展论坛上获悉，今 ...

股票研究/[Table_Date] 2025.06.19 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 股 票 研 究 全球局势不稳，国内稳定溢价 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 [table_Authors] 吴杰(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040109 本报告导读： 近期南方梅雨开始，预计水电出力或增加，下周水电或受益，可以关注。 投资要点： 行 业 双 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Summary] 梅雨到来，需求增加，水电火电皆可看好。如我们上周所说"5 月 长源电力和龙源电力的发电数据均较前 5 月好转，近期南方梅雨或 开始，预计水电出力或增加，夏季的火电和煤炭需求仍需观察"。截 止 6 月 13 日 Q2 现货电价广东同比-1.4%，山东山西-15/-14%，预计 是广东梅雨用电需求大增。 要求分布式光伏自用高比例，实质是将消纳责任"内部化"：（1）浙 江、安徽、江苏、广东等地明确年自发自用电量占发电量的比例暂 不强制要求；山西、辽宁、山东、广西、海南等省（区）余电上网 模式的年自发自用比例需 50%以 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 15 年 月 日 电力 跨省跨区电力应急调度新规出台，" 疆电入渝"首批电源项目投产 本周行情回顾：本周（6.9-6.13）上证指数报收 3377.00 点，下跌 0.25%，沪深 300 指数报收 3864.18 点，下跌 0.25%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2947.49 点，上涨 0.29%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.54pct，位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜 第 10 位。 本周行业观点： ➢ 跨省跨区电力应急调度新规出台，优先市场化，应急保供托底。6 月 13 日， 国家发改委发布公告，就《跨省跨区电力应急调度管理办法（征求意见稿）》 向社会公开征求意见。提出当电力运行中存在安全风险、电力电量平衡缺口 时，优先通过跨省跨区电力中长期交易、现货交易等市场化手段配置资源和 形成价格。当市场化手段不能完全解决问题时，电力调度机构方可在日前、 日内阶段组织实施应急调度。 应急调度电价结算规则： 投资建议：迎峰度夏已至，煤价持续下降，建议关注季度业绩具备弹性的火电板 块。随着电力市场化不断加深，辅助服务需求有望进一步提升，建议重视 ...

Summary of Langxin Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Langxin Group - **Industry**: Energy and Electric Power Key Points and Arguments Business Growth and Strategy - Langxin Group's mature businesses, such as grid digitalization and utility payment platforms, are experiencing stable growth, benefiting from the construction of new power systems and electricity market reforms [2][3] - The aggregation charging business is entering a high-quality development phase, with expectations to reach 48 million platform users and 17 billion kWh of charging volume by 2027, and profitability anticipated next year [2][4] - The company is actively positioning itself in electricity market transactions, aiming for an annual transaction volume exceeding 100 billion kWh by 2027, with platform-based trading becoming a primary growth engine [2][5] Energy Internet Platform - Langxin Group's energy internet platform connects a vast number of users and power assets, accumulating over 500 million meter data users, providing a foundation for electricity trading [2][6] - The company focuses on private car charging needs and utilizes financial empowerment to support the expansion of public charging networks, enhancing urban network share [2][7] Market Opportunities and Challenges - The entry of new energy into the market and price fluctuations will impact small and micro enterprises, with the company’s platform offering electricity sales services at more favorable prices [2][10] - The company has three core advantages in platform-based electronic trading: scene advantage, data advantage, and AI model capability, enhancing trading competitiveness [2][11] Future Projections - By 2027, the company expects to achieve a charging volume of 17 billion kWh and 48 million platform users, with current platform users at 22 million and 1.9 million charging piles connected [2][4] - The company aims to increase its annual electricity trading volume from 6 billion kWh in 2025 to 100 billion kWh by 2027, with a growth rate of approximately 3 to 4 times per year [12][21] Digitalization and Innovation - Langxin Group has established a solid digital foundation through partnerships, accumulating data from over 3000 charging pile operators and 190,000 charging piles [15] - The company is exploring blockchain technology for asset tokenization, enhancing transparency and security in transactions [13][14] Collaboration and Ecosystem Development - The collaboration with Ant Group focuses on enhancing the energy internet strategy, targeting private car charging markets and creating shared value through ecosystem synergies [27] - The company is also working with BYD on fast charging projects and expanding financial services for charging pile expansion needs [29] Risk Management and Financial Services - The company employs risk management strategies by leveraging the dispersed nature of small and micro enterprises, reducing risks associated with large clients [28] - Innovative financial services are being developed to support the growth of new energy assets, with a focus on expanding market opportunities [29] Conclusion - Langxin Group is strategically positioned to capitalize on the growing electricity market and the transition to new energy systems, with a robust plan for growth, digitalization, and innovation in the energy sector [18][26]

