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美债收益率涨跌不一,10年期美债收益率涨1.15个基点
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-30 23:05
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 每经AI快讯,周二(9月30日),美债收益率涨跌不一,2年期美债收益率跌1.42个基点报3.606%,3年 期美债收益率跌0.54个基点报3.616%,5年期美债收益率涨0.52个基点报3.737%,10年期美债收益率涨 1.15个基点报4.148%,30年期美债收益率涨2.83个基点报4.731%。 ...
恒信证券|现货黄金日内跌幅扩大至1%,避险资产承压背后逻辑
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 12:01
9月30日国际市场消息,现货黄金价格日内跌幅进一步扩大至 1%,短线走弱趋势明显。作为传统避险资产,黄金价格走势往往与美元、利率预期以及地缘 风险密切相关。本次回调既反映出市场对美联储政策预期的再度调整,也体现了投资者风险偏好的阶段性回升。本文将从行情回顾、驱动因素、市场解读与 未来展望四个方面,分析黄金短期承压的背后逻辑。 根据交易行情显示,9月30日欧洲交易时段,现货黄金价格由盘初小幅下跌逐步扩大跌幅,日内跌幅达到 1%。在过去一周,黄金价格震荡加剧,多次冲高 回落,反映出市场情绪的反复。 1. 美元与利率预期走强 近期美国经济数据表现相对稳健,就业与通胀指标未出现明显回落,使得市场对美联储年内降息幅度的预期有所降温。美元指数走强,10年期美债收益率升 至相对高位,均对黄金价格形成压制。 2. 风险偏好回升 部分风险资产(如美股与部分新兴市场股指)表现稳健,投资者情绪有所恢复。风险偏好上升,削弱了对黄金的配置需求。 3. 技术面因素 黄金此前在关键阻力位附近遇阻,多空资金博弈激烈。日内跌幅扩大至1%,也可能与部分技术性抛盘、止损单触发有关,加剧了短期波动。 4. 地缘与宏观变量的暂时缓和 近期市场对部分地 ...
美债收益率集体下跌,10年期美债收益率跌4.26个基点
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-29 22:40
Group 1 - The core point of the article is the collective decline in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities on September 29, with notable decreases in short-term and long-term bonds [1][2]. Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 1.84 basis points to 3.620% [1]. - The 3-year Treasury yield decreased by 3.08 basis points to 3.622% [1]. - The 5-year Treasury yield dropped by 3.47 basis points to 3.732% [1]. - The 10-year Treasury yield declined by 4.26 basis points to 4.137% [1]. - The 30-year Treasury yield fell by 5.09 basis points to 4.703% [1].
金价维持强势,警惕长假海外波动
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:56
Report Overview - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Author: Long Aoming from Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation after surging. The price of New York gold rose from $3,700 to $3,800, and the corresponding main contract price of Shanghai gold futures rose from 830 yuan to 860 yuan. In the short term, the simultaneous rise of the gold price, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index was likely due to geopolitical tensions. The U.S. continuously pressuring Russia accelerated the upward movement of the gold price. Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the gold price has been on an upward trend, breaking through the oscillation range since the second quarter with an accelerating upward momentum. After a short - term correction around the Fed's interest - rate meeting on September 18, the gold price reached a new high, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. With China approaching the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, attention should be paid to overseas market fluctuations [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report provides a graph showing the relationship between the COMEX gold futures closing price and the U.S. dollar index, but no specific textual description of the weekly trend other than the price changes of gold is given [7]. 3.1.2 Index Percentage Changes | Index | September 26 | September 19 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,789.80 | $3,719.40 | 1.89% | | COMEX Silver | $46.37 | $43.37 | 6.92% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 856.06 yuan | 830.56 yuan | 3.07% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 10,632.00 yuan | 9,971.00 yuan | 6.63% | | U.S. Dollar Index | 98.20 | 97.65 | 0.56% | | U.S. Dollar against Off - shore RMB | 7.14 | 7.12 | 0.32% | | 10 - year U.S. Treasury Real Yield | 1.82 | 1.75 | 0.07 | | S&P 500 | 6,643.70 | 6,664.36 | - 0.31% | | U.S. Crude Oil Continuous | $65.19 | $62.72 | 3.94% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 81.74 | 85.77 | - 4.70% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 80.52 | 83.30 | - 3.34% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,005.72 | 994.56 | 11.16 | | iShare Gold ETF | 478.90 | 474.47 | 4.43 | [8] 3.2 Accelerated Upward Movement of Gold Price - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation after surging. In the short term, the simultaneous rise of the gold price, U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar index was likely due to the intensification of geopolitical situations, which increased market risk - aversion demand. The decline of the U.S. stock market last week reduced market risk appetite, increased risk - aversion demand, and was favorable for the gold price [10][12]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to September 23 data, compared with the previous week, long positions changed by 6,030 contracts, short positions changed by 5,691 contracts, and net long positions changed by 339 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious - metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness. Last week, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly. Both gold and silver rose significantly last week, with silver rising sharply, and the gold - silver ratio declined rapidly. