Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Supported by the macro "anti-involution" theme, the ethylene glycol price is running strongly under supply-side disturbances. Although the demand shows no sign of improvement, the supply side has frequent accidents, leading to a stronger near-term pattern of ethylene glycol, delaying the inventory accumulation expectation again. With low inventory levels, the price remains prone to rise and difficult to fall. Before the macro narrative materializes, it is expected to remain strong in the short term [3]. 3. Content Summary by Section Polyester Price Range Forecast - **Price Range**: The monthly price ranges are 4000 - 4600 for ethylene glycol, 6400 - 7300 for PX, 4400 - 5300 for PTA, and 5700 - 6400 for bottle chips [2]. - **Volatility**: The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 15.94% for ethylene glycol, 21.59% for PX, 19.17% for PTA, and 15.85% for bottle chips. Their historical percentiles (3 - year) are 27.7%, 67.9%, 48.2%, and 47.9% respectively [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, the strategies include shorting ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 4400 - 4500, buying put options (EG2509P4250) and selling call options (EG2509C4500) with a 50% hedging ratio at 10 - 15 and 35 - 60 respectively [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low, to prevent the rise of ethylene glycol price, strategies are to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 4200 - 4250, sell put options (EG2509P4250) with a 75% hedging ratio at 25 - 50 [2]. Core Contradiction Macro "anti - involution" theme supports the strong operation of ethylene glycol price under supply - side disturbances. Demand is weak, but supply - side accidents make the near - term pattern stronger, delaying inventory accumulation and keeping the price easy to rise and hard to fall in the short term [3]. 利多解读 The document does not provide specific content for this part. 利空解读 Long - filament manufacturers are rumored to have a 10% production cut plan, which is expected to be partially implemented, affecting the total polyester load by 1 - 2% [5]. Supply - side News - Satellite Petrochemical's first line restart is postponed from mid - August, reducing the production forecast for August - September [7]. - Three ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with a total capacity of 1.7 million tons/year have restart problems due to infrastructure issues, and the restart time is undetermined. The import volume in August is expected to decrease [7]. Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: On July 18, 2025, compared with the previous day and week, prices of various products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol showed different degrees of changes. For example, Brent crude oil was at $69.7/barrel, up $0.1 from the previous day and down $0.7 from the previous week [8]. - **Spread Changes**: Spreads such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, and EG1 - 5 also had corresponding changes. For example, the PX1 - 5 month spread was 52 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous day and 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. Processing Fee and Sales Rate - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees of products like gasoline reforming, aromatics reforming, and bottle chips showed different degrees of change. For example, the bottle chip processing fee was 377 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous day and 63 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Sales Rates**: Sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips increased. For example, the polyester filament sales rate was 58.2%, up 20% from the previous day and 22.9% from the previous week [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical impact of the current Israel - Iran conflict is gradually subsiding, and the price of ethylene glycol is now mainly driven by fundamentals. With weak demand, increasing supply and decreasing demand, the supply - demand balance of ethylene glycol turns weak. It maintains a tight balance in July and will enter a continuous inventory accumulation phase later. The upward drive from fundamentals is limited, relying more on supply - side accidents and cost disturbances driven by the macro - environment. The valuation is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the subsequent production reduction rhythm of the polyester sector [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - **Price Range and Volatility**: The monthly price range forecasts are 4000 - 4600 for ethylene glycol, 6400 - 7300 for PX, 4400 - 5300 for PTA, and 5700 - 6400 for bottle chips. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 17.22% for ethylene glycol, 24.12% for PX, 22.00% for PTA, and 17.82% for bottle chips. The current volatility historical percentiles (3 - year) are 36.2% for ethylene glycol, 76.9% for PX, 63.2% for PTA, and 56.0% for bottle chips [2]. - **Polyester Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and concerns about ethylene glycol price drops, strategies include shorting ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4400 - 4500, buying put options (EG2509P4200) and selling call options (EG2509C4500) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory and the need to lock in procurement costs, strategies include buying ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4200 - 4250, and selling put options (EG2509P4200) with a 75% hedging ratio [2]. Core Contradiction - The geopolitical impact of the Israel - Iran conflict fades, and ethylene glycol price is driven by fundamentals. Demand is weak, supply increases while demand decreases, resulting in a weakening supply - demand balance. It is in a tight balance in July and will enter an inventory accumulation phase. The upward drive from fundamentals is limited, relying on supply - side accidents and cost disturbances [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Inventory**: The inventory at East China ports is 55.