聚酯产业风险管理日报：乙烷风波再起，近端几无影响 2025/06/06 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4150-4650 | 18.68% | 42.7% | | PX | 6300-6900 | 25.89% | 81.1% | | PTA | 4400-4900 | 24.52% | 73.7% | | 瓶片 | 5700-6250 | 19.62% | 64.1% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担 ...

聚酯产业风险管理日报：需求预期转弱，持货意愿降低 2025/06/04 【利多解读 】 【利空解读】 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4150-4650 | 19.37% | 46.3% | | PX | 6300-6900 | 23.62% | 79.7% | | PTA | 4400-4900 | 22.24% | 64.7% | | 瓶片 | 5700-6250 | 18.11% | 61.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | ...

| | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4150-4650 | 19.11% | 61.7% | | PX | 6300-6900 | 24.21% | 84.6% | | PTA | 4400-4900 | 22.88% | 63.2% | | 瓶片 | 5700-6250 | 18.56% | 63.0% | source： 南华研究 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心乙二醇价格 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空乙二醇期货来锁定 | EG2509 EG2509P4 200 | 卖出 买入 | 25% | 4400-45 30-50 | | | | | 利润， ...

Sector Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The polyester industry chain was significantly affected by US tariff hikes on textile and clothing exports. After the China-US tariff negotiation signals, market sentiment has improved. The China-US joint statement's results exceeded expectations, and further negotiations are possible [3]. - On the supply side, recent maintenance of PX, TA, and EG has been concentrated, leading to a significant supply contraction. Combined with the expectation of trade easing, the willingness to hold goods has strengthened, tightening spot liquidity and strengthening the near-month basis [3]. - On the demand side, polyester demand is resilient. The current polyester operating rate is at a historical high due to the resilience of filament and better-than-expected bottle chip exports. After the China-US joint statement, the polyester operating rate is expected to remain high in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecasts for different polyester products are as follows: ethylene glycol (EG) is 4,250 - 4,750 yuan/ton, PX is 6,400 - 7,000 yuan/ton, PTA is 4,500 - 5,000 yuan/ton, and bottle chips are 5,750 - 6,350 yuan/ton. The current 20-day rolling volatility and its 3-year historical percentile are also provided [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about EG price drops, companies can short EG futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4,550 - 4,600 yuan/ton. They can also buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce costs, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4,375 - 4,400 yuan/ton [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and companies want to purchase based on orders, they can buy EG futures to lock in procurement costs, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4,350 - 4,400 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops, with a 75% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4,460 - 4,490 yuan/ton [2]. Core Contradictions - The polyester industry chain was affected by US tariff hikes on textile and clothing exports. After the China-US tariff negotiation signals, market sentiment improved. The joint statement's results exceeded expectations, and further negotiations are possible [3]. - On the supply side, recent maintenance of PX, TA, and EG has been concentrated, leading to a significant supply contraction. Combined with the expectation of trade easing, the willingness to hold goods has strengthened, tightening spot liquidity and strengthening the near-month basis [3]. - On the demand side, polyester demand is resilient. The current polyester operating rate is at a historical high due to the resilience of filament and better-than-expected bottle chip exports. After the China-US joint statement, the polyester operating rate is expected to remain high in the short term [3]. 利多解读 - No specific content is provided in the report. 利空解读 - Price data for various products on May 15, 2025, May 14, 2025, and May 8, 2025, are presented, including daily and weekly changes [5][8]. 利多因素 - The China-US joint statement led to an unexpected reduction in tariffs, improving macro sentiment [7]. - Polyester load reached a historical high. Before the holiday, filament inventory decreased significantly due to downstream stocking, alleviating inventory pressure [7]. - Terminal orders to the US partially recovered due to tariff reduction, and there are signs of recovery in terminal demand during the exemption period [7]. - Unexpected shutdowns at Hengli and a slight reduction in production at Sheng Hong led to a supply contraction, widening the supply-demand gap in May and June and tightening liquidity expectations [7]. 