Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the rapid development and potential of intelligent driving technology, highlighting its transformative impact on urban mobility and the automotive industry [1][2][3]. Group 2: Technology Engine Behind Intelligent Driving - The end-to-end architecture is a significant innovation in intelligent driving, reducing data annotation difficulty and optimizing data processing through unique algorithms, which enhances vehicle responsiveness to road conditions [2][3]. - The introduction of visual language models and cloud models improves the system's ability to handle complex scenarios, akin to equipping vehicles with sharper "eyes" [3]. Group 3: Current Development of Intelligent Driving - The high-speed Navigation on Autopilot (NOA) feature is expected to be scaled up in 2024, becoming a standard for intelligent driving vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan [5]. - The penetration rate of urban NOA is projected to reach 6.5% in 2024, driven by increased consumer acceptance and reduced costs, expanding its availability to more consumers [7]. Group 4: Business Model of Intelligent Driving - The L2++ intelligent driving software faces challenges in charging fees due to low consumer willingness to pay, leading most automakers to standardize systems to accumulate users and data [11]. - Some leading automakers are exploring buyout or subscription payment models, with promotional activities to attract customers [11][12]. Group 5: Benefits of Urban NOA - Urban NOA is expected to drive sales of high-configured, high-margin models, as consumers are likely to prefer higher-end vehicles once the technology gains market acceptance [13][14]. - The overlap in technology requirements between Robotaxi and urban NOA is anticipated to enhance intelligent driving system capabilities, potentially leading to a shift towards mobility services by 2025 [15]. Group 6: Globalization of Intelligent Driving Industry - China's late start in intelligent driving is countered by rapid development, with domestic companies gaining advantages in technology and production experience, positioning them favorably in the global market [16]. - Collaborations between joint venture automakers and domestic intelligent driving companies are expected to facilitate access to international projects and opportunities for global expansion [16][17].

Group 1 - The intelligent driving industry is undergoing a dual reassessment of technology and capital due to stricter regulations and industry norms, with a focus on "explainability," "high availability," and "scalable mass production capabilities" [2] - Yuanrong Qixing, established in 2019, is attempting to build recognition through its VLA model (Vision-Language-Action) that evolves from an end-to-end architecture [2][5] - The VLA model incorporates natural language understanding and generation capabilities, allowing the system to provide behavior explanations in complex scenarios, such as recognizing and adapting to variable traffic rules [5][6] Group 2 - In 2023, Yuanrong Qixing partnered with Great Wall Motors, launching the Weipai Lanshan model, which sold over 30,000 units in four months, capturing approximately 15% of the urban NOA market by Q4 2024 [6][7] - The company has raised a total of $300 million from investors including Alibaba, with an additional $100 million investment from Great Wall Motors, aimed at technology R&D, advancing the VLA model, and expanding overseas [6][7] - Yuanrong Qixing's Mapfree solution reduces reliance on high-precision maps, achieving point-to-point driving assistance at one-third the cost of traditional mapping solutions, reflecting a trend towards reducing dependency on external resources [6][7] Group 3 - By early 2025, Yuanrong Qixing plans to have 10 models in mass production, with over five models featuring the VLA model, amidst a projected increase in domestic L2 and above driving assistance penetration to 65% by 2025 [7] - The industry is shifting from "function addition" to "system capability competition," with automakers increasingly considering system stability, product explainability, and scenario coverage in their procurement logic [7] - The current phase represents a critical window for Yuanrong Qixing to validate its VLA model's engineering capabilities and establish a broader network of partnerships with OEMs [7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment outlook for the automotive sector, particularly in the areas of advanced driving and humanoid robotics, driven by technological advancements and market dynamics [3][7]. Core Insights - Embodied intelligence is identified as the strongest industrial trend in the automotive sector, with smart driving and humanoid robots being the two key directions [3]. - The report forecasts