本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月23日瑞银称金价回升巩固强势地位，多因素支撑上涨】瑞银策略师指出，金价自10月底急跌后迅 速回升，再次巩固今年表现最强资产之一的地位。 过去一周金价上涨，一是因新一波地缘政治不安， 突显黄金避险工具角色；二是美国利率环境变化，实质利率降至2022年中以来最低，市场降息预期支撑 金价，利率下行提升贵金属配置意愿。 第三个支撑因素是央行与投资人持续大量买盘。瑞银表示，二 者对黄金需求接近历史高点，预估今年全球央行黄金购买量达900至950公吨。 ...

原以为圣诞节前期的市场会比较寂静，但周一的开盘表现直接让市场惊掉下巴，在地缘局势得影响下，周一黄金出现了单边的大涨空间，从4336到目前最高 4485，单日单边走出超150美金力度，再一次刷新了单日的上涨幅度。其实，山海一直强调，今年绝对是黄金看涨得趋势年，一定要顺势做多，不猜顶，不 做空，而12月得行情截至到目前为止，一直是震荡多头趋势的高位震荡走势，只有在本周开盘，周一才走出有效的单边大涨，所以，多头来的太快，太凶， 很难得跟上，错过了这波多头得力度，很可惜。接下来还是正常的看待现在的市场动态变化，如果是继续上涨就等回踩做多，如果是有见顶信号，再尝试做 空。 地缘局势影响黄金避险再度升温，12月阶段性的震荡结束，接下来的单边力度可能会延续到26年开年。大家可以回顾一下，其实12月22号之前，黄金一直在 多头趋势中走高位震荡，山海之前强调过，注意趋势的突破性，也要注意随时的调整空间，整个12月都比较符合预期。但周一开盘，黄金直接走出大单边， 大力度，一天的上涨一点调整都没有，所以，很难跟上这波突破性的行情。现在黄金新高，可以肯定是顺势做多行情，但又何尝不会在这里恐高呢。距离欧 美圣诞节也来越接近了，按道理市 ...

周一(12月22日)随着市场对美国进一步降息的预期升温以及避险需求强劲，黄金价格首次突破4,400美元 关口，白银也加入涨势，创下历史新高。截至发稿，现货黄金上涨1.7%，至4,411.01美元，稍早一度触 及4,420.01美元的历史高点后小幅回落。现货白银上涨2.5%，触及69.44美元，刷新纪录。随着假日季临 近，黄金和白银交易员并未放慢脚步。进入新的一周，贵金属继续强势上攻，金价已飙升至4,400美元 上方，刷新历史新高，涨势可谓势不可挡。此前已多次提到，展望明年，黄金具备多重利好因素。然而 从目前走势来看，多头似乎并不愿等待，而是继续追逐新的突破，以把握下一轮上行空间。 今年以来，黄金累计上涨67%，屡创新高，并首次突破3,000美元和4,000美元两大关口，有望录得自 1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。与此同时，白银年内涨幅高达138%，大幅跑赢黄金，主要受强劲的投资 资金流入以及持续的供应受限支撑。作为传统的避险资产，黄金一直受到地缘政治和贸易紧张局势加 剧、各国央行持续买入以及对明年降息预期的支撑。美元走软也提供了额外助力，使黄金对海外买家而 言更为便宜。尽管美联储释放出谨慎信号，市场目前仍计入了 ...

