Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. copper tariff exemption, which has led to a significant decline in global copper prices [1] - It raises concerns about whether Shanghai copper can maintain the critical support level of 77,000 [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The U.S. decision to exempt tariffs on copper has resulted in a collapse of global copper prices [1] - The article highlights the volatility in the copper market due to geopolitical and economic factors [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - There is a focus on the critical support level of 77,000 for Shanghai copper, questioning its ability to hold [1] - The analysis suggests that maintaining this support level is crucial for market stability [1]

Group 1 - COMEX copper prices fell below LME copper prices, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - Refined copper was previously exempt from U.S. tariffs, which may influence trade and pricing strategies [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The Shanghai copper market has an overall fundamental situation where supply growth may slow slightly, demand is currently weak but the outlook is gradually improving. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreased implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line below the 0 - axis with the red bar converging. The recommended operation is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,930 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,772 dollars/ton, down 26 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 171,689 lots, down 2,055 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are 8,781 lots, down 5,333 lots. The LME copper inventory is 127,625 tons, up 225 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory is 73,423 tons, down 11,133 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 19,400 tons, up 2,125 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants are 19,973 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,285 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market 1 copper spot price is 79,285 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 62 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 51.5 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 355 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 51.71 dollars/ton, up 2.63 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.63 dollars/kiloton, up 0.82 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,610 yuan/metal ton, up 290 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 70,310 yuan/metal ton, up 290 yuan. The rough copper southern processing fee is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined copper output is 130.20 million tons, up 4.80 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 0 yuan/ton, down 55,290 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.48%, up 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.94%, down 0.14%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 10.68%, down 0.0073. The at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.38, down 0.0894 [2] Industry News - The IMF raised China's 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% and the 2026 growth rate by 0.2 percentage points to 4.2%. It also raised the 2025 global economic growth forecast to 3%, and slightly raised the US economic growth forecast to 1.9%, and expected the eurozone economic growth to accelerate to 1% - A Fed governor will miss a policy meeting, and the committee is likely to keep interest rates unchanged - The central bank's second - quarter survey shows that over half of entrepreneurs and bankers think the current macro - economy is stable, while residents have a cold expectation of employment in the second quarter and most expect prices and housing prices to remain stable in the next quarter - China and the US will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures. The two sides' economic and trade teams will maintain close communication - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October, and analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work for the second half of the year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the progress of trade negotiations led by Trump remains a key factor influencing copper prices [1] - China's trade data for the first half of the year is being released, and the copper import and export figures may provide new guidance [1]

Core Insights - Copper prices have increased due to positive retail data from China, but there are concerns about whether the ongoing tensions in the Middle East can sustain this support for copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rise in copper prices is attributed to encouraging retail data from China, indicating a potential increase in demand for copper [1] - Market expectations are shifting ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy meeting, which may influence commodity prices [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East are a significant factor to monitor, as they could impact the stability of copper prices in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices are declining, reflecting cautious market sentiment influenced by trade negotiations and the investigation into U.S. copper import tariffs [1] Group 1 - LME copper prices have experienced a downturn, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] - Market sentiment remains cautious as stakeholders await developments in trade negotiations [1] - The ongoing investigation into U.S. copper import tariffs is contributing to uncertainty in copper pricing [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic electrolytic copper continues to accumulate inventory, with expectations for copper prices to rise following improvements in macroeconomic conditions [3]. Group 1: Macro Environment - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, which will continue to suppress copper price increases [3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has increased, primarily due to the weakening of preemptive stocking effects against tariffs and the gradual onset of the off-season [3]. - As of May 23, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stands at 780,000 tons, a decrease of 4.8% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across major exchanges totaled 452,000 tons as of May 16, 2025, an increase of 4.7% [4]. Group 3: Raw Materials - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is 867 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous week [5]. - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, an increase of 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Smelting - As of April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [6]. - The current spot TC price is -44.30 USD/pound, down 1.3 USD/pound from May 16, 2025, remaining at the lowest level since September 2007 [6]. Group 5: Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, had a cable enterprise operating rate of 82.34% as of May 22, 2025, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points from the previous week [7]. - In April 2025, China's household air conditioner production was 22.42 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [7]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of May 23, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 152,000 lots, a decrease of 11% from the previous week [8]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 21,000 lots as of May 20, 2025, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous week [8].

