Market Performance - The three major US stock indices experienced fluctuations during the trading session on October 2, ultimately closing higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.17%, the Nasdaq up 0.39%, and the S&P 500 up 0.06%, all reaching record closing highs [2] - Major technology stocks showed mixed results, with Meta and Broadcom rising over 1%, while Tesla fell more than 5% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.06%, with most popular Chinese stocks increasing, including Century Internet up over 4%, Alibaba, NIO, and Kingsoft up over 3%, and Baidu up over 2% [4] - Bilibili and Li Auto rose over 1%, while Miniso fell over 3% [4] Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee indicated that the Fed will make decisions based on existing information in the absence of official unemployment data, emphasizing the need to avoid premature rate cuts [4] - Analysts suggest that investors appear to bet on a short-term government shutdown, which is unlikely to have a severe impact on the US economy [4] Government Shutdown Implications - President Trump warned that a prolonged government shutdown could lead to layoffs and project cuts, following the Senate's rejection of funding bills that resulted in the federal government shutting down for the first time in nearly seven years [5] - Vice President Pence and White House spokesperson Levitt indicated that layoffs are likely to occur soon if the shutdown continues [5] Commodity Prices - International gold prices fell, with COMEX gold futures down 0.43% at $3880.8 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures down 1.7% at $46.87 per ounce [6] - International oil prices also saw a significant drop, with WTI crude oil futures falling over 2%, influenced by a report showing an increase in OPEC's oil production by 400,000 barrels per day to 29.05 million barrels per day in September [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Goolsbee, emphasizes the need to make decisions based on existing information in the absence of official unemployment rate data, highlighting the importance of caution in avoiding premature interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is currently lacking official unemployment rate data, which influences its decision-making process [1] - There is a strong emphasis on the need for caution to prevent overreacting with early interest rate reductions [1]

Core Insights - The government shutdown is hindering the Federal Reserve's ability to interpret economic conditions due to a lack of official data [1][2] - Concerns about rising inflation in the service sector were reiterated, suggesting persistent price pressures in less tariff-affected areas of the economy [1] Group 1 - The Chicago Fed President, Goolsbee, emphasized the difficulties posed by the absence of economic data during the government shutdown [2] - Goolsbee stated that the Federal Reserve is entering a critical period where understanding potential shifts in the economy is essential, but the lack of data complicates this task [2] - The government agencies responsible for collecting and publishing economic data will not operate during the shutdown, affecting the release of key reports such as the monthly consumer price report scheduled for October 15 [2]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government is set to shut down if Congress does not pass a new fiscal year budget by midnight on Tuesday, October 1, leading to a halt in data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [2] - The shutdown will impact key economic indicators, including the non-farm payroll report, initial jobless claims, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which are crucial for assessing the labor market and inflation ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting [2][3] - Historical precedents indicate that government shutdowns can lead to significant market volatility and uncertainty, as seen during previous shutdowns when critical economic data was delayed [3][4] Impact on Financial Markets - The absence of key economic reports is expected to amplify volatility in interest rate futures, leading to speculative pricing in the asset markets [3] - The BLS is not the only affected department, but its data is vital for financial markets, and a prolonged shutdown could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions regarding interest rates [3] - Wall Street strategists have raised the probability of a government shutdown to 70%, warning that if combined with debt ceiling disputes, October could see volatility comparable to the 2011 S&P downgrade [4]

（文章来源：新华财经） 美联储理事米兰称，目前尚无关税引发通货膨胀的实质性证据，但这一点似乎正让美联储的其他决策者 犹豫不决。 ...

2025 年 9 月 25 日 总量研究 稳定币：从数字美元到霸权上链 ——《大国 博弈》系列第八十八篇（2025-07-25） 特朗普为何加速推进 232 调查？——《大国 博弈》第八十七篇（2025-07-09） 关税大限将至，特朗普如何抉择？——《大 国博弈》系列第八十六篇（2025-07-03） 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇（2025-05- 12） 美国政府停摆：可能性与市场影响 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十九篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 一、新财年将近，美国政府停摆可能性增加 2026 新财年将近，美国政府资金将于 2025 年 9 月 30 日后停止供给，若新的拨款 法案未获通过，美国政府将面临停摆风险。一般而言，美国联邦政府运转资金来自 年度预算拨款。国会两党通常应在 10 月 1 日新财年开始前通过新的年度拨款法 ...

