Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Eggs [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Soybean, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Pigs [1] Core Views - The overall outlook for agricultural products shows a mixed trend, with different factors influencing each commodity. The market is mainly affected by factors such as South American weather, exports, domestic supply and demand, and policies [2][3][4]. Summary by Commodity Soybean - The main contract of soybeans shows a reduction in positions and a decline in price. The domestic soybean spot price is stable and firm, while the US soybeans are expected to be volatile and bullish due to South American weather and export factors. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic policies and the spot market [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Dalian soybean futures prices are weakly volatile. South American new - season Brazilian soybean sowing progress is normal, while Argentine soybean planting is slow due to weather. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, but the profit of oil mill crushing is poor. Soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level, suppressing prices. Whether the 05 contract can break through the upper limit depends on US soybean exports and South American weather [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil's rebound is restricted, and the market is in the process of position transfer. The market expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to increase in November. If supply - side production cuts continue, the price may bottom out, but the rebound is limited by high inventory. For soybean oil, focus on policy changes, and the domestic soybean crushing profit is improving. Overall, the prices of soybean and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Most rapeseed - related futures contracts declined, with only the near - month rapeseed meal contract being resistant to decline due to tight delivery resources. Rapeseed oil led the decline in the oil sector. Canadian rapeseed exports are weak, and its price is under pressure. The supply of rapeseed is expected to be more relaxed in the medium - term, and the short - term price of rapeseed - related products is under pressure but the decline space is limited [6]. Corn - Corn spot prices in the north and at northern ports remain firm, and futures are strong. Northeast new - grain supply is lower than expected, and there are concerns about supply and transportation. The 01 contract should be observed, while the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a pull - back [7]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures and spot prices are weak, and the average spot slaughter price continues to decline. With the approaching of the winter solstice, southern curing will start, but there is also an exit pressure from second - fattened pigs. Historically, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom pattern, and it is expected that pig prices may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The near - month January contract of eggs hit a new low, and the spot price is stable but weak. The long - position trend of the far - month contract is driven by the expectation of declining inventory, but the current valuation is high, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts is too large. The long - position trend is expected to end, and the near - month contract is bearish [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the market trends, supply - demand situations, and price movements of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil in both domestic and international markets. It emphasizes the importance of factors such as weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, US soybean export demand, and domestic inventory changes in China for market dynamics [8][15][23]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Soybeans**: As of November 21, the CBOT soybean 01 contract closed at 1126.50 cents per bushel, up 0.36% from the previous week. The price was affected by factors like NOPA's higher - than - expected US soybean crush in October and USDA's report of soybean sales to China. The US soybean harvest rate was 96%, slightly lower than historical and five - year average levels. The supply was expected to be sufficient, but the cumulative year - on - year decline in exports widened [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean meal prices fell. The 12 - contract closed at $315.8 per short - ton, down 1.83%, and the 01 - contract at $319.8 per short - ton, down 1.20%. DCE soybean meal 01 contract closed at 3012 yuan per ton, down 2.59%. The decline was due to factors such as USDA's soybean sales report to China and high domestic inventory. Spot basis fluctuated slightly higher [13][15]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil prices rose slightly. The 12 - contract closed at 50.28 cents per pound, up 0.26%, and the 01 - contract at 50.61 cents per pound, up 0.26%. DCE soybean oil 01 contract closed at 8190 yuan per ton, down 0.80%. The decline was affected by falling prices of related domestic vegetable oils and high domestic inventory. Spot basis remained volatile [20][23]. 2. Production Area Weather - **Brazil**: In the past week (11.14 - 11.21), rainfall was slightly lower than normal, and temperatures in the southern part were lower. In the next week (11.23 - 11.30), both rainfall and temperatures in the southern part are expected to be lower than normal [25][27]. - **Argentina**: In the past week (11.14 - 11.21), rainfall and temperatures were normal. In the next week (11.23 - 11.30), rainfall is expected to be lower than normal, and temperatures higher [33][35]. 