Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly defined, but with short - term support and limited medium - term upside [2] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur cracking spread expected to oscillate at high levels; low - sulfur cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Disk expected to oscillate weakly downward [4] Core Views - The global oil market will shift from a deficit of 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 to a surplus of 640,000 barrels per day, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, but the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline. High - sulfur fuel oil demand has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] - The profit of asphalt is prominent, with rising utilization rate this week and expected decline next week. Demand is gradually released in the north and restricted in the south by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - The global oil market will shift from a deficit to a surplus in 2025, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. The weekly global oil inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the destocking rate in the second quarter was 0.4%, lower than expected. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel spread rose by $3.5 per ton last week. However, the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline due to factors such as the widening east - west spread and domestic capacity expansion. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak but has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] Asphalt - The profit of asphalt is prominent, and the domestic refinery utilization rate increased by 5.8% to 35% this week, with an expected decline next week. The weekly asphalt shipment was 392,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons. The overall inventory decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been lowered. The PDH operating rate declined last week, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4]

Group 1 - The recent trade tensions and "reciprocal tariffs" have led to a reassessment of global oil supply and demand expectations, with major institutions like IEA and OPEC lowering their oil demand growth forecasts [1][2] - IEA has significantly revised its oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, reducing GDP support for oil demand from 3.1% to 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively, and expects global oil demand growth to decline from 1.03 million barrels per day to 726,000 barrels per day this year [1][2] - OPEC has also adjusted its oil demand forecast for the first time since December 2024, lowering the expected growth for global daily oil demand in 2025 from 1.45 million barrels to 1.3 million barrels [3] Group 2 - The supply side is influenced by OPEC+'s production decisions, with Saudi Arabia pushing for a tripling of planned production increases, while non-OPEC countries like the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are expected to achieve record production levels this year [2] - EIA has also downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for this year to 900,000 barrels per day, a reduction of about 400,000 barrels per day from its March estimate, citing concerns over the long-term impact of tariff policies on global economic growth [2][3] - Oil prices have seen significant fluctuations, with WTI and Brent crude futures dropping to near four-year lows before rebounding, indicating market volatility due to tariff uncertainties and supply-demand dynamics [4][5]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 4 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心大幅上移，其中 WTI 5 月合约收盘上涨 1.14 美元至 | | | | 62.47 美元/桶，涨幅 1.86%。布伦特 6 月合约收盘上涨 1.18 美元 | | | | 至 65.85 美元/桶，涨幅 1.82%。SC2505 以 482.1 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 8.3 元/桶，涨幅为 1.75%。随着美国总统特朗普试图加大对德黑兰 | | | | 的压力，并将伊朗石油出口降至零，美国发布了针对伊朗石油出 | | | | 口的新制裁。同时发布的新的制裁名单，其中包括一家山东地炼 | | | | 企业，市场担忧风险再度上升。OPEC 表示，该组织已收到伊拉 | | | 原油 | 克、哈萨克斯坦和其他国家进一步减产的最新计划，以补偿超过 | 震荡 | | | 商定配额的产量，这进一步提振了石油价格。EIA 表示，上周美 | | | | 国原油库存增加，而汽油和馏分油库存下降。截至 4 月 11 日当 | | ...