a significant increase in the penetration rate of advanced driving systems, expected to exceed 15% by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 200% [3][10]. - The supply chain for smart driving components, including chips and lidar, is highlighted as a high-value investment area due to its explosive growth potential [4][27]. Summary by Sections Advanced Driving - Advanced driving is entering a phase of explosive growth, with a projected penetration rate of over 70% in the next 2-3 years [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the Tier0.5 model versus full-stack self-research in data acquisition and customer response speed, with full-stack self-research expected to gain a competitive edge [3][20]. - The Robotaxi segment is anticipated to reach a tipping point by 2025, with operational costs aligning with traditional ride-hailing services [3][26]. Humanoid Robotics - The humanoid robotics sector is on the verge of commercialization, with significant advancements expected by 2025, particularly in high-cost scenarios [5][35]. - The report identifies key components such as dexterous hands and sensors as critical to the humanoid robotics supply chain, with high average selling prices (ASP) and barriers to entry [5][48]. - The Chinese supply chain is expected to rise significantly, contributing to the cost reduction and mass production of humanoid robots [5][48]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The report highlights the increasing penetration and localization rates of smart driving chips, with Nvidia and Tesla leading the market [27][29]. - The laser radar market is also projected to see significant growth, with major players like Hesai and RoboSense capturing substantial market shares [31][33]. - The anticipated reduction in costs for smart driving systems is expected to make advanced driving features standard in vehicles priced above 200,000 RMB by 2025 [30][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several companies in the automotive sector, including XPeng Motors, Li Auto, BYD, SAIC Motor, Great Wall Motors, and Leap Motor [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that by 2025, advanced intelligent driving (high-level AD) will see improved user experience and reduced prices, transitioning from a trial phase to widespread adoption among consumers [14][20]. - The penetration rates for L2.5 and L2.9 intelligent driving are projected to reach 3.5% and 10.1% respectively by November 2024, with expectations of further growth to 16% for highway NOA and 14% for urban NOA by 2025 [14][24]. - The report highlights the shift towards end-to-end architecture in intelligent driving systems, which allows for higher performance limits and seamless data transmission, enhancing the overall driving experience [30][31]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong engineering capabilities and advantages in data, computing power, and funding, such as XPeng Motors, Li Auto, and BYD, as well as third-party suppliers like Desay SV and Kobot [5][10]. Market Trends - The report notes that the intelligent driving market is evolving, with a focus on enhancing user experience through features like "human-like" driving capabilities and the implementation of end-to-end architectures [14][20]. - The price of high-level intelligent driving systems is expected to decrease significantly, with current models priced below 100,000 and 150,000 yuan for highway and urban NOA respectively [24][28]. Technological Developments - The report discusses the advancements in end-to-end architecture, which is gaining traction among automotive manufacturers, allowing for improved data processing and decision-making capabilities [30][31]. - It also mentions the importance of AI-driven models and the need for automotive companies to adapt their organizational structures to support these technological shifts [15][41]. Competitive Landscape - The report outlines the competitive dynamics among leading automotive companies, highlighting their respective advancements in intelligent driving technologies and the rapid iteration of their systems [41][45]. - Companies like Tesla, Li Auto, and XPeng Motors are noted for their significant investments in R&D and their ability to push updates and improvements quickly [42][46].

高速 NOA 之后，供应商们开始比拼城市智驾的能力。 文丨张家豪 编辑丨程曼祺 我们独家了解到，智驾方案商元戎启行近日完成了 1 亿美元 C 轮融资，由国内头部车企长城汽车集团独家 投资。 元戎启行目前已完成 5 轮融资，累计融资金额超 5 亿美元，股东包括复星锐正、云启资本、阿里巴巴、耀 途资本和东风资产等。据了解，元戎启行目前约有 700 名员工。 依靠端到端辅助驾驶方案，元戎启行在今年一季度成为长城供应商。据了解，今年 8 月发布的长城新蓝山 上，已搭载了由元戎提供的智驾方案，目前新蓝山已支持保定、石家庄、武汉、广州、郑州、西安等 9 座城 市的城区领航辅助驾驶，即业内所称的 "城区 NOA" 功能。 不久后的 10 月，吉利与奔驰合资品牌 Smart 旗下 smart 精灵#5 上市。据了解，该车型也采用了元戎启行提 供的无图城区 NOA 功能。 市场现在一般视 "基础自适应巡航" 等功能为低阶智驾，高速 NOA 为中阶智驾，城区 NOA 为高阶智驾。 长城新蓝山和 smart 精灵#5 的上市，意味着元戎启行已成为第三家能提供城区 NOA 功能的高阶智驾量产供 应商。而直到今年上半年，全球第三方供应 ...