利空因素 - Polyester profit margins have been continuously compressed, which may reduce production efficiency and enthusiasm [7]. - The price of动力煤has been declining, weakening cost support [7]. - EG's profit margins have significantly improved, and its valuation has increased from a low level [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain was significantly affected by the US tariff increase on textile and clothing exports. After the Sino - US tariff negotiation signals, market sentiment improved. The agreement in the joint statement exceeded expectations, and further negotiations are possible [4]. - On the supply side, recent maintenance of PX, TA, and EG has been concentrated, leading to a significant supply contraction. With the expectation of trade relaxation, the willingness to hold goods has strengthened, tightening spot liquidity and strengthening the near - month basis [4]. - On the demand side, polyester demand is resilient. The current polyester operating rate is at a high level in the same period due to the resilience of filament and better - than - expected bottle - chip exports. After the Sino - US joint statement, the polyester operating rate is expected to remain high in the short term, and the strong supply - demand structure and the recovery expectation of textile and clothing export orders have pushed up the prices of raw materials [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol (EG) | 3900 - 4500 | 30.73% | 91.3% | | PX | 5800 - 6600 | 44.15% | 99.4% | | PTA | 4100 - 4800 | 39.28% | 93.6% | | Bottle Chip | 5400 - 6100 | 31.25% | 98.6% | [3] 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategy | Behavior Guidance | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management (Downward Price) | High finished - product inventory, worried about EG price decline | Long | Short EG futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs | EG2509 | Sell | 25% | 4400 - 4450 | | Inventory Management (Downward Price) | High finished - product inventory, worried about EG price decline | Long | Buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | EG2509P4200<br>EG2509C4450 | Buy<br>Sell | 50% | 40 - 50<br>90 - 110 | | Procurement Management (Upward Price) | Low procurement inventory, want to lock in procurement costs | Short | Buy EG futures to lock in procurement costs | EG2509 | Buy | 50% | 4250 - 4300 | | Procurement Management (Upward Price) | Low procurement inventory, want to reduce procurement costs | Short | Sell put options to collect premiums and lock in purchase price if price drops | EG2509P4200 | Sell | 75% | 70 - 90 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The polyester industry chain was affected by US tariff increases on textile and clothing exports. After the Sino - US tariff negotiation signals, market sentiment improved. The agreement in the joint statement exceeded expectations, and further negotiations are possible [4]. - On the supply side, due to concentrated maintenance of PX, TA, and EG, supply contracted, and the willingness to hold goods strengthened, tightening spot liquidity and strengthening the near - month basis [4]. - On the demand side, polyester demand is resilient. The current polyester operating rate is at a high level in the same period, and it is expected to remain high in the short term after the joint statement. The strong supply - demand structure and the recovery expectation of export orders have pushed up raw material prices [4] 3.4利多解读 No relevant content provided. 3.5利空解读 - Polyester profit margins are continuously compressed, which may reduce production efficiency and enthusiasm [8] - The price of动力煤 on the cost side is continuously weakening, weakening cost support [8] - The profit margins of all EG production routes have been significantly repaired, and the valuation has risen from a low level [8] 3.6 Price and Spread Data - The report provides price data for various products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, EG, and polyester products on May 13, 2025, May 12, 2025, and May 6, 2025, as well as daily and weekly changes [6][9] - It also provides spread data such as basis, month - to - month spreads, and processing fees [9] - The report shows the production and sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the expansion of concerns about the global economic downturn risk caused by mutual tariff imposition between China and the US, crude oil prices have significantly weakened recently and are consolidating at a low level, and the macro - expectation has also turned significantly weaker. In the short term, polyester demand still has resilience, and the transmission speed of terminal negative feedback is slower than expected. Under the pessimistic demand expectation, the main recent gaming point will revolve around whether ethane - based ethylene glycol can bring about a reduction in supply [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the market's expectation of trade dispute mitigation, expected import reduction in May and June, and high polyester load with a slight reduction in filament inventory and eased inventory pressure. Negative factors include the impact of US tariff hikes on terminal textile and clothing export demand and high hidden inventory in ethylene glycol factories [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Price Interval Forecast - **Price Ranges**: The monthly price ranges are 3900 - 4500 for ethylene glycol, 5800 - 6600 for PX, 4100 - 4800 for PTA, and 5400 - 6100 for bottle chips [2]. - **Volatility and Percentiles**: The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 30.73% for ethylene glycol, 44.15% for PX, 39.28% for PTA, and 31.25% for bottle chips, with their 3 - year historical percentiles being 91.3%, 99.4%, 93.6%, and 98.6% respectively [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in ethylene glycol prices, strategies include short - selling ethylene glycol futures (25% at 4250 - 4350), buying put options (50% at 70 - 90) and selling call options (50% at 90 - 110) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, strategies include buying ethylene glycol futures (50% at 4000 - 4100), selling put options (75% at 130 - 150) [2]. Price and Spread Data - **Prices**: From April 21 to April 28, 2025, prices of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, PX contracts, PTA contracts, etc., showed different degrees of changes. For example, Brent crude oil rose from 65.3 to 65.8 dollars per barrel [5][8]. - **Spreads**: There were also changes in various spreads such as TA1 - 5 month spread, EG1 - 5 month spread, etc. For example, the TA1 - 5 month spread changed from 56 to - 60 yuan per ton [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: PTA, MEG, and PX warehouse receipts also changed. For example, PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 131530 to 109778 [8]. - **Processing Fees and Profits**: Processing fees and profits of different products showed different trends. For example, POY profit increased from - 2 to 11 yuan per ton, while DTY profit decreased from 125 to 75 yuan per ton [8]. - **Sales Ratios**: The sales ratios of polyester filament and short - fiber also changed. The polyester filament sales ratio increased from 35.8% to 94.7%, while the polyester short - fiber sales ratio decreased from 87% to 74% [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the US-China tariff war, concerns about a global economic slowdown have grown, causing crude oil prices to weaken and stay low, and macroeconomic expectations to deteriorate. In the short term, pessimistic macro expectations may accelerate the implementation of polyester production cuts, and the main point of contention will be whether ethane-based ethylene glycol can reduce supply [3]. - The US tariff hikes have further impacted the export demand for terminal textiles and clothing, with an expected acceleration of the negative feedback effect. The high hidden inventory of ethylene glycol factories makes it difficult to achieve effective inventory reduction in April [4]. - The profit of ethane-based ethylene glycol is expected to be significantly in the red due to domestic counter-tariffs, and there is a possibility of plant shutdowns. The maintenance plans for coal-based ethylene glycol have been implemented, along with some unexpected maintenance, leading to a significant reduction in supply [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - **Price Ranges**: Ethylene glycol is forecasted to be in the range of 3800 - 4400, PX at 5500 - 6200, PTA at 3900 - 4500, and bottle chips at 5100 - 5700. - **Volatility**: The current 20 - day rolling volatility for ethylene glycol is 30.73% (91.3% historical percentile over 3 years), PX is 44.15% (99.4%), PTA is 39.28% (93.6%), and bottle chips is 31.25% (98.6%) [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of ethylene glycol price drops, short ethylene glycol futures (25% EG2506 and 50% EG2506P4100) or buy put options and sell call options (50% EG2506P4100 and 50% EG2506C4300). - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, buy ethylene glycol futures (50% EG2506) or sell put options (75% EG2506P4100) [2]. Price and Spread Data - **Prices**: On April 18, 2025, Brent crude was not available, while other products like naphtha CFR Japan, PX contracts, TA contracts, etc., had specific price values and changes compared to previous days and weeks. - **Spreads**: TA, EG, PF, and PX had various basis and month - to - month spreads with corresponding changes [5][7]. - **Processing Fees**: Different products such as gasoline reforming, aromatics reforming, etc., had specific processing fees and their daily and weekly changes [7].