Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the independent energy storage sector, highlighting the economic viability and significant demand growth in the market [2][3]. Core Insights - The transition from mandatory energy storage to independent energy storage is underway, with local governments implementing capacity price compensation policies to establish a market-oriented revenue mechanism [2][3]. - The domestic energy storage demand forecast has been revised upward, with expectations of continued strong growth, particularly in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [2][3]. - The supply of energy storage cells is expected to remain tight until the second half of 2026, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative business models and integrated system solutions, which are expected to enhance profitability for companies with technological and resource advantages [2][3]. Summary by Sections PART 1: Capacity Price Policies and Independent Storage Models - The shift from mandatory energy storage to independent storage is supported by new policies that provide stable cash flow through capacity price compensation [2][3]. - The report outlines the differences in revenue structures and economic viability between mandatory and independent storage models, with independent storage showing superior profitability potential [11][36]. PART 2: Revised Domestic Energy Storage Demand Forecast - The report projects that domestic energy storage installations will reach 149 GWh in 2025 and 194 GWh in 2026, with a long-term forecast of 340 GWh by 2030 [2][3]. - The demand for energy storage is significantly driven by the development of data centers, which are expected to account for one-third of total energy storage demand by 2030 [2][3]. PART 3: Supply Constraints and High-Quality Development - The report anticipates a continued shortage of energy storage cells until the second half of 2026, with global demand expected to reach 521 GWh in 2025 and 710 GWh in 2026 [2][3]. - The focus on high-quality development in the energy storage industry is expected to benefit leading companies, as well as improve the performance of second-tier players [2][3]. PART 4: Valuation Comparison and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as CATL, Sungrow, and others, while also highlighting the potential of emerging players in the market [2][3]. - The overall sentiment is bullish on the large-scale energy storage sector, driven by strong demand in Europe and emerging markets, as well as favorable policies in the U.S. [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies regarding direct green electricity connections are seen as a significant breakthrough for promoting renewable energy consumption and meeting EU carbon tariff requirements, following the issuance of the 650 and 1192 documents [1] Group 1: Policy Developments - The 650 document encourages private enterprises to invest in direct green electricity connection projects, while the 1192 document clarifies the pricing mechanism for nearby renewable energy consumption, serving as a crucial supplement to the 650 document [1] - The 1192 document emphasizes a "who benefits, who bears" principle for the costs associated with stable supply services in the electricity system, ensuring equal participation of direct green electricity connections in the electricity market [3] Group 2: Objectives and Benefits - Direct green electricity connections aim to alleviate the pressure on renewable energy consumption at the generation end, reduce electricity costs for users, and assist export enterprises in managing carbon footprints and complying with international green trade regulations [2] - The model is particularly beneficial for high-energy-consuming industries such as data centers, steel, and cement, as it accelerates the green electrification process and reduces reliance on public electricity grids [2] Group 3: Economic Considerations - The new pricing mechanism introduced in the 1192 document is more favorable for renewable energy investors, as it reduces system operation and line loss costs, thereby creating a reasonable price difference for investors [3] - The economic viability of direct green electricity projects is influenced by regional resource endowments and policy differences, necessitating detailed calculations by developers and electricity users [5] Group 4: Implementation Challenges - Despite the promising outlook, the lack of clear operational pathways for direct green electricity connections has resulted in limited market response to the new policies [4] - Significant financial pressures arise from the need for dedicated line construction, and the mismatch in lifecycle between power sources and load enterprises may impact project investment returns [4] - The current policies may have conflicting elements, complicating the decision-making process for renewable energy investors regarding whether to opt for direct connections or grid integration [4][5]

论坛现场 每经记者 周逸斐 摄 每经记者｜周逸斐 每经编辑｜陈旭 每经河北崇礼9月25日电（记者周逸斐）9月22日至26日，中国电力企业联合会主办的2025新型电力系统发展（崇礼）论坛在河北崇礼举办。 一位不愿具名的电力交易机构负责人接受《每日经济新闻》记者现场采访时表示，《通知》主要是配合近期发布的《关于有序推动绿电直连发展有关事项的 通知》等政策，明确界定了各方主体应向电网支付的具体费用金额。同时文件中还包含了一些优惠减免措施，有利于推动绿电直连以及源网荷储等相关项目 的开展。 《每日经济新闻》记者在现场注意到，电力现货市场以及新能源全面入市等方面的最新成果与挑战，成为政府部门、企业及学术界探讨的重点。 上述负责人表示，国际上对绿电直连的认可度相对较高，而很多出口企业又面临着碳考核。随着新能源成本的下降，一些企业也开始考虑通过采用绿电直连 的方式，在一定程度上降低成本、提升效率。 今年，我国发布《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革 促进新能源高质量发展的通知》，提出将推动新能源上网电价全面由市场形成。北京电力交易中心 副总经理李竹在大会上透露，今年1~8月，新能源参与市场化交易电量已经接近6500亿千瓦时， ...