3. International Supply and Demand - **US Soybeans**: - **Crop Conditions**: As of November 16, the harvest rate was 95%, lower than last year's 98% and the five - year average of 96% [40]. - **Export Inspection & Sales**: The weekly export inspection volume met expectations, but the cumulative year - on - year decline widened. The 25/26 annual export sales met expectations, and the cumulative year - on - year decline narrowed [41]. - **Soybean Crush**: In August 2025, the crush volume was 5940000 tons, up 18.19% year - on - year. As of October, the cumulative crush volume in the 25/26 season was 426 million bushels, up 12.8% year - on - year [43]. - **D4 RINs Price**: As of November 21, it was 100.5 cents, down 0.75 cents from November 14 [51]. - **Other News**: The US Department of Energy reorganized, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources [53]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: - **Yield Forecast**: Various institutions' forecasts for the 25/26 season range from 167.683455 million tons to 178.5 million tons [55]. - **Sowing Progress**: As of November 15, the sowing rate was 69.0% according to CONAB. Different states had different sowing progress and crop conditions [55][56]. - **Export Sales**: Anec raised the November export forecast to 4.71 million tons. As of the second week of November, the cumulative export in 2025 was 102.91 million tons, up 7.49% year - on - year [61]. - **Soybean Premium**: As of November 21, the premium quotes showed mixed trends [63]. - **Soybean Crush Profit & Volume**: The crush profit rose this week. In September 2025, the crush volume was 4.144 million tons, down 11.05% year - on - year [66][69]. - **Inventory**: As of September, the oil mill's soybean inventory was 14.39 million tons, up 12.36% year - on - year; the soybean oil inventory was 526000 tons, up 52.27% year - on - year; and the soybean meal inventory was 2.52 million tons, down 2.79% year - on - year [71]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: - **Sowing Progress**: As of November 20, the sowing rate was 25%. The sowing area forecast for the 25/26 season was lowered [74]. - **Farmer Sales**: The weekly sales of farmers increased. As of the 46th week of 2025, the 2025 sales progress was 82%, and the 2026 pre - sale progress was 6.2% [78]. - **Export Sales**: In October 2025, the soybean export volume was 1.296 million tons, up 1217.5% year - on - year. The export volumes of soybean meal and soybean oil also increased [81]. - **Soybean Crush Profit & Volume**: The crush profit fell this week. In October 2025, the crush volume was 4.036 million tons, down 2.66% year - on - year [85][87]. - **Inventory**: As of November 1, the oil mill's soybean inventory was 2798823 tons, up 10.07% year - on - year; the soybean oil inventory was 296624 tons, down 14.94% year - on - year; and the soybean meal inventory was 1050328 tons, up 7.44% year - on - year [89]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand - **Soybean Oil Supply and Demand**: - **Import Procurement**: In October 2025, China imported 9.4025 million tons of genetically modified soybeans. As of October, the cumulative import was 95.1637 million tons, up 6.86% year - on - year [94]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the port inventory was 9.926 million tons, down 408000 tons week - on - week; the oil mill inventory was 7.4771 million tons, down 142400 tons week - on - week [95]. - **Arrival and Crush**: The arrival volume decreased, while the crush volume and operating rate increased [100]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume decreased this week [103]. - **Production and Apparent Consumption**: Both production and apparent consumption increased [104][106]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the commercial inventory was 1.1485 million tons, down 0.87 million tons week - on - week [108]. - **Soybean Meal Supply and Demand**: - **Production and Apparent Consumption**: Both production and apparent consumption increased [111]. - **Inventory**: The oil mill's inventory decreased, while the feed mill's physical inventory days increased [113]. - **Trading and Pick - up**: Both trading volume and pick - up volume increased [116]. - **Downstream Demand**: The losses in pig - raising and piglet - purchasing increased, and the pig price and pig - grain ratio decreased [118]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 21, the registered warehouse receipts on the DCE were 40357 lots [120]. 5. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spreads - **Basis, Monthly Spreads, and Variety Spreads**: Analyzed the basis, monthly spreads of soybean oil and soybean meal, and variety spreads such as soybean oil - palm oil and rapeseed oil - soybean oil [124][129][132]. - **FOB Quotes**: Provided FOB quotes for soybean oil, soybean meal from different regions [137][139][140]. - **CFTC Positions**: Showed the net long positions of managed funds in CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil [142][143].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the long holiday, the futures prices of edible oils rose first and then fell. The Y2601 soybean oil contract rose 1.99% to close at 8,302 yuan/ton, the P2509 palm oil contract rose 2.28% to close at 9,438 yuan/ton, and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract rose 0.19% to close at 10,061 yuan/ton [5][31]. - In the international market, the bottom - oscillation of international crude oil has intensified, suppressing the upward trend of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The high inventory pressure in September may restrict the further rise of futures prices, but the Indonesian B50 plan supports long - term demand, and the increase in exports since October has also boosted the market [9][32]. - In the domestic market, the relations between China and Canada, and China and the US still have a great impact on rapeseed oil and