Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the South Korean won (KRW) has significant appreciation potential, being undervalued by approximately 12% according to Nomura's model, making it one of the most undervalued currencies among emerging markets and G10 currencies [1][3][4] - The discussions between South Korean and U.S. officials regarding the KRW/USD exchange rate suggest that the U.S. government may favor a weaker dollar, potentially making exchange rates a key topic in upcoming trade negotiations [2][3] - The South Korean National Pension Service (NPS) may increase its foreign exchange hedging ratio, which could significantly boost demand for the KRW, especially if the NPS raises its overseas investment hedging ratio to 10% [1][4] Group 2 - Basic economic factors also support the appreciation of the KRW, as various models indicate that the currency remains undervalued, reinforcing the notion that external pressures are not the sole drivers of its potential rise [3][4] - The potential for foreign investment outflows or currency hedging by asset management firms, which manage approximately $1.3 trillion, poses a risk that could further influence the KRW's value [4] - As of May 9, 2025, South Korean retail investors have a total overseas investment of $139 billion, with indications that they are selling overseas assets due to concerns over a weakening dollar, which could impact the KRW [4]

Group 1: Currency Appreciation and Economic Impact - The recent appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) against the US Dollar has been significant, with a cumulative increase of approximately 9% between May 2 and May 5, and a single-day surge of 5% on May 5, causing shockwaves in global financial markets [1] - Currency appreciation can be detrimental for export-driven economies, as it makes export products more expensive, potentially leading to a long-term decline in exports and negatively impacting economic stability and employment [3] - Taiwan's economy is heavily reliant on exports, with total exports exceeding $430 billion in 2023, accounting for 58% of its GDP, which is significantly higher than most countries [5] Group 2: Hong Kong Dollar Stability - The Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) has remained stable within the range of 7.75 to 7.79 HKD per USD, largely due to its pegged exchange rate system, which has been in place since October 17, 1983 [7] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened in the market by absorbing USD sell orders to maintain the HKD's stability, injecting a total of 116.6 billion HKD into the market from May 2 to May 5 [7][8] - The demand for HKD has surged due to increased IPO activities in the Hong Kong stock market, with 147 companies applying for listings by the end of April, and the need for companies to convert USD to HKD for dividend payments [10] Group 3: Broader Currency Trends - Many Asian currencies, including the NTD, have experienced appreciation, while the offshore RMB also saw an increase during the May Day holiday, indicating a broader trend in the region [5] - The ongoing inflation pressures in the US, driven by tariffs and rising costs, limit the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates, which keeps investors inclined to hold USD assets [12]

瑞士联邦主席：瑞士法郎的升值是与美国讨论的一个反复出现的话题，瑞士持续强调瑞士央行的职责是 维护价格稳定。 ...

