Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Spot gold reached a record high of $3,790.97 per ounce on Tuesday, closing at $3,763.93, with an increase of 0.46% [1] - The strong momentum in the gold market is driven by ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions, which have heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets [1] - Market sentiment remains bullish despite cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding the economic outlook, with the focus shifting to the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The current strategy for trading gold is to maintain a bullish outlook without chasing prices, focusing on buying on dips rather than predicting market tops [2] - After reaching a peak of $3,791, gold experienced a significant pullback to a low of $3,752, indicating a potential high-level consolidation rather than a trend reversal [2] - Key support levels are identified at $3,715, and as long as this level holds, a strong shift in trend is unlikely [2][4] Group 3: Silver Market Overview - Spot silver rose to $44.4 before undergoing a correction, with current lows around $44, suggesting a potential buying opportunity on dips [5] - Support for silver is noted at approximately $43.5, with resistance levels identified in the $44.8 to $45 range [5] - Similar to gold, silver trading strategies recommend waiting for price corrections before entering long positions, with a cautionary note regarding potential volatility leading up to the National Day holiday [5]

Group 1 - The dollar index experienced slight downward pressure after a previous rise due to strong economic data and rising U.S. Treasury yields, with market participants focusing on key events such as Fed Chair Powell's speech and the upcoming core PCE index release [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut did not open the door for a broader easing cycle, as internal cautious voices emerged, indicating limited space for further rate cuts due to ongoing concerns about inflation risks and a still accommodative financial environment [3] - The U.S. Treasury market remained stable, with minor yield changes, as the market awaited clearer data signals, with predictions suggesting that the core PCE data may be weaker than previously feared, potentially providing the Fed with more reasons to remain on hold [4] Group 2 - From a technical analysis perspective, the dollar index is at a sensitive point, showing signs of a bearish reversal pattern as it tests a key resistance level, which could lead to a downward adjustment if confirmed [5] - The recent dollar pullback provided a brief respite for other major currencies, such as the British pound, which saw a slight increase; however, the pound's rebound is constrained by significant domestic fiscal challenges and market pessimism regarding upcoming PMI data [7] - The dollar index is likely to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with its next directional choice heavily influenced by the upcoming PCE data and Powell's speech, as the market navigates a tug-of-war between economic data and central bank policy expectations [8]

Group 1: Market Performance - The US stock market indices reached new highs, with the Nasdaq up by 0.23% and the S&P 500 slightly rising [1] - Oracle's stock price increased by 3% following the announcement of co-CEOs, indicating a focus on expanding its cloud computing business [1] - Apple's stock surged nearly 4% due to alleviated tariff concerns and strong demand for its latest iPhone models [3] Group 2: Company Financials - Oracle's stock had a market capitalization of approximately $905.8 billion, with a P/E ratio of 72.81 and a dividend yield of 0.57% [2] - Apple's stock had a market capitalization of around $3.8 trillion, with a P/E ratio of 38.28 and a dividend yield of 0.42% [5] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley upgraded ASML's rating to "overweight," citing multiple growth opportunities leading up to 2027 [7] - Analysts noted that the demand for new products from Apple exceeded expectations, contributing to increased buying pressure and stock price support [3]

Group 1 - The price of gold reached a historical high on September 22, with various gold shops pricing gold jewelry at 1090 yuan per gram, while the lowest price was 1045 yuan per gram [1][5] - The investment gold bar price ranged from 852 to 869 yuan per gram, and silver was priced at 9.98 yuan per gram [1][6] - The spot gold market showed strong performance, closing up by 40.26 dollars, a rise of 1.1%, ending at 3684.40 dollars per ounce [1][2] Group 2 - The market is closely watching the upcoming release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is a key inflation indicator [1][2] - A series of important economic data is expected this week, including the September Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), new home sales, durable goods orders, and the final report of the second quarter GDP [1][2] - Gold prices have surged nearly 40% this year, marking the strongest annual increase since the late 1970s [2] Group 3 - Current domestic gold prices are at 840 yuan per gram, while international gold prices are at 3717 dollars per ounce [3] - The international prices for platinum, palladium, and silver are 1429 dollars per ounce, 1181 dollars per ounce, and 43.63 dollars per ounce, respectively [3] Group 4 - Various gold shops in Hong Kong reported gold prices at 40880 HKD per tael, with all major brands showing an increase [8] Group 5 - The gold recycling price today is 827 yuan per gram, with platinum at 303 yuan per gram, palladium at 249 yuan per gram, and silver at 9.13 yuan per gram [7]