建议加快输配电价、电力市场化改革，尽快出台各省落地方案。 "政策明确了绿电直连的合理与合法性，有利于新能源消纳和满足欧盟碳关税的相关要求，这是基于650号文的重大突破。" 在日前召开的绿电直连与地方行动研讨会上，国网能源研究院有限公司研究员田士君在解读《关于完善价格机制促进新能源发电就近消纳的通知》（下 称"1192号文"）时表示。 今年5月，国家发改委等部门发布650号文（即《关于有序推动绿电直连发展有关事项的通知》），鼓励民营企业等经营主体投资绿电直连项目；后于9月 发布1192号文，明确新能源就近消纳的输配电价缴费机制，被视为对650号文价格机制的重要补充。 降本减碳 绿电直连即风能、太阳能、生物质等新能源电源不接入公共电网，而是通过专用线路与单一电力用户直接连接。行业人士认为，缓解发电端新能源消纳压 力、降低负荷侧用电成本、帮助出口企业应对碳足迹管理和国际绿色贸易新规要求，是其三大主要目标。 "通过物理专线确保企业真正用上看得见的清洁电。"博众智合能源转型中国区总裁涂建军指出，绿电直连不但会降低用电成本，更会帮助企业应对欧盟 CBAM等相关挑战，为出口型企业提供绿色竞争力。 业内认为绿电直连项目的另一 ...

AI"探电"：SST 重塑未来 AIDC 供电架构 20250923 摘要 固态变压器（SST）凭借高效率（全链路效率提升 4-5%）、体积小 （占地面积为传统方案的 1/3 至 1/2）、灵活性高和预制化设计等优势， 有望成为下一代数据中心供电架构的优选方案，尤其是在高密度、空间 紧张的数据中心。 北美市场变压器供应紧张，单位成本自 2019 年来上升超 77%，交付周 期长达 46 周，SST 凭借其快速部署特性，更适配北美 AIDC 建设需求， 有望成为下一代供电方案。 国内政策利好频出，如绿电直连政策和新型电力系统建设试点，强调算 力与电力协同及绿色算力，为数据中心增效减碳提供机会，SST 高度适 配绿电直连和源网荷储一体化系统。 尽管 SST 初始投资成本较高，但通过精简中间环节和紧凑设计减少设备 和线缆使用量及施工量，全生命周期成本具备优势，且随着技术成熟， 降本空间大，投资竞争力强。 典型 SST 采用三级能量转换结构，包括 ACDC 输入级、高频 DCDC 隔 离级和输出级。主流拓扑方案基于 ISOP 架构，即输入端串联输出端并 联，设计成熟且拓展方便。 Q&A 固态变压器（SST）在数据中心 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of AI computing power centers (AIDC) is on the rise, and solid-state transformers (SST) are expected to become the preferred solution for future data center power supply architectures due to their high efficiency, compact size, flexibility, and prefabricated design [2][6]. Group 1: SST Technology and Market Potential - SST is anticipated to become the optimal technology route as AI power supply architecture upgrades to 800V HVDC, with major cloud providers increasing capital expenditure and accelerating AIDC construction [2][10]. - SST offers significant performance advantages over traditional UPS supply chains, including over 3 percentage points improvement in efficiency, 60% reduction in footprint, and 75% decrease in installation and debugging time [3][16]. - The initial investment cost of SST is currently high, but there is substantial potential for cost reduction as core components like power semiconductor devices and amorphous nano-crystalline materials mature [3][12]. Group 2: Industry Landscape and Competitive Positioning - Major global AIDC players like Eaton and Delta have early reserves in SST solutions, while domestic companies are entering the market from traditional power equipment, AI power supply, and solar storage sectors [3][27]. - Companies with deep understanding of power electronics, high-frequency transformers, and mid-voltage processing, along with rich experience in data center projects, are expected to stand out in the SST market [3][28]. Group 3: Policy and Green Energy Integration - The introduction of policies supporting green electricity direct connection presents new opportunities for SST promotion in data centers, emphasizing the importance of green computing [14][16]. - SST is well-suited for scenarios that require collaboration between computing power and electricity, aligning with the "AI+" development direction [14][16]. Group 4: Technical Advantages of SST - SST significantly enhances space utilization and power supply efficiency, making it a strong candidate for direct current power supply in data centers [16][22]. - The modular design of SST allows for prefabricated installation, reducing construction cycles to less than 90 days and simplifying maintenance [22][24]. - SST supports integration with renewable energy sources, enhancing green energy consumption and meeting the requirements for integrated source-grid-load-storage systems [22][24].