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons from the previous period. With less arrivals this week, it is expected to decrease by 3 - 4 tons next week [4]. - **Supply**: Several ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with annual capacities of 45, 55, and 70 tons have reduced production or shut down, and the import volume in August is expected to shrink [4]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Not provided in the content Polyester Daily Data - **Price and Spread**: The prices of various polyester products and their spreads (such as TA1 - 5, EG5 - 9) have different daily and weekly changes. For example, Brent crude oil is at 70.6 dollars/barrel, with a daily change of 0.3 and a weekly change of 1.1 [7]. - **Inventory**: PTA, MEG, and PX have different inventory levels and changes in the number of warehouse receipts [7]. - **Processing Margin**: The processing margins of different products (such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread) also show various daily and weekly changes [7][8]. - **Sales Rate**: The sales rates of polyester products (such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber) have different degrees of change [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The impact of geopolitical factors on ethylene glycol prices is gradually subsiding, and price influence is now mainly driven by fundamentals [3]. - The easing of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a significant rise in crude oil prices, pushing up the polyester sector. Coal - based profits are expected to expand, but the additional supply increase is limited [3]. - The US requirement for export licenses for ethane to China poses a long - term risk to the raw material supply of ethane - to - ethylene glycol plants, but the impact on the supply side before August is expected to be limited [3]. - The planned production cuts by bottle - chip factories will weaken the demand for ethylene glycol [4]. - With the easing of the situation, crude oil prices have dropped, mainly affecting coal - based production profits, but the impact on production plans is limited, mainly leading to a downward shift in the absolute price range [6]. - The previous expectation of reduced ethylene glycol imports may be overestimated, with the main loss expected in August. Future focus should be on the recovery of Iranian plants and port shipments [6]. 3. Detailed Summaries by Section 3.1 Polyester Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price ranges for ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, and bottle - chip are 4000 - 4600, 6400 - 7300, 4400 - 5300, and 5700 - 6400 respectively. Their 20 - day rolling volatilities are 20.02%, 30.37%, 28.78%, and 22.42%, and the historical percentiles of volatility over 3 years are 49.6%, 86.2%, 83.7%, and 70.4% [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and concerns about ethylene glycol price drops, short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) at 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 range. Buy put options (EG2509P4200) and sell call options (EG2509C4500) with a 50% hedging ratio in the 20 - 40 and 40 - 60 ranges respectively [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For low procurement inventory, long ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) at a 50% hedging ratio in the 4200 - 4250 range. Sell put options (EG2509P4150) at a 75% hedging ratio in the 50 - 80 range [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - The direct impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on ethylene glycol is mainly on cost - end crude oil price fluctuations and supply - end disruptions. Currently, the influence of geopolitics is fading, and price influence is back to being fundamentally driven [3]. 3.3利多解读 - The easing of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, driving up the polyester sector. Coal - based profits are expected to expand, but the additional supply increase is limited due to factors like device operating conditions [3]. - The US requirement for export licenses for ethane to China poses a long - term risk to the raw material supply of ethane - to - ethylene glycol plants, but the impact on the supply side before August is expected to be limited [3]. 3.4利空解读 - The planned production cuts by bottle - chip factories, expected to affect 230 - 300 million tons of total capacity, will weaken the demand for ethylene glycol [4]. - With the easing of the situation, crude oil prices have dropped, mainly affecting coal - based production profits. Although coal - based profits have been compressed, they remain at a good level, and the impact on production plans is limited, mainly leading to a downward shift in the absolute price range [6]. - The previous expectation of reduced ethylene glycol imports may be overestimated. Iran's ethylene glycol production is about 1.9 billion tons, with about half exported to China. The actual monthly supply to the Chinese market is about 80,000 tons, accounting for about 10% of China's imports. The main loss is expected in August, and future focus should be on the recovery of Iranian plants and port shipments [6]. 3.5 Polyester Daily Data - **Price and Spread**: The report provides price data for various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester fibers, as well as their daily and weekly changes, and data on spreads and basis [7][8]. - **Processing Fees and Production - Sales Ratios**: It also includes data on processing fees for different products and production - sales ratios of polyester filaments and short - fibers [8].