-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-15 01-30 02-14 02-29 03-15 03-30 04-14 04-29 05-14 05-29 06-13 06-28 07-13 07-28 08-12 08-27 09-11 09-26 10-11 10-26 11-10 11-25 12-10 12-25 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦炭--基差 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03- ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overall fundamentals of the black industry remain weak this week, with supply improving and demand continuing to slow down. There is a possibility of the industry being dragged down by the weakening of finished products and returning to a downward trend. The strategy is to maintain a short - selling mindset, add short positions moderately on rebounds, and hold them in the medium - term [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Black commodity futures stabilized overall with mixed gains and losses on June 13. The closing price of rebar was 2969 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3082 yuan/ton, down 0.26%; the main contract of iron ore closed at 703 yuan/ton; and the coking coal and coke contracts closed slightly higher [1]. Market Analysis - Supply: The global iron ore shipping volume increased by 79.4 tons week - on - week to 3510.4 tons, reaching an 11 - month high and the highest level in the same period in recent years. The domestic arrival volume also rebounded significantly. Non - mainstream ore shipments have been rising rapidly, but the year - on - year decline in non - Australian and non - Brazilian shipments is difficult to reverse on a monthly basis [1]. - Demand: Entering the off - season, terminal demand has been continuously weakening. The total demand for the five major steel products decreased by 19.53 tons week - on - week to 882.17 tons, reaching a one - month low and the lowest level in the same period over the years. Due to the continuous decline in coal prices, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills slightly decreased to 58.44% this week. Steel mills were not active in reducing production. The blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.15% to 83.41%, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.07% to 90.58%. The daily average pig iron output was 241.61 tons, only 0.19 tons less than last week but 2.3 tons more than the same period last year, indicating that iron ore demand still has support [1]. - Inventory: The daily average port iron ore shipment volume decreased by 13.81 tons to 315.25 tons, reaching a nearly 3 - month low. With the concentrated arrival of foreign ores, the weekly inventory of imported ores at 47 ports in the country increased by 102.83 tons to 14503.14 tons, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 6.66%, reaching a one - month high. In addition, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased by 108.50 tons to 8798.68 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio rose to 29.9 days [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the price stabilizes from the decline, or trade based on the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].

债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 06 日 近期焦煤上涨对债市是否有影响？ ——债券市场专题研究 核心观点 本轮黑色系商品期货价格走强在技术面及基本面上均以消息面驱动的反弹为主，不构 成趋势性反转，因此对债市影响有限。 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 ❑ 从基本面及技术面如何理解焦煤主力合约价格异动上涨？ 本轮黑色系商品期货价格走强更多或为下行趋势中的反弹而非反转，基本面来看 黑色系商品多数仍然供需格局偏弱，现货价格处于中期下行趋势中。从技术面来 看，领涨的焦煤品种主力合约在本轮反弹中出现的信号强于钢铁、铁矿石等品种， 但总体来看趋势仍旧偏弱，做多仍需谨慎入场。 ❑ 本轮焦煤主力合约价格异动上涨对债市影响如何？ 对应债券市场，由于黑色系商品期货总体周期性价格走势较为一致，而黑色系商 品期货价格走强多数情形下同样会对债市形成压制。但综合前述分析，本轮黑色 系商品期货价格走强在技术面及基本面上均以消息面驱动的反弹为主，不构成趋 势性反转，因此对债市影响有限，对债市的关注点仍然应该落脚在资金面、央行 操作、中美谈判进展等方面。 ❑ 风险提示 技术分析具有一定局限性；宏观经济政策出 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Today, the black - series commodity futures rose as a whole. The double - coking futures rebounded sharply after significant declines, with coking coal rising over 7%. However, the market's core contradiction lies in the dual pressures of weakened off - season demand and cost collapse, and the fundamentals of double - coking are difficult to improve in the short term. It is not recommended to buy at the bottom, and previous short positions at low levels should exit and wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - The black - series commodity futures rose overall. The rebar closed at 2974 yuan/ton, up 1.57%; the hot - rolled coil closed at 3097 yuan/ton, up 1.61%; the iron ore closed at 704.5 yuan/ton; the double - coking futures rebounded sharply, with coking coal rising over 7% [1] Market Analysis - The double - coking futures hit a nearly 9 - year low. With the intensification of capital game sentiment and the expected reduction in Mongolia's exports, bulls increased positions last night, and short - covering this afternoon further pushed up the prices. The main contract of coking coal once soared to 772.5 points, and coke reached 1375 points, driving up related industrial products. The coking coal 2509 contract finally rose over 7%, and the trading volume increased by 813,000 lots to 1.429 million lots, a record high. The main logic of coal bears is the difficult - to - ease pattern of high supply and weak demand. Currently in the off - season of steel demand, steel demand is hard to improve significantly, reducing the demand for raw material procurement. Coke sales pressure is increasing, and there is an expectation of a third price cut. The coking coal market has poor purchasing sentiment, and coal mines face sales and inventory pressure [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a short - term shock approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Double - coking: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The market supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly, the market is in a clear downward trend, and the trading of coking coal and coke is further under pressure. A bearish view is taken on coking coal and coke, and there is no clear reversal driver [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Overview - On May 29, in the black - series commodity futures market, coking coal and coke continued to decline. The rebar closed at 2,978 yuan/ton, up 0.47%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,110 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the iron ore main contract closed at 707 yuan/ton [1]. Market Analysis - Currently in the off - season of steel demand, infrastructure steel demand has limited incremental effect, and construction in some cities is affected during the mid - and high - school entrance exams. The overall steel demand is difficult to improve significantly. Last week, the daily average hot metal output of 247 long - process steel mills decreased by 1.17 tons to 243.6 tons. Some steel mills controlled the arrival rhythm, reducing the raw material procurement demand, and the second - round price cut of coke in the production area has been fully implemented. There is an expectation of a third - round price cut [1]. - Last week, the profits of coking enterprises tightened, and some areas turned to losses. Coking enterprises mainly focused on active sales, but due to the obvious downward market trend, strong supply and weak demand, most coking enterprises had difficulties in sales, with inventories at medium - to - high levels, making it difficult to support prices [1]. - Due to the tightened profits of coking enterprises and the decline in steel prices, the procurement demand of coking and steel enterprises for raw coal is further under pressure. The continuous high production and supply of coking coal have led to inventory backlogs at mines. This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples reached a two - month low, but the raw coal inventory increased by 16.3 tons to 641.1 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 25.5 tons to 473 tons, both hitting new highs. The online auction of coking coal had poor results, most coal mines lowered the starting prices, and the phenomenon of auction failures did not improve, and the price decline of raw coal was hard to stop [1]. Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile view in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation view in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Today, black commodity futures declined overall. With no increase in demand, steel mills are not actively reducing production due to slight profits. The contradiction between supply and demand may become prominent, increasing pressure on prices. The variable lies in whether new projects will start during the off - season, leading to an inverse - seasonal increase in demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures declined overall. The closing price of rebar was 2964 yuan/ton, down 0.77%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil was 3100 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the closing price of iron ore was 698.5 yuan/ton; and coking coal and coke continued to decline [1]. Market Analysis - **Demand Side**: The recovery of real - estate sales lacks sustainability, and investment and new construction have continued to decline significantly, dragging down domestic steel demand. As of May 27, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.87%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.45%. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 60.48%, while that of housing construction projects remained flat at 50.8%. Heavy rainfall in the south may also affect demand [1]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, the profitability rate of 247 long - process steel mills increased to 59.74%, a half - year high. However, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.17 tons to 243.6 tons, with the year - on - year increase narrowing to 2.87%. The profitability of electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. On May 27, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3292 yuan/ton, with an average profit of - 126 yuan/ton and a valley - electricity profit of - 22 yuan/ton, which may dampen production enthusiasm [1]. Investment Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - **Rebar**: Investors are advised to take a volatile view in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Investors are advised to expect high - level consolidation in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1].

Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Report [1] - Date: April 15, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On April 14, the main contract of rebar futures RB2510 maintained a volatile trend; the main contract of hot-rolled coil futures HC2510 showed a slightly stronger volatile trend; the main contract of stainless steel futures SS2505 also showed a slightly stronger volatile trend [6]. - The KDJ indicators of the daily lines of RB2510 and HC2510 contracts showed a divergent upward trend, and the green bars of the MACD of the daily lines of these two contracts were narrowing [9]. | Contract Code | Previous Closing Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | Capital Inflow/Outflow | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 | 3131 | 3130 | 3145 | 3118 | 3126 | 0.00% | 1,066,833 | 1,705,840 | 40,463 | 0.83 | | HC2510 | 3242 | 3242 | 3264 | 3231 | 3242 | 0.22% | 476,725 | 1,230,789 | 33,250 | 0.75 | | SS2506 | 12765 | 12825 | 12860 | 12735 | 12805 | 0.87% | 132,926 | 127,087 | 8,119 | 0.76 | [5] 1.2 Spot Market Dynamics | Region | Shanghai | Hangzhou | Beijing | Guangzhou | Nanjing | Jinan | Tianjin | Chengdu | Xi'an | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar Aggregate Price (HRB400E: 20mm) | 3170 | 3180 | 3180 | 3460 | 3320 | 3350 | 3210 | 3280 | 3220 | | Rebar Price Change | 10 | 10 | 20 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 20 | 10 | 0 | | Hot-rolled Coil Aggregate Price (4.75mm) | 3270 | 3300 | 3350 | 3260 | 3300 | 3380 | 3240 | 3380 | 3420 | | Hot-rolled Coil Price Change | 20 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 0 | [9] 1.3 Outlook - Recently, the influence of macro-level disturbance factors has declined. After a rebound, the prices of domestic black commodity futures have maintained a volatile trend. - From a fundamental analysis, the crude steel output is at a high level. The weekly demand for the five major steel products has been lower than the same period last year for four consecutive weeks and is significantly lower than that in 2022 - 2023. - On the downstream side, real estate demand is sluggish, infrastructure growth has a slight increase, there is an increase in the automobile, shipbuilding, and machinery industries, and there are concerns about the significant decline in the growth rate of home appliance exports. - Looking ahead, the supply - demand fundamentals face great pressure, market confidence is generally insufficient, and prices are expected to face downward pressure with a weak trend [10]. 2. Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs, China exported 2742.9 million tons of steel from January to March. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early April, the social inventory of the five major steel products in 21 cities was 983 million tons, a decrease of 53 million tons or 5.1% from the previous month, with the inventory continuing to decline; an increase of 324 million tons or 49.2% from the beginning of the year; and a decrease of 325 million tons or 24.8% compared with the same period last year. - According to Mysteel, from April 7 - 13, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2617.9 million tons, an increase of 258.8 million tons from the previous week; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2525.5 million tons, an increase of 336.8 million tons from the previous week; and the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1026.9 million tons, a decrease of 58.5 million tons from the previous week. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 83.28%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 4.87 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily average pig iron output was 240.22 million tons, an increase of 1.49 million tons from the previous week. - According to SMM, Ansteel plans to overhaul a 3200m³ blast furnace at the end of April, with an expected overhaul time of 38 days and an average daily impact on pig iron output of about 0.8 million tons. - According to the China Coal Market Network, as of April 11, the inventory at Bohai Rim ports dropped to 2987.8 million tons, a decrease of 73 million tons from the beginning of April but still 713 million tons higher than the same period last year. Among them, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port dropped to 616 million tons, a decrease of 74 million tons from the beginning of the month and 116 million tons higher than the same period last year. - According to Mysteel, from April 7 - 13, 2025, the total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2434.8 million tons, an increase of 41.8 million tons from the previous week. The shipment volume from Australia was 1706.3 million tons, an increase of 47.1 million tons from the previous week, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1476.3 million tons, an increase of 23.2 million tons from the previous week. The shipment volume from Brazil was 728.5 million tons, a decrease of 5.4 million tons from the previous week. The total global iron ore shipment volume this period was 2907.7 million tons, a decrease of 14.2 million tons from the previous week [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures on the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major markets, the weekly output of the five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major cities, the blast furnace operating rate and ironmaking capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between the Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot prices and their May contracts [14][18][19][22][23][30]