Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes reveal deepening internal divisions regarding the interest rate path, with a surprising two members supporting a rate cut, introducing new uncertainty into recent monetary policy discussions [1][5]. Economic Perspectives - Officials exhibit significant disagreement on key economic issues, particularly inflation, with some advocating for more time to observe trade policy impacts, while others argue that waiting for clear signals is neither feasible nor appropriate [3][5]. - There are varying opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing the transmission may be slower than expected, while others warn of rising pressures in service prices [3]. - The assessment of the U.S. labor market shows diverse viewpoints; despite a historically low unemployment rate, some officials note signs of slowing wage growth and a decrease in new job creation, indicating potential cooling in labor demand [3][5]. Economic Growth Outlook - Several participants expect the U.S. economic growth to remain sluggish in the second half of the year, with slowing real income growth potentially suppressing household consumption [3][5]. Employment Data Impact - The discussions occurred prior to the release of the July employment report, which significantly revised down the previous two months' employment data, potentially heightening concerns among decision-makers about economic slowdown [5]. - Analysts suggest that the meeting minutes, while not revealing much new information, reinforce key signals: the July meeting's tone was more cautious than market expectations, and future decisions will increasingly rely on economic data performance [5]. Policy Flexibility - Decision-makers emphasize the importance of maintaining policy flexibility, agreeing that adjustments should be made based on changes in economic data [7]. - The ongoing global economic uncertainty will continue to draw market attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with the divisions among decision-makers reflecting the complexity of the current U.S. economic environment [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is short - term shock [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The zinc market shows a short - term shock trend, with specific price, volume, inventory and other data changes reflecting the current market situation [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Zinc Market Data - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,480 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,811.5 dollars/ton, down 1.28% [1] - The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 78,030 lots, a decrease of 315; the trading volume of LME zinc was 6,970 lots, a decrease of 1,594 [1] - The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 80,798 lots, a decrease of 5,188; the open interest of LME zinc was 193,713 lots, a decrease of 588 [1] - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 5; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 1.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.26 [1] - The SHFE zinc futures inventory was 17,097 tons, an increase of 905; the LME zinc inventory was 77,450 tons, a decrease of 1,025 [1] News - About 42% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in October, and another one - third expect it to take action in January next year due to inflation control needs and the spill - over effect on US long - term bonds [1] - The throughput of the Port of Los Angeles in July reached a record high, with more than 1 million TEUs, as traders rushed to ship goods before Trump's tariffs took effect [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm payroll data from the U.S. Labor Department showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 new jobs added, falling short of the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, which aligns with market forecasts. This data has led to volatility in financial markets, with gold prices rising and the dollar declining, as it raises concerns about the potential for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The July non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 is considerably lower than the expected 110,000, indicating a slowdown in job growth, although it does not suggest a drastic decline [2][3]. - The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, remaining within the narrow range of 4.0%-4.2% that has persisted since May 2024, and is still below the Federal Reserve's year-end forecast of 4.5% [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Financial markets reacted negatively to the employment data, with gold prices rising and the dollar experiencing a sharp decline, as the data may increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve considering rate cuts [2][4]. - The disappointing employment figures have disrupted the previously optimistic market narrative, leading to renewed uncertainty regarding future economic conditions and monetary policy direction [4]. Group 3: Political Context - The underwhelming employment data provides an opportunity for former President Trump to criticize Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, potentially reigniting discussions about Powell's position [4]. - The current economic indicators do not suggest an imminent recession, but there remains significant uncertainty about the economic outlook in the coming months [4].