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report: Geopolitical Tensions Ease, Risk Premiums Fade [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428), Zhou Jiawei (Futures Practice License No.: F03133676) [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: China Securities Regulatory Commission License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The direct impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on ethylene glycol was mainly reflected in the significant fluctuations in crude oil prices on the cost side and disturbances on the supply side. Currently, the influence of geopolitics is gradually fading, and the price of ethylene glycol is now mainly driven by fundamentals [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for ethylene glycol in the next month is 4000 - 4600 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.82% and a historical percentile of 52.8% over the past 3 years. For PX, it is 6400 - 7300 yuan, with a volatility of 31.00% and a historical percentile of 87.6%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5300 yuan, with a volatility of 29.19% and a historical percentile of 84.7%. For bottle chips, it is 5700 - 6400 yuan, with a volatility of 22.78% and a historical percentile of 71.3% [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ethylene glycol prices, companies with long positions can short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) at an entry range of 4400 - 4500 yuan with a hedging ratio of 25% to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. They can also buy put options (EG2509P4200) at a range of 20 - 40 yuan and sell call options (EG2509C4500) at a range of 40 - 60 yuan with a hedging ratio of 50% to prevent large price drops and reduce capital costs [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and companies want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) at an entry range of 4200 - 4250 yuan with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (EG2509P4150) at a range of 50 - 80 yuan with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if prices fall [2] Core Contradictions - The impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on ethylene glycol was mainly on the cost side (crude oil price fluctuations) and the supply side. Now, the influence of geopolitics is waning, and the price is back to being fundamentally driven [3] 利多解读 - The easing of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which in turn pushed up the polyester sector. The cost side showed an increase in absolute prices following the rise in crude oil prices, and coal - based profits are expected to expand. However, due to factors such as device operating conditions, the additional supply increase is expected to be limited. The US requirement for export licenses for ethane to China poses a long - term risk to the raw material supply of ethane - to - ethylene glycol plants, but it is expected to have limited impact on the supply side before August [3] 利空解读 - Bottle chip factories announced production cut plans, expected to affect a total capacity of 230 - 300 million tons, weakening the demand for EG. With the easing of the situation, crude oil prices quickly fell, mainly affecting coal - based ethylene glycol production. Although coal - based profits have been compressed, they remain at a good level, mainly resulting in a downward shift in the absolute price range. Iran's ethylene glycol production is about 190 million tons, with about half exported to China. The actual monthly supply to the Chinese market is about 80,000 tons, accounting for about 10% of China's imports. The previous expectation of reduced imports is now less likely, and the main impact is expected to be on August imports. Future attention should be paid to the recovery of local Iranian plants and port shipments [4][6] Polyester Daily Data - The report provides price, price difference, warehouse receipt, processing fee, and production and sales rate data for various polyester - related products on June 25, 24, and 18, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - After the China-US joint statement, terminal textile and clothing orders recovered, downstream sentiment improved, and polyester raw materials were strong. However, the actual demand boost from rush exports was lower than expected, and there is a high possibility of polyester production cuts. The demand outlook has weakened marginally, and the polyester sector has become a choice for capital short allocation to reduce valuations. The tight spot market has loosened, and the previously high valuation of ethylene glycol has come under pressure. With uncertainties in the China-US talks and the polyester production cuts, and the potential for significant swings in macro expectations and sentiment, shorting at the current position is not cost-effective. It is recommended to wait for the macro situation to become clearer before making further observations [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for ethylene glycol in the next month is 4150 - 4650 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.69% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.7%. For PX, it is 6300 - 6900 yuan, with a volatility of 25.01% and a historical percentile of 80.1%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 4900 yuan, with a volatility of 23.92% and a historical percentile of 71.7%. For bottle chips, it is 5700 - 6250 yuan, with a volatility of 19.33% and a historical percentile of 63.7% [1] Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory of ethylene glycol is high and there are concerns about price drops, to prevent inventory losses, 25% of the inventory can be hedged by short - selling ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) in the range of 4400 - 4500 yuan. 50% can be hedged by buying put options (EG2509P4200) to prevent large price drops and selling call options (EG2509C4450) to reduce capital costs [1] - **Procurement Management**: When the regular inventory for procurement is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising ethylene glycol prices from increasing procurement costs, 50% of the procurement can be hedged by buying ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) at 4200 - 4250 yuan. 75% can be hedged by selling put options (EG2509P4200) to collect option premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [1] Core Contradictions - After the China - US joint statement, the polyester industry chain showed positive signs. However, the actual demand boost from rush exports was insufficient, and there is a high possibility of polyester production cuts. The demand outlook has weakened, and the polyester sector has become a target for short - selling to reduce valuations. The tight spot market has loosened, and the high valuation of ethylene glycol has faced pressure. Due to uncertainties in the China - US talks and production cuts, shorting at the current position is not advisable [2] Bullish Factors - The US Department of Commerce requires ethane export enterprises to obtain licenses to export ethane to China, posing a long - term risk to the raw material supply of ethane - to - ethylene glycol plants. However, the impact on the ethylene glycol supply before the 09 contract is expected to be limited. Also, the prices of crude oil and coal at the cost end have stopped falling [3] Bearish Factors - **Price Changes**: On June 9, 2025, compared with June 6, 2025, the price of Brent crude oil increased by 0.2 dollars to 66.7 dollars per barrel, while the prices of naphtha CFR Japan, toluene FOB Korea, and MX Korea decreased [4] - **Industry News**: There are rumors of production cuts by major filament manufacturers. If implemented, polyester production will be further reduced, and the expected weakening of ethylene glycol demand will be realized in advance. The outflow of bonded warehouse receipts has led to a significant decline in holders' willingness to hold, and the basis has weakened. The decline in the freight index indicates that the intensity of rush exports is lower than expected [6] Market Data - **Price and Spread**: The prices of various polyester - related products such as PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester fibers showed different degrees of change on June 9, 2025, compared with previous dates. The basis and spreads between different contracts also changed [7] - **Processing Fees and Profits**: The processing fees and profits of products such as gasoline reforming, aromatics reforming, and polyester filaments also changed. The production and sales rates of polyester filaments, short fibers, and polyester chips also showed fluctuations [7][8]

聚酯产业风险管理日报：乙烷风波再起，近端几无影响 2025/06/06 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4150-4650 | 18.68% | 42.7% | | PX | 6300-6900 | 25.89% | 81.1% | | PTA | 4400-4900 | 24.52% | 73.7% | | 瓶片 | 5700-6250 | 19.62% | 64.1% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担 ...

聚酯产业风险管理日报：需求预期转弱，持货意愿降低 2025/06/04 【利多解读 】 【利空解读】 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4150-4650 | 19.37% | 46.3% | | PX | 6300-6900 | 23.62% | 79.7% | | PTA | 4400-4900 | 22.24% | 64.7% | | 瓶片 | 5700-6250 | 18.11% | 61.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | ...

| | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4150-4650 | 19.11% | 61.7% | | PX | 6300-6900 | 24.21% | 84.6% | | PTA | 4400-4900 | 22.88% | 63.2% | | 瓶片 | 5700-6250 | 18.56% | 63.0% | source： 南华研究 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心乙二醇价格 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空乙二醇期货来锁定 | EG2509 EG2509P4 200 | 卖出 买入 | 25% | 4400-45 30-50 | | | | | 利润， ...

Sector Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The polyester industry chain was significantly affected by US tariff hikes on textile and clothing exports. After the China-US tariff negotiation signals, market sentiment has improved. The China-US joint statement's results exceeded expectations, and further negotiations are possible [3]. - On the supply side, recent maintenance of PX, TA, and EG has been concentrated, leading to a significant supply contraction. Combined with the expectation of trade easing, the willingness to hold goods has strengthened, tightening spot liquidity and strengthening the near-month basis [3]. - On the demand side, polyester demand is resilient. The current polyester operating rate is at a historical high due to the resilience of filament and better-than-expected bottle chip exports. After the China-US joint statement, the polyester operating rate is expected to remain high in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecasts for different polyester products are as follows: ethylene glycol (EG) is 4,250 - 4,750 yuan/ton, PX is 6,400 - 7,000 yuan/ton, PTA is 4,500 - 5,000 yuan/ton, and bottle chips are 5,750 - 6,350 yuan/ton. The current 20-day rolling volatility and its 3-year historical percentile are also provided [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about EG price drops, companies can short EG futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4,550 - 4,600 yuan/ton. They can also buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce costs, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4,375 - 4,400 yuan/ton [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and companies want to purchase based on orders, they can buy EG futures to lock in procurement costs, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4,350 - 4,400 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops, with a 75% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4,460 - 4,490 yuan/ton [2]. Core Contradictions - The polyester industry chain was affected by US tariff hikes on textile and clothing exports. After the China-US tariff negotiation signals, market sentiment improved. The joint statement's results exceeded expectations, and further negotiations are possible [3]. - On the supply side, recent maintenance of PX, TA, and EG has been concentrated, leading to a significant supply contraction. Combined with the expectation of trade easing, the willingness to hold goods has strengthened, tightening spot liquidity and strengthening the near-month basis [3]. - On the demand side, polyester demand is resilient. The current polyester operating rate is at a historical high due to the resilience of filament and better-than-expected bottle chip exports. After the China-US joint statement, the polyester operating rate is expected to remain high in the short term [3]. 