Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - The spot premium of zinc continues to weaken. With sufficient raw material reserves downstream, positive US macro - data, and rising commodity prices, pressure on zinc premium will continue. The supply surplus expectation remains unchanged in the second half of the year due to increasing import ore TC, rising zinc concentrate production, and high domestic smelting profits. Although downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, leading to a continuous inventory build - up trend [3]. 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$8.95 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,110 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,030 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 70 yuan/ton to 22,070 yuan/ton, with the premium unchanged at - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Futures Market - On July 17, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,975 yuan/ton and closed at 22,130 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 77,512 lots, down 11,957 lots from the previous day, and positions were 67,223 lots, down 11,088 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,970 yuan/ton and 22,170 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 93,500 tons, up 3,200 tons from last week. LME zinc inventory was 121,475 tons, up 125 tons from the previous day [1][2]. 4. Market Analysis - Spot market: The spot premium is weakening. Sufficient downstream raw material reserves and positive US macro - data will continue to pressure the zinc premium. - Cost side: Import ore TC is rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year - on - year increase in zinc concentrate production. High domestic smelting profits and sufficient raw material inventory of smelters lead to low procurement enthusiasm. - Consumption side: Downstream operating rates show resilience, but cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory is increasing, and the inventory build - up trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in absolute prices has not stimulated downstream continuous restocking, and the spot premium has further declined slightly. The import concentrate TC is still rising, and the domestic smelting profit is still substantial. The expectation of supply surplus in the second half of the year remains unchanged. Although the downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. The social inventory is showing a trend of accumulation, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year. The continuous increase in overseas inventory and rapid accumulation of social inventory will put pressure on zinc prices. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$9.95 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 22,050 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, with the premium unchanged at 30 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 110 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 110 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to -20 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On July 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,040 yuan/ton and closed at 22,045 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 89,469 lots, a decrease of 29,569 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 78,311 lots, a decrease of 5,993 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 22,065 yuan/ton and a low of 21,965 yuan/ton. [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared to the previous week. As of July 16, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 121,350 tons, an increase of 2,750 tons from the previous trading day. [2] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The decline in absolute prices has not stimulated downstream continuous restocking. The downstream raw material inventory is relatively sufficient, and the spot premium has further declined slightly. [3] - **Cost Side**: The import concentrate TC is still rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year-on-year increase in zinc concentrate production. The domestic smelting profit is still substantial, and the expectation of supply surplus in the second half of the year remains unchanged. The smelter's raw material inventory has increased to 29.7 days, with sufficient raw material reserves, and the enthusiasm for purchasing from the concentrate side is not high. [3] - **Consumption Side**: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and the overall consumption is not bad. However, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, and the social inventory is showing a trend of accumulation. [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is "short - term bullish" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - Zinc shows short - term strength, with a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook in the short term. This is reflected in the price movements and other market indicators of zinc [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,240 yuan/ton, up 0.88%, and the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,710 dollars/ton, up 1.10% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 168,109 lots, an increase of 9,578 lots, while the trading volume of LME zinc was 11,290 lots, a decrease of 3,422 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 135,638 lots, an increase of 5,773 lots, and the open interest of LME zinc was 210,940 lots, a decrease of 1,261 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 75 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 20.41 dollars/ton, up 5.59 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 6,473 tons, a decrease of 696 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 119,850 tons, a decrease of 3,025 tons [1] - **Other Products**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,205 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] News - No specific news content was summarized in the report, only the source "Wall Street Journal" was mentioned [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 1, with a range of [- 2,2]. A value of 1 indicates a "bullish" trend, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5] 2. Core View - Social inventory is continuously declining, spot supply is tight, and spot premiums are slightly rebounding, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor. Although overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, it does not change the expectation of zinc ingot surplus. TC will continue to rise in June. There is still profit in smelting at the current TC price, and the supply pressure remains. The strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level, but consumption may be tested in June and may weaken month - on - month after June. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$21.55/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 140 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the spot premium rose by 30 yuan/ton to 390 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 22,550 yuan/ton, and the spot premium rose by 20 yuan/ton to 370 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 130 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the spot premium rose by 40 yuan/ton to 390 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On May 26, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,155 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 22,185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 142,739 lots, an increase of 15,550 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 118,520 lots, an increase of 4,451 lots from the previous trading day. The highest price during the day was 22,300 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,085 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 26, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the same period last week. As of May 23, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 153,500 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Social inventory is continuously declining, leading to tight spot supply and a slight rebound in spot premiums, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. - **Supply**: Overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, but it does not change the expectation of