Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stated that President Trump does not have the authority to dismiss her and that she will not resign [1] - Trump publicly announced Cook's dismissal via a letter on his social media platform "Truth Social" [2] - Lisa Cook is the first African American woman to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor, with her term lasting until 2038 [2] Group 2 - Cook was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board in May 2022 and previously served as an economics professor at Michigan State University [2] - She also held a position on the Economic Advisory Council during President Obama's administration [2]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Impact - President Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing "fraudulent and potentially criminal behavior" that undermines her credibility as a regulator [1][4][5] - Following the announcement, major financial indices including the US dollar index, S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq futures, and Dow futures experienced a sharp decline [2] - Trump's actions reflect increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve's decision-making body, particularly criticizing Powell's stance on interest rates [5] Group 2: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The US government plans to impose a 50% tariff on all Indian goods starting August 27, 2025, as part of escalating trade tensions [2][6] - This new tariff follows previous tariffs of 25% imposed on Indian imports, leading to a cumulative tariff rate of 50% on Indian goods [6] - India has expressed strong opposition to the US's tariff actions, stating they are "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," and has vowed to protect its national interests [6][7] Group 3: US-Korea Trade Negotiations - President Trump indicated a willingness to renegotiate trade agreements with South Korea, including potential orders for ships [3][8] - The US and South Korea previously agreed on a trade deal involving a $350 billion investment fund aimed at supporting South Korean industries in the US market [8][9] - The agreement includes provisions for reduced tariffs on South Korean goods, with specific commitments on energy and other sectors [9]

Group 1: Tariff Impact on Oil and Trade - The shipment of Urals crude oil to India dropped to an average of 400,000 barrels per day in August, down nearly two-thirds from the previous average of 1.18 million barrels per day, indicating the effectiveness of U.S. pressure on India regarding Russian oil purchases [2] - The U.S. has accepted Brazil's request to negotiate over the imposition of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, suggesting potential flexibility in tariff enforcement [2] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Concerns - Analysts express concerns that the full implementation of tariffs could have profound effects on inflation and global supply chains, with the Federal Reserve indicating that inflation risks may outweigh employment risks [3] - Citigroup estimates that U.S. companies are currently absorbing 60%-70% of tariff costs, but this may not be sustainable as companies are expected to increasingly pass these costs onto consumers [3] - Goldman Sachs reports that as of June, U.S. consumers had already borne 22% of tariff costs, with this figure projected to rise to 67% by October as more companies transfer costs [3] Group 3: Federal Budget and Debt Projections - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has revised its projections, indicating that the U.S. federal budget deficit will be nearly $1 trillion higher over the next decade due to tax and tariff policies [4] - The CRFB warns that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio could rise from 118% to 120% in a baseline scenario and to 134% in a more adverse scenario by 2035 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Trump has called for the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, indicating a significant political influence on monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1 - The demand for Waller's resignation highlights ongoing tensions between political figures and the Federal Reserve's independence [1] - Trump's statement reflects broader concerns regarding the Fed's current monetary policy and its impact on the economy [1] - The call for resignation may signal potential changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership and policy direction in the future [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's ability to "sustainably lower interest rates" in the future [1] - Current macroeconomic data in the U.S. is performing well, particularly with potential improvements in employment data following personnel changes in relevant statistical departments [1] - The market may be underestimating the inflation risks in the U.S. [1] - Personnel changes within the Federal Reserve could also contribute to uncertainties surrounding interest rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice emphasizing the need for market risk control due to various destabilizing factors, urging members to enhance risk awareness and maintain market stability [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 8, COMEX gold prices surged to a historical high of $3534.1 per ounce before experiencing volatility due to tariff news [1] - Following the announcement of potential tariffs on 1-kilogram gold bars, COMEX gold prices dropped, closing at $3458.2 per ounce, reflecting a 0.13% increase from the previous day [1] Group 2: Tariff Implications - The U.S. government has imposed tariffs on 1-kilogram gold bars, which are commonly traded in the global gold futures market, contrary to expectations of exemptions [1] - A White House official indicated plans to clarify misinformation regarding the taxation of gold bars and other specialty products [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Developments - Recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, including the nomination of Stephen Moore, may influence market perceptions and gold prices [1] - Morgan Stanley's report predicts a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, followed by three additional cuts, citing signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained its target interest rate range at 4.25% to 4.50% during its last policy meeting [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in gold prices, highlighting the significant increase in gold demand from global central banks and the impact of U.S. tariffs on gold imports [2][6][11]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of August 9, the London spot gold price was reported at $3,398.61 per ounce, with a peak of $3,409.04 on August 8 [2]. - The COMEX gold price reached a record high of $3,534.1 per ounce during the Asian trading session on August 8, closing at $3,486.5 [2]. - Over the past week, gold prices have shown an upward trend, with COMEX gold futures rising over 4% from July 31 to August 7 [5]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - According to a report from the World Gold Council, global central banks added a net total of 22 tons of gold to their reserves in June, marking the third consecutive month of slight increases [7]. - Uzbekistan's central bank was the largest net buyer in June, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore was the only net seller, offloading 6 tons [9]. - As of the end of July, the People's Bank of China had increased its gold reserves to 2,300.41 tons, adding 1.86 tons over the previous month, continuing a nine-month streak of increases [9]. Group 3: U.S. Tariffs on Gold - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has included major gold products, such as one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, in the category of imported goods subject to tariffs, with a proposed 39% tariff on imports from Switzerland [12]. - This tariff policy has led to reduced or suspended gold exports to the U.S. from two Swiss refineries, potentially driving up gold futures prices in New York due to expected supply shortages [12]. - The Trump administration is expected to clarify the tariff situation regarding gold imports, which has caused significant concern among traders [12].