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded significantly last week, and the 10 - 2 yield spread widened. With the start of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the market's expectation for the U.S. economy improved [14][16][19] 3.4 Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the short - term and medium - to - long - term trends of the gold price and reminding of overseas market fluctuations during the holiday [25]
市场将“失明”?美政府关门风险上升,本周非农有点“悬”
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-29 02:54
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have differing views on monetary policy, leading traders to reduce bets on further easing after stronger-than-expected economic data [1][2] - The potential government shutdown starting October 1 could delay the release of key economic data, including the closely watched non-farm payroll report [2][5] - The market is pricing in an approximately 80% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's meeting on October 28-29, but more weak data is needed to support the view of a cooling labor market [2][3] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.2%, up from a five-month low of just below 4% on September 17, following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed [3][4] - Recent reports showing a decline in initial jobless claims and robust second-quarter economic growth have led traders to slightly reduce expectations for further easing [3][4] - The market anticipates that the upcoming government data will show an increase of 50,000 non-farm jobs in September, a rebound from an average of less than 30,000 in the previous three months [3] Group 3 - Fed officials are facing conflicting risks of a slowing labor market and rising inflation, with some advocating for more rate cuts while others express concerns about inflation driven by tariffs [4] - The U.S. Treasury options market shows buyers betting that the 10-year yield will drop to 4% or lower by the end of November, while short positions in U.S. Treasuries are increasing [4] - The importance of data not affected by the government shutdown, such as the ADP private employment report, has increased, with a strong employment report potentially influencing interest rate decisions [5]
中信建投:美债收益率反弹可能性不大
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 10:57
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has rebounded to 4.2%. The report suggests that the risks associated with U.S. Treasuries are significantly lower than last year, with a potential rebound in short-term yields, but the year-end average is expected to decline to 4% or even lower, indicating a wait-and-see approach for investment opportunities [1] Group 1 - The significant drop in U.S. Treasuries in Q4 last year and Q2 this year was primarily driven by the impacts of Trump, but the transmission paths were different: last year's decline was mainly due to suppressed rate cut expectations, while this year's was due to a reassessment of term premiums [1] - Current conditions show a reduction in trade tensions and a restart of interest rate cuts, with minimal risks associated with declining credibility and a pause in monetary easing, suggesting a more favorable overall environment for U.S. Treasuries compared to previous periods [1] - The report does not foresee a substantial increase in the yield average, indicating a cautious outlook on the potential for significant yield recovery [1]
美元资产“祛魅”
摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强在2025年《财富》世界500强峰会上表示,最近美联储开启了降息 的历程,但这个降息的决定非常拧巴,因为美国短期会面临滞胀的风险,不管是收紧移民缺了劳动力, 还是对外加关税产品价格涨了,其实经济未来几个季度要回落,但与此同时其通胀居高不下。在这个过 程中开启降息,可能会使得未来整个美元资产实际效益不断下降,导致美元资产吸引力下降,全球资金 越来越寻求多元化配置。 在美联储降息落地、美国最新公布的就业和消费数据双双超预期等多重因素影响下,近段时间以来美元 指数起伏震荡加剧。从市场表现来看,美元指数收盘价从9月23日的97.232飙升至9月26日的98.347。 华福证券在最新研报中强调,美联储主席鲍威尔和美联储多位委员最新表态强调通胀上行风险,在经济 边际改善背景下持续推升实际利率,令美元指数开始呈现较大的回升弹性,并可能持续。 市场分析人士普遍认为,避险资金的惯性回流是驱动此轮美元指数强势回升的关键,不过中长期来看, 美元走弱趋势依然难改。 中信证券分析指出,预计2025年年内美元将继续弱势,需警惕的是若后续美国通胀意外升温以及美国经 济意外好转,导致美联储放缓降息,则美元或存 ...
