周五菲律宾比索跌至一周低点，亚洲多数其他区域货币在窄幅区间内波动，韩国与新加坡股票市场则飙 升至历史新高。 菲律宾比索下跌0.3%，创下2月12日以来的最低水平。此前菲律宾央行周四宣布降息25个基点，该举措 已基本被市场提前消化，并未立即引发市场波动。 不过，央行行长的表态令投资者保持谨慎，他称政策前景将取决于经济信心恢复的速度。 DBS银行高级经济学家Radhika Rao表示："菲律宾央行此次降息伴随谨慎指引，反映出经济复苏弱于预 期、信心指标走软以及政府支出延迟。" 本周迄今，比索已上涨0.4%，有望结束连续四周下跌的态势。 分析师还指出，油价上涨可能影响亚洲货币，尤其是菲律宾比索。 加拿大皇家银行资本市场亚洲宏观策略师Abbas Keshvani称："今年初以来，布伦特原油价格每桶已上 涨约10美元，这略微削弱了亚洲外汇的看涨前景。" "该区域多数主要经济体都是石油净进口国，尤其是泰国、印度、韩国和菲律宾，如果能源价格居高不 下，比索将面临更大的贬值压力。" 在亚洲其他市场，印尼盾早盘下跌0.2%，但很快收复跌幅，持平运行。 印尼与美国周五签署互惠贸易协议，美国对印尼出口商品征收的19%关税保持不变。 ...

Group 1 - The Singapore dollar has slightly weakened against the US dollar, with the USD/SGD rising by 0.1% to 1.2620 SGD [1] - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia's global economic and market research team indicates that the US dollar is likely to consolidate this week [1] - Upcoming US economic data, including the FOMC January meeting minutes and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, are not expected to significantly alter market expectations regarding Fed rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The market currently anticipates a high probability of a rate cut in June, which aligns with the research team's view [1]

·中金：相关资源股行情并未结束 ·分析师：近期科技股抛售并不意味着AI投资热潮结束 ·调查显示英国就业市场初现暖意 ·一项受到英国央行货币政策委员会密切关注的调查显示，尽管雇主在1月继续缩减长期岗位的招聘，但 缩减速度已放缓至18个月以来的最低水平。这份由英国招聘与就业联合会（REC）开展的调查还显示， 企业自去年10月以来首次增加了临时工的派遣量。REC的这份报告进一步证明了英国经济在2026年正迎 来转机。 ·凯投宏观亚太区主管Marcel Thieliant指出，日本拟暂停对食品征收销售税，预计将导致通胀率下降约两 个百分点，甚至可能令整体通胀率进入负值区域。即便今年和明年赤字有所扩大，凭借强劲的名义GDP 增长，公共债务占GDP比率仍将进一步快速下降。 ·法国巴黎银行经济学家表示，鉴于日本首相高市早苗的扩张性财政政策可能进一步推升通胀，预计日 本央行将以略快于此前的节奏加息。分析师预计，日本央行将在4月加息，随后每隔四到五个月将继续 收紧政策，直到政策利率达到2%。 ·据马来亚银行（Maybank）外汇研究与策略报告，因区域股市普遍上涨带动风险偏好，新加坡元走 强。报告指出："当前环境下，美元偏向下行 ...

据马来亚 银行（Maybank）外汇研究与策略报告，因区域股市普遍上涨带动风险偏好，新加坡元在亚 洲时段兑美元走强。报告指出："当前环境下，美元风险偏向下行，而我们对新加坡元保持建设性观 点。"分析师表示，这一判断基于新加坡经济增长强劲、通胀可控，以及新加坡元作为避险资产的可信 度。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Singapore dollar has slightly weakened against the US dollar due to expectations that the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts, reflecting concerns about inflation among Fed officials [1][1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Analysts from CIMB's funds and markets research department indicate that Federal Reserve officials are cautious regarding inflation, suggesting that the policy interest rate may remain unchanged for some time until inflation shows further signs of slowing down and the labor market does not experience significant negative surprises [1][1]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate - According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the USD/SGD exchange rate has increased by 0.1%, reaching 1.2729 [1][1].

