日元大幅贬值的原因之一是市场担心高市当选首相可能干预日本央行决策、阻止央行加息、延缓货币政 策正常化步伐。去年秋天竞选自民党总裁时，高市就曾指责日本央行加息是"愚蠢行为"。当选自民党总 裁后，高市明确表示,"无论是财政政策还是货币政策，必须承担责任的都是日本政府"，央行只考虑和 实施最佳货币政策措施。 日本媒体和专家纷纷表示，鉴于政局不稳、政权更迭等因素，日本央行在10月底货币政策会议上决定加 息的可能性大幅下降。这些分析和预期进一步助长了日元贬值趋势。 近年来，日本物价持续上涨。根据总务省公布的数据，截至今年8月，日本核心消费价格指数（CPI） 连续48个月同比上升。今年1月至7月，核心CPI涨幅连续7个月保持在3%以上。应对物价上涨已成为日 本朝野各党最重视的议题。日本媒体和专家普遍认为，在物价高企局面下，如果高市采取"安倍经济 学"式的扩张性财政和金融政策，恐将推动物价进一步上涨。 高市21日在记者会上再次强调，为应对物价上涨，新政府将迅速推动汽油税和柴油税下调。此外，政府 将出台政策强化对困难中小企业、医疗护理机构的援助，扩大对地方政府的转移支付，通过减税和扩大 开支等积极财政政策应对通胀、提振经济。 ...

Group 1 - The election of Sanna Takichi as Japan's new Prime Minister has led to market speculation about a potential "Abenomics 2.0" revival, which previously resulted in a significant rise in the Nikkei 225 index [1][2] - Japan's September exports showed a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, ending a four-month decline, although it fell short of the expected 4.6% [1] - The Nikkei 225 index has seen a nearly 15% increase since the resignation of former Prime Minister Shishiro, outperforming the S&P 500's 3.9% gain during the same period [2][3] Group 2 - High expectations for Takichi's economic policies include expansionary fiscal measures, collaboration between the government and the Bank of Japan, and a focus on technological innovation [2][3] - Concerns about the stability of the new government and the implementation of Takichi's policies have led to profit-taking in the stock market, with significant declines in defense and technology sector stocks [3][4] - The newly formed coalition government faces challenges in passing budgets and legislation due to a lack of majority in the House of Representatives, which may hinder policy implementation [3][4] Group 3 - The Japanese yen has come under pressure due to expectations of large-scale fiscal spending and monetary stimulus, complicating the path for potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4][5] - Market speculation indicates a reduced likelihood of an interest rate hike in October, with current odds at approximately 9%, while December's odds have risen to about 50% [5][6] - Despite a slight rebound, the yen remains near a six-day low against the dollar, reflecting ongoing market concerns [6]

Market Overview - The report from Huatai Securities indicates a potential return to "high market trading" in the short term, contingent on whether the Bank of Japan's normalization of monetary policy is delayed [1] - The recent exit of the Komeito party from the ruling coalition temporarily caused a pullback in "high market trading," but the election of high-profile candidate Suga Yoshihide may lead to a resurgence in this trading pattern, characterized by rising Japanese stocks, increasing bond yields, and a depreciating yen [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The focus remains on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy normalization, particularly the statements expected from the October meeting [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the pressure for the Bank of Japan to normalize its monetary policy in the medium to long term remains significant [1] Inflation and Real Exchange Rate - Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has exceeded the 2% target for 37 consecutive months, resulting in significantly negative real interest rates persisting for an extended period [1] - There is an urgent need for the real exchange rate of the yen to appreciate, which could occur through a market-driven appreciation of the yen or via high inflation and rising asset prices if the government opts for an accommodative monetary policy [1] - The long-term impact of achieving "appreciation" through high inflation and asset price increases is expected to be more substantial [1]

Core Points - Japan's first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has been elected as the 104th Prime Minister after overcoming significant political challenges [2][5] - Takaichi's election has triggered a market phenomenon known as "Takaichi trade," characterized by a surge in the Nikkei 225 index and a decline in the yen [2][9] - The new administration will face numerous challenges, including a weak foundation within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and insufficient parliamentary seats [2][8] Political Landscape - Takaichi won the Prime Minister election with 237 votes, marking a significant political milestone [5] - The LDP's coalition with the Komeito party has collapsed, leading to a new alliance with the Japan Innovation Party to secure governance [6][8] - The coalition's stability is uncertain, as policy disagreements may arise, particularly regarding political funding reforms [7][8] Economic Policies - Takaichi aims to continue and strengthen "Abenomics," focusing on expansive fiscal and monetary policies, which she refers to as "Sanae economics" [10][11] - The market anticipates that her policies will inject momentum into the Japanese economy, particularly in strategic sectors like semiconductors and AI [10][11] - However, there are concerns about the long-term risks associated with increased national debt and potential inflationary pressures [11][12] Market Reactions - Following Takaichi's election, the Nikkei 225 index reached historical highs, reflecting investor optimism regarding her economic policies [9][10] - The yen has depreciated against the dollar, indicating market expectations of continued monetary easing [9][10] - Experts caution that the "Takaichi trade" may only be a short-term phenomenon, dependent on her ability to implement significant reforms and manage inflation [12]