Core Insights - The report suggests that spot electricity prices may have bottomed out, leading to potential improvements in valuation and performance for the sector [1] - The analysis indicates that the electricity market is undergoing significant changes, particularly in the context of coal-fired power generation and renewable energy integration [3] Group 1: Coal Power - In northern regions, the proportion of renewable energy is higher, making coal power more scarce during peak times, which could lead to price increases [3] - The report anticipates that after three years of decline, the spot electricity price in Gansu will rise for the first time in 2025, surpassing long-term contracts [3] - In Q1 2025, coal power generation in China decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with major state-owned enterprises experiencing significant drops in electricity output [21][22] Group 2: Hydropower - The report highlights that large hydropower resources are becoming increasingly scarce as most potential sites have been developed, particularly outside Tibet [35] - It is projected that hydropower prices will see a moderate increase during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, driven by further marketization [42] - Major hydropower companies are expected to show stable profit growth, with significant revenue from electricity sales [45] Group 3: Renewable Energy - The report notes that by 2024, the installed capacity of renewable energy in China reached 1.41 billion kilowatts, accounting for 42% of total installed capacity, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.4% from 2020 to 2024 [10][57] - The analysis indicates that the new energy policy aims to stabilize electricity prices and control the growth rate of installed capacity, suggesting a potential slowdown in future capacity additions [3] - The report also points out that the profitability of renewable energy is under pressure due to market dynamics, with significant declines in electricity prices observed in Guangdong [61][62]

证券研究报告：电力|点评报告 发布时间：2025-06-04 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 3180.98 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 3359.79 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2868.51 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-05 2024-08 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 -13% -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 电力 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 南方区域电力市场运行规则进一步完善，看好虚拟 电厂对绿电运营商的赋能 l 投资要点 事件：2025 年 5 月 23 日，国家能源局南方监管局发布《南方区 域电力市场运行规则（试行，2025 年 V1.0 版征求意见稿）》。 l 区域电力市场规则进一步完善 1.1 电能量交易_中长期(1)提升交易便捷度：缩短交易周期，提 高交易频次，实现周、多日、逐 ...

