Group 1 - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is expected to face a decline in the second half of the year due to ongoing interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and a weak local economy, with forecasts suggesting a peak at 62 cents against the US dollar by year-end [1] - Kiwibank predicts that if the RBNZ lowers borrowing costs, the NZD could drop to 60 cents [1] - Despite signs of stabilization in the New Zealand economy, the recovery remains in its early stages, with a persistently weak job market [1] Group 2 - The NZD has appreciated approximately 9% against the US dollar in the first half of 2025, driven by a general weakness in the US dollar, but its performance lags behind most G10 currencies [1] - Brown Brothers Harriman's senior strategist Elias Haddad suggests that if US fiscal concerns worsen and political pressure leads to Federal Reserve rate cuts, the NZD could rise to 64 cents by December [2] - Seasonal trends indicate that the NZD typically enters a weak period in the third quarter, with an average decline of about 2.1% against the US dollar over the past decade [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces increasing risks of inflation remaining below target due to economic weakness in the second quarter [1] Group 1 - The risk of inflation being below the target is greater than the risk of it being above the target [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member, Centeno, indicates that the economic weakness in the second quarter may exacerbate the risk of inflation being too low, suggesting that the risk of inflation falling below expectations is greater than the risk of it exceeding expectations [1] Economic Outlook - The second quarter is characterized by economic weakness, which could lead to lower inflation rates [1] - The risks associated with inflation being lower than anticipated are emphasized as more significant than those of inflation being higher than expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, indicates that the direction of interest rates is downward [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Current inflation is entirely driven by administrative pricing factors [1] - Signs of weakness are emerging in the economy and labor market [1] Group 2: Trade Policy Impact - It is too early to assess the impact of tariffs and trade policies on prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that uncertainty and weak demand are impacting corporate investment in the UK [1] - Recent signs of economic weakness have become more pronounced [1] - The Bank of England is closely monitoring the situation regarding the rebound of inflation in the UK [1] - Rising food inflation has been added to the Bank's list of concerns [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hungarian Ministry of Economic Affairs indicates that the economic weakness is primarily driven by insufficient investment and exports [1] Group 1 - The lack of investment is a significant factor contributing to the economic downturn [1] - Export deficiencies are also highlighted as a critical issue affecting the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada's Governor Macklem indicated that while the economic performance is relatively weak, there has not been a significant or sharp decline in the economy [1] Economic Performance - The Canadian economy is showing signs of weakness, but it is not experiencing a drastic downturn [1]

Core Viewpoint - Australia's economy showed weaker-than-expected performance in the first quarter, reinforcing expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia to adopt a dovish stance and further ease monetary policy [1] Economic Performance - Australia's GDP growth in the first quarter was only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4% [1] - The annual growth rate was reported at 1.3%, compared to the anticipated 1.5% [1] Market Expectations - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in July is close to 90%, an increase from approximately 70% the previous day [1] - Financial traders expect the cash rate to be around 3.1% by the end of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - HP Inc. reported a disappointing profit outlook and lowered its full-year earnings forecast due to economic weakness and the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to a significant drop in after-hours trading [1] Financial Performance - For the second fiscal quarter ending April 30, HP's revenue was $13.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, exceeding market expectations [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.71, while the average expectation was $0.81 [1] - HP adjusted its full-year adjusted EPS forecast from $3.45-$3.75 to $3.00-$3.30, significantly below the expected $3.56 [1] Market and Economic Conditions - CEO Enrique Lores indicated that rising economic uncertainty related to tariffs is negatively impacting computer demand, more than previously anticipated [1] - The overall economic environment has changed significantly since February, with noticeable shifts in consumer and business confidence [2] - The personal computer market, which had shown signs of recovery, is being hindered by tariffs [2] Business Operations - HP's personal systems business, which includes PCs, saw a revenue increase of 7% to $9 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $8.8 billion [3] - The company is increasing production in Vietnam, Thailand, India, Mexico, and the U.S., with nearly all products sold in North America expected to be produced outside of China by the end of June [1] - Lores mentioned that the impact of customers purchasing in advance of tariffs was "quite small" [4] Future Outlook - Lores expressed that the company expects to fully offset trade-related cost increases by the fourth quarter [5]

美联储主席鲍威尔：鉴于通胀达到的水平，经济疲软之后通胀适度超调的想法已变得无关紧要。 ...