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $42.68, with a recent price of $42.74, reflecting a 0.14% increase, and has seen a high of $42.77 and a low of $42.32 during the day [1] - The international silver market is showing a short-term oscillating trend, with potential upward movement towards $43.2 if the trend continues [4] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $42.40 and $42.20, while resistance levels are at $43.00 and $43.30 [4] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is recruiting price data collectors for a critical inflation indicator, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), due to personnel shortages [3] - The BLS has posted 25 part-time economic assistant positions across major cities, which are essential for gathering price information from local businesses [3] - If these positions are filled quickly, the proportion of estimated prices in the CPI may significantly decrease in the coming months, reducing the error range of current estimates [3]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's financial market has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.16%, a decrease from the previous prediction of 2.19% made just a week earlier [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The financial market anticipates Brazil's economic growth to be 1.85% in 2026 and 1.88% in 2027 [1] Inflation Expectations - The Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which is Brazil's official inflation indicator, remains unchanged at a forecast of 4.85%, ending a streak of 14 consecutive weeks of declining predictions [1]

行情回顾： 国际黄金周三（9月10日）触底反弹维持震荡走势，开盘价3645.53美元/盎司，最高价3657.50美元/盎司，最低 价3618.74美元/盎司，收盘价3644.43美元/盎司。 消息面： 周三公布的美国8月PPI月率录得-0.1%，低于市场预期0.3%，前值位0.7%；美国8月PPI年率录得2.6%，低于市 场预期3.3%，前值为3.1%。 评论称，在8月PPI涨幅低于预期、缓解了市场对通胀压力阻碍货币宽松政策的担忧后，交易员们周三押注，美 联储可能将启动一系列降息，并持续至年底。公布的数据显示，8月PPI同比增长2.6%，低于七月3.1%的同比增 幅，同时亦大幅低于预期。根据与美联储政策利率挂钩的期货合约定价，市场预计美联储将在下周会议上先降 息25个基点，随后在年内继续以同等幅度降息。 美国财经网站investinglive分析师Adam Button表示，明天将公布消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。这是一个强烈 信号，表明数据可能低于预期，美国股指期货已因此上涨。若CPI结果低于预期——尤其是出现如此大幅的低 于预期——那么美联储降息50个基点的可能性将更高。剔除食品和能源后的生产者价格指数（ ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The crude oil market's bearish trend continues, and the strategy of combining crude oil shorts with out - of - the - money call options can be maintained [2]. - Precious metals may remain strong before the Fed meeting, but volatility increases after consecutive rises [3]. - The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level with a probability of moving higher [4]. - The market conditions of various industries are complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each commodity, and corresponding investment strategies are recommended [2 - 48]. Summary by Category Metals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose and then fell. Even in an optimistic scenario, the market supply - demand surplus will increase marginally, and the bearish trend persists. The strategy of combining shorts with out - of - the money call options can be continued [2]. - **Precious Metals**: U.S. non - farm employment data was revised down, and the Middle East geopolitical situation is tense. Precious metals may be strong before the Fed meeting, with increased volatility [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The market is waiting for U.S. inflation indicators. The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level with a chance of moving up [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Downstream开工率 increased seasonally, and it is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [5]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, inventory is rising, and the supply is in surplus. The price is expected to find support around 2,830 yuan [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the movement of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum may narrow further [7]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals show increased supply and weak demand. The short - selling strategy on the profit margin of the futures market remains, and the domestic market may lead the overseas market down [8]. - **Lead**: The production of recycled lead decreased significantly, and the supply pressure eased, but the terminal consumption is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,300 yuan [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices declined. The market is cautious about domestic tin consumption. A small number of low - position long positions can be held based on the MA60 line [10]. Energy - related - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The decrease in warehouse receipts provides some support for the prices of LU and FU, and the futures prices rose slightly at night [20]. - **Asphalt**: The shipment volume slowed down in early September, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The price is pressured by oil prices in the short term but has support at the bottom [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market is stable due to strong procurement demand. The domestic market has a strong bottom support, but the futures market's upside is limited [22]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price was slightly adjusted down. The market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by the weakening sentiment, the price decreased slightly. In September, supply is expected to increase and demand to decrease. It is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **PX & PTA**: They opened low and then oscillated upwards. PX has limited production growth space, and PTA's price is driven by raw materials. The demand is improving [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It oscillated at a low level at night. The supply and demand are mixed [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Resin**: Short - fiber's supply and demand are stable, and it can be considered for long - position allocation. Bottle - grade resin has a long - term over - capacity problem [31]. Building Materials - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: Night - trading steel prices declined. Supply and demand are weak, and the market may oscillate in the short term [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price oscillated weakly. The supply is stable, and the demand may recover. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices weakened during the day. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand may recover. The prices are affected by policy expectations and have high volatility [15][16]. - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The prices oscillated during the day. The demand for iron - making may recover, and the supply of silicon - based alloys is increasing. Attention should be paid to the continuity of relevant policies [17][18]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean good - quality rate decreased slightly. The global demand for soybean oil may drive up soybean crushing. The domestic supply may have a gap in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the medium - long term [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: U.S. soybean oil prices fell. Domestic soybean oil supply exceeds demand, and palm oil import losses are narrowing. They can be considered for low - price buying in the long term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed - related products is uncertain, and the prices may rise [37]. - **Corn**: The futures price continued to fall at night. The new - season corn price has certain expectations, but the futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: U.S. cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic new - cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: U.S. sugar prices oscillated. Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the domestic sugar market is in good condition. The price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price dropped significantly. The supply is expected to be stable, and the futures price may continue to decline [44]. - **Wood**: The price oscillated. The supply is low, and the demand is not in the peak season. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price declined. The port inventory is relatively high, and the supply is loose. It is advisable to wait and see [46]. Livestock and Poultry - **Pigs**: The spot and futures prices of pigs declined. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year, and it is advisable to wait and see [40]. - **Eggs**: The futures price rebounded due to the departure of short - selling funds. The spot price is rising seasonally. The far - month contracts can be considered for long - position layout [41]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market was weak, and the futures prices fell. The market style may continue to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The prices of treasury bond futures fell across the board. The yield curve may become steeper [48]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot price is expected to decline further, and the 10 - contract may fall below the low of the first half of the year. The far - month contracts are relatively strong but may also be under pressure [19].