12月22日，宏观经济因素是推动黄金价格的核心动力。11月份美国消费者价格指数同比上涨2.7%，远 低于经济学家预期的3.1%，这一数据进一步助长了市场对美联储降息的乐观情绪。同时，美国劳工部 报告显示，11月份失业率升至4.6%，为2021年9月以来最高水平，这凸显了劳动力市场的疲软，强化了 宽松政策的必要性。 责任编辑：陈平 然而，美联储内部对降息的分歧也为黄金走势增添了不确定性。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在上周五表示， 不存在进一步降息的紧迫性，他认为当前政策已处于合适水平，重点是支撑就业并引导通胀回至2%目 标。相反，美联储理事米兰重申应继续降息，以抵消就业风险。这种政策分歧在债市中体现为收益率攀 升，上周五两年期公债收益率上涨2.6个基点至3.486%，十年期收益率上涨3.5个基点至4.151%。日本央 行加息至0.75%的举措也导致全球债市疲软，进一步推高了美国收益率曲线，但这反而突出了黄金的避 险作用，因为更高的收益率往往会压制股票等风险资产，转而利好黄金。 此外，房地产市场数据也间接影响黄金走势。11月美国成屋销售环比小幅增长0.5%，折合年率413万 户，但经济不确定性和高抵押贷款利率抑制了需求， ...

全球金融市场迎来重要波动，美国最新经济数据释放关键信号，11月消费者价格指数（CPI）意外低于 市场预期，同时失业率攀升至阶段性高位，受此影响，纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格再创历史新高，市 场对美联储货币政策转向的预期进一步升温。 具体数据显示，美国劳工部公布的11月CPI同比上涨2.7%，显著低于经济学家普遍预期的3.1%，这一增 速为2021年初以来最低水平；核心CPI（剔除食品和能源价格）同比上涨2.6%，较9月的3.0%大幅放 缓，显示通胀压力持续缓解。与此同时，美国11月失业率意外升至4.6%，触及2021年9月以来最高水 平，就业市场呈现边际疲软态势。数据出炉后，金融市场迅速反应，美元指数短线下挫至98.167，10年 期美国国债收益率下跌2.2个基点至4.13%，而纽约金期货价格短线上扬，最高触及4343美元/盎司的历 史新高。 消息面上，近期宏观经济数据持续回暖，叠加政策面的积极引导，为市场提供了支撑。同时，海外市场 隔夜表现平稳，也为A股开盘营造了相对友好的外部环境。机构分析指出，当前市场处于震荡修复阶 段，短期关注政策发力方向及业绩确定性较强的板块，中长期可布局高景气赛道中的优质龙头企业。 ...

Group 1 - The focus of the market is on the key U.S. economic data to be released on December 16, which includes the non-farm payroll report that was delayed due to the federal government shutdown [3] - Spot gold initially rose over 1% during the day but later saw a significant reduction in gains as some investors took profits, indicating a decrease in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset due to easing geopolitical tensions [1][3] - International oil prices continued to decline, primarily driven by strong expectations of a global oil supply surplus by 2026, despite some support from disruptions in Venezuelan oil exports due to tensions with the U.S. [3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market experienced a broad decline as investors awaited a series of key economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls, retail sales, and inflation reports, to assess the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's future policy direction [3] - Tesla's stock price increased as CEO Elon Musk announced that the company is testing driverless taxi services, indicating potential advancements in autonomous vehicle technology [3]

