来源：环球时报 美国国会下属的美中经济与安全审查委员会成员利兰·米勒说，政府希望建立一个有印度和其他盟友参 与的供应链，在特定领域实现对中国的"脱钩"。考虑到生产用于制造药物的起始化合物利润微薄且收益 低下，这将是一项几乎不可能完成的事业。 新加坡亚洲新闻台11月27日文章，原题：中国掌握着全球制药市场的所有牌中国在医药供应链中扮演着 重要角色，美国和其他国家在很大程度上依赖中国生产其药品的基础原料。由于自20世纪50年代开始发 展的庞大且商品化的产业，中国在全球药品供应链中发挥着举足轻重的作用。中国是被称为关键起始物 料（KSM）的化合物的重要生产国，这些化合物用于生产被称为活性药物成分（API）的原料。 中国在20世纪80年代开始放开生产，同时也对其他经济领域进行改革，重点是降低成本。一篇媒体报道 援引一名美企高管的话说，如果美国公司试图复制原材料供应链，其成本将上涨50%。制药行业的情况 很可能类似。事实上，中国在许多关键领域都占据着主导地位。（作者Juliana Liu，宋波译） 关于美国对中国依赖的确切程度，目前尚缺乏确凿数据。大型制药商没有太多动力详细说明这种依赖的 深度。较可靠的估计数据来自美国 ...

【环球时报特约记者 文简】 "特斯拉一位高管表示，这家美国汽车制造商重视中国供应商，不会因为原 产国或地理来源而排除任何供应商。"路透社26日报道称，当天，特斯拉公司副总裁陶琳在社交平台上 发表上述声明。此前，《华尔街日报》报道称，特斯拉要求供应商在其美国汽车生产过程中排除中国制 造的零部件。 26日，特斯拉公司副总裁陶琳发布微博表示，"无论是美国、中国还是欧洲，Tesla全球各生产基地的供 应商选择都采用同样严格、客观的标准，完全基于质量、总成本、技术能力成熟度以及长期供货连续 性。供应商的原产国或地理来源不构成排除性标准。" 路透社引述陶琳的声明称，特斯拉上海工厂与400多家中国国内供应商合作，其中60多家供应商也进入 了特斯拉全球采购体系。 美媒称，中国是汽车零部件和汽车内部材料的主要生产国和出口国，其生产规模庞大、成本较低，产品 价格比较低廉。"由于汽车行业的供应链和业务具有全球性，因此受中美摩擦影响尤为严重。"《华尔街 日报》称。对于所谓"特斯拉替换中国零件"的计划，香港《南华早报》日前引述分析人士的话报道称， 这种战略或许有一些效果，但在中国制造业的优势下，更广泛的"脱钩"是不切实际的。 《华尔街 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the dramatic impact of the U.S. tariff policy, particularly the increase to 125%, which has led to significant price hikes for basic goods, costing American households an additional $2,400 annually [3][5][6] - The U.S. isolation strategy has backfired, as attempts to decouple from global supply chains have resulted in negative consequences for the U.S. economy, while China has shown resilience and adaptability [5][6][10] - By 2025, China's foreign trade has grown by 4%, with exports to Africa increasing by 56.4%, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics and a more diversified trade network [13][15] Group 2 - Despite high tariffs, China's response has evolved from passive defense to proactive strategies, utilizing key resources like rare earths and semiconductors to counter U.S. actions [16][18] - The capital markets reflect a growing recognition of China's integral role in the global economy, with companies like Tesla and Volkswagen continuing to invest in China despite geopolitical tensions [18][19] - The article emphasizes that the international order is shifting towards a more complex interdependence, where the costs of excluding China from global supply chains are becoming increasingly untenable for the U.S. [21][24][27]

