Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is considering returning tariff revenue to low- and middle-income Americans in the form of rebate checks, which could potentially boost the stock market and stimulate consumer spending and economic growth [2][3][5]. Group 1: Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - The U.S. has collected over $150 billion from tariffs, significantly exceeding historical levels, providing a financial basis for potential rebate plans [2][4]. - Analysts are focused on the implications of this potential fiscal stimulus on consumer spending and economic growth, which may further drive stock market gains [2][3]. Group 2: Rebate Plan Details - Trump has suggested that the government might distribute "dividends" or rebates to specific income groups, indicating a possible plan to return a portion of tariff revenue to the public [3][4]. - The proposal for small rebates was previously mentioned by Trump, who indicated that the new funds could also be used to reduce national debt, while hinting at rebates for low- and middle-income groups [5]. - Senator Josh Hawley has introduced legislation to provide at least $600 checks to American adults, with additional funds for families with children, aligning with Trump's rebate proposal [5].

Group 1 - The Trump administration is considering returning tariff revenue to low- and middle-income Americans in the form of rebate checks, which could positively impact the stock market [1][2] - As of the end of July, the U.S. has collected over $150 billion from tariffs, significantly higher than the previously reported $100 billion [1] - Trump has indicated that the new funds could be used to reduce national debt, but also hinted at the possibility of issuing rebates to specific income groups [2][3] Group 2 - Senator Josh Hawley proposed a bill to distribute at least $600 checks to American adults, with an additional $600 for each dependent child, aligning with Trump's suggestion of rebate checks [2] - Previous discussions regarding the distribution of "dividend checks" have not progressed significantly, originally intended to come from savings from federal workforce reductions [2] - In February, Trump mentioned that using 20% of savings from the DOGE program for rebates would be a "good idea," but the White House has not provided updates on the status of this plan [3]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market outperformed most major markets in the first half of the year, with a significant increase in trading volume and a booming IPO market [1][2] - The average daily trading volume reached HKD 240.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 82.2%, with a peak in February at HKD 297.3 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 20%, 19%, and 18.7% respectively, outperforming most overseas markets [1] Trading Activity - The average daily trading volume of derivatives increased by 10% during the first half of the year [1] - Southbound trading accounted for 23.1% of the overall market trading volume, up from 18.3% in 2024, with a net buy of HKD 731.2 billion, equivalent to 91% of last year's total [2] - The average daily short-selling volume was HKD 37 billion, representing 15.4% of the total market volume [2] IPO Market - A total of 42 new stocks were listed in the first half of the year, raising HKD 107.1 billion, which is seven times higher than the same period last year, making Hong Kong the top global market for IPOs [2] - Four of the new listings raised over HKD 5 billion, and seven were A+H shares, collectively raising about HKD 77 billion [2] Market Stability - The nominal value of over-the-counter derivatives tracking Hong Kong stocks and indices increased from HKD 1.3 trillion to approximately HKD 1.6 trillion, while maintaining a stable ratio to the market capitalization [1] - The total short positions reached HKD 707.1 billion, an increase of HKD 259.6 billion from the end of last year, accounting for 1.73% of the market capitalization [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that the outcome of the upcoming elections in Japan could significantly impact the 30-year Japanese government bond yield, with potential scenarios leading to yields ranging from 2.90% to 3.2% depending on the ruling party's performance [1] Group 1: Election Impact on Bond Yields - If the ruling party wins a majority, moderate fiscal stimulus measures may lower the 30-year Japanese government bond yield to approximately 2.90% [1] - Conversely, if the ruling party fails to secure a majority, the prospect of large-scale fiscal stimulus could push the 30-year bond yield up to 3.2% [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Investor Sentiment - Following market deterioration in May, the ultra-long Japanese government bonds temporarily stabilized, but weak supply and demand dynamics resurfaced after the July auction of 30-year bonds [1] - Investors remain concerned about the risks to Japan's fiscal discipline amid a backdrop of structural supply and demand weakness [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of U.S. trade policies, particularly the proposed tariffs by President Trump on Japan and other trade partners, which have led to fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly the USD/JPY [1][2] - Following Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on Japan and other countries, the USD/JPY exchange rate rose to its highest point in over two weeks, indicating market reactions to trade tensions [1] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan are at an impasse, primarily due to Japan's reluctance to compromise on rice market protection, which is affecting the value of the yen [2] Group 2 - The Euro is holding steady against the dollar as the market speculates on the possibility of the EU receiving exemptions from U.S. tariffs, which could influence currency valuations [2] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice before the end of the year, while the European Central Bank is only expected to lower rates once, affecting the relative strength of the euro against the dollar [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights South Korea's fiscal stimulus measures, which include cash disbursements and financial assistance [1] Group 2 - The fiscal stimulus aims to support the economy amid ongoing challenges [1] - Cash payments are expected to provide immediate relief to households [1] - Financial assistance is targeted at sectors most affected by economic downturns [1]

