Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - The spot market premium in most regions is weakening, and downstream demand remains cautious due to high prices. Although overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, the surplus expectation of zinc ingots remains unchanged. There is still profit in smelting, and supply pressure persists. Consumption in May may face challenges, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$29.83/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,760 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 25 yuan/ton to 205 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 200 yuan/ton to 22,700 yuan/ton, with the premium rising by 25 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,740 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 25 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On May 21, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,530 yuan/ton and closed at 22,580 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 98,502 lots, an increase of 3,796 lots, and the position was 67,175 lots, a decrease of 9,455 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,510 - 22,675 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory - As of May 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 83,800 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the same period last week. As of May 21, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 157,875 tons, an increase of 1,150 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - In the spot market, inventories in Guangdong are continuously declining, while premiums in other regions are weakening. After the rebound of absolute prices, downstream buyers are still hesitant due to high prices and make inquiries and purchases based on rigid demand. Overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, but the surplus expectation of zinc ingots remains unchanged. Although the increase in TC is limited, smelting still has profits, and the supply pressure persists. Domestic imported ore inventory is sufficient, and domestic ore TC is still rising. Consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a sequential decline in consumption after May [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The Russian mine of Zijin plans to shut down in June, causing the futures price to remain strong, while the spot market is more sluggish, with imports having a large impact and spot premiums further declining. The fundamental data shows a weak trend, with TC still rising and supply pressure remaining high. The opening of the zinc ingot import window increases domestic supply pressure, and the previously low inventory that supported zinc prices shows signs of accumulation. If this trend continues, the downside space for zinc prices may open up. In the spot market, due to increased inventory and a shift towards a looser supply, the high spot premiums have significantly declined. The consumption side may face challenges in May, as the window for rush exports is approaching the end and there is an over - consumption situation, so consumption may weaken month - on - month after May. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$27.34 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 190 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium dropped by 85 yuan/ton to 245 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 260 yuan/ton to 22,890 yuan/ton, and the SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 295 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 220 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium dropped by 55 yuan/ton to 245 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On May 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,265 yuan/ton and closed at 22,710 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 219,108 lots, an increase of 48,548 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 104,941 lots, a decrease of 7,094 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 22,780 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 22,160 yuan/ton. [1] Inventory - As of May 12, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 85,500 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 14, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 167,050 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous trading day. [2]

Group 1: Report Core View - Zinc has short - term support [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Prices - The closing price of the main SHFE zinc contract was 22,710 yuan/ton, up 1.72% from the previous day; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,720.5 dollars/ton, up 1.93% [1] Trading Volumes - The trading volume of the main SHFE zinc contract was 219,108 lots, an increase of 48,548 lots; the LME zinc trading volume was 5,814 lots, a decrease of 210 lots [1] Open Interests - The open interest of the main SHFE zinc contract was 104,941 lots, a decrease of 7,094 lots; the LME zinc open interest was 223,075 lots, an increase of 3,036 lots [1] Premiums and Discounts - Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 245 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 27.34 dollars/ton, up 0.03 dollars/ton [1] Inventory - SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1,600 tons, unchanged; LME zinc inventory was 167,050 tons, a decrease of 900 tons [1] Other Prices - The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil including tax was 4,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1] Group 3: News - China's social financing increment in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 280 billion yuan, the M2 - M1 gap widened, and RMB deposits increased by 12.55 trillion yuan in the first four months [2] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - Market sentiment remains positive, but the spot market is significantly impacted by imported zinc ingots. The downstream prefers low - priced imported goods, leading to a further decline in spot premiums. The fundamental data shows a weakening trend, with TC still rising and supply pressure remaining high. The opening of the zinc ingot import window increases domestic supply pressure, and the previously low inventory that supported zinc prices shows signs of accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, the downside space for zinc prices may open. In the spot market, due to increased inventory and a shift to a more relaxed supply, the high spot premiums have significantly declined. Consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening after May [3]. 3. Summary of Related Data a. Spot and Futures Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is - 27.37 dollars/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped 70 yuan/ton to 22650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 100 yuan/ton to 330 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped 90 yuan/ton to 22630 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 120 yuan/ton to 310 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped 70 yuan/ton to 22620 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On 2025 - 05 - 13, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22530 yuan/ton and closed at 22325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 170560 lots, a decrease of 59350 lots from the previous day, and the position was 112035 lots, a decrease of 5995 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22135 yuan/ton and 22655 yuan/ton [1]. b. Inventory Data - As of 2025 - 05 - 12, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 8.55 million tons, an increase of 0.14 million tons from the same period last week. As of 2025 - 05 - 13, the LME zinc inventory was 167950 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from the previous trading day [2].