台湾当局否认调整汇率，但在市场上，新台币买入仍占主导地位…… 从5月5日的纽约汇率行情来看，新台币对美元汇率急剧升值。与上周末相比升值6%，达到1美 元兑28新台币左右，创出2022年4月以来、时隔约2年的最高水平。美国彭博社报道称，作为 单日波动率创出了1988年以来的新高。随着与美国的贸易谈判，有观点认为美国将要求台湾 推动货币升值。 新台币一度升值至1美元兑28.815新台币。台湾当局否认调整汇率，但在市场上，新台币买入 仍占主导地位。 其背后是对台湾与美国关税谈判的市场预期。有观点认为，根据希望美元贬值的美国总统特 朗普的意向，台湾方面在关税谈判中就货币升值达成了协议。新台币在上周末的5月2日也对 美元出现了升值。 路透社报道称，赖清德5月5日发表紧急声明，否认了这种市场观测，并明确表示"正因为造成 台美贸易逆差的原因与汇率无关，台美之间的谈判，自然不会提及汇率议题"。 台湾的中央银行也在当天举行记者会，总裁杨金龙表示："央行也呼吁厂商不要听信市场过度 夸大或不实的分析，产生非理性的预期而抛汇，最终反而损及自身利益"。 市场对新台币维持升值预期。由于考虑到美国关税政策的抢搭末班车出口，台湾的出口额处 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) continues to buy US dollars to defend the currency peg, injecting HKD 60.543 billion due to the prolonged strong side of the peg at 7.75 against the USD [2] - Since last Friday, the HKMA has absorbed USD 7.812 billion in sell orders, raising the banking system's balance to HKD 161.384 billion [2] - The HKMA's total injections since last week amount to HKD 116.614 billion, with the recent interventions attributed to the weakening USD and concerns over trade agreements [2] Group 2 - The New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) experienced its largest increase since 1988, rising by 5% on Monday, prompting local authorities to address speculation about the currency's surge [3] - Taiwan's trade negotiation office clarified that the US did not request the TWD to appreciate, and recent negotiations did not involve foreign exchange policy [4] - Concerns among local exporters regarding the TWD's strength are rising, particularly affecting companies like TSMC, which saw a 1.3% drop in stock price [4] Group 3 - Taiwanese insurance companies hold approximately TWD 575 billion in US government bonds, with many lacking adequate hedging against a weakening USD, leading to potential losses [5] - The recent surge in TWD has led to a significant increase in trading volume, reaching the highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis [4] - Taiwan has been placed on the US Treasury's currency monitoring list, and the TWD's appreciation may be viewed as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations [8]

伯克希尔是巴菲特60年前买的一个纺织厂，后来纺织业衰退，纺织厂关闭，公司开始向金融行业转型。 巴菲特收购了保险公司，利用收上来的保费做投资，相当于用别人的钱投资赚钱。 几十年间伯克希尔收购了189家公司，员工近40万，去年这189家公司的营运利润是474亿美元，给伯克 希尔提供了稳定的现金流。国内商场经常能看到的DQ冰淇淋，就是这189家公司之一。 昨晚写伯克希尔股东大会，以及巴菲特将于年底退休，但后台有大量用户留言对伯克希尔公司存在误 解，以为它是巴菲特成立的一个投资基金，其实没那么简单，我扩展介绍一下。 我觉得未来5年，美债、美元指数、汇率、贸易、关税会是彼此作用的复杂关系，说真的我有些被巴菲 特说的未来5年极具价值的机会给吓到了，我打算美股抄底的节奏放缓，另外我有些后悔黄金仓位不够 高，感觉无论是美债危机还是美元贬值，亦或者美股大跌，黄金都是好东西。 …… 1、五一假期预计区域人员流动14.67亿人次，同比增长8%，消费额目前还没统计出来，估计也是大个 数的增幅。炒旅游概念的话4月中上旬就可以埋伏了，4月17日就见顶开始跌，等到五一结束出货都到尾 声了。 这189家子公司有高度自治权，巴菲特只管ceo任 ...

截至3月4日，投机资金的日元兑美元净买入量达到13.3651万手，比上周增加约4成，创出历史最高 纪录。市场上特朗普牵制日元贬值的看法加强，投机资金增加了押注日元升值的交易…… 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的数据显示，截至3月4日，对冲基金等非商业部门(投机资金)的日元兑 美元净买入量达到13.3651万手（约1.67万亿日元），比上周增加约4成，创出历史最高纪录。受美国总 统特朗普牵制日元贬值的言论和美国经济不稳定的影响，日元买入和美元卖出的趋势有所加强。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 受投机资金买入日元的影响，现货市场的日元兑美元升值正在加强。3月7日，日元一度升值至1美元兑 146日元左右，创出了自2024年10月上旬以来、时隔约4个月的最高水平。在3月10日的东京市场，也一 度升值至147日元左右。 另一方面，也有观点认为日元升值不会长期持续。持有日元多头头寸会产生美日利差导致的成本。因 此，如果日元升值变得难以预测，平掉日元多头持仓的趋势就容易加强。索尼金融集团的高级分析师森 本淳太郎表示，"短期内，日元有可能会升值到1美元兑145日元左右，但或许不会转变为长期的日元 ...