Group 1 - The investment outlook for the second half of 2025 will be influenced by three main themes: the stock market led by large U.S. tech companies expanding to a broader market, a shift in the bond market favoring corporate credit over developed market sovereign bonds, and the increasing importance of active asset allocation strategies in a slowing growth and high inflation environment [1] - U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from trade partners are expected to create supply shocks and negatively impact global demand, while fiscal measures like deregulation and tax cuts may pose additional upside risks to economic growth and inflation [1] - The current investment environment is returning to one where returns are generated from a wider range of regions and sectors, necessitating a diversified investment strategy and flexible deployment from investors [1][2] Group 2 - China is advancing in artificial intelligence technology, with expectations for accelerated technological innovation in the coming years, despite challenges in computing power [2] - The transformation of the Chinese consumer market is creating opportunities in sectors such as collectible brands, fresh beverages, and leisure snacks, driven by evolving consumption patterns [2] - The focus on diversifying investments into higher-quality and more resilient emerging market regions is seen as beneficial in navigating risks associated with trade, inflation, and policy movements [2] Group 3 - Given high valuations, there is a cautious stance on stocks, particularly U.S. equities, while European and emerging market stocks are viewed more favorably due to competitive earnings prospects and potential benefits from stimulus measures [3] - A lower allocation to bonds is anticipated due to upward pressure on U.S. interest rates, although a higher allocation to higher-yielding bonds is favored as their fundamentals remain supportive [3] - In a volatile market environment, maintaining a higher allocation to cash is considered prudent as it offers attractive returns and liquidity [3]

Group 1 - Investor confidence in the German economic outlook has improved significantly, primarily due to an upcoming surge in public spending that offsets concerns over U.S. tariffs [1] - The ZEW expectation index rose to 47.5 in June, up from 25.2 in the previous month, exceeding the median forecast [1] - The current situation indicator also showed improvement, reinforcing the assessment that the fiscal policy measures announced by the new German government could boost the economy [1] Group 2 - Achim Wambach, president of ZEW, stated that recent European Central Bank interest rate cuts may end Germany's nearly three-year economic stagnation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-myung prioritizes economic revitalization, focusing on high-tech industries like AI and semiconductors to enhance competitiveness and create jobs [1][4]. Economic Policy and Market Response - Lee Jae-myung's administration aims to address multiple economic challenges, including regional development disparities and job creation [1][4]. - Following Lee's inauguration, the KOSPI index rose over 4%, rebounding more than 20% from April lows, nearing a bull market [1][8]. - The South Korean won appreciated by 1.50% against the US dollar, reaching a recent high of 1351.80 [1]. Political Stability and Governance - The end of political vacuum is expected to improve the political risk index in South Korea, with a current score of 18.85, down from over 20 [4][8]. - Lee's government is anticipated to have a stable political environment until at least the 2028 National Assembly elections, enhancing policy implementation capabilities [1][4]. Trade Relations and Tariff Negotiations - The new government is prioritizing tariff negotiations with the US, with a focus on reaching a comprehensive agreement by July 8 [5][6]. - The outcome of these negotiations is critical, as South Korea's exports to the US in sectors like automobiles and steel face significant tariffs [5][6]. Economic Growth Forecasts - Despite a 0.2% contraction in Q1 2025, market expectations for South Korea's economic growth are improving, with forecasts for real GDP growth adjusted upwards by major financial institutions [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea from 0.7% to 1.1%, while Morgan Stanley adjusted its projections for 2025 and 2026 to 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively [9][10]. Investment Sentiment - Lee's commitment to boosting the stock market, with aspirations for the KOSPI index to reach 5000 points, has attracted renewed interest from global asset management firms [10].

Market Overview - The South Korean KOSPI index increased by 1.02%, reaching 2799.20 points, with a gain of 28.36 points [2][3] - The Japanese Nikkei 225 index decreased by 0.16%, closing at 37688.48 points, down by 58.75 points [4][5] South Korea - Newly elected President Lee Jae-myung issued his first executive order to establish an emergency economic inspection team [2][3] - Lee emphasized "practical diplomacy" and aims to maximize national interests, indicating plans for fiscal measures to stimulate economic growth [3] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs believe that the election results will reassess the stock market, predicting a boost in the Korean stock market and currency due to Lee's presidency [3] Japan - Japanese automotive stocks, including Subaru, Mazda, Nissan, and Honda, experienced declines of over 2% [4][5] - Japan's real wages adjusted for inflation fell by 1.8% year-on-year in April, marking the fourth consecutive month of significant decline due to inflationary pressures [5] - UBS Asset Management suggested Japan halt the issuance of long-term government bonds to mitigate selling pressure, as the 40-year Japanese government bond yield surged to 3.675%, the highest since its introduction in 2007 [6]