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a broad decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.20% to 45,544.88 points, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.15% to 21,455.55 points, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.64% to 6,460.26 points [1][2]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector in the US saw a significant drop, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeting over 3%. Major companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC ADR, AMD, and Oracle all experienced declines exceeding 3%, while Micron Technology, Applied Materials, ASML ADR, and Intel fell over 2% [3][4]. - Nvidia's market value decreased by $145.6 billion (approximately 1038.2 billion RMB) in one night, with its stock price dropping by 3.3% [4]. AI Chip Companies - Marvell Technology, a US AI custom chip giant, faced severe selling pressure, with its stock price plunging nearly 19% during intraday trading and closing down 18.6% at $62.87, marking a three-month low. The company's market capitalization shrank to $54.2 billion (approximately 38.64 billion RMB) [4]. Chinese Tech Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.5%, with Alibaba surging 12.9%, marking its largest increase since March 2023. The company has reportedly invested over 100 billion RMB in AI infrastructure and product development over the past four quarters [7][8]. - Other Chinese tech stocks like Baidu and JD.com also saw gains, while Netease and Pinduoduo experienced declines [8]. Gold and Commodities - Gold prices increased due to heightened risk aversion, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.2% to $3,516.1 per ounce, accumulating a weekly increase of 2.86% and a monthly rise of 5.2% [10][11]. - Silver futures also saw a rise of 2.64%, closing at $40.75 per ounce, with similar weekly and monthly gains [11]. Economic Indicators - The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with the core PCE price index accelerating to a 2.9% growth. Consumer confidence has declined, and the trade deficit has widened, leading to a projected slowdown in Q3 GDP growth to 2.2% [13]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have risen, with probabilities exceeding 80% [14].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the release of the US PCE data for July, which came in at 2.9%, matching market expectations and marking the highest level since February 2025, indicating a stable inflation outlook for the Federal Reserve [2] - The market reaction to the PCE data was muted, as it did not deviate from expectations, thus avoiding significant volatility in equities, gold, and cryptocurrencies [2] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for August is highlighted as a critical indicator for potential interest rate cuts, with the PCE serving as a background context [2] Group 2 - The July non-farm payroll data showed a weak increase of only 73,000 jobs, with downward revisions for the previous two months, which could justify a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - If the August non-farm payroll data falls significantly below 73,000, market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September may resurface [3] - Conversely, if the data exceeds 73,000, particularly if it surpasses 150,000, the Federal Reserve may reconsider its stance, especially in light of the upcoming CPI data [2][3] Group 3 - A report titled "Global Market Strategy: September Outlook" raises critical questions regarding the future of A-shares post "9·3" market, potential risks for US equities, and the outlook for gold prices [4] - The report includes a unique analysis predicting the behavior of the Chinese stock market and offers a comprehensive investment strategy manual for navigating A-share market dynamics [4] - It also discusses the implications of a mysterious figure incorporating the Renminbi into a control system, suggesting a bullish outlook for the currency in the coming months [4] Group 4 - The report anticipates significant movements in gold and crude oil markets, providing trading strategies for the upcoming week and forecasts for A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, gold, crude oil, and Renminbi [5] - Wall Street has identified ten Chinese stocks as favorable investments while advising against seven others, indicating a selective approach to stock recommendations [6]