Core Viewpoint - Domestic electrolytic copper continues to accumulate inventory, with expectations for copper prices to rise following improvements in macroeconomic conditions [3]. Group 1: Macro Environment - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, which will continue to suppress copper price increases [3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has increased, primarily due to the weakening of preemptive stocking effects against tariffs and the gradual onset of the off-season [3]. - As of May 23, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stands at 780,000 tons, a decrease of 4.8% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 452,000 tons as of May 16, 2025, an increase of 4.7% [4]. Group 3: Raw Materials - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is 867 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, an increase of 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Smelting - As of April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [6]. - The current spot TC price is -44.30 USD/pound, down 1.3 USD/pound from May 16, 2025, remaining at the lowest level since September 2007 [6]. Group 5: Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, had a cable enterprise operating rate of 82.34% as of May 22, 2025, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points from the previous week [7]. - In April 2025, China's household air conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [7]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of May 23, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 152,000 lots, a decrease of 11% from the previous week [8]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 21,000 lots as of May 20, 2025, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous week [8].

有色金属丨日报 s 投资咨询业务资格 核心观点 证监许可【2011】1772 号 有色金属研究员：薛丽冰 联系电话：020-88523420 从业资格号：F03090983 投资咨询号：Z0016886 二、基本面情况 宏观方面，美国出现股债汇三杀，30 年期美债收益率升破 5%。 供给方面，2025 年 4 月我国铜废料及碎料进口呈现"环比回暖、 同比收缩"的态势，单月进口量 20.47 万吨，环比增长 7.92%，但较去 年同期下降 9.46%。1-4 月累计进口 77.7 万吨，同比微降 0.81%。3-4 月数据显示，美国对华铜废料出口呈现"双降"特征:3 月出口量 225 万吨(环比-28.41%，同比-51.51%)，不在中国市场的份额降至 11.85%， 排名跌落至第二位；4 月虽环比微增 4.98%至 2.36 万吨，但同比仍大 幅下滑 43.98%,份额进一步萎缩至 11.52%，排名被泰国反超滑落至第 三。与此形成鲜明对比的是亚洲供应链的强势崛起。日本 4 月对华出 口量达 3.27 万吨，环比增长 21.02%，同比逆势增长 13.78%，以 15.96% 的占比稳居榜首。另外泰国市场， ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper prices due to expected macroeconomic improvements, despite current trade tensions and inventory fluctuations [3]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 6% [4]. - As of May 16, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 820,000 tons, down 9% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 432,000 tons as of May 9, 2025, a decrease of 0.6% [4]. Raw Materials - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,667 RMB/ton as of May 16, 2025, an increase of 372 RMB/ton from May 9 [5]. - Domestic old scrap copper production in April 2025 was 88,000 tons, down 20% month-on-month and 22.5% year-on-year [5]. Smelting - In April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, a 0.3% increase month-on-month and a 14.3% increase year-on-year [6]. - The TC spot price as of May 16, 2025, was -43.03 USD/pound, reflecting a slight increase but remaining at the lowest level since September 2007 [6]. - From January to March 2025, the cumulative net import of electrolytic copper was 725,000 tons, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year [6]. Demand - The cable industry accounted for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with a cable enterprise operating rate of 83.39% as of May 15, 2025, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [7]. - The air conditioning sector, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw copper tube production of 189,000 tons in April 2025, down 1.8% month-on-month and 7.1% year-on-year [7]. - Copper rod production, which constitutes about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had a brass rod operating rate of 55.0% in April 2025, up 0.6 percentage points but down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Futures - As of May 16, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 180,000 lots, a decrease of 3.9% week-on-week, placing it at the 49th percentile since 1995 [8]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 22,000 lots as of May 13, 2025, down 0.8% week-on-week, at the 58th percentile since 1990 [8].

Core View - High tariffs still pose a threat to copper prices, and the market sentiment will improve after the tariff risk decreases. The tight supply and demand of copper concentrate and scrap copper are still the main factors boosting copper prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of decreased copper demand when the copper market gradually enters the off - season [2][5] Market Overview - On May 15, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 78,900 yuan/ton, reaching a maximum of 79,090 yuan/ton and a minimum of 77,860 yuan/ton, closing at 77,870 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14%. The trading volume for the day was 110,000 lots, with a reduction of 2,000 lots. The open interest was 187,000 lots, a reduction of 7,000 lots [3] Fundamental Situation Macroeconomic Aspect - Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson expects tariffs to slow the economy, and the inflation outlook is unclear [3] Supply Aspect - Mysteel statistics show that the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports in the current week was 897,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons compared to April 25. The TC dropped to 44 dollars/ton [3] Demand Aspect - In April 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 215,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.46% and a year - on - year increase of 4.97%. The domestic electrolytic copper foil production was 100,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4%, including 39,300 tons of electronic circuit copper foil and 60,900 tons of lithium - ion copper foil. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper foil production in May will be 99,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. In April, the domestic copper tube production was 201,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,100 tons with an increase rate of 4.16%, and the comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87.27%, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. It is expected that the copper tube production in May will decrease to about 192,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be 83.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85%. In April, the actual production of domestic recycled copper rods was 203,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11% and a year - on - year increase of 1.81% [4] Inventory Aspect - On May 15, LME copper inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,650 tons, and the SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 10,466 tons to 60,535 tons [4] Future Outlook - After the tariff risk decreases, the market sentiment will improve. The tight supply and demand of copper concentrate and scrap copper are still the main factors boosting copper prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of decreased copper demand when the copper market gradually enters the off - season [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][12] Core Viewpoints - Recent changes in copper processing material output align with terminal industry trends, with high demand in the power electronics, new energy vehicles, and air conditioning sectors driving growth in copper strips, foils, and pipes. Conversely, products related to real estate and construction, such as brass rods and brass strips, have seen stagnant or declining output [3][12] - Looking ahead to 2025, investment in the power sector is expected to maintain high growth, while home appliances will continue to benefit from national subsidies. Although growth in solar energy and new energy vehicles may slow, the drag from the real estate and construction sector is expected to lessen, indicating resilient copper demand overall [3][12] - With limited growth in copper supply, the copper market is expected to remain in a tight balance, keeping copper prices at elevated levels. It is recommended to continue monitoring copper mining stocks that benefit from high copper prices, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Wanguo Resources, Western Mining, and China Nonferrous Mining [3][12] Summary by Sections Copper Processing Material Output - In 2024, China's copper processing material output is projected to increase by 1.9% year-on-year, reaching 21.25 million tons. The output growth is primarily driven by copper foils and pipes, which correspond to high demand in lithium battery foils and air conditioning pipes [4][12] - From 2020 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of copper processing material output is maintained at 3%, with copper foil showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22%, significantly outpacing other categories [4][12] Copper Foil - The growth in copper foil output is mainly attributed to lithium battery copper foils, which saw a 143% increase in 2024 compared to 2021. However, this growth rate is lower than the 257% increase in domestic power battery output during the same period, primarily due to the trend of thinner lithium battery copper foils [7][12] Copper Strip - The production of purple copper strips has surpassed that of brass strips since 2022, with purple copper strips accounting for 45% of the total copper strip output in 2024. This shift is driven by increased demand in the power, electronics, and communications sectors [8][12] Copper Pipe - In 2024, the total output of copper pipes is expected to be 2.36 million tons, with purple copper pipes making up 2.24 million tons. The growth in copper pipe output is largely driven by the demand for purple inner threaded pipes, which have higher heat exchange efficiency due to their larger contact area [10][12]