行情回顾： 国际黄金周三（9月10日）触底反弹维持震荡走势，开盘价3645.53美元/盎司，最高价3657.50美元/盎司，最低 价3618.74美元/盎司，收盘价3644.43美元/盎司。 消息面： 周三公布的美国8月PPI月率录得-0.1%，低于市场预期0.3%，前值位0.7%；美国8月PPI年率录得2.6%，低于市 场预期3.3%，前值为3.1%。 评论称，在8月PPI涨幅低于预期、缓解了市场对通胀压力阻碍货币宽松政策的担忧后，交易员们周三押注，美 联储可能将启动一系列降息，并持续至年底。公布的数据显示，8月PPI同比增长2.6%，低于七月3.1%的同比增 幅，同时亦大幅低于预期。根据与美联储政策利率挂钩的期货合约定价，市场预计美联储将在下周会议上先降 息25个基点，随后在年内继续以同等幅度降息。 美国财经网站investinglive分析师Adam Button表示，明天将公布消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。这是一个强烈 信号，表明数据可能低于预期，美国股指期货已因此上涨。若CPI结果低于预期——尤其是出现如此大幅的低 于预期——那么美联储降息50个基点的可能性将更高。剔除食品和能源后的生产者价格指数（ ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The crude oil market's bearish trend continues, and the strategy of combining crude oil shorts with out - of - the - money call options can be maintained [2]. - Precious metals may remain strong before the Fed meeting, but volatility increases after consecutive rises [3]. - The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level with a probability of moving higher [4]. - The market conditions of various industries are complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each commodity, and corresponding investment strategies are recommended [2 - 48]. Summary by Category Metals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose and then fell. Even in an optimistic scenario, the market supply - demand surplus will increase marginally, and the bearish trend persists. The strategy of combining shorts with out - of - the money call options can be continued [2]. - **Precious Metals**: U.S. non - farm employment data was revised down, and the Middle East geopolitical situation is tense. Precious metals may be strong before the Fed meeting, with increased volatility [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. The market is waiting for U.S. inflation indicators. The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level with a chance of moving up [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. Downstream开工率 increased seasonally, and it is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [5]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, inventory is rising, and the supply is in surplus. The price is expected to find support around 2,830 yuan [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the movement of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum may narrow further [7]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals show increased supply and weak demand. The short - selling strategy on the profit margin of the futures market remains, and the domestic market may lead the overseas market down [8]. - **Lead**: The production of recycled lead decreased significantly, and the supply pressure eased, but the terminal consumption is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 17,300 yuan [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices declined. The market is cautious about domestic tin consumption. A small number of low - position long positions can be held based on the MA60 line [10]. Energy - related - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The decrease in warehouse receipts provides some support for the prices of LU and FU, and the futures prices rose slightly at night [20]. - **Asphalt**: The shipment volume slowed down in early September, but the impact is expected to be short - term. The price is pressured by oil prices in the short term but has support at the bottom [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market is stable due to strong procurement demand. The domestic market has a strong bottom support, but the futures market's upside is limited [22]. Chemicals - **Polysilicon**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price was slightly adjusted down. The market sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by the weakening sentiment, the price decreased slightly. In September, supply is expected to increase and demand to decrease. It is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **PX & PTA**: They opened low and then oscillated upwards. PX has limited production growth space, and PTA's price is driven by raw materials. The demand is improving [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It oscillated at a low level at night. The supply and demand are mixed [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Resin**: Short - fiber's supply and demand are stable, and it can be considered for long - position allocation. Bottle - grade resin has a long - term over - capacity problem [31]. Building Materials - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: Night - trading steel prices declined. Supply and demand are weak, and the market may oscillate in the short term [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price oscillated weakly. The supply is stable, and the demand may recover. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices weakened during the day. