美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什领导美联储，摩根士丹利策略师指出，这一变动并不意味着新兴市场行 情走向终结。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 摩根士丹利策略师James Lord、Simon Waever等人在报告中写道，"新兴市场牛市可能依然完好"，投资 者仍应逢低买入新兴市场本地资产，背后的支撑因素在于其基本面依然稳健，货币政策继续发挥压舱石 作用。他们认为，上周后期的价格波动"可能是由于投资者措手不及，在外汇市场仓位错误而被放大"， 并强调"逢低买入是明智之举，配置新兴市场本地资产的理由比美联储人事变动的影响更为充分"。 来源：市场资讯 摩根士丹利预计美联储将于6月恢复降息。哥伦比亚上周五加息，被其视作新兴市场央行采取支持本币 行动的最新例证。 ...

2、美国总统特朗普正式提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，接替将于5月结束任期 的鲍威尔。这一提名还需获得参议院批准。不过，参议院民主党领袖舒默、共和党参议员蒂利斯 已表示，将阻止对沃什的提名，除非撤销针对鲍威尔的调查。民主党参议员沃伦也表示，沃什并 非美联储主席的理想人选。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗 普的关税政策及加快降息立场。 宏 观 消 息 3、数据显示，1月我国制造业市场需求有所收紧，但企业生产保持扩张态势，产业结构继续优 化；服务业运行态势相对稳定，企业预期持续向好。2026年1月份中国制造业采购经理指数为 49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。1月份装备制造业采购经理指数为50.1%，高技术制造业采购经 理指数为52%，装备制造业和高技术制造业稳中向好发展，制造业产业结构持续优化。 4、中国人民银行召开2026年支付结算工作会议。会议要求，2026年支付结算工作要紧密围绕" 十五五"规划和金融强国建设目标，推动现代化支付体系高质量发展。加快建设人民币跨境支付 体系，推进跨境支付互联互通，推动跨境支付体系多元化、多层次发展。严格实施支付机构穿透 式监管和支付 ...

2026年1月30日，COMEX黄金期货收盘定格在 4907.5美元/盎司，下跌8.35%，盘中最大跌幅逾12%。 罕见的单日大幅波动，不仅冲销了黄金的连日涨幅，甚至吞没了此前数月的涨势。这像一出荒诞剧：昨天还是"避险资产"，今天却成了"风险源头"，主角仍 是黄金。 记者 欧阳晓红 这一夜，成也流动性，败也流动性。 投资者可以从两个链条来拆解这次暴跌。一是宏观链条：美联储主席提名与政策风格变化→市场对未来路径的"把握感"下降→分歧扩大、波动上升；二是微 观链条：波动上升→交易所提高保证金以保系统安全→杠杆被迫收缩→价格更容易走极端。 "反应函数" （央行的出牌规则）让市场不敢押注；"保证金"让杠杆没法押注。两者叠加，价格就会用"断层"说话。 黑天鹅起飞前 投资者可能想不到，1月26日—1月30日这一周，全球金融市场原本还在用"黄金重塑秩序与制度"的剧本演戏，直到周五。 美联储议息会议前后，市场情绪仍有惯性。1月28日，美联储将联邦基金利率维持在3.50%—3.75%不变。会议声明措辞克制但信息密度不低：经济活动以稳 健速度扩张，就业增量偏低、失业率有稳定迹象，通胀仍略偏高等，因此利率维持不变。 美联储主席鲍威 ...

特朗普已正式提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席，这一举动看似为持续数年的美联储人事争议画上句号，实则开启了更为复杂的权力博弈周期。 美联储现任主席鲍威尔的离任之路远非表面看起来那般顺畅，两人未来数年的博弈将成为观察美国政治经济体系深层互动的重要窗口。 要理解这一人事变动的深层逻辑，首先需要搞清美国宪法框架下总统权力的边界。 美联储主席的任命需经过总统提名与参议院确认两道法定程序。虽然当前参议院由共和党掌握多数席位，理论上特朗普的提名获得通过概率较高，但历史经 验显示国会投票始终存在变数。这种制度设计本质上是对行政权力的制衡，确保货币政策不会沦为总统个人意志的延伸，而是经过立法机构的审查与监督。 鲍威尔作为拥有丰富决策经验的资深理事，在货币政策辩论中拥有不可替代的话语权。即便卸任主席职务，其仍可通过理事身份在关键投票中发挥实质性作 用，这种制度安排实质上延长了其政策影响力的生命周期。 更深层次的博弈体现在货币政策理念的根本分歧上。特朗普公开批评联储降息太慢，认为高利率阻碍了经济复苏；而鲍威尔则强调价格稳定与就业均衡的双 重目标。沃什的提名被广泛视为特朗普试图重塑联储政策倾向的战略举措，但制度约束与鲍威尔的持续存在使得 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump is expected to influence monetary policy and market dynamics, with potential implications for interest rates and the Fed's independence [4][7]. Group 1: Nomination and Market Reaction - President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve Chairman position, pending Senate approval [4]. - Following the announcement, the US dollar remained strong, while US stock futures faced pressure, with the S&P 500 index down approximately 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite index dropping about 144 points [4]. - Gold and silver prices significantly retreated, attributed to the stronger dollar increasing holding costs for precious metals, which dampens investment demand [4]. Group 2: Kevin Warsh's Background - Kevin Warsh, 55, has a robust background in policy and finance, currently serving as a visiting scholar at the Hoover Institution and teaching at Stanford's business school [5]. - He has previously held a position as a Federal Reserve Governor, appointed at the age of 35, and has experience in international economic coordination [6]. - Warsh's policy stance has shifted from a hawkish position during his tenure to supporting lower interest rates and advocating for structural reforms to create space for rate cuts [6]. Group 3: Implications for Monetary Policy - If confirmed, Warsh will lead monetary policy during a sensitive period, with inflation not fully returning to the 2% target and increasing fiscal deficits [7]. - Analysts suggest that most traders do not expect immediate changes in policy direction, as interest rates are determined by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [7]. - The nomination process faces uncertainties, including potential political pressures and investigations that could complicate the appointment [7].

