Group 1: Overall Information - Report Period: September 1 - 5, 2025 [1] - Report Subjects: Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, gold prices fluctuated upward due to the Fed's dovish signals, a weaker US dollar, geopolitical risks, and a weakening labor market [7] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, Fed officials' speeches, geopolitical situations, and global central bank policies [7] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 800 range [11] - This Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 794 - 803 and support at 766 - 775 [12] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [19][28] - Data Presented: Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventories, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price spreads [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: Last week, silver prices showed a pattern of "fluctuating and stabilizing, rebounding at the end of the month" due to the Fed's expected rate cut, a weaker US dollar, lower US bond yields, and industrial demand expectations [32] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, manufacturing PMI, and Fed officials' speeches. Whether the rate - cut expectation can be further strengthened will dominate short - term trends [32] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [33] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with support at 8500 - 8800 and resistance at 9200 - 9500 [36] - This Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be strong, with support at 8900 - 9000 and resistance at 9400 - 9500 [37] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [42][45] - Data Presented: Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventories, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price spreads [44][47][49]

Core Viewpoint - The recent revisions of U.S. non-farm employment data have raised questions about the reliability of these statistics, suggesting potential political influences and methodological inadequacies in the data collection process [1][3][19]. Group 1: Employment Data Revisions - The U.S. non-farm employment data for May was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, a reduction of 88% [1]. - The June data was also significantly adjusted, dropping from 147,000 to 14,000 [1]. - The Labor Statistics Bureau conducts monthly surveys of over 100,000 businesses and government agencies, but response rates have declined, leading to larger discrepancies in reported data [3][4]. Group 2: Statistical Methodology Issues - The statistical models used for employment data may no longer reflect the complexities of the current U.S. economy, which is characterized by rapid changes in business dynamics [9][12][14]. - The "business birth-death model" assumes a stable economic environment, which is not applicable in the current context [10][11]. Group 3: Political Influences - Historical patterns show that extreme overestimations of employment data often occur during election years, while significant underestimations are common in the first year of a new presidency [15][16]. - The recent firing of the Labor Statistics Bureau director by Trump is seen as a politically motivated action, reflecting the intertwining of economic data and political agendas [19][20]. Group 4: Implications for Monetary Policy - Weak employment data has increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could provide more room for policy adjustments in other economies, such as China [21].

Core Viewpoint - The significant downward revision of June non-farm payroll data indicates substantial disruptions to the U.S. economy caused by tariffs, suggesting that the resilience of the U.S. economy should not be overestimated, and the direction of interest rate cuts remains certain [5][9]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data - In July 2025, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, below the expected 110,000, with the previous month's figure revised down from 147,000 to 14,000 [4]. - The unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, matching expectations but up from 4.1% in the previous month [4]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 3.8% [4]. Group 2: Employment Sector Performance - In July, the financial activities sector added 15,000 jobs, education and healthcare added 79,000 jobs, and retail added 16,000 jobs, all showing improvement compared to previous values [6]. - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating a lack of production willingness among companies [6]. Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in the previous month, indicating a significant decline in employment willingness among the younger demographic [8]. - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 221,000 in July, contributing to the rise in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.2% [8]. - There was an increase in temporary unemployment by 80,000 and a rise in those completing temporary jobs by 31,000, suggesting an uptick in layoffs [8]. Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - Cumulative downward revisions of 258,000 jobs for May and June, along with the July job addition of 73,000, indicate a clear weakening trend in non-farm employment [9]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times in 2025, with an 80% probability of the first cut occurring in September [9].

Employment Data Summary - In July 2025, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 104,000, with the previous month's value revised down to 14,000[6] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, matching expectations, while the labor participation rate fell for the third consecutive month to 62.2%[6][9] - The average hourly wage in the private sector increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, indicating rising core service inflation pressures[9][10] Economic Outlook - The softening job market provides ample justification for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in September from 37.7% to 78.7%[9][30] - The recent acceleration in U.S. trade negotiations and the reduction of tariff uncertainties contribute to a clearer inflation outlook, suggesting that if inflation does not exceed expectations, a rate cut in September is highly likely[9][10] Risks - There is a potential risk of inflation exceeding expectations, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to implement rate cuts, especially with upcoming tariff adjustments that may impact prices[7][33]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline on August 1, with all three major indices dropping and a total market value loss exceeding $1 trillion, attributed to disappointing non-farm payroll data for July [2] - The July non-farm payroll report indicated an increase of only 73,000 jobs, with previous months' data revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs, marking the worst performance since the pandemic began [3] - Following the employment report, President Trump ordered the immediate dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics head, Erika McEntarfer, claiming the data was manipulated for political purposes [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Kugler announced his resignation, creating a vacancy that allows President Trump to appoint a preferred candidate, potentially influencing the central bank's leadership [4][5] - Kugler's resignation is seen as an opportunity for Trump to exert pressure on Fed Chair Powell, with speculation that the new appointee could replace Powell [5] - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Powell's handling of interest rates and suggested that Powell should also resign, similar to Kugler [6]