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand may recover. The prices are affected by policy expectations and have high volatility [15][16]. - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The prices oscillated during the day. The demand for iron - making may recover, and the supply of silicon - based alloys is increasing. Attention should be paid to the continuity of relevant policies [17][18]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean good - quality rate decreased slightly. The global demand for soybean oil may drive up soybean crushing. The domestic supply may have a gap in the first quarter of next year. The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the medium - long term [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: U.S. soybean oil prices fell. Domestic soybean oil supply exceeds demand, and palm oil import losses are narrowing. They can be considered for low - price buying in the long term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The import of rapeseed - related products is uncertain, and the prices may rise [37]. - **Corn**: The futures price continued to fall at night. The new - season corn price has certain expectations, but the futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: U.S. cotton prices rose slightly. The domestic new - cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: U.S. sugar prices oscillated. Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the domestic sugar market is in good condition. The price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apples**: The futures price dropped significantly. The supply is expected to be stable, and the futures price may continue to decline [44]. - **Wood**: The price oscillated. The supply is low, and the demand is not in the peak season. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The futures price declined. The port inventory is relatively high, and the supply is loose. It is advisable to wait and see [46]. Livestock and Poultry - **Pigs**: The spot and futures prices of pigs declined. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year, and it is advisable to wait and see [40]. - **Eggs**: The futures price rebounded due to the departure of short - selling funds. The spot price is rising seasonally. The far - month contracts can be considered for long - position layout [41]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market was weak, and the futures prices fell. The market style may continue to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The prices of treasury bond futures fell across the board. The yield curve may become steeper [48]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot price is expected to decline further, and the 10 - contract may fall below the low of the first half of the year. The far - month contracts are relatively strong but may also be under pressure [19].

Market Overview - US stock market experienced a broad decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 0.20% to 45,544.88 points, the Nasdaq Composite down 1.15% to 21,455.55 points, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.64% to 6,460.26 points [1][2]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector in the US saw a significant drop, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeting over 3%. Major companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC ADR, AMD, and Oracle all experienced declines exceeding 3%, while Micron Technology, Applied Materials, ASML ADR, and Intel fell over 2% [3][4]. - Nvidia's market value decreased by $145.6 billion (approximately 1038.2 billion RMB) in one night, with its stock price dropping by 3.3% [4]. AI Chip Companies - Marvell Technology, a US AI custom chip giant, faced severe selling pressure, with its stock price plunging nearly 19% during intraday trading and closing down 18.6% at $62.87, marking a three-month low. The company's market capitalization shrank to $54.2 billion (approximately 38.64 billion RMB) [4]. Chinese Tech Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.5%, with Alibaba surging 12.9%, marking its largest increase since March 2023. The company has reportedly invested over 100 billion RMB in AI infrastructure and product development over the past four quarters [7][8]. - Other Chinese tech stocks like Baidu and JD.com also saw gains, while Netease and Pinduoduo experienced declines [8]. Gold and Commodities - Gold prices increased due to heightened risk aversion, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.2% to $3,516.1 per ounce, accumulating a weekly increase of 2.86% and a monthly rise of 5.2% [10][11]. - Silver futures also saw a rise of 2.64%, closing at $40.75 per ounce, with similar weekly and monthly gains [11]. Economic Indicators - The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with the core PCE price index accelerating to a 2.9% growth. Consumer confidence has declined, and the trade deficit has widened, leading to a projected slowdown in Q3 GDP growth to 2.2% [13]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have risen, with probabilities exceeding 80% [14].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the release of the US PCE data for July, which came in at 2.9%, matching market expectations and marking the highest level since February 2025, indicating a stable inflation outlook for the Federal Reserve [2] - The market reaction to the PCE data was muted, as it did not deviate from expectations, thus avoiding significant volatility in equities, gold, and cryptocurrencies [2] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for August is highlighted as a critical indicator for potential interest rate cuts, with the PCE serving as a background context [2] Group 2 - The July non-farm payroll data showed a weak increase of only 73,000 jobs, with downward revisions for the previous two months, which could justify a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - If the August non-farm payroll data falls significantly below 73,000, market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September