Group 1 - The latest silver futures closing price is 23189 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 2.75% and a trading volume of 1,278,937 contracts [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai is quoted at 23365 yuan/kg, indicating a premium of 176 yuan/kg over the futures price [1] - The European Union is considering imposing tariffs on 93 billion euros worth of goods imported from the U.S. in response to Trump's tariff threats [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized the strategic importance of Greenland for U.S. national security [2] - Trump expressed a desire for Hassett to remain in his current position and downplayed the criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman highlighted potential layoff risks and urged against signaling a pause in interest rate cuts [2] Group 3 - The appointment of the Federal Reserve Chairman is in flux, causing fluctuations in gold prices, while silver prices are experiencing strong bullish sentiment [3] - The premium for Shanghai silver has quickly narrowed to 2100 yuan/kg [3] - The silver price is expected to operate within the range of 22200-23500 yuan/kg [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that he may remain at the Federal Reserve until a new nominee from President Trump is confirmed by Congress [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects the ongoing transition within the Federal Reserve leadership as it awaits new appointments [1] - The potential delay in leadership changes could impact monetary policy decisions in the near term [1]

Core Conclusion - The composition of the FOMC's 12 voting members is likely to be 4 doves, 4 hawks, and 4 neutrals, indicating a marginally dovish shift compared to the current composition of 3 doves, 4 neutrals, and 5 hawks [2][8] Group 1: FOMC Personnel Changes - The current Fed Chair Powell's term ends in May next year, with five candidates considered for the position, all of whom are dovish [3][9] - The candidates' winning probabilities are as follows: Hassett (57%), Waller (23%), Walsh (14%), Riedel (4%), and Bowman (1%) [3][9] - Powell's decision to remain as a board member after stepping down as chair could limit the selection of the new chair [3][11] Group 2: Board of Governors - Among the current governors, Waller, Milan, and Bowman are dovish, while Barr is hawkish, and Powell, Jefferson, and Cook are neutral [4][12] - Milan is likely to have his term extended, with low probability of Cook being dismissed [4][13] - The new chair's selection and Powell's potential continuation as a board member will influence the board's composition [4][14] Group 3: Regional Federal Reserve Presidents - The current regional Fed presidents are all hawkish, while the incoming presidents for next year include a neutral and three hawks [5][15] - Trump faces challenges in altering the appointments of regional Fed presidents through the board, making it difficult to change the FOMC's policy stance [6][16]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership, particularly the retirement of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, may lead to a more dovish stance in monetary policy, influencing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) towards potential interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic announced his retirement effective February next year, leaving a key position currently held by a hawkish member [1]. - The appointment of a more dovish successor could shift the FOMC's stance towards further rate cuts, despite Bostic's non-voting status until 2027 [1]. - The Federal Reserve Board is expected to approve the reappointment of all 12 regional Fed presidents for new five-year terms starting March 1 [1]. Group 2: Potential Impact of Supreme Court Ruling - A Supreme Court ruling in January regarding the potential dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by Trump could create another vacancy, allowing for the appointment of a new member aligned with lower interest rate policies [2]. - Analysts do not anticipate dramatic changes in the confirmation process for regional Fed presidents, despite the potential for a new appointee [2]. Group 3: Current Voting Members' Stance - All four current voting regional Fed presidents lean towards a hawkish stance, with concerns about inflation remaining high [4][5]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem support rate cuts but emphasize caution due to inflation concerns [5]. - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee express higher thresholds for further rate cuts, citing persistent inflation [5]. Group 4: Future Voting Members' Perspectives - Incoming voting members, including the Philadelphia Fed President, may lean hawkish, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressing reservations about further rate cuts [6]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lori Logan also show hesitance towards rate cuts, focusing on inflation issues [6]. Group 5: Expected Divisions within the Committee - The composition of the regional Fed presidents is expected to be more hawkish, while the Board of Governors may lean dovish, leading to potential divisions within the committee [7]. - Three distinct factions are anticipated: a dovish group led by the new Fed Chair and certain governors, a hawkish group from regional presidents, and a more neutral group comprising other governors [7].

Group 1 - Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic announced plans to retire at the end of his term on February 28, 2026, although he is eligible for reappointment [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell praised Bostic's contributions to the Federal Open Market Committee and highlighted his leadership in enhancing the institution's strength [1] - The selection process for Bostic's successor will begin according to Federal Reserve policy, with the current First Vice President temporarily assuming the role if no successor is appointed by the retirement date [1] Group 2 - President Trump has criticized Powell for the slow pace of interest rate cuts and has threatened to dismiss him, raising market concerns [2] - Potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman include current Board members and other prominent figures, with Kevin Hassett expressing willingness to accept the position if offered [2] - Trump aims to appoint more of his allies to the Federal Reserve Board, following the resignation of a board member and his nomination of Stephen Moore to fill the vacancy [2] Group 3 - Trump unilaterally announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, citing allegations of mortgage fraud, which Cook denies and has contested in court [3] - The Federal Reserve is experiencing frequent personnel changes amid Trump's pressure, making its future direction a focal point for market observers [3]