Core Insights - U.S. consumer spending showed unexpectedly strong momentum in August, with retail sales data increasing for the third consecutive month [1][2] - Real retail sales adjusted for inflation increased by 2.1% year-over-year, marking the 11th consecutive month of positive growth [1][4] Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales in August rose by 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 0.2%, and the previous month's increase of 0.5% [3] - Retail sales excluding automobiles increased by 0.7%, surpassing the expected 0.4% [3] - Retail sales excluding both automobiles and gasoline also rose by 0.7%, against an expectation of 0.4% [3] Sector Contributions - The growth in August was broad-based, with 9 out of 13 major categories reporting increases [1] - Online retailers, clothing stores, and sporting goods stores led the growth, likely reflecting back-to-school shopping [1] - Restaurant spending rebounded by 0.7% after a decline in the previous month [1] Economic Implications - The strong retail performance contrasts with market concerns about an economic slowdown and may influence Federal Reserve decision-making [7] - The "control group" sales, which exclude food services, auto dealers, building materials, and gas stations, rose by 0.7%, serving as a key indicator for consumer demand [7]

据美国彭博社报道，当地时间8月21日，美国司法部计划对美联储理事库克展开调查，并敦促美联储主席鲍威尔将其免职。 美国总统特朗普近来加大对美国联邦储备系统决策层施压。除一再批评鲍威尔坚持不降息的立场，他20日又在社交媒体上发文，要求美联储理事库克辞职。 特朗普还分享了美国媒体的一篇报道，内容是联邦住房金融署署长普尔特致信美国司法部长，呼吁对库克的两笔房产抵押贷款进行更严格审查。 据法新社报道，普尔特曾致信美国司法部长，呼吁对库克启动调查，并暗示她可能涉嫌刑事犯罪。 库克方面则回应称，她"无意因为一个帖子提出一些问题就被霸凌到辞去职务"，但自己会严肃对待有关其个人财务历史的问题。 库克2022年5月就任美联储理事，成为美国首名担任这一职务的黑人女性。她在2023年9月获批连任，任期至2038年。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is intensifying pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly targeting Governor Lisa Cook, demanding her resignation and criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Pressure on Federal Reserve - Trump has publicly called for Lisa Cook to resign, stating "Cook must resign, now!!!" on his social media platform [1]. - He shared a Bloomberg report highlighting calls for stricter scrutiny of Cook's mortgage applications, which have raised allegations of potential misconduct [1]. Group 2: Response from Lisa Cook - Cook explained that the mortgage applications in question occurred before she joined the Federal Reserve and expressed her intent to address any reasonable inquiries regarding her financial history [2]. - She emphasized that she does not intend to resign due to social media posts and is committed to providing accurate information [2]. Group 3: Legal and Institutional Context - It remains unclear if the Justice Department will investigate Cook, as the President cannot arbitrarily dismiss Federal Reserve officials without just cause [3]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's refusal to lower interest rates has led to repeated attacks on both Powell and Cook, with Cook being the first Black woman to serve as a Fed Governor [3].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve, specifically targeting Governor Lisa Cook, demanding her resignation amid allegations of mortgage fraud [1][2][3] Group 1: Pressure on Federal Reserve - Trump has publicly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates and has now directed his ire towards Cook, calling for her resignation on social media [1] - The call for Cook's resignation follows a report by Bill Pulte, who has suggested that Cook's mortgage applications should be scrutinized more closely [1] Group 2: Cook's Response - Cook has stated that the mortgage applications in question occurred before she joined the Federal Reserve and has expressed her intention to address any reasonable inquiries regarding her financial history [2] - She emphasized that she will not resign due to what she perceives as bullying tactics [2] Group 3: Legal and Institutional Context - It remains unclear whether the Department of Justice will investigate Cook, as the President cannot arbitrarily dismiss Federal Reserve officials without just cause [3] - Cook, who was appointed during the Obama administration, is the first Black woman to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor and has recently been reappointed for a term lasting until 2038 [3]