日本首位女首相诞生。 当地时间10月21日，日本自民党总裁高市早苗在临时国会众议院和参议院首相指名选举中均胜出，当选 日本第104任首相。 上海市日本学会会长、上海对外经贸大学日本经济研究中心主任陈子雷也向21世纪经济报道记者表示， 维新会与自民党结盟能实现其政策目标的最大化，包括指定大阪为"副首都"的构想，废除企业和团体政 治献金等问题。 虽然在大选前夕，高市早苗已基本锁定胜局，但她的拜相之路颇为曲折。10月4日当选自民党总裁后， 高市早苗相继遭遇执政联盟破裂、被在野党联合狙击等困局。直至本月20日，自民党与日本维新会签署 了两党联合执政的协议文件，高市早苗获得维新会支持，才得以在首相指名选举中险中取胜。 由于高市早苗向来主张实施扩张性的财政政策，日本首相指名选举的消息还触发了日元弱、日股强 的"高市交易"。21日，日股继续狂飙，日经225指数盘中一度接近5万点，连续两日收盘创历史新高。与 此同时，日元兑美元继续呈现出缓慢下跌的态势。 在首相选举"涉险过关"后，接下来，高市早苗将不得不面临一系列严峻考验，包括如何应对自民党内根 基脆弱、国会席位不足、日本经济复苏仍缺乏动力等问题以及美国关税挑战等。自民党总裁 ...

记者丨胡慧茵 视频丨柳润瑛 日本首位女首相诞生。 当地时间10月21日，日本自民党总裁高市早苗在临时国会众议院和参议院首相指名选举中均胜 出，当选日本第104任首相。 编辑丨李莹亮 虽然在大选前夕，高市早苗已基本锁定胜局，但她的拜相之路颇为曲折。10月4日当选自民党 总裁后，高市早苗相继遭遇执政联盟破裂、被在野党联合狙击等困局。直至本月20日，自民党 与日本维新会签署了两党联合执政的协议文件，高市早苗获得维新会支持，才得以在首相指名 选举中险中取胜。 由于高市早苗向来主张实施扩张性的财政政策，日本首相指名选举的消息还触发了日元弱、日 股强的"高市交易"。 21日，日股继续狂飙，日经225指数盘中一度接近5万点，连续两日收盘 创历史新高。与此同时，日元兑美元继续呈现出缓慢下跌的态势。 在首相选举"涉险过关"后，接下来，高市早苗将不得不面临一系列严峻考验，包括如何应对自 民党内根基脆弱、国会席位不足、日本经济复苏仍缺乏动力等问题以及美国关税挑战等。自民 党总裁竞选期间，高市喊出"日本回来了"的口号。外界都在关注，她想带回一个怎样的日本， 还将带领日本走向何方。 图源：新华社 上海市日本学会会长、上海对外经贸大学日 ...

Core Points - Japan has elected its first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, who won the election on October 21, becoming the 104th Prime Minister of Japan [1][2] - Takaichi's election was marked by challenges, including a fractured ruling coalition and opposition from rival parties, but she secured support from the Japan Innovation Party [1][2] - The election results have led to a significant market reaction, with the Nikkei 225 index reaching historical highs, while the yen continues to depreciate against the dollar [1][6] Political Landscape - Takaichi's political stance is characterized by a strong conservative approach, closely aligned with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's policies, particularly in economic and security matters [2][7] - The coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party is seen as a strategic move to maintain political power and facilitate policy implementation in a context of reduced parliamentary majority [3][4] - The partnership is not without its challenges, as there are unresolved issues regarding political funding reforms, which could lead to tensions between the coalition partners [4][5] Economic Policies - Takaichi aims to continue and enhance "Abenomics," focusing on aggressive monetary easing and fiscal expansion, which she refers to as "Sanae Economics" [7][8] - The market has reacted positively to her proposed policies, anticipating increased government spending in key sectors like semiconductors, AI, and defense, which could stimulate economic growth [7][8] - However, there are concerns about the long-term sustainability of these policies, particularly regarding Japan's rising national debt and potential inflationary pressures [8][9] Market Reactions - The stock market has shown optimism, with the Nikkei 225 index hitting record highs, driven by expectations of Takaichi's expansionary fiscal policies [6][7] - The yen has depreciated against the dollar, reflecting market sentiment regarding the anticipated economic policies and their implications for inflation and currency stability [6][9] - Analysts caution that the current market enthusiasm may be short-lived if Takaichi faces significant obstacles in implementing her agenda due to her minority government status [9]

Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets are experiencing a broad rally, with a resurgence of the "everything is rising" trend, driven by easing trade tensions and strong third-quarter earnings reports [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. stocks are once again challenging historical highs, with a notable focus on technology stocks, particularly Apple [3]. - The MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) has reached a new high not seen in over four and a half years, with Japan and South Korea's markets also hitting record levels [4]. - The Nikkei 225 index approached the 50,000-point mark, while the Korean Composite Stock Price Index surged over 2%, marking its sixth consecutive day of new highs [4]. - Hong Kong and A-shares have seen significant rebounds, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3,900 points and trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 98 consecutive days [4]. Group 2: Political Developments - The recent election of Fumio Kishida as Japan's Prime Minister has reduced political uncertainty, contributing to market optimism [6][8]. - The market's expectations have shifted from merely anticipating inflationary policies to focusing on political stability and economic reforms under the new government [10]. Group 3: Trade Relations - Positive sentiment in the markets is also bolstered by ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and South Korea, with expectations of a trade memorandum being signed during President Trump's upcoming visit [12][14]. - Trump's recent comments about a potential fair trade agreement with China have further enhanced market confidence regarding U.S.-China relations [17][18]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - UBS has upgraded the global stock market rating to "attractive," raising the global earnings growth forecast for 2025 from 6.5% to 8% [27]. - The firm continues to favor the technology sector as its "global preferred industry," particularly highlighting Chinese tech stocks as highly attractive [27][28].

日股延续强势开盘上涨1%续创历史新高。野村证券分析指出，"高市交易"的内涵正在演变，从单纯的 通货再膨胀预期，转向对政府稳定性和经济改革的期待。而日本新政府的支持率将是市场走势的关键。 只有高市内阁和自民党维持高支持率，股市的上涨才能持续。 "高市交易"的新形态 根据野村证券策略师Naka Matsuzawa在10月20日发布的一份报告，市场对高市早苗的预期正在发生 深刻变化。最初的"高市交易"建立在对通货再膨胀政策、弱势日元以及由此受益的出口导向型股票的 简单预期之上。 而现在，这一交易逻辑正演变为"新形态"。野村的报告指出，新的市场预期更多地建立在对一个"稳定 政府"和"经济结构性改革"的希望上，这使得市场的关注点转向了与内需相关的股票。 "高市交易"正从单纯基于通货再膨胀措施的预期，演变为对稳定执政和经济改革的预期。 这种转变意味着，市场的兴奋情绪不太可能无限期持续。报告认为，在没有大规模通货再膨胀措施的 情况下，要继续支撑当前高企的股票估值将并非易事。市场的"庆祝情绪"可能会持续到高市早苗政府 10月21日，日股延续强势开盘上涨1%，报49675.43点，再度刷新历史高点。日本东证指数跟随高 开，亦逼 ...

（原标题：高市早苗基本锁定胜局，"日元弱、日股强"交易卷土重来） （资料图） 据央视新闻报道，截至日本当地时间10月20日傍晚，日本自民党总裁高市早苗与日本维新会代表吉村洋 文在东京举行会谈，并签署了关于两党联合执政的协议文件。 基于此，外界预测，两党就联合执政签署协议后，高市早苗将在10月21日举行的国会首相指名选举中获 得维新会支持，大概率将出任日本首相并组建内阁。 引发关注的是，支持鸽派立场的高市早苗若当选首相，将对日本市场产生何种影响？ 20日，日经225指数开盘即上涨，盘中涨幅持续飙升，收盘突破49000点，收于历史最高位。东证指数同 样收高，收报2.46%，报3248.45点。 日股高开高走，日元却表现弱势。美元兑日元日内一度向上触及151，之后美元涨势回落。截至北京时 间晚上7点，日元兑美元汇率为1美元兑150.69日元。 中国国际问题研究院亚太所特聘研究员项昊宇向21世纪经济报道记者分析称，今天"日股涨、日元跌"的 市场表现是对日本政局形势明朗化的反应。他进一步表示，因为自民党与日本维新会达成联合执政共 识，高市早苗大概率当选日本首相，这一预期给市场吃下了一粒定心丸。此外，高市被视为 "安倍经 ...