Core View - On May 22, 2025, the surge in US Treasury yields pressured copper prices [2] Market Overview - On May 22, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 78,010 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 78,060 yuan/ton and a low of 77,730 yuan/ton, closing at 77,920 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The trading volume was 61,000 lots, with a reduction of 10,000 lots in positions. The open interest was 153,000 lots, also with a reduction of 10,000 lots [3] Fundamental Situation Macroeconomic Aspect - The US experienced a triple sell - off in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, with the 30 - year US Treasury yield rising above 5% [4] Supply Aspect - In April 2025, China's imports of copper scrap showed a "month - on - month recovery and year - on - year contraction" trend, with a monthly import volume of 204,700 tons, up 7.92% month - on - month but down 9.46% year - on - year. From January to April, the cumulative import was 777,000 tons, down 0.81% year - on - year [4] - US exports of copper scrap to China showed a "double decline" in March - April. In March, the export volume was 225,000 tons (down 28.41% month - on - month and 51.51% year - on - year), and its share in the Chinese market dropped to 11.85%, ranking second. In April, although it increased slightly by 4.98% month - on - month to 23,600 tons, it was still down 43.98% year - on - year, and its share further shrank to 11.52%, dropping to third place [4] - Japan's exports to China reached 32,700 tons in April, up 21.02% month - on - month and 13.78% year - on - year, ranking first with a 15.96% share. Thailand's exports were 25,000 tons, up 26.9% month - on - month and 60.98% year - on - year, becoming the second - largest supplier [4] Demand Aspect - In April 2025, China's exports of copper strips were 10,741 tons, up 1.87% month - on - month and 19.84% year - on - year. From January to April, the cumulative exports were 39,166 tons, up 6.86% year - on - year [4] Inventory Aspect - On May 22, LME copper inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 166,525 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 9,464 tons to 31,754 tons [5] Future Outlook - The front - loading of US import trade demand led to the continuous transfer of LME and SHFE copper to COMEX, which boosted copper prices. However, the negative impact of the consumption off - season on copper prices should be watched out for [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper prices due to expected macroeconomic improvements, despite current trade tensions and inventory fluctuations [3]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 6% [4]. - As of May 16, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 820,000 tons, down 9% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 432,000 tons as of May 9, 2025, a decrease of 0.6% [4]. Raw Materials - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,667 RMB/ton as of May 16, 2025, an increase of 372 RMB/ton from May 9 [5]. - Domestic old scrap copper production in April 2025 was 88,000 tons, down 20% month-on-month and 22.5% year-on-year [5]. Smelting - In April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, a 0.3% increase month-on-month and a 14.3% increase year-on-year [6]. - The TC spot price as of May 16, 2025, was -43.03 USD/pound, reflecting a slight increase but remaining at the lowest level since September 2007 [6]. - From January to March 2025, the cumulative net import of electrolytic copper was 725,000 tons, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year [6]. Demand - The cable industry accounted for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with a cable enterprise operating rate of 83.39% as of May 15, 2025, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [7]. - The air conditioning sector, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw copper tube production of 189,000 tons in April 2025, down 1.8% month-on-month and 7.1% year-on-year [7]. - Copper rod production, which constitutes about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had a brass rod operating rate of 55.0% in April 2025, up 0.6 percentage points but down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Futures - As of May 16, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 180,000 lots, a decrease of 3.9% week-on-week, placing it at the 49th percentile since 1995 [8]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 22,000 lots as of May 13, 2025, down 0.8% week-on-week, at the 58th percentile since 1990 [8].

Core View - High tariffs still pose a threat to copper prices, and the market sentiment will improve after the tariff risk decreases. The tight supply and demand of copper concentrate and scrap copper are still the main factors boosting copper prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of decreased copper demand when the copper market gradually enters the off - season [2][5] Market Overview - On May 15, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 78,900 yuan/ton, reaching a maximum of 79,090 yuan/ton and a minimum of 77,860 yuan/ton, closing at 77,870 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14%. The trading volume for the day was 110,000 lots, with a reduction of 2,000 lots. The open interest was 187,000 lots, a reduction of 7,000 lots [3] Fundamental Situation Macroeconomic Aspect - Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson expects tariffs to slow the economy, and the inflation outlook is unclear [3] Supply Aspect - Mysteel statistics show that the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports in the current week was 897,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons compared to April 25. The TC dropped to 44 dollars/ton [3] Demand Aspect - In April 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 215,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.46% and a year - on - year increase of 4.97%. The domestic electrolytic copper foil production was 100,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.4%, including 39,300 tons of electronic circuit copper foil and 60,900 tons of lithium - ion copper foil. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper foil production in May will be 99,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. In April, the domestic copper tube production was 201,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,100 tons with an increase rate of 4.16%, and the comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87.27%, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. It is expected that the copper tube production in May will decrease to about 192,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be 83.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85%. In April, the actual production of domestic recycled copper rods was 203,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11% and a year - on - year increase of 1.81% [4] Inventory Aspect - On May 15, LME copper inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,650 tons, and the SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 10,466 tons to 60,535 tons [4] Future Outlook - After the tariff risk decreases, the market sentiment will improve. The tight supply and demand of copper concentrate and scrap copper are still the main factors boosting copper prices. Attention should be paid to the risk of decreased copper demand when the copper market gradually enters the off - season [5]