Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index surged by 4.8%, closing at 47,944.76 points, while the Topix index rose by 3.1% to 3,226.06 points, both reaching historical closing highs [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased by 2%, reaching 150.43, marking the highest level since August 1 [3] Political Developments - Newly elected Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president, Sanae Takaichi, supports expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, raising concerns about increased bond supply and lowering expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike this month [4][5] - Takaichi's election is expected to positively impact the Japanese stock market while putting pressure on the yen and long-term government bonds [6][7] Economic Indicators - Japan's bond market is experiencing volatility, with the 40-year government bond yield rising by 14 basis points to 3.52%, driven by concerns over future fiscal expansion [8] - A report indicates that 3,024 food items in Japan are expected to increase in price in October, following a previous increase of 4,225 items in April [9] Challenges Ahead - Japan faces multiple pressures, including high inflation, a declining population, and economic recession, which complicate the political landscape and stability [8][10] - The manufacturing sector continues to show signs of contraction, with the September PMI at 48.4, indicating ongoing challenges in economic activity [9]

Market Reaction - The victory of Sanae Takaichi in the LDP presidential election is interpreted as a signal for the potential return of "Abenomics," leading to a rapid market revaluation[4] - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 4%, marking the largest single-day increase in months[5] - The Japanese yen depreciated by 1.5% against the US dollar, approaching the psychological level of 150, and hit a historical low against the euro[5] Bond Market Impact - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds soared by 14 basis points to 3.52%, reflecting expectations of increased fiscal spending[5] - The bond market faces pressure due to anticipated government debt issuance, which could lead to a sell-off if not managed with a safety net[10] Economic Policy Outlook - Takaichi emphasized prioritizing inflation control, proposing increased subsidies to local governments and potentially lowering consumption tax[5] - Her stance against interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan reinforces market expectations for continued accommodative monetary policy[4] Global Market Dynamics - The interplay between Japanese and US monetary policies is injecting new momentum into global risk assets, benefiting equities and emerging markets[10] - The US dollar's trajectory is complicated; while the yen's weakness supports the dollar, rising global risk appetite diminishes the dollar's appeal as a safe haven[10] Investment Strategy - Investors are adjusting positions in anticipation of fiscal stimulus, favoring high-dividend and high-yield assets while navigating a complex selection of options[11]

Market Reaction - The Japanese capital market experienced significant volatility following the election of high-profile candidate Takashi Hayashi, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 2063.93 points, a 4.51% increase, reaching a historic high of 47833.43 points [1][4] - The market's reaction aligns with expectations, as Hayashi's policies are seen as a continuation of Abenomics, favoring aggressive fiscal policies that drive capital into the stock market [1][4] Currency and Bond Market Impact - Following Hayashi's victory, the Japanese yen weakened significantly, dropping 1.5% against the US dollar and nearing the critical level of 150, while the yen also hit a historical low against the euro [4] - Analysts predict that the yen may depreciate to the range of 150-160 against the dollar, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes will likely slow down [4][5] - The bond market also reacted sharply, with the yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds rising by 14 basis points to 3.52%, driven by concerns over future fiscal expansion [4][5] Economic Challenges Ahead - Hayashi's administration is expected to face significant economic challenges, including persistent inflation affecting the living standards of Japanese citizens and increasing policy uncertainty [5][6] - There is skepticism regarding Hayashi's ability to effectively address high prices and economic strategies, as candidates did not present compelling economic policies during the election [6][7] US-Japan Relations - Hayashi's approach to US relations remains unclear, raising concerns about how she will navigate trade agreements and political risks associated with the US [7] - The existing US-Japan trade agreement, which reduces tariffs on Japanese imports, poses challenges for Japanese companies to maintain profitability amidst high tariffs [7]

2025年10月4日(周六)，日本执政党自由民主党（以下简称"自民党"）将进行总裁（党魁）选举。我们开启了"25年日本自民党总裁选举"系 列报告，目前已发布《 25年日本自民党总裁选举#1：石破首相辞职 》、《 25年日本自民党总裁选举#2：选举流程与日本资产季节性 》、 《 25年日本自民党总裁选举#3：候选人小泉进次郎 》，今后对该事件持续跟踪。2021年自民党总裁选举时，我们曾发表过研究报告，详情 参考《 日本自民党总裁选举：背景、预测与影响 》。2024年自民党总裁选举时，我们发布过7篇报告记录选举的前因后果，详情参考《 24 年日本自民党总裁选举系列报告 》。 本文着重介绍自民党总裁选举的有力候选人之一的高市早苗(TAKAICHI Sanae)。 点击小程序查看报告原文 结论： 我们认为高市早苗为"安倍经济学"的坚定继承者，在经济金融领域的政策中带有"希望货币宽松、日元贬值、财政扩张"的偏好。 我们 认为若高市当选，各类日本资产的价格波动方向或与"安倍经济学交易"基本一致，或会发生日元贬值、日股上升、日债利率平缓上升的走势， 但是从变化幅度来看，考虑到2025年的日本已经同2012年发生了明显的转变 ...