Core Viewpoint - The main macro factors supporting gold prices in 2025 are expected to continue into 2026, including global de-dollarization, U.S. fiscal pressures, overall macro uncertainty, central bank gold purchases, physical gold ETF demand, and Tether's procurement of gold [1] Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - Despite limited room for real interest rate declines, gold remains the only true safe-haven asset in the market [1] - Gold prices are projected to maintain a range-bound pattern in 2026, which is still positive for the industry [1] Group 2: Mining Stocks Analysis - The firm maintains an optimistic outlook for gold mining stocks in 2026, anticipating that mining companies will expand profit margins and generate higher annual free cash flow [1] - There is currently no significant cost inflation pressure observed in the mining sector [1] Group 3: Preferred Mining Companies - Barrick Gold Corporation is identified as the top pick among large-cap gold mining stocks [1] - Alamos Gold is viewed as having significant upside potential, possessing the highest quality asset portfolio among mid-cap miners [1] - Royal Gold is considered undervalued, with potential for valuation recovery in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold sector is experiencing significant activity, with COMEX gold prices surpassing 4270 and gold ETFs showing notable increases, driven by heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen dramatically to over 80%, with support from several Fed officials, including Christopher Waller, who advocates for a more flexible policy starting in 2026 [1][2]. - The latest Fed Watch data indicates a probability of over 87% for a rate cut in December [1]. Geopolitical Tensions - The outlook for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remains uncertain, with recent discussions in Geneva yielding a modified plan that has faced resistance from Russia [1][2]. - Tensions between China and Japan continue, with China urging Japan to take its demands seriously, while former President Trump has indicated potential actions against Venezuela, contributing to rising geopolitical risks that favor gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Investment Opportunities - The combination of a potential Fed rate cut, increasing geopolitical uncertainties, and a global trend towards de-dollarization is expected to provide ongoing support for gold prices [2]. - Investors may consider gradually accumulating positions in gold ETFs (518800) and gold stock ETFs (517400) during market dips [2].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have recently released dovish signals, significantly boosting rate cut expectations, with an 82.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [1] - Gold prices are expected to show strong resilience around the $4000 per ounce mark, as the market has fully priced in the delayed rate cut timing [1] - The recent strong non-farm employment data and persistent inflation indicators have temporarily suppressed the market's certainty regarding the Fed's December rate cut [1] Group 2 - The macro environment is expected to remain favorable for gold prices through 2026, driven by U.S. tax cuts and rate cuts, leading to a new round of global easing [2] - The valuation of A-share gold stocks has recovered to around 15 times PE, indicating good investment value despite not following gold price increases above $4000 per ounce [2] - The potential for economic turmoil in 2026, coupled with the ongoing debate about AI's impact on the economy, suggests that gold's hedging value will continue to be significant [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Russian Central Bank has begun selling physical gold reserves to address budget deficits, raising concerns about the potential end of the current gold bull market as global central banks continue to purchase gold aggressively [1][3][5]. Group 1: Russian Central Bank Actions - The Russian Central Bank started selling gold reserves in late November 2025 to cover a budget deficit exacerbated by frozen foreign exchange reserves due to sanctions [1][3]. - Russia's oil and gas revenues have decreased by 16.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year, leading to a fiscal deficit of 3.69 trillion rubles, nearing the annual limit [3]. - The sale of gold is a response to the inability to access approximately 300 billion euros of foreign reserves, with about 200 billion euros held in European clearing banks [1][3]. Group 2: Global Gold Market Dynamics - Despite Russia's gold sales, global central banks are expected to increase gold purchases, with Goldman Sachs predicting an average monthly purchase of 80 tons from Q4 2025 to 2026 [5]. - In the first half of 2025, global central banks net purchased 415 tons of gold, with 95% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [5][7]. - The current gold price has risen over 50% since 2025, influenced by both central bank buying and the recent news of Russia's gold sales, which may prompt some investors to take profits [5][21]. Group 3: Domestic Gold Demand in Russia - Domestic gold demand in Russia is increasing, with citizens purchasing approximately 282 tons of gold over the past four years, and an expected increase of 62.2 tons in 2025 [3][8]. - The Russian government has eliminated VAT on retail gold purchases to stimulate domestic demand, helping sanctioned mining companies find new sales channels [3][8]. - The stability of the ruble has not been significantly affected by the Central Bank's gold sales, indicating a resilient domestic market [8]. Group 4: Broader Implications for Gold as an Asset - Geopolitical tensions and high global debt levels continue to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset and hedge against inflation [7][12]. - The liquidity and acceptance of gold as an international reserve asset remain unchanged, making it a crucial component of central bank reserves [21][30]. - Historical trends suggest that short-term market reactions to news may be smoothed by long-term trends, with central banks transitioning from net sellers to net buyers of gold post-2008 financial crisis [17][25].