Report Overview - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] Core View - If the weather is normal, the domestic soybean meal market will be treated as slightly bearish in a volatile pattern. If there are changes in the weather, there will be upward potential [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: For domestic soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 all rose, with increases ranging from 1.36% - 1.71%. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 1,468,250, and the trading volume of the 2601 contract was 463,074. The external market of US soybean futures contracts was strong, with the main contract at 1020 cents [6] - **External Market Factors**: Last week, the external market was weak. Trump initiated a new round of trade disputes, which worried the market about the impact on US soybean exports. The growth of new - season US soybeans was smooth, with a growth excellent - good rate of 66% as of July 6, and only 9% of the area affected by drought. The 7 - month USDA report had limited impact, and the demand side was still highly variable [6] - **Domestic Market Factors**: Domestic soybean meal was relatively strong compared to the external market last week, with a rebound after bottom - grinding. Nationally, soybean meal was in a inventory - accumulation cycle, with a large number of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports, and some oil mills reported full storage. However, downstream buyers were willing to make safety purchases at relatively low spot prices, providing some support. The upward elasticity mainly came from the transmission of CBOT soybean prices and US weather [6] 2. Industry News - **USDA Export Sales Report Forecast**: As of the week ending July 10, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 350,000 - 1,000,000 tons, with 200,000 - 600,000 tons in the 2024/25 season and 150,000 - 400,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and US soybean oil export sales are expected to increase by 0 - 23,000 tons [7] 3. Data Overview - **Renewable Fuel Credit Quotas**: In June, the US ethanol (D6) blending credit quota was about 1.25 billion gallons, higher than 1.22 billion gallons in May. The biodiesel (D4) blending credit quota increased from 602 million gallons in the previous month to 629 million gallons in June [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The USDA May report shows that the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons are expected to decline, with the 25/26 ending stocks lower than market expectations, having a bullish impact. However, the supply narrative for US soybeans in the 25/26 season remains to be seen, as there are uncertainties regarding whether the weather in the main producing areas can support a bumper harvest and whether the demand will be stable. The supply outlook may vary depending on factors such as yield, export volume, and tariff policies [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Production End - The USDA May report uses data from the March planting intention survey, expecting the soybean planting area to decrease from 87.1 million acres in the 24/25 season to 83.5 million acres in the 25/26 season due to poor planting profits [4]. - The estimated yield per acre in the 25/26 season is 52.5 bushels, the highest in the same period over the years, in line with the historical estimation trend. The yield will be first revised in the August report [4]. - As of May 11, 2025, the US soybean planting progress is 48%, higher than the five - year average of 37%, and the germination rate is 17%, higher than the five - year average of 11% [4]. - There is uncertainty about whether the 25/26 yield can maintain 52.5 bushels per acre. The current rainfall in the main producing areas is low, and good weather during the critical growth period is needed [5]. Export End - For the 24/25 season, the USDA May report increased the export forecast by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels. As of May 8, 2025, the cumulative export sales volume was 48 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 12.68%, higher than the report's forecast. The export demand is expected to be well - supported [11]. - For the 25/26 season, the forecast export volume is 1.815 billion bushels, a decrease of 35 million bushels year - on - year. The pre - sale progress is significantly slow, and the tariff policy remains a key concern for future export demand [12]. Crushing End - As of March 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in US soybean crushing declined. However, the market expects the cumulative year - on - year increase to rebound in April, and the 24/25 crushing is still well - supported [15]. - For the 25/26 season, the monthly report expects the crushing volume to be 2.49 billion bushels, with a year - on - year increase of 2.89%. The crushing growth rate slows down, and the adjustment of US biodiesel policy needs to be watched [16]. Ending Stocks - For the 24/25 season, the ending stocks were reduced by 25 million bushels to 350 million bushels. The possibility of further adjustment by the USDA is low [19]. - For the 25/26 season, under different yield and export scenarios, the supply situation varies. If the export volume is adjusted downward, the supply may turn loose; otherwise, the supply may be tight [19][20].