Market Commentary - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with officials subsequently commenting on the decision [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan emphasized the necessity of significant rate cuts in the coming months to protect the labor market, citing that current rates are too high [2] - Milan's speech marked his first policy address since being appointed by Trump, where he discussed the decline of the neutral interest rate due to factors like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax policies [2] - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Harmack expressed ongoing concerns about inflation, warning that officials should remain vigilant during rate cuts to prevent economic overheating [2] - Harmack noted that inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for over four years, and it may take several more years to return to the target level [2] Stock Market Activity - The Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded a net inflow of HKD 12.7 billion on Monday, with the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800.HK) seeing the highest net inflow of HKD 2.86 billion [2] - Alibaba (09988.HK) followed closely with significant net inflows, while Meituan (03690.HK) experienced the largest net outflow, amounting to HKD 385 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job growth has significantly slowed down since the beginning of the year, as indicated by the August non-farm employment report, which shows a clear decline in new job additions [1][5]. Group 1: Employment Data - In August, U.S. employers added 22,000 jobs, with the private sector contributing 38,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [5]. - The job growth data for June was revised downwards, showing a decrease of 13,000 jobs, while July's data was revised upwards from 73,000 to 79,000 jobs [5]. - Over the past three months, the private sector averaged 29,000 new jobs per month, marking the lowest increase since the pandemic began [6]. - The average number of new jobs in the private sector over the past six months has slowed to 67,000 [6]. - The number of permanent job losses slightly increased in August, but the rate has remained stable this year, at just above 1.1% of the labor force [9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in the upcoming meeting, complicating discussions about future rate cuts [2]. - Fed Chair Powell indicated that if labor market data shows a slowdown, the Fed will proceed with planned rate cuts, reflecting a shift in the balance of risks [2][4]. - The comprehensive weekly wage index rose by 4.4% year-on-year in August, marking a new low for this cycle, with a three-month annualized growth rate declining from 3.2% to 2.4% [11]. - The unemployment rate, calculated without rounding, increased from 4.248% in July to 4.324% in August, with Fed officials previously predicting it would rise to 4.5% in the fourth quarter [14].

Core Points - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on August 25, citing alleged mortgage fraud, leading Cook to file a lawsuit against Trump claiming he lacked the authority to terminate her [1][4] - The lawsuit alleges that Trump's actions violated Cook's due process rights under the U.S. Constitution, as she was not notified or given a hearing prior to her dismissal [1][4] Group 1 - Lisa Cook became the first Black woman member of the Federal Reserve Board in 2022 and was nominated by former President Biden to serve until 2038 [4] - Since 2025, Cook has expressed concerns about U.S. inflation, suggesting that tariffs could exacerbate inflationary pressures [4] - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve has been ongoing, as he has repeatedly called for interest rate cuts and even threatened to "fire" Fed Chair Powell [4] Group 2 - This incident marks the first time in over a century that a president has dismissed a Federal Reserve governor, indicating a significant escalation in Trump's conflict with the Federal Reserve [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes reveal deepening internal divisions regarding the interest rate path, with a surprising two members supporting a rate cut, introducing new uncertainty into recent monetary policy discussions [1][5]. Economic Perspectives - Officials exhibit significant disagreement on key economic issues, particularly inflation, with some advocating for more time to observe trade policy impacts, while others argue that waiting for clear signals is neither feasible nor appropriate [3][5]. - There are varying opinions on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing the transmission may be slower than expected, while others warn of rising pressures in service prices [3]. - The assessment of the U.S. labor market shows diverse viewpoints; despite a historically low unemployment rate, some officials note signs of slowing wage growth and a decrease in new job creation, indicating potential cooling in labor demand [3][5]. Economic Growth Outlook - Several participants expect the U.S. economic growth to remain sluggish in the second half of the year, with slowing real income growth potentially suppressing household consumption [3][5]. Employment Data Impact - The discussions occurred prior to the release of the July employment report, which significantly revised down the previous two months' employment data, potentially heightening concerns among decision-makers about economic slowdown [5]. - Analysts suggest that the meeting minutes, while not revealing much new information, reinforce key signals: the July meeting's tone was more cautious than market expectations, and future decisions will increasingly rely on economic data performance [5]. Policy Flexibility - Decision-makers emphasize the importance of maintaining policy flexibility, agreeing that adjustments should be made based on changes in economic data [7]. - The ongoing global economic uncertainty will continue to draw market attention to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with the divisions among decision-makers reflecting the complexity of the current U.S. economic environment [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is short - term shock [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The zinc market shows a short - term shock trend, with specific price, volume, inventory and other data changes reflecting the current market situation [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Zinc Market Data - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,480 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,811.5 dollars/ton, down 1.28% [1] - The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 78,030 lots, a decrease of 315; the trading volume of LME zinc was 6,970 lots, a decrease of 1,594 [1] - The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 80,798 lots, a decrease of 5,188; the open interest of LME zinc was 193,713 lots, a decrease of 588 [1] - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 5; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 1.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.26 [1] - The SHFE zinc futures inventory was 17,097 tons, an increase of 905; the LME zinc inventory was 77,450 tons, a decrease of 1,025 [1] News - About 42% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in October, and another one - third expect it to take action in January next year due to inflation control needs and the spill - over effect on US long - term bonds [1] - The throughput of the Port of Los Angeles in July reached a record high, with more than 1 million TEUs, as traders rushed to ship goods before Trump's tariffs took effect [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm payroll data from the U.S. Labor Department showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 new jobs added, falling short of the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, which aligns with market forecasts. This data has led to volatility in financial markets, with gold prices rising and the dollar declining, as it raises concerns about the potential for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The July non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 is considerably lower than the expected 110,000, indicating a slowdown in job growth, although it does not suggest a drastic decline [2][3]. - The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%, remaining within the narrow range of 4.0%-4.2% that has persisted since May 2024, and is still below the Federal Reserve's year-end forecast of 4.5% [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Financial markets reacted negatively to the employment data, with gold prices rising and the dollar experiencing a sharp decline, as the data may increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve considering rate cuts [2][4]. - The disappointing employment figures have disrupted the previously optimistic market narrative, leading to renewed uncertainty regarding future economic conditions and monetary policy direction [4]. Group 3: Political Context - The underwhelming employment data provides an opportunity for former President Trump to criticize Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, potentially reigniting discussions about Powell's position [4]. - The current economic indicators do not suggest an imminent recession, but there remains significant uncertainty about the economic outlook in the coming months [4].

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：我们将确保关税问题不会变成通胀问题。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly suggests that a weak labor market may lead to interest rate cuts, but inflation concerns could steer policy in a different direction [1] Group 1 - The actual labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates [1] - Inflation remains a significant issue that could counterbalance the potential for rate cuts, indicating a complex policy environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The labor market has essentially reached its targets, allowing the Federal Reserve to shift its focus primarily to inflation issues [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation is reinforced by the current state of the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's sudden support for a rate cut in July has sparked speculation about his potential candidacy for the position of "shadow chairman" of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - Waller is seen as a dark horse candidate for the Federal Reserve chair position next year, as noted by Nick Timiraos, who is referred to as the "voice of the Federal Reserve" [1] - Waller's assertion that "inflation is not the most pressing concern at the moment" is viewed as a strategic move, especially as tariff impacts become more apparent [1] - Unlike other potential candidates, Waller has not consistently maintained hawkish rhetoric over the past decade, which aligns well with a president who favors dovish policies [1] Group 2 - Waller does not carry the burden of "two misjudgments on inflation" that the current chair does, which may benefit his candidacy [1]