Summary of Langxin Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Langxin Group - **Industry**: Energy Internet and New Energy Key Points and Arguments Energy Internet Platform - The Energy Internet platform has been operational for 12 years, connecting numerous new energy assets such as charging piles and photovoltaics, enhancing asset utilization efficiency and value returns for clients, with an expected annual transaction volume exceeding 100 billion kWh within three years [2][4][5] - The platform has connected over 500 million end users, including 15 million commercial users, who will have future needs to participate in electricity market transactions [2][6] Charging Business Development - The aggregation charging business has nearly 22 million users, collaborating with over 3,000 operators and more than 30 leading automotive companies, covering over 390 cities [2][7] - By 2027, the expected number of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 80 million, with annual public charging market demand reaching 110 billion kWh, targeting a market share of over 25% [2][7][8] Future Growth Strategy - Post-2025, the company will focus on the main track of electric energy, entering a new growth cycle with stable growth in existing digital grid and life payment businesses, and rapid scaling of the charging aggregation platform [3][4] - The company aims to achieve profitability in the charging ecosystem by 2026, with projected charging volumes of 7 billion kWh in 2025, 11 billion kWh in 2026, and a market share exceeding 25% by the end of 2027 [9][10] Market Dynamics and Trading - Langxin has advantages in electricity market trading through scenarios, data, and technology, with a self-developed energy model driven by AI to maximize the value of data and technology [4][10] - The company plans to achieve over 130 billion kWh in transaction volume over the next three years, with specific targets of 6 billion kWh in 2025, 31 billion kWh in 2026, and 110 billion kWh in 2027 [4][13] RWA Model and Financial Innovation - The RWA (Real World Asset) model, in collaboration with Ant Group, provides value-added opportunities through financial innovation, connecting over 500 million end users, with 80% being electricity meter users [6][14] - The choice of the new energy sector for RWA tokenization is due to its large scale and alignment with national energy development strategies, providing a solid foundation for RWA tokens [15][16] Distributed Photovoltaics - Distributed photovoltaics have seen rapid growth, with a connection volume of 25 GW by the end of 2024, expected to reach 50 GW in 2025, providing essential resources for effective electricity trading [12] Challenges and Regulatory Environment - The company faces challenges in policy and regulatory aspects during the RWA issuance process, requiring collaboration with various regulatory bodies [22][24] - The introduction of the Hong Kong stablecoin regulation is expected to stimulate market activity and provide a framework for future transactions [25] Future Directions - The Energy Internet platform is expected to continue growing, reflecting the value of the electricity market and driving further innovation and optimization [27] - The company aims to leverage its extensive experience in asset management, electricity trading, and innovative financial services to create more value for investors [32] Additional Important Insights - The electricity market is projected to reach a scale of 61 billion kWh in 2025, with a focus on converting small and micro-enterprises into electricity trading agents [29][31] - The company has accumulated over 20 years of experience in the energy sector, positioning itself to capitalize on opportunities arising from the national push for electricity marketization [32]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the electricity market in China, particularly focusing on the implementation of the New Energy 136 Document and the acceleration of the spot market, which signifies a shift towards market-oriented electricity pricing [1][1]. Key Points and Arguments - The New Energy 136 Document, effective from June 1, marks a significant step in the marketization of the electricity sector, particularly for new energy sources, which now account for the second-largest share of electricity generation [1][1]. - Over ten provinces have begun long-cycle trial operations of the electricity spot market this year, enhancing the supply-demand relationship in electricity pricing [1][1]. - The introduction of the spot market has led to increased price volatility, with some pilot provinces like Shandong and Shanxi experiencing intraday price fluctuations exceeding 50% [2][2]. - As renewable energy capacity continues to grow, it is expected that more trading cycles will be dominated by renewable sources, which will lower overall price levels. However, traditional thermal power will still play a crucial role during periods of insufficient renewable output, maintaining higher prices during those times [3][3]. - The volatility in price curves is leading to a compression of trading cycles, pushing for weekly, multi-day, and even daily trading to become mainstream [4][4]. - The comprehensive electricity price for thermal power has risen during periods of declining coal prices, indicating a shift towards a model where thermal power is not just about generation but also about price regulation [4][4]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on national comprehensive power companies and northern thermal power companies with performance elasticity, such as: - Jintou Energy - Datang Power (H) - Huaneng International (H+A) - Huadian International (H+A) - Continued recommendations for Waneng Power, Sheneng Co., Huaneng Hydropower, and Guodian Power [4][4]. - For green energy, companies like Xintian Green Energy, Datang New Energy, and Longyuan Power (H) are highlighted. - In the hydropower sector, recommended companies include Yangtze Power, Chuan Investment Energy, Guotou Power, and Huaneng Hydropower [4][4]. Risks - The report outlines several risks associated with the marketization of electricity trading, including: - Price volatility risks due to market fluctuations - Risks from variations in wind and water resources - Significant increases in thermal coal prices - Delays in resource approval for new energy projects - Risks from macroeconomic downturns affecting electricity demand [4][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable performance in 2024, with a reported revenue of 29.619 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.944 billion yuan, up 14.04% year-on-year. However, the first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue to 7.337 billion yuan, down 9.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.011 billion yuan, down 12.82% year-on-year [8] - The company benefits from a tight power supply-demand balance in East China, with coal-fired power generation increasing by 3.5% in 2024, reaching 416.05 billion kWh. The utilization hours for coal-fired power reached 4,953 hours, an increase of 150 hours year-on-year [8] - The company’s long-term performance is stable and predictable, with significant advantages in large-scale, low coal consumption coal-fired units located in Shanghai, which enjoys resilient electricity prices and tight supply-demand dynamics [8] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 29.164 billion yuan in 2025, 30.222 billion yuan in 2026, and 30.577 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -1.54%, 3.63%, and 1.18% respectively [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4.066 billion yuan in 2025, 4.250 billion yuan in 2026, and 4.355 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 3.10%, 4.52%, and 2.47% respectively [7] - The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend policy, with a proposed dividend of 4.5 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, resulting in a payout ratio of 56.27% [8]