soybean oil. The news of the US imposing additional tariffs on China over the weekend has caused turmoil in the global financial market, and there is a high possibility of significant high - level market oscillations under policy uncertainty [9][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Spot Analysis - As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [12]. - As of October 10, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,370 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [13]. b. Other Data - As of September 26, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 13,000 tons to 1.461 million tons. On October 1, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 35,000 tons to 581,000 tons [17]. - As of October 11, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,579,700 tons [19]. - As of October 10, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 278 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [22][23]. - As of October 10, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 309 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [25]. c. Comprehensive Analysis - Palm oil: From September 1 - 30, 2025, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 2.35%. The total estimated production in September was 1.81 million tons. The single - yield decreased by 1.9% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 2.42% month - on - month. Malaysian palm oil rose 2.34% [7][31]. - Soybean oil: As of now, the export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season have only completed 23.7% of the annual target, far lower than the 5 - year average of 43.4%. The slow sales pace may force the US to lower its export forecast and increase the ending inventory. From January - September 2025, China imported 72.7 million tons of Brazilian soybeans, accounting for 77.4% of Brazil's total soybean exports. US soybeans fell 0.98% this week [7][31].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The external market of US soybeans is oscillating, with the main contract at 1030 cents. Due to favorable weather and a slightly bearish July USDA report, CBOT soybeans declined weakly at the beginning of last week, testing the previous low of 1000 cents. Subsequently, positive news emerged, such as the US reaching a trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes Indonesia's plan to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, slightly alleviating concerns about US soybean exports. Overall, US soybeans may continue to oscillate in the bottom range. The growth of new - season US soybeans is good, with a surprisingly high excellent - good rate of 70% in the latest week, a 4% increase from the previous week, and only 7% of the planting area affected by drought, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. If China, the largest importer of US soybeans, still cannot purchase due to high tariffs, CBOT soybeans are expected to lack sustained improvement [6]. - Domestic soybean meal continued to be strong this week. On one hand, the risk preference in the commodity market has recovered, and the prices of most industrial products at the bottom have risen, driving the bullish sentiment in the market. On the other hand, the fundamental situation of soybean meal is solid. Although the current spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, considering that China has not started purchasing new - season US soybeans for the fourth quarter, the current pressure is insignificant. During the week, CBOT soybeans recovered, the FOB price of Brazilian soybeans increased, and the import cost gradually rose. The far - month soybean meal should generally be treated with a low - buying strategy, with the risk being whether there will be positive news from the Sino - US peace talks, such as a mutual reduction of tariffs without an agreement for China to purchase additional US agricultural products [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3098, the opening price was 3100, the highest price was 3136, the lowest price was 3098, the closing price was 3116, with a rise of 18 and a rise rate of 0.58%. The trading volume was 413,570, the open interest was 1,236,007, and the open interest change was 22,460 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3076, the opening price was 3080, the highest price was 3121, the lowest price was 3077, the closing price was 3095, with a rise of 19 and a rise rate of 0.62%. The trading volume was 1,166,151, the open interest was 1,838,499, and the open interest change was - 12,733 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3111, the opening price was 3096, the highest price was 3155, the lowest price was 3096, the closing price was 3133, with a rise of 22 and a rise rate of 0.71%. The trading volume was 126,795, the open interest was 623,289, and the open interest change was 1,122 [6]. - **External Market**: The external market of US soybeans is oscillating. Favorable factors include the trade agreement with Indonesia and potential agreements with other small countries, while bearish factors include good weather, a high excellent - good rate of new - season soybeans, and China's non - purchase due to tariffs [6]. - **Domestic Market**: Domestic soybean meal is strong, driven by market sentiment and its own fundamentals. The far - month contract should be treated with a low - buying strategy, with risks related to Sino - US trade negotiations [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **USDA Pressing Weekly Report**: As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the US soybean pressing profit was $2.58 per bushel, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average pressing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was $257.28 per short ton, equivalent to $5.98 per bushel. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 56.15 cents per pound, equivalent to $6.63 per bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.28 per bushel, up from $10.23 per bushel last week [7][9]. - **Anec Forecast**: Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.11 million tons (previously estimated at 12.19 million tons), soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.4 million tons (previously estimated at 2.25 million tons), and corn exports are expected to be 4.14 million tons (previously estimated at 4.6 million tons) [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][13][14]