may resurface [3] - Conversely, if the data exceeds 73,000, particularly if it surpasses 150,000, the Federal Reserve may reconsider its stance, especially in light of the upcoming CPI data [2][3] Group 3 - A report titled "Global Market Strategy: September Outlook" raises critical questions regarding the future of A-shares post "9·3" market, potential risks for US equities, and the outlook for gold prices [4] - The report includes a unique analysis predicting the behavior of the Chinese stock market and offers a comprehensive investment strategy manual for navigating A-share market dynamics [4] - It also discusses the implications of a mysterious figure incorporating the Renminbi into a control system, suggesting a bullish outlook for the currency in the coming months [4] Group 4 - The report anticipates significant movements in gold and crude oil markets, providing trading strategies for the upcoming week and forecasts for A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, gold, crude oil, and Renminbi [5] - Wall Street has identified ten Chinese stocks as favorable investments while advising against seven others, indicating a selective approach to stock recommendations [6]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a rebound on Friday (August 22) after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated an openness to interest rate cuts, leading to increased expectations for a September rate cut [1] - For the week, the Dow Jones increased by 1.53%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.26%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.58% [1] Oil Market - International oil prices saw a significant increase due to the lack of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, which suggests that US sanctions on the Russian oil industry will continue [4] - US crude oil inventories showed a substantial decrease, contributing to oil prices rising for the first time in three weeks, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil up by 1.37% and Brent crude up by 2.85% [4] Gold Market - International gold prices rose by over 1% as some investors bought on dips following a period of decline, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar [5] Economic Indicators - The market is closely watching the US July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve [6] - Economists expect the core PCE index to remain unchanged at a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, with a slight year-on-year rebound to 2.9% [8] - Analysts believe that the upcoming inflation data may not hinder the Fed's rate cut in September, but higher-than-expected inflation could dampen rate cut expectations beyond September [9] Earnings Reports - Several technology companies are set to release their latest earnings reports this week, which will be closely monitored by the market [10]

【资讯导读】 ·特朗普提议与俄罗斯合作开发稀土矿产 ·加拿大央行会议纪要显示，鉴于贸易不确定性及经济韧性，决定维持现有货币政策不变。一些官员认 为目前降息幅度已足够应对关税对消费者价格带来的温和影响。 ·美国财长贝森特建议美联储立即启动降息 ·加拿大央行维持政策不变 ·日本央行部分理事提议放弃使用"潜在通胀"指标 【市场资讯】 ·消息人士透露，特朗普计划在俄美峰会期间向普京提出共同开发阿拉斯加稀土资源，并解除对俄飞机 零部件出口禁令。英国政府认为此激励措施"可被欧洲接受"。若会晤不顺，美国财长贝森特称可能加大 制裁或征收次级关税。 ·美国能源部宣布采取行动保障关键矿产和材料供应链的安全，并拨款10亿美元用于矿产安全项目。 ·美国财长贝森特强烈建议美联储立即启动新一轮降息周期，主张利率应比当前低150至175个基点。他 预计9月可能降息50个基点，并指出有10到11位候选人供考虑作为美联储主席人选。 ·美国联邦道德办公室警告，财长贝森特未遵守剥离金融资产的协议。8月11日，该办公室致信参议院财 政委员会主席Michael D. Crapo，指出贝森特在执行或修改协议上有违规行为。 ·根据MBA数据，截至8月8日 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a partial bullish or bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ななな - Alumina: なな女 - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: な☆☆ Core Views - The market is affected by factors such as Sino - US tariff policies, US inflation indicators, and Fed interest - rate expectations. Different metals show various price trends and investment opportunities due to their unique supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiments [2][3][4] - Each metal has its own price characteristics, resistance levels, and trading strategies, which are determined by factors like inventory, production capacity, and downstream demand [3][7][8] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper fluctuated and closed positive. Spot copper was reported at 79,150 yuan, and the premium of Shanghai flat - water copper widened to 170 yuan. Hold previous high - level short positions [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The spot discount in East China narrowed by 20 yuan to 30 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 23,000 tons compared to Thursday. Consumption remained weak. The peak of aluminum ingot social inventory may occur in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [3] - Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai spot price remained unchanged at 19,800 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply was tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry was poor, showing some resilience relative to aluminum prices [3] - The operating capacity of alumina was at a historical high, the total industry inventory increased, and the market was in an oversupply state. Spot transaction prices showed signs of loosening, and spot indices in many places were slightly adjusted downward [3] Zinc - Sino - US tariff extension led to a warm macro - sentiment, and short - sellers reduced their positions, weakening the resistance to the rebound of Shanghai zinc. Downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient, and some traders