Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, which may be the last cut in the current cycle [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The anticipated rate cut is influenced by declining energy prices and upcoming fiscal stimulus measures [1] - The global economic recession risk has decreased, prompting a more cautious approach to further policy actions [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Market expectations are fully aligned with the anticipated 25 basis point cut on Thursday, with another cut expected before the end of the year [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser believes that China has the capability and determination to stimulate economic vitality and achieve its growth targets despite challenges from the US trade dispute [1][3] - Hauser observed that Chinese business leaders are generally confident about China's ability to gain an advantage in the trade war, with many believing that fiscal stimulus measures have positively impacted the economy since January [3][4] - The sentiment among Australian companies regarding collaboration with China is optimistic, supported by expectations of improved market conditions in early 2025 and confidence in the Chinese government's ability to maintain economic vitality [4] Group 2 - Hauser noted that the Chinese anticipate that the actual costs of US tariffs will be borne by the US itself, and there is a strong resolve in China not to mitigate this impact [4] - The general belief among the Chinese is that a significant depreciation of the yuan would lessen the impact of US tariffs on American consumers, but there is little support for this idea as China does not wish to alleviate the tariff burden on the US [4]