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：我们将确保关税问题不会变成通胀问题。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly suggests that a weak labor market may lead to interest rate cuts, but inflation concerns could steer policy in a different direction [1] Group 1 - The actual labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates [1] - Inflation remains a significant issue that could counterbalance the potential for rate cuts, indicating a complex policy environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The labor market has essentially reached its targets, allowing the Federal Reserve to shift its focus primarily to inflation issues [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation is reinforced by the current state of the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's sudden support for a rate cut in July has sparked speculation about his potential candidacy for the position of "shadow chairman" of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Waller is seen as a dark horse candidate for the Federal Reserve chair position next year, as noted by Nick Timiraos, who is referred to as the "voice of the Federal Reserve" [1] - Waller's assertion that "inflation is not the most pressing concern at the moment" is viewed as a strategic move, especially as tariff impacts become more apparent [1] - Unlike other potential candidates, Waller has not consistently maintained hawkish rhetoric over the past decade, which aligns well with a president who favors dovish policies [1] Group 2 - Waller does not carry the burden of "two misjudgments on inflation" that the current chair does, which may benefit his candidacy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, emphasized the importance of not allowing tariff issues to escalate into inflation problems [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Implications - Macklem highlighted that tariffs should not be allowed to contribute to inflationary pressures, indicating a proactive stance on managing economic stability [1] Policy Recommendations - The Bank of Canada is focused on ensuring that trade policies do not adversely affect inflation, suggesting a need for careful monitoring of tariff impacts on the economy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that while the financial situation of American consumers remains stable, their outlook on the future economy is cautious, reflecting a mix of stability and concern [1][3][7] - Approximately 73% of American adults reported their financial situation as "fair" or "comfortable," a figure that remains consistent with 2023 but slightly lower than the 78% recorded in 2021, indicating a stable yet not historically high perception of financial health [1][3] - The percentage of adults able to cover an unexpected expense of $400 remains stable at 63%, similar to previous years, highlighting ongoing economic vulnerability despite a relatively high percentage [1][3] Group 2 - Only 29% of respondents believe the economic situation in 2024 will be "good" or "excellent," a slight increase from 2023 but significantly lower than the 50% recorded in 2019, suggesting persistent long-term economic concerns among consumers [3][7] - The proportion of adults who feel their financial situation has worsened compared to the previous year is 29%, down from a peak of 35% in 2022, yet still above pre-pandemic levels, indicating ongoing economic pressure [3][7] - Inflation remains a significant challenge for consumers, particularly with rising prices for food and everyday goods, although the percentage of those affected has decreased compared to 2023, suggesting improved adaptability among consumers [7] Group 3 - Housing affordability continues to be a pressing issue, with median rent increasing by approximately 10% annually since 2022, leading to greater financial strain on many households [7] - The survey reflects complex consumer emotions in the face of an uncertain economic environment, with stable financial conditions juxtaposed against low confidence in future economic prospects [7] - High prices and housing pressures are identified as the most prominent challenges in the current economy, emphasizing the need for policymakers to address these issues while maintaining economic growth [7]

美联储将于当地时间5月7日（北京时间5月8日2:00）发布5月的利率决议。目前市场普遍预期美联储将按兵不动。 市场普遍预计今晚美联储将维持利率不变。CME美联储观察的数据显示，此次决议降息的概率仅为1%，维持当前利率不变的概率为99%。 CME美联储观察利率 即使当天维持利率不变，市场仍然希望能从会议声明以及新闻发布会上获得更多信息，特别是关税影响以及未来降息路径的指引上。 美联储主席鲍威尔将于决议公布30分钟后举行新闻发布会，预计关税和通胀问题将是他回答的重点，同时投资者也在期望他如何解释不急于调整利率的主要 原因。 市场上，美股三大股指小幅高开，其中，道指涨0.36%，纳指涨0.06%，标普500指数涨0.15%。 宏观数据坚挺美联储难降息 预计美联储在会后声明中将对经济状况描述进行调整。由于第一季度GDP受进口驱动出现萎缩，委员会将无法重申整体经济活动"继续稳步扩张"。摩根大通 预计，美联储将下调对经济活动的评估——表明经济活动已"放缓"，而非"继续以稳健的速度扩张"。 但目前美国各项经济数据尚属坚挺，除了一季度GDP出现萎缩外，3月通胀数据有所缓和，4月失业率保持稳定。数据显示，美联储最爱的通胀指标降 ...