格隆汇2月4日｜在亚洲交易时段，新加坡元兑美元汇率维持横盘整理，但美联储可能在较长时间内维持 高利率的前景或许会令其承压。联昌国际国库与市场研究部分析师在报告中指出，鉴于通胀依然高企， 美联储理事鲍曼和里士满联储主席巴尔金均发出了可能需要更长时间才会进一步降息的信号。此外分析 师还提到，巴尔金认为美联储近期的降息举措有助于支撑美国劳动力市场。FactSet 数据显示，美元兑 新加坡元变动不大，报 1.2698。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Group 1 - The recent decline of the US dollar index has raised concerns about "de-dollarization" and geopolitical risks, prompting market attention [1][15] - Bloomberg Industry Research predicts that the Chinese yuan and Malaysian ringgit could generate excess returns for Asian currency portfolios due to structural advantages and reduced correlation with the dollar [1][15] - The relative performance of low-interest and high-interest Asian currencies will depend on the timing of the "de-dollarization" trend [1][15] Group 2 - Zhao Zhixuan, Bloomberg's Chief Forex and Rates Strategist for Asia, suggests that the dollar index may need to fall below 90 to trigger policy intervention, indicating further downside potential from current levels [1][15] - The yuan is expected to be the most favored currency this year, with the USD/CNY exchange rate potentially challenging the 6.7 to 6.8 level [1][11] - The dollar faces multiple structural challenges, including portfolio rotation away from US assets, ongoing arbitrage trading, and expectations of a weak dollar policy [1][15] Group 3 - European institutions, including Danish pension funds, have begun to exit the US Treasury market, with China's holdings of US debt at their lowest level since 2008 [2][16] - The trend of reducing US Treasury holdings is likely to continue, but a complete sell-off is unrealistic due to the lack of alternative markets with similar depth and liquidity [2][16] - The future may see a coexistence of multiple reserve currencies and regionalization of currency use, although the dollar's leading position is unlikely to be replaced in the short term [2][16] Group 4 - Concerns over Japan's "monetary fiscalization" have led to selling pressure on its long-term bonds, which may transmit pressure to global bond markets [2][24] - The Japanese yen is expected to strengthen against the dollar this year, with a reasonable equilibrium exchange rate around 129 [2][24][25] - Other Asian currencies are expected to show divergence, with low-interest currencies like the Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Singapore dollar benefiting from a declining dollar cycle [2][12] Group 5 - The yuan is viewed as the most promising currency this year, with expectations of steady appreciation against both the dollar and a basket of currencies [2][11][26] - Factors supporting the yuan's appreciation include favorable policies, interest rate differentials, and capital inflows from the stock market [2][11][26] - The Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Singapore dollar are also expected to strengthen, while high-interest currencies like the Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah, and Indian rupee may weaken due to fiscal stability concerns [2][12][29]

Group 1 - The US dollar experienced its worst week in nearly eight months, declining 1.7% against a basket of major currencies due to domestic and international policy uncertainties [1] - The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar, rising nearly 1%, while the South Korean won increased by 1.4%, marking its largest gain in over a month [1] - The Malaysian ringgit reached its highest level since 2018, driven by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and domestic economic growth [1] Group 2 - Since Prime Minister Fumio Kishida took office, the yen has depreciated over 5% against the dollar, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal health and debt sustainability [2] - Kishida announced plans for tax cuts and increased spending, which have intensified market fears regarding Japan's financial situation [2] - Japanese officials have indicated they are closely monitoring exchange rate fluctuations and may intervene in the currency market if necessary [2][3]

Group 1 - The Singapore dollar has risen to its highest level against the US dollar since October 2014, driven by safe-haven inflows [1][3] - The Singapore dollar increased by over 0.4% to 1.2680, as market speculation suggests potential US intervention in the Japanese foreign exchange market, putting pressure on the dollar [1][3] - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is expected to maintain its policy unchanged during the upcoming meeting, as core inflation remains stable [1][3] Group 2 - MAS focuses on the nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) rather than interest rates as its primary policy tool, allowing it to fluctuate within a policy band [1][3] - Singapore has attracted numerous investors due to its high-dividend stock market, AAA-rated bonds, and relatively stable government policies [1][3] - The Straits Times Index is currently at a historical high, and the Singapore dollar has appreciated approximately 6% over the past 12 months [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Singapore dollar is experiencing a consolidation trend against the US dollar, with market attention on the potential for intervention by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [1] Exchange Rate Analysis - Analysts from Malayan Banking Berhad noted that the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) of the Singapore dollar has risen to 1.8% above the midpoint of its NEER fluctuation range, indicating a risk of potential intervention [1] - The current exchange rate for USD/SGD is reported at 1.2804, showing little change [1] Monetary Policy Framework - The MAS's monetary policy framework focuses on managing the Singapore dollar against a basket of trade-weighted currencies (SGD NEER), ensuring that the SGD NEER remains within the predetermined range [1]