| Millio | > 國投期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月08日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属震荡偏强。美国对等关税正式生效且有所加码、美国经济前景担忧以及降息预期升温推动国际金 价测试近三个月以来运行区间高位重要阻力。有媒体报道一份针对瑞士精炼厂澄清请求的裁定函明确指出, 1公斤和100盎司金条应归入税号710813，而不属于唯一免税的710812税号，部分进口黄金加征关税令伦敦与 纽约金价价差扩大。俄罗斯总统普京和美国总统特朗普将在未来几天内举行会谈将成为影响走势的潜在因 素。贵金属震荡趋势中维持回调买入思路,高位谨慎参与。 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 白星代表短期多/空趋势处在一种相对均衡状态中,且当前 ...

8月8日北京时间盘前，美元指数小幅上涨0.18%，达到98.36，美元兑日元同样走高至147.49，市场关注 点聚焦于美联储理事沃勒成为特朗普团队热门美联储主席候选人的消息。据彭博报道，沃勒已与特朗普 团队成员会面，表现出色，虽尚未与总统正式会谈，但其政策立场和背景被视为可能影响未来美联储的 走向。 这种不同节奏的货币政策预期，正引发全球资本流动的新一轮调整。美元走强可能对新兴市场货币形成 压力，而英镑和欧元则在政策信号微妙变化中寻求支撑。投资者需关注美联储人事变动的进展，以及主 要央行未来的政策路径，来判断外汇市场的下一步动向。 美元近期的走强不仅是对美联储政策预期调整的反映，也包含了对潜在人事变动所带来的政策连续性与 变革性的预判。在全球经济复苏的不确定性背景下，谁将掌舵美联储，将成为影响国际资本市场的关键 因素之一。 与此同时，英国央行宣布降息25个基点，但投票结果显示，更多决策者倾向于维持利率不变，反映出英 国央行内部对高通胀的担忧。这使得市场对英国连续降息周期的预期趋于谨慎。英镑尾盘上涨0.41%， 报1.341美元，体现出投资者对英国货币政策转向稳定的积极反应。 欧元则在消息面影响下呈现震荡走势。 ...

摩根大通目前预计，鉴于美国劳动力市场出现疲软迹象以及围绕特朗普最新对美联储理任命的风险，美 联储将提前至9月的会议上降息 25 个基点，此前预测为12月份。小摩表示，目前风险表明降息可能会提 前，随后美联储还会再降息三次，每次 25 个基点，然后无限期暂停。 美联储人事变动或引发政策预期调整 美联储9月的决策可能取决于 8 月的就业数据。摩根大通表示，失业率若达到 4.4%或更高，可能会为更 大幅度的降息提供依据，而若失业率更低，则可能引发关注通胀的政策制定者的反对。 而在此之前，美国7月非农就业报告出现大规模的下修。美联储理事库克表示，7月份的非农就业报告确 实"令人担忧"，并称其数据可能标志着美国经济与美联储政策的一个重要拐点。 摩根大通分析师Michael Feroli写道："对于鲍威尔而言，下次会议上的风险管理考量可能不仅仅在于平 衡就业和通胀风险。万一到下次会议时米兰已担任美联储理事，那可能意味着会有三票反对。反对票可 真不少。" 此举是在特朗普数月来不断向美联储施压要求降息之后做出的。 美国总统特朗普周四宣布，提名现任白宫经济顾问委员会主席、自由市场派经济学家斯蒂芬·米兰 (Stephen Mir ...