利多解读 - No specific content is provided in the report. 利空解读 - Price data for various products on May 15, 2025, May 14, 2025, and May 8, 2025, are presented, including daily and weekly changes [5][8]. 利多因素 - The China-US joint statement led to an unexpected reduction in tariffs, improving macro sentiment [7]. - Polyester load reached a historical high. Before the holiday, filament inventory decreased significantly due to downstream stocking, alleviating inventory pressure [7]. - Terminal orders to the US partially recovered due to tariff reduction, and there are signs of recovery in terminal demand during the exemption period [7]. - Unexpected shutdowns at Hengli and a slight reduction in production at Sheng Hong led to a supply contraction, widening the supply-demand gap in May and June and tightening liquidity expectations [7]. 利空因素 - Polyester profit margins have been continuously compressed, which may reduce production efficiency and enthusiasm [7]. - The price of动力煤has been declining, weakening cost support [7]. - EG's profit margins have significantly improved, and its valuation has increased from a low level [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain was significantly affected by the US tariff increase on textile and clothing exports. After the Sino - US tariff negotiation signals, market sentiment improved. The agreement in the joint statement exceeded expectations, and further negotiations are possible [4]. - On the supply side, recent maintenance of PX, TA, and EG has been concentrated, leading to a significant supply contraction. With the expectation of trade relaxation, the willingness to hold goods has strengthened, tightening spot liquidity and strengthening the near - month basis [4]. - On the demand side, polyester demand is resilient. The current polyester operating rate is at a high level in the same period due to the resilience of filament and better - than - expected bottle - chip exports. After the Sino - US joint statement, the polyester operating rate is expected to remain high in the short term, and the strong supply - demand structure and the recovery expectation of textile and clothing export orders have pushed up the prices of raw materials [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol (EG) | 3900 - 4500 | 30.73% | 91.3% | | PX | 5800 - 6600 | 44.15% | 99.4% | | PTA | 4100 - 4800 | 39.28% | 93.6% | | Bottle Chip | 5400 - 6100 | 31.25% | 98.6% | [3] 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategy | Behavior Guidance | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management (Downward Price) | High finished - product inventory, worried about EG price decline | Long | Short EG futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs | EG2509 | Sell | 25% | 4400 - 4450 | | Inventory Management (Downward Price) | High finished - product inventory, worried about EG price decline | Long | Buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | EG2509P4200<br>EG2509C4450 | Buy<br>Sell | 50% | 40 - 50<br>90 - 110 | | Procurement Management (Upward Price) | Low procurement inventory, want to lock in procurement costs | Short | Buy EG futures to lock in procurement costs | EG2509 | Buy | 50% | 4250 - 4300 | | Procurement Management (Upward Price) | Low procurement inventory, want to reduce procurement costs | Short | Sell put options to collect premiums and lock in purchase price if price drops | EG2509P4200 | Sell | 75% | 70 - 90 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The polyester industry chain was affected by US tariff increases on textile and clothing exports. After the Sino - US tariff negotiation signals, market sentiment improved. The agreement in the joint statement exceeded expectations, and further negotiations are possible [4]. - On the supply side, due to concentrated maintenance of PX, TA, and EG, supply contracted, and the willingness to hold goods strengthened, tightening spot liquidity and strengthening the near - month basis [4]. - On the demand side, polyester demand is resilient. The current polyester operating rate is at a high level in the same period, and it is expected to remain high in the short term after the joint statement. The strong supply - demand structure and the recovery expectation of export orders have pushed up raw material prices [4] 3.4利多解读 No relevant content provided. 3.5利空解读 - Polyester profit margins are continuously compressed, which may reduce production efficiency and enthusiasm [8] - The price of动力煤 on the cost side is continuously weakening, weakening cost support [8] - The profit margins of all EG production routes have been significantly repaired, and the valuation has risen from a low level [8] 3.6 Price and Spread Data - The report provides price data for various products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, EG, and polyester products on May 13, 2025, May 12, 2025, and May 6, 2025, as well as daily and weekly changes [6][9] - It also provides spread data such as basis, month - to - month spreads, and processing fees [9] - The report shows the production and sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips [10]