Core Insights - The unemployment rate has increased to 4.2%, which is still considered low compared to historical averages [1] - The average unemployment rate over the past decade is 4.6%, including the years affected by the pandemic [1] - Analysts suggest that the current employment data may provide justification for dissenting votes from Fed officials Waller and Bowman, indicating signs of a weakening job market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts express concern that significantly weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data could challenge the current strength of the U.S. dollar, potentially undermining the narrative of economic resilience in the face of tariff threats [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - Analysts are pessimistic about the upcoming non-farm payroll report, suggesting it may disrupt the perception of U.S. economic resilience [1]

Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs, with the S&P 500 surpassing 6400 points for the first time [1][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.14%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.33% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.02% [3] Technology Sector - Major US tech stocks mostly gained, with the Wind US Tech Seven Giants Index rising by 0.65%. Tesla's stock increased by over 3%, adding $30.734 billion to its market capitalization, approximately ¥220.605 billion [6][7] - Other tech stocks such as Nvidia, META, Amazon, and Apple also saw increases, while Microsoft and Google experienced slight declines [7] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.69%, with notable gains in stocks like Yipeng Energy (up over 27%) and Wangban Technology (up over 18%) [8] European Market - All three major European indices declined, with Germany's DAX down 1.02%, France's CAC40 down 0.43%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.43% [9] Commodities - The international gold price decreased, with spot gold trading at $3314.18 per ounce, down 0.66% [10][11] - In contrast, international crude oil prices saw significant increases, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 2.79% and 2.82%, respectively [12] Currency Market - The US dollar index surged by 1.02%, while the euro fell by 1.3% against the dollar, indicating a strong dollar performance [10]

Core Insights - Since 2025, the London and Shanghai gold indices have increased by 26.75% and 25.82% respectively, with recent weekly changes of 1.61% and 1.39% [1] - The U.S. CPI peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and has since shown a downward trend, with a recent CPI of 2.4% in May 2023, slightly below expectations [1] - The balance of gold supply and demand remains tight, with increased investment demand contributing to a reduction in the global gold supply's looseness in 2024 [1] Economic Indicators - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees increased by 0.3% in May 2025, remaining stable for three consecutive months [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates twice this year, with a potential rate cut in September 2025 [1] Market Dynamics - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill by the U.S. Congress is expected to increase the fiscal deficit, potentially weakening the dollar in the long term while supporting short-term growth [1] - Central bank gold purchases, ETF investments, and a weak dollar are anticipated to support gold prices in the second half of 2025 [1] - The long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact due to factors such as a weakening dollar and geopolitical instability driving central bank purchases [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows short-term stickiness, with June non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, exceeding expectations of 106,000, and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2% [1][4][6] - Job creation is uneven, with private sector jobs increasing by 74,000, below the expected 100,000, while state and local government jobs added 80,000, and healthcare and leisure sectors contributed significantly to the total [5][6][8] - The transportation and warehousing sector saw an increase of 8,000 jobs, indicating active freight logistics, possibly linked to inventory replenishment in certain industries [5][6] Group 2 - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.24% to 4.12%, with the permanent unemployment rate also declining from 1.12% to 1.11% [2][6][7] - Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 233,000, while continuing claims remained steady at 1.964 million, aligning with expectations [2][6] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, indicating a potential decline in labor supply due to stricter immigration policies [8][9] Group 3 - Wage growth shows stickiness, with June hourly wages increasing by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3][10] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private for June showed a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, down from 4.9% previously, but still above the average of 4.8% for 2024 [10][11] - The overall wage growth supports consumer spending, particularly for lower-income groups, indicating resilience in the economy [10][11] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with a higher probability of a rate cut in September, influenced by strong employment data and market reactions to fiscal policies [11][12] - The market's concerns about economic hard landing and short-term rate cuts have significantly decreased, supporting risk assets [12][11] - The Fed Watch data indicates a 63.8% probability of a rate cut in September, down from 71.9% previously, reflecting market adjustments to recent economic data [11][12]