Report Overview - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] Core View - If the weather is normal, the domestic soybean meal market will be treated as slightly bearish in a volatile pattern. If there are changes in the weather, there will be upward potential [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: For domestic soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 all rose, with increases ranging from 1.36% - 1.71%. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 1,468,250, and the trading volume of the 2601 contract was 463,074. The external market of US soybean futures contracts was strong, with the main contract at 1020 cents [6] - **External Market Factors**: Last week, the external market was weak. Trump initiated a new round of trade disputes, which worried the market about the impact on US soybean exports. The growth of new - season US soybeans was smooth, with a growth excellent - good rate of 66% as of July 6, and only 9% of the area affected by drought. The 7 - month USDA report had limited impact, and the demand side was still highly variable [6] - **Domestic Market Factors**: Domestic soybean meal was relatively strong compared to the external market last week, with a rebound after bottom - grinding. Nationally, soybean meal was in a inventory - accumulation cycle, with a large number of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports, and some oil mills reported full storage. However, downstream buyers were willing to make safety purchases at relatively low spot prices, providing some support. The upward elasticity mainly came from the transmission of CBOT soybean prices and US weather [6] 2. Industry News - **USDA Export Sales Report Forecast**: As of the week ending July 10, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 350,000 - 1,000,000 tons, with 200,000 - 600,000 tons in the 2024/25 season and 150,000 - 400,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 23,000 tons [7] 3. Data Overview - **Renewable Fuel Credit Quotas**: In June, the US ethanol (D6) blending credit quota was about 1.25 billion gallons, higher than 1.22 billion gallons in May. The biodiesel (D4) blending credit quota increased from 602 million gallons in the previous month to 629 million gallons in June [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The USDA May report shows that the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons are expected to decline, with the 25/26 ending stocks lower than market expectations, having a bullish impact. However, the supply narrative for US soybeans in the 25/26 season remains to be seen, as there are uncertainties regarding whether the weather in the main producing areas can support a bumper harvest and whether the demand will be stable. The supply outlook may vary depending on factors such as yield, export volume, and tariff policies [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Production End - The USDA May report uses data from the March planting intention survey, expecting the soybean planting area to decrease from 87.1 million acres in the 24/25 season to 83.5 million acres in the 25/26 season due to poor planting profits [4]. - The estimated yield per acre in the 25/26 season is 52.5 bushels, the highest in the same period over the years, in line with the historical estimation trend. The yield will be first revised in the August report [4]. - As of May 11, 2025, the US soybean planting progress is 48%, higher than the five - year average of 37%, and the germination rate is 17%, higher than the five - year average of 11% [4]. - There is uncertainty about whether the 25/26 yield can maintain 52.5 bushels per acre. The current rainfall in the main producing areas is low, and good weather during the critical growth period is needed [5]. Export End - For the 24/25 season, the USDA May report increased the export forecast by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels. As of May 8, 2025, the cumulative export sales volume was 48 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 12.68%, higher than the report's forecast. The export demand is expected to be well - supported [11]. - For the 25/26 season, the forecast export volume is 1.815 billion bushels, a decrease of 35 million bushels year - on - year. The pre - sale progress is significantly slow, and the tariff policy remains a key concern for future export demand [12]. Crushing End - As of March 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in US soybean crushing declined. However, the market expects the cumulative year - on - year increase to rebound in April, and the 24/25 crushing is still well - supported [15]. - For the 25/26 season, the monthly report expects the crushing volume to be 2.49 billion bushels, with a year - on - year increase of 2.89%. The crushing growth rate slows down, and the adjustment of US biodiesel policy needs to be watched [16]. Ending Stocks - For the 24/25 season, the ending stocks were reduced by 25 million bushels to 350 million bushels. The possibility of further adjustment by the USDA is low [19]. - For the 25/26 season, under different yield and export scenarios, the supply situation varies. If the export volume is adjusted downward, the supply may turn loose; otherwise, the supply may be tight [19][20].