lowered premiums to sell. There is a phased rebound space for Shanghai zinc, and wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded with active market trading. As the domestic anti - involution theme ended, nickel with a relatively poor fundamental situation will return to its fundamentals. Enter short positions actively as Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [7] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated during the session and closed down at the end, with increased positions in the market. Spot tin was reported at 270,600 yuan, with a real - time premium of 700 yuan to the delivery - month contract. Wait and see or choose to go short - term long at low prices [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened high and went low with active market trading. The total market inventory slightly decreased to 142,000 tons. Pay attention to risk management due to abnormal price fluctuations [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon increased positions and closed down at 8,890 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate with support at the previous low of 8,300 yuan/ton. Pay attention to whether large factories in Xinjiang will resume production on a large scale [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon fluctuated and slightly closed up. The production schedule in August was significantly increased, and inventory would still restrict the increase of its spot price. It is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and do not chase high at the upper limit [11]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US has increased, causing the US dollar to weaken in the short term. The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to about 80% [3]. - The US second - quarter economic growth rate was higher than expected, but business investment growth slowed. The inflation indicator PCE showed a slight rebound [1]. - The US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time due to high economic uncertainty, a stable labor market, and high inflation [2]. - The US non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, and the previous two months' data were significantly revised down, leading to Trump's decision to replace the BLS局长 [2]. Key Data - The US second - quarter GDP grew 3% quarter - on - quarter, better than the expected 2.4% [1]. - In June, the US PCE annual increase rose from 2.3% to 2.6%, and the core PCE index rose 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7% [1]. - In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The June figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, and the May figure was revised down by 125,000 [2]. - After the data release, the Dow Jones Industrial Average once fell more than 400 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 2% [3]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has risen to about 80% [3]. Policy and Events - Trump signed an executive order to keep the minimum reciprocal tariff rate at 10% and increased the tariff on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%, while extending the current tariff rate on Mexican goods for 90 days [1]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.5% unchanged [2]. - Trump ordered the replacement of the BLS局长 due to poor non - farm payrolls data [2]. US Dollar Index - The US dollar index rebounded in July and reached a two - month high of 100.257 last Friday but weakened short - term after the non - farm data, falling to 99 for consolidation. The resistance level is at 101 [3].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, surpassing the market expectation of 2.4%[1] - The PCE price index rose from 2.3% to 2.6% year-on-year in June, with core PCE increasing to 2.8%[1] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000[2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive hold[2] - Following the employment report, the probability of a rate cut in September surged to approximately 80%[3] - The Fed's hawkish stance previously led to a six-day rise in the U.S. dollar index, which reached a high of 100.257[3] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 400 points after the employment data release, while the Nasdaq dropped over 2%[3] - The U.S. dollar index experienced short-term weakness, retreating to around 99 after the non-farm payroll data[3]

Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 closed at $3342.3 per ounce, up $14.4, with a gain of 0.43% [2] - The increase in gold prices was supported by safe-haven demand, despite a slight decline during trading hours due to profit-taking and a significant drop in silver prices [2] - Market analysts attribute the weakness in gold prices and strong selling pressure on silver to the recent sharp decline in copper prices, which fell over 18% due to new tariffs announced by President Trump [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.6% year-on-year in June, slightly above expectations, while the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, meeting expectations [3] - Despite the record high gold prices, retail investors have returned to the market, boosting global gold demand, with total demand rising to 1249 tons in Q2 2024, a 3% increase from the same period in 2023 [3][4] - The World Gold Council attributed the demand growth to strong investment interest in gold ETFs, coins, and bars, although purchases by central banks and jewelers slowed in Q2 due to high gold prices [4]