Group 1: Green Electricity Direct Connection Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have jointly issued a notice to promote the development of green electricity direct connection, aiming to explore innovative models for the integration of new energy production and consumption [1] - The policy is the first national-level regulation regarding green electricity direct connection, balancing efficiency and fairness, and aims to optimize the power grid allocation mechanism [1] - The implementation of this policy is expected to facilitate the local consumption of new energy, meet actual green electricity demands, and reduce costs for end users [1] Group 2: Waste-to-Energy Industry Outlook - According to CITIC Securities, the waste-to-energy industry is expected to see a narrowing revenue decline in the first half of 2025, with performance stabilizing and improving trends in both operational and non-operational aspects [2] - Renewable energy subsidy funds have reached a high point since 2020, indicating that the profit and cash flow mismatch issues faced by waste-to-energy companies may be resolved, leading to potential revaluation of undervalued companies in the sector [2] - The industry is showing positive signals for dividends in the first half of 2025, with expectations for increased returns [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - China Everbright Environment (00257.HK) reported a 10% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of the year, but a 23% increase in pre-tax profit when excluding one-time projects, exceeding expectations [3] - The company has increased its interim dividend by 1 Hong Kong cent, with a payout ratio of 42%, up 7 percentage points year-on-year, and is expected to have an attractive annual yield of 6.5% [3] - The company has adjusted its earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 upwards by 23% to 38%, reflecting improvements in gross margins and reduced impairment losses [3] Group 4: YUEFENG Environmental Protection Developments - YUEFENG Environmental Protection (01381) is a leading company in the waste-to-energy sector, having received a total of 3,331,857 green electricity certificates for its 13 waste incineration power projects [4] - The company’s Yingkou waste incineration project has been certified for carbon reduction, marking the first instance of a waste-to-energy project in China approved under the voluntary carbon standard in 12 years [4] - The company is expected to pursue low-carbon production and certification of emission reductions for more projects in the future [4]

Group 1: Green Electricity Direct Connection Policy - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have jointly issued a notice to promote the development of green electricity direct connection, aiming to explore innovative models for the integration of new energy production and consumption [1] - The policy is the first national-level regulation regarding green electricity direct connection, balancing efficiency and fairness, and aims to facilitate local consumption of new energy and meet actual green electricity demands [1][2] - The policy supports the direct connection of new energy generation with data centers, enhancing energy efficiency and cost reduction for end users [1][2] Group 2: Waste-to-Energy Industry Outlook - The waste-to-energy industry is expected to see a narrowing decline in revenue in the first half of 2025, with signs of stabilization and improvement in both operational and non-operational aspects [2] - Renewable energy subsidy funds have reached a high point since 2020, indicating potential resolution of profit and cash flow mismatches for waste-to-energy companies, leading to a possible revaluation of undervalued firms [2] - Positive signals for industry dividends are emerging, with expectations for increased returns in the sector [2] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Everbright Environment (00257.HK) reported a 10% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of the year, but a 23% increase in pre-tax profit when excluding one-time projects, exceeding expectations [3] - Everbright Environment's interim dividend increased by 1 Hong Kong cent, with a payout ratio of 42%, up 7 percentage points year-on-year, and projected annual returns of 6.5% [3] - Guangdong Environmental Protection (01381) is a leading company in the waste-to-energy sector, having received over 3.3 million green electricity certificates for its projects, and is actively pursuing low-carbon production and emission reduction certifications [4]

曾经"哪里风大往哪建"的风电项目投资逻辑，正在被"哪里用电往哪建"的新规则取代。 全国新能源消纳监测预警中心数据显示，截至2025年7月，全国风电平均利用率为93.8%。河北、内蒙古、黑龙江、甘肃、青海、新疆等地风电利用率已 降至90%左右，西藏地区更甚已降至69.4%，弃风限电问题正逐步严重。与此同时，136号文明确要求，新能源项目上网电量原则上全部进入电力市场，这 标志着风电投资正式进入"负荷为王"的新时代。 01 136号文下的电价变革和收益重构 136号文的出台堪称风电行业的"分水岭"政策。这份由国家发改委发布的文件最核心的变化是：彻底打破了过去风电电价"一口价"的模式，要求新能源项 目上网电量原则上全部进入电力市场，通过市场交易形成电价。 更关键的是建立了"差价结算机制"——当市场交易价格低于机制电价时给予补偿，高于机制电价时则扣除差价，这让靠近负荷中心的风电项目获得了天然 的价格优势。 几乎同步推进的绿电直连政策，则从物理层面重塑了风电的消纳路径。2025年5月，国家发改委与能源局联合发布的《关于有序推动绿电直连发展有关事 项的通知》鼓励各类经营主体投资绿电直连项目，为新能源并网消纳提供"直通车" ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent notice from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration marks a shift from "planned consumption" to "active consumption" through market pricing, establishing a dynamic pricing coupling mechanism between "renewable energy + nearby load" [1][3][7] Summary by Sections Policy Implementation - The notice will be implemented starting October 1, requiring that renewable energy projects have a self-consumption ratio of at least 60% of total available generation and 30% of total electricity consumption, with new projects from 2030 needing a minimum of 35% [1][3] Hard Constraints on Nearby Consumption - The policy sets quantifiable thresholds for self-consumption ratios and includes technical requirements for metering and full-cycle supervision, addressing long-standing issues of unclear consumption responsibilities and weak data regulation [3][5] Impact on Power Generation and Grid - The self-consumption policy compels renewable energy developers to optimize generation curves and integrate storage solutions, enhancing local green energy utilization and alleviating grid pressure [4][6] - The notice clarifies the service scope and pricing for public grids, guiding power companies to optimize capacity configurations and defining economic responsibilities in nearby consumption [4][6] Market Participation and Efficiency - The notice activates the potential for nearby balancing by granting clear market identities to nearby consumption projects, enabling them to participate directly in electricity spot markets and enhance demand response capabilities [4][7] Addressing Renewable Energy Challenges - The root of renewable energy consumption challenges lies in the mismatch of time, with renewable generation often falling short of meeting year-round demand, necessitating storage or flexible resources to balance supply and demand [8] - The policy proposes both nearby consumption and large-scale remote generation models to create a distributed consumption system that improves grid flexibility [8] Measurement and Data Management - The transition from macro-level statistics to micro-level sensing in measurement systems is crucial for the intelligent operation of the new power system, requiring real-time and precise information on every key link [10][11] Future Development and Strategy - The quantification of self-consumption ratios will alter project development strategies, emphasizing the need for renewable projects to align closely with stable load users and optimize investment to avoid overcapacity [12]