当地时间5月12日，联合国秘书长发言人迪雅里克在回答央视记者提问时表示，联合国秘书长古特雷斯 欢迎中美双方在日内瓦的会谈成果。迪雅里克表示，联合国欢迎中美两国在瑞士举行的关于贸易的直接 对话，这对世界经济来说是非常积极的信号。迪雅里克表示，贸易战不能升级，各方需要对话。迪雅里 克重申，古特雷斯明确表示没有人会在贸易战中获胜，"脱钩"的概念是让他非常担忧的议题之一，在多 个场合都对此表达过关切。所以，这毫无疑问是一个好的开端。(央视新闻) ...

Group 1 - The recent punitive tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese electric vehicles, batteries, photovoltaics, and semiconductors have reached a high of 245%, but their impact is limited compared to the initial tariffs introduced in 2018 [3][6] - The U.S. has lost its ability to control China's trajectory, as China has become less reliant on the U.S. market and is now focusing on "re-globalization" [3][6] - The tariffs, initially intended to disrupt supply chains and increase manufacturing costs, have turned into a political show for the U.S., resulting in limited effectiveness and self-harm [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. has not successfully brought manufacturing jobs back to the Rust Belt states; instead, inflation has increased, consumer costs have risen, and corporate investments have slowed down [5][9] - Chinese companies have proactively diversified their markets, targeting Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa, with no U.S. presence among the top five export destinations for Chinese electric vehicles [5][10] - The U.S. strategy of "decoupling" has failed, as it underestimated China's resilience and overestimated the willingness of allies to comply with U.S. directives [6][12] Group 3 - The essence of the tariff war is a struggle for control and dominance, with the U.S. attempting to exclude China from its technology, trade, and financial systems [6][9] - As the U.S. attempts to decouple, China is enhancing its internal circulation and innovation, developing self-reliant technologies in semiconductors and batteries [7][9] - The U.S. has transitioned from being a "rule-maker" to a "rule-disruptor," undermining the global systems it once established, while China continues to expand its influence within these systems [15][16] Group 4 - The recent tariffs are more of a political signal than a strategic tool, indicating a loss of control by the U.S. over its policies and objectives [13][16] - The competition between the U.S. and China is evolving from a simple power struggle to a contest of institutional resilience, economic endurance, and industrial strategy [15][18] - The U.S. has reached a point where its actions no longer dictate China's future, and the transfer of dominance is occurring subtly through repeated tariff increases [18]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's government has clearly stated its intention to resist the U.S. efforts to form an "economic cooperation mechanism to contain China," emphasizing that it will not compromise its economic relationship with China for the sake of negotiations with the U.S. [1] Economic and Trade Relations - China has been Japan's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years, with a trade volume expected to reach $370 billion in 2024, accounting for 20% of Japan's total foreign trade [2] - Japan's exports to China primarily consist of technology-intensive industries such as automobiles and semiconductor equipment, while China is a crucial source of rare earths and electronic components for Japan, with rare earths making up 60% of imports and electronic components 40% of Japan's supply chain [4] - Japanese automakers like Honda and Toyota derive 35% of their global profits from the Chinese market, indicating that a withdrawal from China could result in annual losses exceeding $40 billion for Japan's automotive industry [4] Strategic Resource Dependency - China controls 70% of global rare earth processing capacity, which is vital for Japan's electronics, high-end manufacturing, and defense industries [6] - Japan's precision instruments and core components are deeply embedded in China's manufacturing supply chain, creating an inseparable interdependence between the two nations [6] Japan's Refusal to Choose Sides - Japan faces significant economic constraints, with government debt totaling 300 trillion yen (approximately 300 billion USD) and a projected GDP growth rate of only 1.2% in 2024. The trade surplus with China, expected to reach $32 billion in 2024, is crucial for Japan's foreign exchange reserves and macroeconomic stability [10] - Despite being a U.S. ally, Japan adopts a pragmatic approach in strategic coordination, exemplified by its "differentiated execution" strategy in chip export controls, allowing exports of mature process chips to China to maintain its industrial competitiveness [10] - Japanese companies have invested over $1.3 trillion in China, creating 1.5 million jobs, with major corporations like Toyota and Sony pressuring the government to ensure stable market access to China [10] Global Implications - Japan's stance highlights the limits of alliance relationships when core economic interests are at stake, revealing inherent contradictions in unilateral alliance systems [11] - The deep economic interdependence between China and Japan demonstrates the resilience of globalized supply chains, suggesting that forced decoupling could lead to a lose-lose situation [11] - In the context of intensifying great power competition, smaller nations are increasingly adopting a "multi-balancing" strategy to maintain strategic autonomy [11] Future Outlook and Challenges - Japan's ability to maintain its "balancing act" will depend on effectively addressing strategic differences with the U.S. and structural conflicts with China [11] - Potential U.S. pressure through increased tariffs or security issues may force Japan to make difficult choices, while competition in sectors like semiconductors and new energy could pose new challenges to economic relations [11] - For China, continuing to expand openness and strengthen its advantages in key areas of the supply chain, particularly in rare earth processing and new energy markets, remains essential for navigating external changes [11]

调查：指数接近跌停的时刻，你是恐慌还是兴奋？ 熊猫不回撤 当然兴奋咯，毕竟还有几千万的im空单呢。 资水 恐慌啥？明明白白的黄金坑，部队分批入场，确定今年又是一个丰收年。 seeker24680 如果非要说的话，可能是麻木吧，心态毫无波澜。 drwangting 每到这个时候，我都是脑瓜子嗡嗡的。从来没明确观点和信心。 资水 @ziyubufen 老师，已经收盘了，想买想卖也动不了了。抽空说一下"明明白白""确定"，是从哪方面来说 的？ 从动机看， 特朗普并不是真想把税加到那么高 。 作为，中国人，虽然我亏钱了。但我还是很高兴。 因为，懂王，正在毁掉，美国的经济霸权。 2008年经济危机，其实就是西方世界衰弱的开始。而这次如果是美国总统直接导致的世界经济危 机，美国的软实力在全世界会进一步衰弱，没人会把美国当成可靠的伙伴，稳定世界的力量。 俄乌战争，打破了北约的军事神话。 巴以战争，打破了美国的道德高地。 关税战争，打破了美国的经济霸权。 10年前，我还是亲美的。但是，我亲的是正常，负责任的，维持稳定的国际秩序的美国，和中国 保持合作关系的美国。而不是，让全世界陷入混乱的美国，以中国为敌的美国。 打新交朋友 ...