qenqpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 2026年01月06日 时 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 申万宏源研究微信服务 设备投资,能否"持续高 宏观专题报告 展望 2026 年, 部分观点认为"两新"政策退坡或拖累制造业与设备投资, 但其中存在较多 "误解"。 一问: 设备投资高增的"认知误区"? 并非源于"两新"政策与制造业朱格拉周期。 误区一："设备投资强"源于"朱格拉周期"；但实际上源于广义基建、服务业投资走强。2024 年 建筑业（65.5%）、狭义基建（46.1%）、公用事业（16.5%）、服务业（13.9%）设备购置投资增 速均明显高于制造业（6.5%），额外贡献整体设备投资 8.2 个百分点；2025 年 11 月制造业投资增 速下行至 1.9%，但设备投资保持高增长（12.2%），也源于数字基 ...

Group 1: Misconceptions about Equipment Investment Growth - Equipment investment growth is not primarily driven by the "Juga Cycle" but rather by strong infrastructure and service sector investments, with construction industry growth at 65.5% and narrow infrastructure at 46.1% in 2024, contributing an additional 8.2 percentage points to overall equipment investment[2] - The notion that equipment investment strength is influenced by the "Two New" policies is misleading; significant increases in manufacturing investment and equipment purchases occurred as early as February 2024, with equipment purchase investment growth reaching 17%[2] - Manufacturing equipment purchase investment growth was only 6.5% in 2024, significantly lower than the overall equipment investment growth of 15.7%[3] Group 2: Drivers of Equipment Investment Growth - The establishment of a modern industrial system has driven strong digital infrastructure investments, with software industry growth at 53% and computer services at 35%, contributing to overall equipment investment[4] - Public utility equipment investment has surged since the "dual carbon" policy was intensified in 2021, with electricity and heat equipment investment growth at 17.6%[4] - Service sector equipment investment has outpaced construction investment since 2023, with growth rates of 13.9% compared to 2.8% for construction investment in 2024[5] Group 3: Sustainability of Equipment Investment Growth - Equipment investment is expected to continue high growth in 2026, supported by a rebound in narrow infrastructure, particularly in digital infrastructure and hub-related investments[6] - The "dual carbon" policy is anticipated to further enhance investment in carbon reduction technologies, including high-energy-consuming industry upgrades and renewable energy investments[6] - Policies focused on "investing in people" are likely to increase service sector equipment investment, with a projected growth rate of around 6% in 2026, surpassing the overall fixed asset investment growth of 3%[7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 is reported at 50.1%, indicating a return to the expansion zone with a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points. Large enterprises show a PMI of 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises exhibit PMIs of 49.8% and 48.6%, respectively, indicating varying levels of improvement and pressure [6] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 51.7%, reflecting a significant acceleration in production activities. The new orders index is at 50.8%, indicating improved market demand and increased order volumes [6] - The machine tool industry in China achieved a cumulative revenue of 942.1 billion yuan from January to November 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. Notably, the metal cutting machine segment saw a revenue increase of 10.5% [9] - Industrial robots maintained a rapid growth trajectory, with a cumulative production of 673,800 units from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.2% [9] Summary by Sections Manufacturing PMI - December 2025 manufacturing PMI is 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion [6] - Large enterprises' PMI is 50.8%, medium enterprises at 49.8%, and small enterprises at 48.6%, showing varying levels of operational improvement [6] - The production index is 51.7%, and the new orders index is 50.8%, both indicating positive trends in manufacturing activity [6] Machine Tool Industry - Cumulative revenue from January to November 2025 is 942.1 billion yuan, with a 1.3% year-on-year growth [9] - Metal cutting machine revenue increased by 10.5%, with production reaching 783,000 units, a 12.7% year-on-year growth [9] - New orders for metal processing machines grew by 6.3% year-on-year, while the total import and export value reached 30.31 billion USD, a 5.4% increase [9] Industrial Robots - Cumulative production of industrial robots from January to November 2025 is 673,800 units, a 29.2% year-on-year increase [9] - Cumulative sales reached 723,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 46.04% [9] - Export quantity increased by 81.65%, with a total export value of 494 million USD, reflecting a 60.55% year-on-year growth [9]

Summary of Danaher Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Danaher Corporation - **Industry**: Life Sciences Tools and Diagnostics Key Points Financial Performance - Danaher reported a strong third quarter, beating expectations on revenue, earnings, and cash flow, with a core growth of 3% and over 10% earnings per share (EPS) growth [2][3] - The company is reinvesting the additional cash flow into productivity improvements for future growth [2] Growth Projections for 2026 - Danaher anticipates a core growth rate of 3%-6% for 2026, with high single-digit EPS growth expected even at the lower end of this range [3][4] - The growth in bioprocessing is projected to be high single digits, primarily driven by consumables, with equipment sales expected to remain flat [4][5] Market Dynamics - The operating environment is improving but not yet normalized, with specific challenges in the life sciences and diagnostics segments [3][5] - The diagnostics segment faced headwinds from volume-based procurement changes, with an estimated impact of $75-$100 million in 2026 [6][20] Regional Insights - In China, Danaher has seen a return to growth in bioprocessing, driven by innovation and licensing deals in the pharmaceutical sector [16][19] - The diagnostics market in China is stabilizing, with expectations for future growth, albeit at a slower rate than in the past [20][21] Segment Performance - **Bioprocessing**: Strong growth in consumables, particularly in monoclonal antibodies, which constitute 90% of Danaher's supply [4][5] - **Life Sciences**: Limited end-market improvement expected, with academic and government segments down but pharma business growing [24] - **Diagnostics**: Mid to high single-digit growth outside of China, with new innovations expected to drive future growth [42][43] Innovation and Product Development - Danaher continues to invest in innovation, launching new products such as the 8600 ZenoTOF mass spectrometer and AI-enabled solutions for cell line picking [27][28] - The company is focused on enhancing its diagnostics capabilities, particularly in high-resolution immunoanalyzers and AI-enabled digital pathology [43][44] M&A Strategy - Danaher maintains a strong bias towards M&A as a means to create shareholder value, focusing on assets with value reserves and strong market positions [32][34] - The company has also engaged in share buybacks when relative returns on investment are favorable [34] Service Offerings - Danaher prefers product-related businesses over pure-play services, emphasizing innovation and proprietary positions [36] Conclusion - Danaher is positioned for growth with a focus on innovation, strategic investments, and a strong market presence in bioprocessing and diagnostics, despite facing some challenges in specific segments and regions [2][3][4][5][6]

Core Insights - In June, U.S. core capital goods orders unexpectedly declined, indicating a slowdown in equipment investment as the effects of preemptive purchasing before tariff increases faded [1] - The month-over-month change in non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, fell by 0.7%, contrary to the expected growth of 0.2% [1] - The May data was revised upward to a growth of 2.0% [1] Equipment Investment Trends - Core capital goods shipments increased by 0.4% in June, down from 0.5% in May [1] - Some businesses are beginning to delay capital expenditure plans due to heightened uncertainty regarding the final levels of tariffs [1] Manufacturing Sector Outlook - A survey by S&P Global indicated that the preliminary manufacturing PMI for July fell into contraction for the first time since December of the previous year [1] - S&P noted that while import tariffs provided some protective effects, rising prices and increased costs have become greater concerns for businesses [1]