人只有在最无助的时候，才知道谁是真朋友，谁是假兄弟，这句话用在现在的德国身上，简直太贴切了。就在几个月前，德国政客还在跟着美国后面喊"去 风险"，甚至对中国的廉价商品嗤之以鼻，摆出一副"高贵欧洲人"的架子。 然而，随着特朗普挥舞起关税大棒，无差别地收割欧洲盟友，德国经济瞬间陷入了寒冬。被美国背刺的德国，终于清醒了过来。 财长克林拜尔火速访华，不仅不再提那些刺耳的指责，反而把拿到中国稀土承诺当成了救命稻草。这一幕深刻地揭示了地缘政治的残酷真相：美国的盟友， 不过是美国的耗材；而中国，才是德国工业最后的避风港。 德国被迫重回中国怀抱 11月20日，德国政府公布的最新数据显示，今年前三季度，德国与中国的贸易总额逆势增长0.6%，达1859亿欧元，中国成功反超美国，再次成为德国最大 贸易伙伴。 与此同时，德国对美贸易额下降了3.9%。这一数据反转的背景，是特朗普重返白宫后，对欧盟实施了高达15%的基准关税。正是在这种巨大的外部压力下， 德国财长克林拜尔展开了访华之旅，并将获得中方关于稀土和关键原材料供应的承诺，视为此行的"最大成就"。 他之前可能也觉得中国包裹是"垃圾"，觉得中国制造冲击了德国产业。但当美国关税的大山 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the paradox of the U.S. striving for independence from China in rare earth production while facing significant supply chain challenges, particularly in consumer goods like Christmas trees, which are heavily reliant on Chinese imports [1][10][24]. Group 1: Rare Earth Industry - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra announced the production of the first domestically made rare earth magnet in 25 years, attributing this achievement to previous government policies aimed at reducing reliance on China [3][12]. - Despite the announcement, the U.S. still lacks the necessary technology and infrastructure for large-scale rare earth production, with 80% of global processing capacity and 90% of magnet production still in China [12][16]. - The U.S. faces a long road ahead to achieve self-sufficiency in rare earths, with significant cost implications, as Chinese rare earth prices are approximately 25% lower [17][24]. Group 2: Consumer Goods and Supply Chain - The U.S. imports 90% of its Christmas goods from China, particularly from Yiwu, which has started redirecting its products to the EU due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [7][10]. - U.S. Christmas tree imports dropped by 58% in August and 70% in September compared to the previous year, leading to skyrocketing prices for consumers [7][10]. - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have significantly increased costs for American consumers, with a Christmas tree that originally cost $1,000 now potentially costing $2,000 [10][19]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The tariffs have resulted in an estimated additional annual expenditure of about $800 per American household due to inflation caused by these trade policies [17][19]. - The article emphasizes that the push for "decoupling" from China has led to unintended consequences, affecting everyday consumers rather than achieving the intended political victories [24][25]. - The U.S. is caught in a structural anxiety, wanting to develop high-end industries while still relying on low-end manufacturing from China, highlighting the complexity of the supply chain dynamics [24][25].

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in China's export strategies due to changing market dynamics, particularly the decline in exports to the U.S. and the rise of alternative markets [1][3][12] Group 1: Export Market Changes - From 2018 to 2024, China's export share to the U.S. decreased from 14% to 11%, indicating a significant shift in trade dynamics [3] - By 2023, the export volume of electric vehicles surged by over 70%, reflecting a strategic pivot towards new markets [5] - The trend of using local currencies for transactions has become more common, with many trade agreements now prioritizing RMB settlements [15] Group 2: Industry Adaptation - Companies are increasingly diversifying their markets and building new supply chains outside the U.S., a strategy referred to as "selective coupling" [12][19] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, with firms betting on future technologies through increased R&D spending [17] - The establishment of new manufacturing bases in Southeast Asia involves complex supply chain restructuring, requiring time and careful planning [14] Group 3: Financial and Regulatory Environment - Financial regulations are evolving, with a focus on maintaining systemic stability while allowing for cross-border capital flows [17] - Data from financial institutions and customs is guiding companies in their strategic adjustments, highlighting the importance of real-time information in decision-making [19] Group 4: Workforce and Operational Changes - The labor market is adapting, with increased demand for roles related to Southeast Asian business expansion, reflected in higher salaries compared to two years ago [10] - Workers and engineers are increasingly involved in standard-setting processes, indicating a shift towards more collaborative and strategic industry practices [10]

Core Insights - The EU is increasingly concerned about its reliance on China for rare earth supplies following China's implementation of export restrictions, with only half of the approximately 2000 export applications approved [1][4] - The establishment of a "special communication channel" between the EU and China aims to stabilize the supply of rare earth materials for EU industries, with China agreeing to prioritize EU companies' export applications [1][4] - Despite these efforts, the EU acknowledges that it will continue to depend on China for rare earth resources in the short term due to the complexity and high costs associated with domestic mining and refining [2][4] Group 1 - The EU has submitted around 2000 rare earth export applications to China, with only half receiving approval, highlighting the challenges of decoupling from Chinese supply [1][4] - The EU's Economic Security Committee member stated that if China does not ease export restrictions, the EU's supply chains will face severe disruptions [1] - The EU is also exploring domestic rare earth resources, particularly in Estonia, to reduce dependence on China [1][2] Group 2 - The EU's plan to develop local rare earth resources faces significant challenges due to the complexity and high costs of extraction and refining processes [2] - The EU's high-tech manufacturing sectors, including electric vehicles, are heavily reliant on rare earths, with nearly 100% of these materials currently imported from China [2] - The EU previously proposed advanced mining technologies, including "space mining," to reduce reliance on China, but this has been met with skepticism due to technological limitations [2] Group 3 - EU member states have been warned that reducing dependence on Chinese rare earths is a difficult task, as many export applications remain unapproved [4] - The EU has proposed a general licensing system for rare earth exports to streamline the approval process, but this is still under discussion [4] - Analysts suggest that the EU may need to make concessions to China, such as lifting export controls on electric vehicles, to secure more rare earth imports [5] Group 4 - China's Ministry of Commerce has expressed a willingness to deepen cooperation with the EU, emphasizing the potential for mutual benefits and the need for a favorable trade environment [5][6] - The Chinese government has indicated that cooperation should be prioritized over setting economic barriers, signaling a potential path for improved trade relations [6]