美债收益率涨跌不一,10年期美债收益率涨1.16个基点
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-26 23:05
Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements on September 26, with the 2-year yield decreasing by 1.43 basis points to 3.639% [1] - The 3-year yield fell by 0.50 basis points to 3.652% [1] - The 5-year yield increased by 0.52 basis points to 3.767% [1] - The 10-year yield rose by 1.16 basis points to 4.179% [1] - The 30-year yield went up by 0.59 basis points to 4.754% [1]
贵金属数据日报-20250926
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 03:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.45% to 854.72 yuan/gram, while the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.08% to 10,411 yuan/kilogram [4]. - The US economic data is performing well, the US dollar index has rebounded, the trade situation between the US and Europe has further eased, and the market has closed positions in advance before the National Day holiday to avoid risks. As a result, the upward trend of gold has slowed down and entered a high - level shock. However, silver, boosted by its industrial attributes and the sharp rise of copper, has continued its upward trend. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Bessent urged a rate cut by the end of the year, and the probability of two more rate cuts this year remains high. In the long run, precious metal prices still have room to rise [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will long - term increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The continuation of gold purchases by global central banks means that the medium - to - long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Internal and External Gold and Silver - **Price Data**: On September 25, 2025, the price of London gold was 3,740.94 US dollars/ounce, London silver was 43.96 US dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3,771.60 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 44.26 US dollars/ounce, AU2510 was 851.74 yuan/gram, AG2510 was 10,370 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 850.58 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 10,346 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the price of gold generally decreased, with a decline of 0.8% for London gold, 0.9% for COMEX gold, 0.5% for AU2510, and 0.5% for AU (T + D). The price of silver also mostly decreased, with a decline of 0.3% for London silver and 0.2% for COMEX silver, but AG2510 and AG (T + D) increased by 0.2% [3]. - **Spread/Ratio Data**: On September 25, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 1.16 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 24 yuan/kilogram, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) was - 4.78 yuan/gram, the spread of silver internal - external market (TD - London) was - 896 yuan/kilogram, the ratio of SHFE gold - silver main contracts was 82.14, the ratio of COMEX gold - silver main contracts was 85.22, the spread of AU2512 - 2510 was 2.98 yuan/gram, and the spread of AG2512 - 2510 was 41 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 28.9%, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) decreased by 31.0%, etc. [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX Gold and Silver Non - commercial Positions**: As of September 16, 2025 (weekly data), on September 24, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 326,778 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 60,368 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 266,410 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position increased by 0.59%, the non - commercial short position decreased by 4.38%, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 1.78%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 71,623 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 20,085 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 51,538 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position decreased by 1.14%, the non - commercial short position increased by 8.49%, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 4.45% [3]. - **ETF Positions**: On September 24, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR was 996.85 tons, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV was 15,469.12379 tons. Compared with September 23, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.37%, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On September 25, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 65,634 kilograms, an increase of 8.41% compared with September 24. The SHFE silver inventory was 1,156,855 kilograms, a decrease of 0.43% compared with September 24 [3]. - **COMEX Inventory**: On September 24, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 39,807,223 troy ounces, an increase of 0.16% compared with September 23. The COMEX silver inventory was 527,155,089 troy ounces, an increase of 0.08% compared with September 23 [3]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Index Data - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: On September 25, 2025, the US dollar index was 97.87, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.16%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11. Compared with September 24, the US dollar index increased by 0.06%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.13%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged [3][4]. - **Index**: On September 25, 2025, the S&P 500 index was 6,637.97, and the NYMEX crude oil price was 64.81. Compared with September 24, the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.76%, and the NYMEX crude oil price increased by 1.82% [4].
美债收益率多数上涨,10年期美债收益率涨1.93个基点
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-25 22:32
Group 1 - The majority of US Treasury yields increased on Thursday, September 25 [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 4.50 basis points to 3.653% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield increased by 5.08 basis points to 3.658% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield went up by 3.91 basis points to 3.762% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield climbed by 1.93 basis points to 4.168% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.40 basis points to 4.748% [1]