zinc ingot surplus. TC will continue to rise in June. There is still profit in smelting at the current TC price, and domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, so there is no condition for TC to be lowered in the short term. - **Demand**: The strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level. However, due to the approaching end of the export rush window and possible over - consumption, consumption may weaken month - on - month after June [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - The spot market premium in most regions is weakening, and downstream demand remains cautious due to high prices. Although overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, the surplus expectation of zinc ingots remains unchanged. There is still profit in smelting, and supply pressure persists. Consumption in May may face challenges, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$29.83/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,760 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 25 yuan/ton to 205 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 200 yuan/ton to 22,700 yuan/ton, with the premium rising by 25 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,740 yuan/ton, with the premium falling by 25 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On May 21, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,530 yuan/ton and closed at 22,580 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 98,502 lots, an increase of 3,796 lots, and the position was 67,175 lots, a decrease of 9,455 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,510 - 22,675 yuan/ton [1]. Inventory - As of May 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 83,800 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the same period last week. As of May 21, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 157,875 tons, an increase of 1,150 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - In the spot market, inventories in Guangdong are continuously declining, while premiums in other regions are weakening. After the rebound of absolute prices, downstream buyers are still hesitant due to high prices and make inquiries and purchases based on rigid demand. Overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, but the surplus expectation of zinc ingots remains unchanged. Although the increase in TC is limited, smelting still has profits, and the supply pressure persists. Domestic imported ore inventory is sufficient, and domestic ore TC is still rising. Consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a sequential decline in consumption after May [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The Russian mine of Zijin plans to shut down in June, causing the futures price to remain strong, while the spot market is more sluggish, with imports having a large impact and spot premiums further declining. The fundamental data shows a weak trend, with TC still rising and supply pressure remaining high. The opening of the zinc ingot import window increases domestic supply pressure, and the previously low inventory that supported zinc prices shows signs of accumulation. If this trend continues, the downside space for zinc prices may open up. In the spot market, due to increased inventory and a shift towards a looser supply, the high spot premiums have significantly declined. The consumption side may face challenges in May, as the window for rush exports is approaching the end and there is an over - consumption situation, so consumption may weaken month - on - month after May. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$27.34 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 190 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium dropped by 85 yuan/ton to 245 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 260 yuan/ton to 22,890 yuan/ton, and the SMM Guangdong zinc spot premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 295 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 220 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin zinc spot premium dropped by 55 yuan/ton to 245 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On May 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,265 yuan/ton and closed at 22,710 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 219,108 lots, an increase of 48,548 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 104,941 lots, a decrease of 7,094 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 22,780 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 22,160 yuan/ton. [1] Inventory - As of May 12, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 85,500 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons compared to the same period last week. As of May 14, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 167,050 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous trading day. [2]

Group 1: Report Core View - Zinc has short - term support [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Prices - The closing price of the main SHFE zinc contract was 22,710 yuan/ton, up 1.72% from the previous day; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,720.5 dollars/ton, up 1.93% [1] Trading Volumes - The trading volume of the main SHFE zinc contract was 219,108 lots, an increase of 48,548 lots; the LME zinc trading volume was 5,814 lots, a decrease of 210 lots [1] Open Interests - The open interest of the main SHFE zinc contract was 104,941 lots, a decrease of 7,094 lots; the LME zinc open interest was 223,075 lots, an increase of 3,036 lots [1] Premiums and Discounts - Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 245 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 27.34 dollars/ton, up 0.03 dollars/ton [1] Inventory - SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1,600 tons, unchanged; LME zinc inventory was 167,050 tons, a decrease of 900 tons [1] Other Prices - The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil including tax was 4,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1] Group 3: News - China's social financing increment in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 280 billion yuan, the M2 - M1 gap widened, and RMB deposits increased by 12.55 trillion yuan in the first four months [2] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - Market sentiment remains positive, but the spot market is significantly impacted by imported zinc ingots. The downstream prefers low - priced imported goods, leading to a further decline in spot premiums. The fundamental data shows a weakening trend, with TC still rising and supply pressure remaining high. The opening of the zinc ingot import window increases domestic supply pressure, and the previously low inventory that supported zinc prices shows signs of accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, the downside space for zinc prices may open. In the spot market, due to increased inventory and a shift to a more relaxed supply, the high spot premiums have significantly declined. Consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening after May [3]. 3. Summary of Related Data a. Spot and Futures Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is - 27.37 dollars/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped 70 yuan/ton to 22650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 100 yuan/ton to 330 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped 90 yuan/ton to 22630 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 120 yuan/ton to 310 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped 70 yuan/ton to 22620 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On 2025 - 05 - 13, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22530 yuan/ton and closed at 22325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 170560 lots, a decrease of 59350 lots from the previous day, and the position was 112035 lots, a decrease of 5995 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22135 yuan/ton and 22655 yuan/ton [1]. b. Inventory Data - As of 2025 - 05 - 12, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 8.55 million tons, an increase of 0.14 million tons from the same period last week. As of 2025 - 05 - 13, the LME zinc inventory was 167950 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from the previous trading day [2].