Core Insights - The visit of Canadian Foreign Minister Anand to China is framed as a "de-escalation journey" amid rising tensions due to tariffs imposed by Canada on Chinese electric vehicles and steel, with China retaliating on agricultural products [1][3] - Despite political pressures, bilateral trade between Canada and China has shown resilience, with a reported trade volume of 133.3 billion CAD in 2024, marking a 6.1% year-on-year increase [3] - Canadian exports to China have increased by 7.8% in the first eight months of the year, highlighting the economic necessity for Canada to engage with China despite U.S. pressures [1][3] Trade Dynamics - The expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline has resulted in over 50% of Alberta's crude oil being exported to China, generating 2.78 billion CAD in revenue [3] - The liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects have also made significant progress, indicating a growing energy trade relationship between Canada and China [3] - The Canadian government is reviewing tariffs, signaling a potential shift towards restoring economic cooperation with China [3] U.S. Influence - U.S. intervention remains a constant factor, with media narratives emphasizing the sensitivity of Canada's engagement with China, urging caution [3] - The Australian Treasury's stance suggests that trade barriers are not a core interest, reflecting a broader understanding of the importance of economic ties, particularly as 96% of Canada's canola exports depend on the Chinese market [3] - The ability of Canada to navigate U.S. pressures while maintaining beneficial trade relations with China will be crucial for future cooperation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of potential 100% tariffs on Chinese imports proposed by Trump, highlighting the significant risks and challenges for the U.S. economy while suggesting that such threats are more political posturing than actionable policy [1][3][10]. Trade Relations - The U.S.-China bilateral trade volume reached $575 billion in 2023, indicating that imposing 100% tariffs would severely disrupt U.S. supply chains [3]. - In 2023, China's exports to ASEAN surpassed those to the U.S. for the first time, reaching approximately $550 billion, showcasing China's diversification in trade relationships [7]. Economic Impact - The Federal Reserve reported that U.S. manufacturing jobs have only increased by less than 4% compared to pre-pandemic levels, raising concerns about the capacity to support a decoupled market [5]. - Previous tariffs have already cost American households an average of $1,300 annually, and a 100% tariff could exacerbate inflation significantly [5]. Strategic Positioning - China has been preparing for potential decoupling since 2020, with strategies such as rare earth export management and expanding trade with regions like the Middle East and Africa [3][7]. - China's domestic chip import volume has been declining since 2022, with a domestic replacement rate reaching 45%, indicating a shift towards self-sufficiency [9]. Political Dynamics - Trump's rhetoric about tariffs appears to be more about electoral strategy than genuine intent, as the economic repercussions would likely harm his voter base [5][9]. - The article suggests that U.S. politicians are focused on electoral gains while Chinese companies prioritize survival and operational continuity [9].

Core Insights - The US-China trade war has lasted seven years, with neither side being completely excluded, indicating a complex interdependence rather than a straightforward victory for either party [1][15][17] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The trade war began in 2018, initiated by the US imposing tariffs citing intellectual property and trade deficits, leading to immediate retaliatory measures from China [1] - From 2019 to 2020, tariffs escalated, and while a phase one agreement was reached, core tax rates remained unchanged, indicating ongoing tensions [3] - The US aimed to remove China from key supply chains to enhance national security and manufacturing, but the economic realities proved more complicated, with businesses and consumers bearing the brunt of increased costs [5][11] Group 2: Economic Impact - The average tariff rate in the US rose to 37.4%, resulting in an annual burden of approximately $2,400 per household, without achieving the expected reduction in inflation or a significant return of manufacturing [5][15] - Despite the trade war, China's imports and exports have shown growth, with a 4% increase in total trade and a 7.1% rise in exports, particularly notable in African markets [7] Group 3: Strategic Responses - China's response has included bolstering domestic demand, advancing technological independence, and moving towards higher-end manufacturing, reflecting a proactive rather than purely defensive strategy [9][11] - The trade conflict has accelerated China's industrial upgrades in sectors like semiconductors and AI, with a shift from import substitution to export competition [11] Group 4: Global Trade Relations - Many countries, while publicly aligning with the US, are pragmatically balancing their trade relations, indicating a complex global landscape rather than a simple alignment against China [13] - The long-term effects of the trade war will likely reshape corporate structures, supply chain strategies, and global trade dynamics, emphasizing the interdependence between the US and China [15][18] Group 5: Future Considerations - The focus will shift from high-intensity confrontations to rule-based negotiations regarding technology standards and financial settlements, which may have a more significant impact than tariffs [18] - Companies are advised to diversify risks and enhance supply chain resilience while navigating the balance between openness and security in policy [18]